Archive for January 2020
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Rockingham County School Redistricting Approved |
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 On January 27, 2020 the Rockingham County School Board approved the following redistricting decisions... 1. The South River Elementary School attendance area will be part of the East Rockingham High School attendance area beginning with the 2020/2021 school year. 2. Students who attend 5th grade at South River Elementary School will transition to 6th grade at Elkton Middle School, beginning with this year's 5th-grade class. 3. Students who currently attend Montevideo Middle School as 8th graders and live in the South River School District will transition to 9th grade at East Rockingham High School for the 2020/2021 school year (sibling exceptions below). There are quite a few grandfathering rules that affect these changes. Read all about it here... And more broadly... | |
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How Should The City Improve Parking in Downtown Harrisonburg? |
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 The City wants to know what YOU think about parking in the downtown area. They have developed a series of recommendations from a forum and more than 1000 survey responses. These recommendations include ideas such as:
The City wants to know how much YOU agree with the recommendations they are considering. Take the survey NOW (or before Feb 7, 2020) at the link below... | |
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Three Ways To Pay For Mortgage Insurance |
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 George Mason Mortgage has an excellent overview of the three main ways to pay for mortgage insurance. But before we go there, what is mortgage insurance? If your down payment is less than 20% of the purchase price, your lender may require that you pay for mortgage insurance to cover their greater risk because of your smaller down payment. Two quick points...
And now, the three main ways to pay for this mortgage insurance...
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Taking A Winter Photo To Prepare For Listing Your Home In The Spring |
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 Many sellers list their homes in the Spring or Summer, which is often ideal for the timing of their move, and aligns well with when most buyers are in the market. However -- some houses are very difficult to be seen (and photographed) in the Spring and Summer because of large trees in the front yard. So -- if you're thinking of selling this Spring or Summer, and you have trees (especially large house-obscuring trees) we should discuss taking some exterior photos SOON rather than waiting until later when we can't see your house at all. Certainly, the grass isn't as green as it could be right now, and the flowers aren't blooming -- but it could be nice to see your house in the main view of your future real estate listing -- rather than just a tree. I'm happy to come by to shoot a few photos of the front of your house this month to give us better options for marketing your home a few months from now. Just drop me a line (scott@hhtdy.com) so that we can coordinate the details. | |
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If Your Basement Wall Has A Crack You Should Definitely Buy A Crack Monitor |
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 Sometimes during a home inspection, I wish I had a time machine. We'll see a crack in a basement wall -- but we don't know how long it has been that way. The general logic often then goes like this...
Yes, I know, those are sweeping generalizations, but... Because we don't have a time machine, most buyers end up needing to assume that every crack in a basement wall falls into the first category -- recent, and continuing to shift or change, and needing immediate and expensive remediation. But what if today, you installed a crack monitor for your basement wall -- and monitored it quarterly for the next five years -- and then when you were selling your house you could provide documentation that the crack had not changed at all (hopefully) in five years of monitoring... That, my friends, would change the game for a home seller with a crack in their basement wall. So -- check your basement walls for cracks -- and if you have any, consider installing a crack monitor! The photo above is the CRACKMON 4020A Concrete Crack Monitor Kit, which includes three crack monitors and the epoxy adhesive to install them. You can purchase the set for $100 on Amazon and that $100 could be some of the best money you spend on preparing for the future sale of your home if a prospective buyer finds themselves fretting over your cracked basement wall in the future. | |
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Monthly Housing Cost for Median Priced Home Climbs Further in 2019 |
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 As should come as no surprise, the monthly cost of housing is increasing -- and has been increasing more quickly over the past several years (2018, 2019) as compared to many prior years. The graph above devises a monthly cost of housing using the median sales price of homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County and the mortgage interest rate at the time. The payments above assume that a buyer finances 80% of the purchase price at the prevailing rate -- and these housing costs include an estimate of real estate taxes and homeowners insurance. Of interest -- this monthly cost...
Over the next few years, it seems likely we will see a continuation of this trend, as sales prices and mortgage interest rates are both likely to continue to increase. | |
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Issues Affecting Harrisonburg in 2020 and Beyond |
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 Are you an engaged member of our local community, hoping to play your part in making it a better place to live, work and raise a family? If so, take a few minutes to read this excellent article over at The Citizen that explores 20 issues that will likely shape Harrisonburg in 2020 and for years to come... Here is a sampling of the topics that are discussed in the article...
I believe it is worth your time to read this article and get involved in the community discussions and decisions related to these issues. Read the article here... And -- do you enjoy depth of local reporting found at The Citizen? If so, two action items... | |
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50 Largest Employers in Harrisonburg Rockingham MSA |
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 Looking for a job? Or trying to understand the types of employment offered in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area? Below is a list of the 50 largest employers in the Harrisonburg Rockingham Metropolitan Statistical Area per the Virginia Employment Commission as of 2019-Q2. Highlights: Higher Education, Healthcare, Public Schools, Distribution, Poultry, Publishing, Hospitality, Manufacturing and more!
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Lower Priced Market Segments See Largest Swings In Housing Inventory |
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 Not all price ranges are created equally, it seems. The hardest hit price range, perhaps unsurprisingly, is the under $200K price range -- where we have seen a 57% decline in the number of homes for sale over the past two years. Of note -- part of the problem here is increasing home values -- which prices some homes out of the "under $200K" price range. Regardless, though, buyers looking to stay under $200K for their home purchase are having an ever more difficult time doing so. The $200K - $300K market also had a sizable (26%) decline in the number of homes actively listed for sale as compared to two years ago. Both the $300K - $400K and the $400K+ price ranges only saw slight (-5%, -7%) declines in inventory levels - so not a marked difference from where inventory levels were two years ago.. | |
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Median Home Sales Price |
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 Here's a really long look back at the median sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see another solid increase in the median sales price in 2020 and likely over the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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20 Year History of Harrisonburg Area Home Sales |
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 Here's a really long look back at the number of homes that sell each year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. There have been a variety of different stages in the market over the past twenty years...
Where do we go from here? I think we'll see 1,300+ home sales per year for the next few years. What do you think? Email me at scott@hhtdy.com. | |
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More Homes Sold... More Quickly... at Higher Prices in 2019! |
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 Happy New Year and New Decade! And what a decade it was for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham residential real estate market! Read on to learn more about the new highs (and lows) we experienced in 2019 to finish out the decade -- or download the PDF here. But first -- feel free to explore this month's featured home -- an upscale townhouse in Taylor Spring that just hit the market this morning. Visit 2930CrystalSpringLane.com for details. And now, on to the some highlights of what's new and exciting in our local real estate market...  [1] First things first -- we saw more home sales in 2019 than we did in 2018 -- though barely. There was a 1.15% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This 1.15% increase did set some new (recent) records though, so keep on reading for that fun detail. [2] If the increase in the pace of sales was possibly smaller than expected -- the increase in the median price of those homes was probably larger than expected. I typically reference that median home prices usually increase around 2% to 3% per year over the long term -- but last year the median sales price jumped 5.19% in a single year to $223,000. This is certainly exciting for home owners and home sellers -- though not as thrilling for home buyers. [3] Finally, the time it took for homes to sell in 2019 dropped 28% to a median of only 18 days! This is a measure of how many days it takes for a house to go under contract once it is listed for sale. In summary, more homes sold, at higher prices, more quickly in 2019. But let's dig a bit deeper...  [1] The number of detached (single family) homes that sold in 2019 was only 0.74% higher than in 2018. So, we'll say about the same number of detached homes have sold in each of the past two years. [2] The median price of those detached homes has risen - a full 5.26% over the past year to the current median sales price of $240,000 for all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] There was a slightly larger (+2.21%) increase in the pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in 2019 -- though that small increase (362 sales to 372 sales) isn't anything to write home about. [4] The median price of the attached homes that sold in 2019 was 4.41% higher than the prior year -- bringing us to a $175,200 median sales price for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Zooming in a bit on December and the fourth quarter of 2019 we find...  ...just about nothing extraordinary. Darn. :-) Home sales during October, November and December of 2019 were squarely in the middle of the pack as compared to the past few years. So, no main takeaways there -- it seems we had a typical end of the year in our local housing market. But that typical end of the year piled on to the first nine months...  As shown above, it was only a small (small, small) increase in the number of homes selling between 2018 and 2019 -- but it was enough to push us above the two recent highs seen in 2016 and 2018. I cropped this graph a bit too tightly to see it, but 2019 home sales were the highest we have seen in 7+ years. Oh, and it seems I can make an even broader statement...  We hit some of the best number of the decade in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... The 1,321 home sales seen last year was the highest number of home sales seen any time in the past decade! The median sales price of $223,000 seen last year was the highest median sales price seen any time in the past decade! So, there's that! Exciting, indeed -- again, for everyone except those looking to buy right now. Speaking of the future...  Looking back can often help us understand what we'll see when moving forward. The graph above illustrates when buyers sign contracts to buy homes and the purple arrow is marking the typical January through April trajectory in our local housing market. So -- January and February are likely to be slow for contract activity -- but we should see things starting to pop in March and April. Get ready! And now, possibly the worst news in this market re-cap...  Inventory levels were not contingent to have dropped below 250 homes for sale at the end of November -- they dropped even lower (!?!) by the end of the year to where there are now only 195 homes for sale! We can conclude several things here -- today's buyers won't have many choices -- and when good choices do come on the market they are likely to go under contract quickly! Just to further dissect the depressing decline in inventory...  The larger drop in inventory over the past year has been in attached homes (the red line above) where there are now 56% fewer homes on the market as compared to a year ago. This is largely because there haven't been many new townhouses constructed in the past year as compared to many previous years. And when we look at the City compared to the County (brace yourself) we find...  The purple line above is showing you that there are only (it's real folks) 35 homes on the market for sale in the City of Harrisonburg! This is a 42% decline from a year ago. There was also a sizable decline in the number of County properties on the market, but buyers looking to buy in the City right now will find it to be a particularly tight market. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. Until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat soon about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we can chat about pricing. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as they come on the market to give you a shot at buying a home in a very tight real estate market. Happy 2020, friends! I am looking forward to a great year and hope to work with many of you to help you accomplish your real estate goals. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. | |
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When Will Home Buying Activity Ramp Up in 2020? |
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 It should be no surprise that buying activity (contracts being signed) slows down over the Winter. As shown above -- an average of 79 buyers sign contracts in January, which then increases a bit, to 90, in February, and then makes a much larger jump in March to an average of 133/month. So, we're going to say the MARCH is when we first seem a big jump in buyer activity. For that reason, many sellers wait until March (or even April) to put their homes on the market -- though the Spring market brings more competition from other sellers in addition to meaning that we'll start to see more buyers. I have also read several articles (locally, regionally and nationally) talking about how this year the "Spring housing market" is taking off just after Christmas instead of in March like in past years. Let's take a look... Contracts Signed Between December 26 and January 8...
So, over the past three years, there have been an average of 26 contracts between during the two weeks after Christmas. And how about this year?
So, this year is actually starting off just about the same as we've seen for the past three years. The Spring market isn't quite here yet despite what you might read. :-) | |
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My Predictions for the 2020 Real Estate Market |
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 As is my annual tradition, I am making some predictions about what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market in 2020. Above, you'll note that there was only a 1% increase in home sales between 2018 and 2019 -- and I am predicting a 2% increase between 2019 and 2020. A few thoughts along those lines...
So -- I'm betting on another increase, albeit a small increase, in the number of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2020. And how about those prices...  As shown above, we saw a 7% increase in the median sales price in 2018, followed by a 5% increase in 2019! I am -- perhaps too boldly (?) -- predicting we'll see another 5% increase in the median sales price this year. If I'm wrong on either prediction, perhaps it will be this one -- perhaps we'll start to see prices rising, but not quite as fast as they have over the past two years. The chances seem relatively low that we'd see an actual decline in the median sales price in 2020. OK - enough about my predictions --what about for you? Email me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and let me know where you think our local market will go in 2020. And keep up with all the market data between now and next January by signing up to receive my monthly housing market report by email if you are not already receiving it. | |
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Comparing My 2019 Housing Market Predictions To Reality |
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 As shown above, I was slightly (just slightly) too optimistic about the pace of home sales that we would see in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2019. I was predicting that we'd see a 2.2% increase to 1,325 home sales -- and we only saw a 1.6% increase to 1,317 home sales. So -- pretty close -- we did see a slight increase in the pace of home sales, and it was less than the 3% that we saw in 2018. Just as I observed last year -- even though we had low inventory levels all year long, buyers still found homes to buy -- which created a slight increase in the pace of sales, and a further decline in "days on market" in 2019.  If I was ever-so-slightly too bold in my prediction as to the pace of home sales, I was too conservative in my prediction as to the change in median sales price we'd see during 2019. I was predicting we'd see a 2.4% increase to a median sales price of $217,000 -- and we actually saw a 5.7% increase to a median sales price of $224,000 in 2019. This is similar to the 6.9% increase that we saw in 2018. So, we did see a smaller increase (5.7% is smaller than 6.9%) during 2019 than we saw in 2018 -- but it was still a larger increase than has been seen in most recent years. Stay tuned for some predictions for 2020 in the coming days! | |
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Home Sales Rise Around One Percent In 2019 |
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 All home sales have not yet been reported but it is seems that we will see around a 1% increase in the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County between 2018 and 2019. There have been 1,317 home sales recorded in the MLS thus far for last year and we may see that figure rise a bit more over the next few days, but not by much. This is a slight increase compared to last year -- and marks the highest year in recent memory...
Stay tuned for my full market report in the next week or so, as well as predictions for the 2020 housing market. Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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