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My Predictions For The 2024 Real Estate Market In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 The real estate market has been anything but predictable over the past few years, but read on for my predictions for what we'll see in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market this year... 4% Increase In Number of Home Sales As shown above, I am predicting that we will see a 4% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2024 -- an increase from 1,202 home sales last year up to 1,250 home sales this year. If we do indeed see 1,250 home sales in 2024 this will be the second slowest year of home sales since 2015. I think we'll see (4%) more home sales this year than last because we are starting to see mortgage interest rates decline after they hit 20+ year highs. Over the past two-ish months the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has dropped from 7.8% to 6.6%. I suspect that lower mortgage interest rates this year than last will lead to slightly more (4%) home sales this year than last. I am not, however, envisioning a 10% or 20% increase in home sales as interest rates above 6% will still likely keep many homeowners in their homes (not selling) if they have an interest rate below 4% -- and most homeowners with mortgages do have rates that low, so long as they have not bought in the past two years. So, I'm predicting we'll see slightly more (4%) home sales this year (1,250) than last, but certainly not much of a rebound towards the 1,400+ home sales we saw in 2020 (1,495 sales), 2021 (1,668 sales) and 2022 (1,564 sales). And how about those sales prices...  We have seen steady gains in the median sales price over the past several years... 2021 = +10% 2022 = +11% 2023 = +10% Despite three years in a row of double digit increases in the median sales price, you'll note that I am only predicting a 5% increase of the median sales price in 2024. I do think that continued buyer demand in the context of limited seller supply will keep prices rising, but I don't think they will rise as much as they have for the past three years. The inflation rate was above 5% between May 2021 and March 2023, which I believe makes the above increases in the median sales price seem even larger than they were once you consider them in the context of changes in inflation and the consumer price index. The inflation rate is now back down to around 3%, but mortgage interest rates (which directly affect house payment affordability) are still above 6%. As such, I think we will continue to see home prices rise, but not quite as quickly as we saw in 2021, 2022 and 2023. But enough about my predictions -- what about your predictions? Will we see more or fewer home sales in 2024 than in 2023? Will we see higher or lower sales prices in 2024 than in 2023? Email me with your thoughts or predictions! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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