We're now about 117 days into the year and markedly fewer home sales are coming together this year than last.

The graph above shows us that thus far this April buyers and sellers have signed 109 contracts for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- compared to 131 during the same timeframe last year.  This marks a 17% decline in contract activity when comparing April to April.

But let's stretch out the time horizon a bit... looking at the entire year to date...

When looking at the year thus far, we have seen 403 contracts signed this year, compared to 470 last year which equates to a 14% decline in contract activity.

What is driving this slower start to contract activity this year? 

Here are a few possible causes...

1.  Plenty of homeowners are still holding onto super low mortgage interest rates on their current homes and do not want to sell their homes, thus limiting inventory, thus limiting contract activity.

2.  After declining from April through September last year, mortgage interest rates have climbed back up above 6.5% and have stayed there thus far in 2025.  This increases monthly housing costs for potential buyers and can limit buyer activity... though those buyers do need listings to contract to buy.

3.  The stock market and broader economy have experienced some volatility thus far in 2025 which can cause some uncertainty or unease for some would be buyers and sellers.

In the end though, with inventory levels at a similar spot to where they were a year ago, it seems reasonable to mostly point to a lower number of willing sellers when trying to understand these lower contract numbers.

If the lower contract activity were a result of a lower number of willing buyers, we would likely see inventory levels climbing above where it was a year ago at this time.

We're still in the thick of the spring market, so we may yet see plenty of listings and plenty of contracts signed, but thus far... contract activity is off to a much slower start in 2025.