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Contract Activity Increasing, Inventory Levels Decreasing, In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County |
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Happy Crisp, Cool, October Wednesday To You! This is a fantastic time of year... one of my favorite times of the year... we'll often have both pleasantly cool and pleasantly warm temperatures in the same day... the leaves are changing colors... I get to have a ton of fun coaching middle school volleyball and watching Emily's volleyball matches... cheering for the Dukes at plenty of JMU football games... not to mention my birthday later this month. ;-) And, let's not forget another October highlight... the Harrisonburg Half Marathon... "Funny" story... last year, I ran in the Harrisonburg Half Marathon after having been sick for a few days... and only made it through the first 10 miles before worrying all those around me by semi-collapsing. Oops! This year, at least a dozen people shouted out to me as I ran - "hey Scott, don't forget to finish this year!" - real funny guys, real funny. But yes, I did finish this year. Maybe I won't get the same jokes next year? Let's hope. :-) Before we get into the latest trends in our local housing market, each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away a seasonally appropriate $50 gift card to Showalter's Orchard in Timberville. Let this be a reminder to you to go pick some apples, enjoy some apple cider donuts, and get into the Fall season! Click here to enter to win the gift card. And now, on to the real estate data. Charts first, graphs second. Above you'll find a snapshot of the overall market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, showing... [1] Despite a small (3%) drop in home sales in September (101 down to 98) we have seen an 8% increase in home sales when comparing the first nine months of this year to the first nine months of last year. Home sales are on the rise. [2] The median sales price of those homes that sold in 2024 has been "only" 5% higher than it was a year ago. I say "only" because we have seen multiple years of 10% increases in the median sales price, so this 5% increase is a smaller increase than we have otherwise seen in recent years. Interestingly, we see slightly different trends if we focus in on only detached homes... excluding townhomes, duplexes and condos... [1] Compared to the market-wise 8% increase in home sales in 2024, we have only seen a 5% increase in detached home sales. We're not seeing the number of detached homes selling bounce back quite as much as we are seeing that in the overall market. [2] The detached home sales market is outperforming the overall market when it comes to sales prices. The median sales price of a detached home has increased 11% (from $350K to $390K) over the past year as compared to the 5% increase seen in the overall market. Thus, you likely won't be surprised to see the opposite trends in the attached home sales report which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos... When looking just at attached home sales we find... [1] There has been a much larger increase in the number of these sales that are taking place with a 14% year to date increase, compared to the 8% increase in the overall market. [2] The increase in median sales price has been a smidge smaller (4%) than in the overall market (5%) thus far in 2024. Next, let's take a quick peek at one smaller segment of the local market... the City of Harrisonburg... If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg, you likely won't have that many options. After seeing 335 home sales in the first nine months of 2022, that dropped to 241 sales last year, and has now fallen to 210 home sales this year. These declines in home sales are not a result of fewer buyers wanting to buy -- it is almost entirely (or entirely) a result of fewer sellers being willing to sell -- and little to no new home construction taking place in the City. In contrast, in Rockingham County... Home sales are booming (+15% YTD) in Rockingham County, due in large part to new home communities springing up almost entirely in the County rather than in the City. While we aren't back to 2022 sales levels, we have seen a solid increase in County home sales activity in 2024 as compared to 2023. Finally, a synopsis of those new home sales that are a significant part of the local housing market in a time when many homeowners do not want to sell their homes... Two things to note here... [1] While the overall market has seen only an 8% increase in the number of homes selling in the City and County, we have seen a (much larger) 28% increase in the number of new homes selling this year compared to last. [2] Despite a 5% increase in the median sales price of the entire market, we are only seeing a 3% increase in the median sales price of new homes. And again, let's not be too surprised by the opposite indicators in the resale market... Looking just at resale homes, or existing home sales... [1] There has only been a 1% increase in the number of existing homes selling this year... compared to an 8% increase in the overall market. Thus, that 8% increase in overall home sales is almost entirely due to new homes being built and available for sale. [2] The median sales price of existing homes has risen 7% over the past year, at a slightly higher rate than the overall market where the median sales price has only risen 5%. And now... moving beyond the words, to some graphs... On the graph above, you can see that the months of May (144), June (128), July (131) and August (113) all out performed the same months last year when it came to the number of home sales that went to closing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But... we saw fewer home sales this September (98) than last September (101) so maybe home sales are slowing down a bit? Hold that theory for a few more graphs and we'll see if it is reinforced by recent contract activity. While we're holding that thought, let's see where nine months of home sales have taken us thus far in 2024... Home sales are on the rise! We've seen 1,003 home sales in the first nine months of last year, which is solidly above where things stood last year (933) though is still well below the number of home sales we were seeing in 2022. At this point it seems very likely that we will finish out 2024 with more home sales than last year (1,206) but we seem very (very) unlikely to rebound back to the 1,571 home sales seen in 2022. And here are those long term, slow moving, trendlines that are important to monitor over time... The green line above shows that while the median sales price is still steadily increasing in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... the pace at which is increasing is... slowing. After a few years of 10% annual increase in the median sales price, we seem likely to only see a 5% annual increase in 2024. But... as shown by the blue line... home sales are rising again. A few graphs from now you'll see that mortgage interest rates hit their 20+ year high in October 2023, and lo and behold, once those rates started drifting back downward again... home sales started to rise again. Now, contract activity. Remembering back a few graphs, we were wondering if a slight decline in September home sales meant that we would see an overall slower Fall sales season. Per this graph, I'm going to say no... Two things to note above... [1] July through August contract activity generally fell last year (blue line) while it has been rising this year (red line) indicating we should see stronger home sales over the next few months. [2] Contract activity *really* fell last October and November... likely due to the highest mortgage interest rates in 20+ years. We are not seeing those same high rates this year, so contract activity seems likely to be well exceed last year's figures in October and November. And... a slow rise in contract activity over the past few months has resulted in... Lower inventory levels! Over the past two months we have seen small but steady declines in the number of homes listed for sale (that are not under contract) as compared to a steady increase between last June and October. We seem unlikely to see a rapid rise in inventory levels this October and November, as last year's increase was likely directly related to 7.5%+ mortgage interest rates that (thankfully) just lasted for a few months. This next (and second to last) graph has become more interesting of late... The big question... is seasonality back when it comes to "median days on market" in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Over the past two years we have seen this median days on market metric increase in the Fall and Winter and decline in the Spring and Summer. Will we see that happen again as we roll through November, December, January and February? Stay tuned! Finally, we've talked about mortgage interest rates a half dozen times thus far, so let's see what they have been doing... Mortgage interest rates have been falling for the past five months to a low of 6.08% at the end of September... down from 7.31% a year ago. These lower mortgage interest rates have progressively lowered mortgage payments for actual buyers and would be buyers and has likely brought more buyers back into the market at many price points. And there you have it folks, in summary...
All that said, this is all much more nuanced in any particular segment of the market based on property type, size, age, location, etc. So... If you are thinking about selling your home this Fall, let's dive into the trends for your corner of our local real estate market to determine the best pricing strategy for your home. If you are thinking about buying a home this Fall, go ahead and get pre-approved and let's start looking at new listings of interest as they hit the market, as they likely won't last long. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until next month... enjoy Fall... and may you not forget to finish whatever race you are currently running... literally or figuratively. ;-) Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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