Happy Tax Day! (Is that a thing?)
 
  
As we wrap up the first quarter of 2025, a few trends are starting to take shape...
  
First, the pace of home sales is off to a slower start this year. From January through March, we saw a 17% drop in the number of homes sold compared to the same time last year.
  
But zooming out tells a different story. When we compare the most recent 12 months to the 12 months before that, we’re actually seeing more homes selling overall. So yes, things have started slowly in 2025 - but the broader trend suggests the market is gaining momentum.
  
And what about prices?
  
The days of double-digit annual increases in the median sales price seem to be behind us. So far this year, prices are down just slightly - about 1% compared to the first three months of last year.
  
But again, looking at the bigger picture, the median sales price over the past 12 months is still 3% higher than the previous 12 months.
  
When we narrow the focus to just single-family detached homes - leaving out townhouses, duplexes, and condos - we start to see a few different patterns emerge.
  
Even though the overall market has seen a 6% increase in home sales, sales of detached homes are actually down 1% over the past 12 months compared to the previous year. This slight dip likely isn’t due to a lack of buyer interest- it's more likely a result of fewer homeowners choosing to sell.
  
On the pricing side, detached homes are telling a different story. While the market as a whole has seen a 3% increase in the median sales price, detached homes are up 8% over the past year.
  
While detached home sales have dipped slightly, it's a different story for attached homes - that includes townhomes, duplexes, and condos.
  
Over the past 12 months, attached home sales are up 23% compared to the year before. That tells us there are plenty of buyers in the market - and plenty of sellers, too.
  
With inventory a bit more available in this segment, prices haven't climbed as quickly. The median sales price of attached homes is up just 2% over the past year - compared to an 8% jump for detached homes.
  
  
Looking at the first quarter of the year, City sales are down 32%, and over the past 12 months, they’re down 11%. So yes - fewer homes are selling in the City of Harrisonburg.
  
But with fewer homeowners choosing to sell, or perhaps because of fewer homeowners choosing to sell, prices are on the rise. The median sales price in the City is up 6% over the past year, outpacing the 3% market-wide increase.
  
It is becoming increasingly clear that Rockingham County is driving the increase in home sales.  Over the past 12 months, sales in the County are up 12% compared to the year before.
  
But with that increase in activity comes a bit of a tradeoff. Inventory has been more readily available, which means prices haven’t climbed as quickly - the median sales price is up just 2% over the past year.
  
Let’s talk resale homes - everything except new construction.
  
We’re finally seeing a slight (slight!) uptick, with 1% more existing homes selling over the past 12 months compared to the year before. But before we start celebrating, let’s keep it in perspective... existing home sales were down 20% in the first three months of this year, and down 27% in March alone.
  
In the graph above, the blue line shows monthly home sales in 2024, and the grey line represents the three-year average.
  
And that red line, trailing well below the others? Yep, that's the slow, slow, sloooow start to 2025.
  
Two Quick Takeaways...
  
First, after a steady climb in the pace of home sales through most of 2024, things have been heading in the other direction so far in 2025. New year, new trend? Unfortunately, not the kind that excites would-be buyers.
  
As for prices - after several years of double-digit increases, prices aren't rising quite as quickly. The median sales price is up just 3% over the past year.
  
We're seeing a trend that's mostly expected - a dip in contract activity in February, followed by a bounce back in March. But here's the catch: both months came in well below last year's numbers.
  
So, what's ahead for April and May? Say it with me now... it all depends on whether more homeowners are willing to sell.
  
The buyers? They're ready.
  
This one's a bit of a head-scratcher at first glance. Yes, inventory has been rising steadily from January to March of 2025 - but after all that, we've just landed right back where we were this time last year.
  
Unlike the rollercoaster of a few years ago, mortgage interest rates have settled into a fairly steady range. For the past two years they've held above 6%, and for the last 16 months, they've mostly hovered between 6% and 7% - as shown above.