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Local Home Sales Up 10%, Prices (Finally!) Stable |
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NEWS FLASH --- with 11 precincts now reporting (ok, months) we are ready to predict the outcome of this race (ok, housing market) as a convincing win for homeowners. The pace of sales has increased 10% in 2012, and prices have (finally!) stabilized! Download the December 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report to pore over the details, or read on for highlights.... The pace of residential sales is up 10% in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We have been suspecting a strong comeback for 2012 for some time, but with November sales figures added into the mix we are now seeing a 10% increase in year-to-date sales as compared to 2011. The median sales price threatens to stay at $175,000 eternally. After 20 straight months of hovering between $173K and $177K, I think it is safe to say that the median sales price has stabilized. Each data point above is a 12-month median sales price. Inventory levels keep dropping. One reason the local housing market is slowly steadying itself is because there are fewer and fewer homes for sale. And no, that's not just the seasonal slow down --- as shown above, inventory levels have declined 17% over the past year. Click on the image below to download the full December 2012 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. If you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Are national home prices up for the 8th consecutive year? |
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I received several e-mails last night from clients who were a bit confused by the story WHSV ran yesterday about the housing market. Here are some clarifications.... "National home prices are up for the eighth consecutive year." Actually, prices are up for the eighth consecutive month, as measured on a year-over-year basis. An improvement for eight straight months is quite different than eight straight years. (source)"The homes that are selling the quickest are actually homes priced between $200,000 and $250,000." Average days on market is actually lowest for homes priced under $200K, not for those priced between $200K and $300K. (source - page 26)"Bridgewater, Dayton, southwest Rockingham county area. That's where we've had the most significant price increase. Prices have increased 12 percent in that area this year." Per my calculations, it's actually a 3.6% increase, not a 12% increase. The Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes in SouthWest Rockingham County in 2011 was $205,000. The Median Sales Price for Single Family Homes in SouthWest Rockingham County in 2012 (YTD) is $212,500.I agree with the overall sentiment of the news story --- the local housing market is improving --- but there were a few items in the story that ended up being misleading (presumably, unintentionally). Here's to improvements in national (and local) housing prices for the next eight years! :) | |
When do most $300K-$400K homes sell in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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It seems (see above) that there are many more $300K-$400K home buyers in the market during the summer months than any other time of year. And before you say this is just the normal seasonal trend for home sales, compare it to the overall market (below). Perhaps the high buyer count in the summer for $300K-$400K range is related to incoming JMU professors? | |
Bigger Picture: Inventory Levels Quite Low! |
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Not only are inventory levels down 19% in the past year, they are also quite low as compared to the past few years. | |
Harrisonburg, Rockingham County Home Sales Surge Forward in October 2012 |
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I just published my monthly Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. Download the full PDF here or read on for some highlights. Our local housing market continues to slowly and steadily recover:
October 2012 was a fantastic month of home sales, with 74 home sales, compared to only 62 last October. This October, in fact, was the best October in at least 3 years. The remainder of the year (Nov, Dec) should continue to show strong sales figures based on many buyers contracting on homes in October. (download the full report for details) Inventory levels continue to decline, helping to bring our local housing market close to being in balance. An over-supply of sellers and under-supply of buyers in recent years has caused many of the less-than-exciting market conditions of late. It is a positive sign to see inventory declining steadily over the past 12 and 24 months. There's lots more inside! Click above (or here) to download my full local housing market report for November 2012. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
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Median Price Per Acre in Rockingham County |
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Land values have declined over the past few years, and the median price per acre varies quite a bit based on the size of the parcel of land. The median price per acre of all tracts of land with 5+ acres that have sold in Rockingham County thus far in 2012 is $7,000. When we look only at those with 10+ acres, that drops to a median of $4,704 per acre. Read on for further analysis of each segment of the land market in Rockingham County | |
Home sales up 6% year-over-year in Virginia |
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Other good news includes....
View the entire report as a PDF here. | |
Explore 22 Townhouse Communities in Harrisonburg, VA |
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Learn all about Harrisonburg's 22 townhouse communities on HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, now updated with 2012-Q3 sales trend data. | |
VAR: CNN doesn't understand the concept of a bubble |
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From the fine folks at the Virginia Association of Realtors.... "Home prices may not return to peak until 2023," is the CNN Money headline. The story is that housing prices may take that long to hit their 2007 levels — that is, the levels they were at the peak of the housing bubble. This is news? During the bubble, property values prices rose way above rational levels, and thus way above where they should have been. ("Should have," being defined as where they would go if they stuck to normal levels of inflation.) It's as if CNN was expecting prices to look like this: When in reality they're going to look like this: You can't expect prices to hit 2007 levels any time soon. Home prices have, on average, tracked inflation. After the bubble burst, prices dropped below where they should have been (think of it as the pendulum swinging far in the other direction), and are making their way back to their "natural" state. At which point they'll proceed to track inflation, barring another bubble or bust. So if, like CNN, you were expecting the market to quickly make its way back to 2007 levels, think again. And give it time. | |
Are all (price) segments of the local housing market recovering equally? Maybe not. |
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The under $200K segment of our local housing market has recovered nicely over the past 15 months --- improving from an average of 36 buyers per month up to 42 per month --- a 17% improvement in sales pace. The next most affordable price range ($200K-$300K) is also doing OK, having improved by 43% (14 buyers/month up to 20 buyers/month) during the same time frame. But our local housing market's higher price ranges are not faring as well --- with virtually no change in pace in the $300K-$400K segment of the market, and a declining pace of sales in the $400K+ price range. So.....overall, the local housing market is definitely recovering (read more here) but it is not affecting all property types and price ranges equally. Interested in details on how your property value has been affected? Feel free to call me at 540-578-0102. | |
Harrisonburg townhouse market may finally be stabilizing! |
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The townhouse market has been hit especially hard in recent years:
But it seems (see the graph above) that the market may finally be starting to stabilize.
You'll find lots more market analysis and commentary in my monthly real estate market report (PDF). Explore Harrisonburg townhouse communities online at HarrisonburgTownhouses.com. | |
Despite mixed signals in September, local housing market continues to show signs of strength and stability |
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I just published my monthly Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. Download the full PDF here, or read on for some highlights. Despite some confusing and conflicting indicators in September, our local housing market is still stabilizing, and is poised for further growth. This month particularly, we need to keep the one-month indicators (September) firmly rooted within the context of longer-term trends (YTD)....
Contracts are up 46% in September 2012 (compared to Sept 2011) but bear in mind that 22 of those contracts were a single buyer purchasing 22 investment properties. Inventory levels continue to drop in our market, slowly creating a more even balance between buyers and sellers. Buyers aren't able to negotiate quite as much these days, as shown above. This is another sign of market stabilization. Looking for more analysis of our local housing market? Download the full PDF of my market report here. And, if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Oh, one last thing....here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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Sellers, don't despair yet, take a look at buyer activity last October and November! |
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Some sellers are feeling depressed, not having received a contract on their house during the exciting Spring and Summer months of April through August. And since September has now passed, they assume they might as well now wait until Spring to try selling again. But wait --- if we look at last year's contract trajectory, we need not be discouraged....
We should still have two more active months of buyers writing contracts before the market does slow down for its two slowest months of the year --- December and January. | |
Did you miss the HOT spring and summer market? Selling in the fall isn't so bad after all. |
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As shown above, the Fall market last year (blue, 193 sales) was actually much active in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County than the Summer market. If that trend continues, we are likely to see a very strong Fall market this year -- perhaps with as many as 212 home sales. As it turns out, the seasons stacked in order of activity seem to be Spring, Fall, Summer, Winter! Projected Fall sales are based on average 2012 seasonal sales increase of 10% during Winter, Spring and Summer. | |
Should I buy a home if I am only going to be there for two years? |
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It depends on the price range, how much of a down payment you are making, whether you are willing to keep the property as a rental property after you move out, and many other factors. However, below is a 2-year, 3-year, 4-year and 5-year analysis of buying versus renting a property valued at $150K compared to $300K, which shows that....
There are, of course, plenty of extenuating circumstances. Many people might buy a $150K house (or townhouse) even if they are planning to be there for only 3 years --- because they want their own home (not their landlord's), or to get in a certain neighborhood, or because of the tax benefits (not shown below). Every buyer's situation is different, and I'd be happy to help you run an analysis similar to those shown below if you're interested in analyzing your best housing move. | |
Don't rely on Zillow Zestimates for an estimate of your home's value in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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If you do some digging on Zillow.com, you will see they rate their confidence in their estimate by each geographic area. A rating of five means they are most confident in the value. A rating of one means they are either using the tax assessed value or "unable to compute Zestimate accuracy". As you'll note above, Harrisonburg scores a ONE by their own admission. This means that their value estimates are information is totally unreliable. You can read more about this on Zillow's website. So before you put too much stock in what Zillow might tell you about your home's value --- remember that they themselves would tell you that their value estimates in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are not at all accurate. | |
Harrisonburg home sales surge ahead 16% in August 2012 |
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Exciting things are happening in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. Click here to download my monthly market report (28 page PDF), or read on for some highlights. As shown above, indicators were mostly positive in August....
Contract activity also surged in August 2012 --- showing a 16% increase over August 2011 --- and a 67% increase over August 2010! This is certainly a good sign for the coming months of closed sales data. Declining inventory is certainly helping our local housing market head back towards more of a balance between buyers and sellers. The number of homes for sale has decreased by 19% over the past year. Click on the image above to download my full market report (28 page PDF). Also, here are a few articles I have written over the past month that might be of interest:
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August was good to us; positive trends continue.... |
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Home sales have increased (2012-YTD as compared to 2011-YTD) and so have median prices. These prolonged trends are slowly leading us back towards a more balanced local housing market. Jan 1, 2011 through Aug 31, 2011 = 522 (median price = $173,500) Jan 1, 2012 through Aug 31, 2012 = 564 (median price = $175,000) | |
Has the local housing market started stabilizing and/or recovering in all price ranges equally? |
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Yesterday, I was chatting with two different people about the housing market and both were wondering how the potential local recovery (or at least stabilization) impacted different price ranges. The increased pace of home sales over the past year has not affected all price ranges equally, as shown in the graph above:
The winner, it seems, is the $200K - $300K price range, though the lowest price range (under $200K) is also doing quite well. | |
Is the window of maximum negotiating ability closing? |
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Hidden in yesterday's monthly market report was this new graph that explores the amount that sellers negotiate off of their asking prices. As you can see, at the peak of the market (2005) sellers only negotiated 0.9% (on average) off of their asking price. That metric has since fallen all the way down to 94.7% in 2011 --- well below the assumed normal of 97.4% in 2000, before the real estate market started taking off like a rocket. The important thing to note, though, is that this metric is edging back upwards thus far in 2012 --- to an average of 95.4%. That means that sellers are finding themselves negotiating less on their asking price because of gradual overall market improvements. Sellers -- be encouraged that you won't be beat up as much on price as we move forward. Buyers -- if you want to negotiate heavily on price, consider buying now, not next year. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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