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Housing Supply & Demand - May 2008 |
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This is an illustration of the relationship between our market's supplyand demand in four price ranges. The numbers (6, 11, 14, 25) representthe months of supply of properties currently available based on averagedemand per month during the past twelve months. This month (May 2008) shows an increase in months supply in all except the lowest price range. The most significant increase was in the $400k+ price range where the months of supply available jumped from 21 months to 25 months. This was largely because of the increased supply of homes --- 152 homes for sale in May as opposed to only 137 in April. | |
April 2008 Home Sales In A Historical Context |
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This month's sales (April 2008) were a bit of a surprise to me. Throughout March and April I have heard about a LOT of homes that have gone under contract. I had thought we would start to see that show up in April closings, but perhaps it won't be until May or June. It is fascinating to me to see how closely most years follow the same month-to-month trend lines. The black (hollow) circle at the end of the purple line shows the 78 home sales that took place in April 2008. We saw the same April dip this year (compared to March) as we saw in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Perhaps that is because 2004 and 2005 were the years that really bucked the trends as home sales skyrocketed. Whatever the reason, home sales continue to trend as they have over the course of the past several years. Sales are happening at a slower level as compared to 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 --- but March and April of this year (2008) showed sales counts higher than in 2003. | |
Harrisonburg / Rockingham County Home Sales Report - May 2008 |
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Some observations:
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Harrisonburg Single-Property Cap Rates |
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Cap rates vary over time, as market conditions change. Here is a brief analysis of current cap rates for single properties in the Harrisonburg area as of May 2008. | |
Harrisonburg Multi-Family Cap Rates |
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Multi-family properties often provide different cap rates than single properties. Let's take a look at some recent multi-family sales in Harrisonburg . . . 1710 Park Road, Harrisonburg = 5.1% 1986 Brick quad Sold for $400,000 in February 2008 ( ($2030 per month x 12 months) - ( $1023 insurance + $2002 taxes + $1,000 repairs ) ) / $400,000 sale price 325 Colicello Street, Harrisonburg = 10.6% 1919 triplex Sold for $184,500 in April 2008 ( ($21600 per year) - ( $658 insurance + $678 taxes + $750 repairs ) ) / $184,500 000 sale price 331 Grace Street, Harrisonburg = 3.4% Duplex Sold for $282,000 in September 2007 ( ($1040 per month x 12 months) - ( $720 insurance + $1538 taxes + $500 repairs ) ) / $282,500 sale price As you can see, in multi-family properties, the cap rate is not as predictable as in singe family rental property. Related Posts: Harrisonburg Single-Property Cap Rates What Is A Cap Rate? | |
What Is A "Cap Rate"? |
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The "cap rate" or capitalization rate of a property is what I call an an "investment measure." It is a value that compares the income generated with the acquisition cost of an investment.
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Are CMA's Just For Sellers? |
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Not at all! They are for buyers as well! First, a CMA is a comparative (or "competitive", depending on who you ask) market analysis --- or, an analysis that compares one property (the "subject property") to other similar properties that have either recently sold, or are on the market. As I explain to my clients, my CMA's attempt to account for all significant aspects and characteristics of a home including square footage, functional space,age, style, condition, and more. Why would a buyer want a CMA? When making a purchase offer, sometimes buyers determine price based on what they think the seller will accept, or what would be a reasonable offer given the asking price. Ignore the asking price! That's not to say that all offers should be low offers trying to "make a deal", but consider these two examples:
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Should High Gas Costs Drive Buyer Behavior? |
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This was an interesting question posed by a friend a few weeks ago, and we took some time to do some rough analysis, which seemed to indicate NO. Here's the logic: Historically, some people who work in Harrisonburg have chosen to live outside of Harrisonburg where housing is somewhat more affordable. Two classic examples of this are Weyers Cave (14.4 miles away) and Broadway (12.9 miles away). Both Weyers Cave and Broadway have offered home buyers housing at somewhat lower prices, within a reasonable commute to Harrisonburg. But with gas costs going higher and higher, could (or should) this buyer behavior change? The distances above (14.4m, 12.9m) were city-center to town-center. We'll round up, and say the one-way commute for a fictitious commuter is 15 miles. We'll assume a somewhat gas-hungry vehicle that will drive 20 miles per gallon of gas. With current (4/29/2008) gas costs around $3.60, the one-way commute has a gas cost of $2.70. Driving both ways to and from work, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year, equates to an annual cost of $1,350. If someone lived in Harrisonburg instead (and still worked in Harrisonburg), their commute might be 3 miles, which would equate to an annual cost of $270. Thus, the cost savings in gas consumption (relative to the work commute) of living in Harrisonburg instead of Broadway or Weyers Cave is approximately $1,080 per year. That $1,080 per year, or $90 per month, if used to allow the home owner to afford a larger mortgage payment, would allow for a home purchase of $13,500 greater. That is to say that a $200,000 home ($40k down, 6% rate) would have an $1,100 monthly payment, and a $213,500 home ($40k down, 6% rate) would have an $1,190 monthly payment. So, the question then becomes, does a $200,000 home in Broadway or Weyers Cave cost $213,500 in Harrisonburg, or more, or less? Broadway: 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 1517 SF, circa 2007, garage, $199,900 http://60755.scottprogers.com Weyers Cave: 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1584 SF, circa 2003, $199,000 http://64154.scottprogers.com Harrisonburg: 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 1360 SF, circa 2002, garage, $214,900 http://62949.scottprogers.com Though the data in my example is limited, it seems that even accounting for the commuting cost of living in Broadway or Weyers Cave, you can still buy a (somewhat) larger, (somewhat) newer house in those communities as opposed to Harrisonburg. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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