Analysis
| Newer Posts | Older Posts |
 |
 |
Strong Sales, Stronger Contracts, Fewer Homes For Sale |
|
Taking a look at the first four months of 2011, there are some signs of good news in our local market.....and certainly still some indicators that are not quite as positive. Click here to download the full Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report as a PDF, or read on for some highlights....  As seen above, year-to-date sales are only down 6% -- though median prices are down 12% as compared to a year ago.  Home sales have been going strong through March and April (the red line above), after a slow start in January and February. Hopefully we will continue to see a sales trajectory that will exceed May 2010, and perhaps come close to June 2010.  Buyers were QUITE active in April 2011 --- the number of contracts written (104) was the highest month of contracts in the past three years with the exception of last April. This bodes well for strong sales numbers in May and June!  Even better news is that while buyer activity is increasing, seller activity isn't getting too out of hand. We have significantly lower numbers of listings this spring as compared to the past two springs. Our real estate market still has a long way to go before it is stable -- but April 2011 market activity seems to indicate that we are headed in that direction. For more reading, Click here to download the full Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report as a PDF. As always, if you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
 |
 |
|
|
How much do banks typically negotiate in selling a bank owned property? |
|
Buyers can often find great opportunities in bank owned properties, but they often wonder how much they should expect to be able to negotiate off of the list price of a bank owned property. Let's take a look.... For all residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in the past year, we find:
I suppose the important thing to remember is that the list-to-sell ratio of any property is largely dependent on how realistic the asking price is. Both a homeowner and a bank can price a home too high when putting it on the market. Perhaps banks do that less often, and thus achieve a (slightly) higher list-to-sell ratio despite still offering great deals on properties? Additional Relevant Information:
| |
|
|
|
|
Buying options under $200K keep increasing, but otherwise, your options are vanishing |
|
I often hear that there are too many homes for sale (sellers tell me this) and that there aren't nearly enough homes on the market (buyers tell me this). Let's examine how inventory levels have changed over the past several years.....  It may be a result of an overall decline in median sales prices (home values), but whatever the reason, the number of options under $200K keeps increasing. Three years ago, you would only have had 263 homes to choose from in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- but that has now ballooned to 447 listings.  Listing inventory between $200K and $300K has gradually declined over the past several years, though it did surge upwards in the spring and summer of 2010. We may again see a surge as homeowners prepare to list their homes for the summer 2011 buying season.  The decline in $300K to $400K listings has been a bit faster than in the $200K to $300K range (32% versus 27%).  Housing options over $400K have drastically declined over the past several years, with an overall 37% decline. This is likely an appropriate decline relative to the overall decline in the number of buyers in the market. Whatever the price range, we will likely start to see a surge in homes listed for sale as we continue through spring and summer of 2011. Hopefully we will not reach past seasonal peaks of 1,000+ homes as we did in mid-2010. | |
|
|
|
|
Buyers are writing offers in droves |
|
April 2011 was a busy month of contracts, with 105 contracts inked on properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Having surpassed 100 contracts, we'll call that droves of buyers....  But what, you might ask, did these buyers actually contract to buy? Let's expand our search a bit and look at the price range of homes that have gone under contract in the past 60 days....  As you can see, houses priced under $200K are still HOT! To put this in perspective.... Active listings under $200K: 435 26% of active inventory may go under contract in the next 60 days Active listings between $200K and $300K: 224 17% of active inventory may go under contract in the next 60 days Active listings between $300K and $400K: 97 19% of active inventory may go under contract in the next 60 days Active listings over $400K: 83 12% of active inventory may go under contract in the next 60 days When compared to the active listing inventory, the under $200K and $300K to $400K price ranges are performing the best at this time. | |
|
|
|
|
The Central Valley fares well in home sales, and better than most in home prices |
|
The Virginia Association of Realtors just published their first quarter home sales report (available here as a 6.65MB PDF). Let's take a look at how Harrisonburg and Rockingham County (encompassed in the "Central Valley" region) are doing.....  As you can see above, the Central Valley had a 6.5% increase in home sales in 2011-Q1 as compared to 2010-Q1. While we haven't yet seen such an increase in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, it is a positive sign that our region is performing well overall.  Above you will note that the median sales price declined in every region of the state during 2011-Q1, as compared to 2010-Q1. After Northern Virginia's negligible decrease (-0.3%) the best performing region was the Central Valley, which includes Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with only a 4.9% decline. See a few more explanations of VAR's First Quarter Home Sales Report here, or download the full PDF of the report here. | |
|
|
|
|
How did Virginia fare in the housing bubble? |
|
These helpful maps were created by the folks over at Design & Geography.... Virginia fared better than most states pre-bubble with a 80% to 120% increase in housing prices between 2000 and 2006.  Virginia homes lost value between 2006 and 2010 (0% - 20%) but not as much value as some states such as California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.  Virginia is one among a handful of states that experienced a net gain in housing prices between 2000 and 2010.  Virginia's housing market continues to fare well, and hopefully we will see a further increase in the market both in Virginia as well as Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
|
|
|
|
Foreclosure Rates in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
|
Inspired by a great article in yesterday's Daily News Record about foreclosure rates in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, here is a comparison of foreclosure rates in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to Virginia.  A few other notable observations from the DNR article:
| |
|
|
|
|
Buyers Are Moving Fast! Contracts Up 29% In April 2011! |
|
 In the first 20 days April 2010..............58 contracts were written... In the first 20 days of April 2011..............75 contracts were written! Beyond this 29% increase in the pace of sales this April, it is interesting to note how many buyers are moving quickly once they see a house come on the market that works well for them, and is priced right.  Note the large percentage of homes above that went under contract within the first two months that they were on the market. | |
|
|
|
|
Home Value Trends in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
|
We have seen significant declines in home values in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past several years --- though nowhere near the level of declines seen in many metro areas. One common question, however, is what does the future look like.  Between 2003 and 2006, we might have thought that home values would increase forever (shown above). This was obviously unrealistic and unsustainable.  I also don't think we'll see median prices fall in a straight line forever in the same trajectory as we've seen for the past several years.  Projecting based only on 2000 to 2001 data might get closer to reality, but we'd have to start seeing a rather dramatic uptick in values here in the next year or so to get back on track.  The graph above is perhaps my best guess for the future. It presupposes that 2000 through 2003 showed normal increases in home values, and that things then escalated out of control from 2003 through 2006. The market then stayed relatively level between 2006 and 2008 before finally starting to correct between 2008 and 2011. The question remains, however -- will we have to dip below the trend line before coming back up to meet it? | |
|
|
|
|
How do you think our local real estate market is doing? |
|
One of the questions we asked hundreds of visitors to our booth at the 2011 Shenandoah Valley Builders Association Home & Garden Show was..... "How do you think our local real estate market is doing?" Here are the responses....  So, what do you think? Do you agree with those in attendance at the Home & Garden Show? | |
|
|
|
|
Home Sales Strong Despite (or because of) Price Declines |
|
March 2011 home sales show plenty of positive indicators, though the local market is still a ways off from a full recovery.  After mediocre performance in January and February, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market finally witnessed some growth in March 2011. March's 61 home sales exceeded March 2010 (49 sales) and March 2009 (57 sales), and contributed to an overall decline in home sales of only 6% between 2010 (YTD) and 2011 (YTD).  Not only did buyers close on properties in March, they also contracted on properties --- though probably not the same buyers. March 2011 showed another strong month of contracts (75), exceeding March 2009 figures (68). Last March's contract figures (95) were significantly affected by the home buyer tax credit.  Despite increases in inventory over the past two months, it appears that 2010's peak of over 1,000 properties for sale will not be met this year. We have seen an overall decline of 13.5% over the past year in the number of residential properties for sale, which can help restore balance to the market.  Despite the strong indicators noted above, we do see that the median sales price of single family homes has started to decline again more sharply after a relatively steady year last year. We may not be totally out of the woods yet.  There's plenty more news in my monthly housing market report -- click on the image above (or here) to download and view the full PDF. As always, if you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
|
|
|
|
Are Realtors Too Optimistic? |
|
I have been cautiously optimistic about the real estate market improving for almost four years now. Each year, instead of improving, the market declined. So -- would you like to know what I am predicting for the upcoming year in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market? I am cautiously optimistic that things will start to improve. Hmmmm........ Now, of course hindsight is always 20/20, but check out my comments back in January 2008 (a bit over 3 years ago): Preparing for the 2008 Real Estate Market "As 2007 progressed, sales increased, and inventory levels decreased. In most price ranges, there is still somewhat of an oversupply of housing – but this will likely continue to correct itself in 2008. As we move through the first quarter of 2008, expect to see a continued gradual increase in the number of sales, and a continued gradual decrease in the inventory of available homes. The continuation of both of these trends will restore a healthy balance between buyers and sellers in our market." Was a healthy balance in the market restored in 2008? No. Things became worse. And then worse yet in 2009. And then worse yet in 2010. So where IS the real estate market headed in 2011? I believe the market will start to incrementally improve this year --- but again, I have thought that for years now, without my beliefs being born out in market realities. And yet as I look to the future and provide projections and predictions to my clients I try to strike a balance between totally unrealistic optimism and totally depressing pessimism. Let me know sometime whether you think I'm striking an appropriate balance: scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com | |
|
|
|
|
How Do Virginians Heat Their Homes? |
|
Have you ever wondered how Virginians heat their homes? The Market Leaders Over Time: Coal......Oil......Electric  And for the graphically inclined....  Source: U.S. Census | |
|
|
|
|
March 2011 Home Sales Set New Record |
|
Bill Meadows, a new resident of Dayton, Virginia, holds a distinct honor -- he was the only person to buy a home anywhere in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County during March 2011.  As shown above, January and February sales were quite low, but most people were expecting that we would see a rebound in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales during March 2011. Alas, we did not, as only one person (Bill Meadows) bought a home during the entire month of March. Most analysts are hoping for stronger sales in April, to at least hit the double digits. "I was quite surprised to find out that I was the only one to buy a house this month," Bill commented, "I was pretty sure I had heard several co-workers and friends also talking about buying a home this month." Home sellers are trying hard to keep this in perspective but some sellers, such as Sally Peters, are having difficulty staying calm about this new development. "With only 1 home sale last month, and 821 active listings, that shows a 68 year supply of homes on the market," Sally explained, "Since I'm already 52 years old myself, I am obviously a bit concerned that it might take 68 years to sell all of the houses on the market. I might be over 100 before my home sells!?!" Stay tuned for a full report on the housing market in roughly a week, until then, watch for additional details on these breaking stories:
| |
|
|
|
|
Fortune Magazine: It Is Time To Buy Real Estate Again |
|
Fortune Magazine makes some bold predictions after LOTS of detailed analysis....  Click on the image above (or here) for a PDF of the entire article, which deserves a careful read. To entice you to read the entire article, consider the following excerpts....
| |
|
|
|
|
If (When) You Can't Find A Perfect Home |
|
Even when there are plenty of homes for sale, some (or many?) buyers won't be able to find "the perfect house" -- even after looking at a lot of houses. What is a buyer to do?  Some would say every buyer must compromise on some aspects of the house they are searching for. Above you can see that a full third of home buyers responding to the National Association of Realtors research methods did not consider themselves to have compromised at all in their home purchase. From there, we jump down to size and price of the home, followed by condition. The areas where buyers were unwilling to compromise included items such as schools, neighborhood and distance from family and friends. Where would you prefer to compromise as a buyer? | |
|
|
|
|
How Do 2011 Home Sales Stack Up To 2010 Home Sales? |
|
 The graph above shows the cumulative number of home sales having occurred as we moved past each of the first 83 days of this year (as compared to last year). As you can see, we were doing well through the end of January, but the gap started to widen slightly through February, and more significantly through March. Due to the first time home buyer tax credit, we may see the gap widen even further in April, though hopefully we'll have some strong summer months of sales to keep us relatively on pace with 2010 home sales. | |
|
|
|
|
What Portion Of Homes For Sale Are Under Contract? |
|
Contracts have been strong over the past several months, but what has been going under contract? By the numbers, the following is the break down of the properties currently under contract:
 The graph above, however, shows how the number of properties under contract in each price range compares to the total number for sale. A few observations:
| |
|
|
|
|
Big Picture Real Estate Predictions |
|
 Am I being reasonable in these predictions? Change in number of single family home sales:
| |
|
|
|
|
Do most homes have bedrooms on the first floor? |
|
Apparently this varies by region --- in a conversation earlier this week someone was sharing with me that in each part of the country where they had lived, it was a bit different. In one part of the country, nearly every home had a bedroom on the first floor. In another part of the country, only a very small number of homes had a bedroom on the first floor. What is your guess for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? 64% of currently available single family homes offer a bedroom on the first floor! This was a bit surprising to me, as I assumed it might be less than half of all homes. I will often have buyer clients that are requesting this feature in a home and it seems to limit their options --- but apparently not too significantly. Breaking it down by price range, there also isn't much variation:
49% of currently available multi-level single family homes offer a bedroom on the first floor! Looking just a little bit further, let's examine whether there is a difference in "sellability" of homes with vs. without a bedroom on the first floor. When examining multi-level homes sold in the last year:
Are you considering buying a home, or building a home? Do you have questions about what you should be looking for or avoiding in a house? I'm happy to share my opinion, or the facts as shown by home sales data. Call me at 540-578-0102 or e-mail me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and we can discuss your situation. | |
|
|
| Newer Posts | Older Posts |
Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
Home Search
Housing Market Report
Harrisonburg Townhouses
Walk Through This Home
Investment Properties
Harrisonburg Foreclosures
Property Transfers
New Listings
