JMU just published updated enrollment projections as recently approved by the State Council of High Education for Virginia. 

There are plenty of different figures that can be used to understand JMU enrollment, but the most pertinent relative to our local housing market is the "Total On-Campus Headcount" as shown in the graph above.  This figure is the best reflection of the number of students who will need housing, either on JMU campus, or off campus.  These figures, and their changes over time, are the best numbers to be using when analyzing the need for off campus student housing in Harrisonburg.

First, as you can see, JMU is still growing and intends to keep growing for years to come.  This is good in many ways for JMU, our local economy, our community, etc.  The question that is of interest to me, however, is how this all relates to Harrisonburg's off campus student housing market.

A lots can happen in 5 short years (2008-2013)....

• Reports of Rapid Growth.... 
  An article in the Daily News Record on June 19, 2009 stated that enrollment was 17,964 in 2008 and would increase to 21,542 by 2013.  That would have been an increase of 3,578 students. 
   
  
• Student Housing Developers Respond....
  Per my calculations, student housing developers (and JMU) added beds for 3,792 additional students between 2008 and 2013, including a new JMU residence hall, and new housing at Charleston Townes, Sunchase, North 38, Campus View, 865 East, Copper Beach, Urban Exchange and Aspen Heights.
   
  
• Actual Growth Was Much Slower....
  The Total On-Campus Headcount (shown above) actually only increased from 17,964 to 19,409 between 2008 and 2013.  This is an actual increase of only 1,445 students.
  

Real world implications....

Over the past five years, there has been an increase of 1,445 students needing housing....and during the same time frame, housing was built for 3,792 additional students.  This has led to a significant oversupply of student housing, with real world implications such as....

• declining property values in some privately own student housing complexes
  
• the rebranding of some off campus housing complexes to try to gain traction in an oversupplied market
  
• the apparent auction of a major off campus student housing complex

And yet, at the same time....

• new housing complexes being planned (though not yet implemented) even further from campus
• one newer complex was sold at a tremendously high value with high occupancy rates
• the first student housing complex was planned and built in the County

Why did it all happen?

So, we apparently have a tremendous oversupply of student housing in Harrisonburg -- many wonder why it happened.  Read my theories here.

Looking forward....

Given this new data (at the top of this post) about increases in JMU enrollment (Total On-Campus Headcount) what can we say or know about the future?

• Further projected increases in student enrollment should slowly eat into the oversupply of student housing.
  
  
• Our local market DOES NOT need any further off campus student housing!?!

This is a lot of information -- if you have questions, feel free to email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.