Understanding long term home sales trends


Understanding long term home sales trends
By Scott Rogers • January 26, 2009
Below is one of the graphs I generate each month in my monthly market report. This graph shows an overall trend for residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County by computing the rolling sum of the previous twelve months of market activity. To explain a bit more clearly, here are a few examples: The December 2008 data point on this graph is the sum of January 2008 - December 2008. The November 2008 data point is the sum of December 2007 - November 2008. This graph can give us a much better idea of trends in market activity (not to be confused with trends in home values), because: This metric is comparing 12 month periods to 12 month periods, instead of just comparing a month at a time or a quarter at a time. Every data point on this metric accounts for all months and seasons of the year, since it is always summing up a 12 month period. To go a bit futher, I broke down the data between different sizes of homes (0-1499 SF, 1500-2499 SF, 2500+ SF). This can show us trends in how each size of home is selling, and it will be interesting to see when each of the individual trendlines turns positive, and when the collective trendline turns positive. The graph above shows all residential sales, and then shows each of the other size ranges of homes (0-1499 SF in green, 1500-2499 SF in yellow, 2500+ in blue). This graph shows the trendline for homes (single family and townhomes) with less than 1500 square feet. With a somewhat smaller data set we see more volatility in this trendline, even with rolling twelve month sums, but it can still give us a good idea of long term trends in this type of housing. The graph above shows the changes in sales activity for mid-range homes (1500-2499 SF). This trendline doesn't have as much volatility, and mimicks more closely the overall trendline. This graph shows the trendline for larger homes, with at least 2500 square feet. There was a good bit of volatility in this trendline during 2003 and 2004, but it has now returned to a trendline much more similar to the overall market trend. Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 22, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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