Yesterday's issue of the Daily News Record included a letter to the editor from Dr. Bob Alotta commenting on the "local rock blasting" taking place at Urban Exchange -- or, as Dr. Alotta put it, "the new luxury condominiums on East Market Street."  (the site of the demolition is pictured below)



Dr. Alotta (intentionally or unintentionally) makes a few false implications:

1.  Dr. Alotta states that "Since work began on this project, the water department had to replace three sections of sewer line in the middle of Newman Avenue..." 

I guess, technically, this is true, if you consider the start of Urban Exchange when the developers started making plans for the site . . . and if you don't assume (as many did) that the sewer line replacements were a result of the Urban Exchange project. 

In fact --- the sewer line replacements were not and are not being made to allow for the development of the Urban Exchange project. 

(Source: Marilyn, at Harrisonburg Water & Sewer, 540-434-9959)

2.  Dr. Alotta goes on to say that "A gas line was also ruptured." and that "...the city shouldn't have to absorb the cost of repairs..." that the builder should. 

I am not aware of a gas line rupturing --- but as the Urban Exchange demolition and site work has begun, a gas line did need to be relocated that traversed the Urban Exchange property.  However, despite Dr. Alotta's assertion to the contrary, the developers did have to pay for this work --- not the city! 

(Source: The developers, who had to pay for the work)

For photos of the Urban Exchange progress, visit http://www.ueharrisonburg.com/photos

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Have you driven by Market Street, Mason Street or Water Street lately?  Here's what you have been missing --- lots of demolition on the Urban Exchange site . . .



Urban Exchange will be comprised of retail space, and four floors of condos and apartments.



To see more photos, visit: http://www.ueharrisonburg.com/photos.

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Another key thought from last week's Smart Growth Symposium put on the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association is that . .  .

Distributed neighborhoods, that are not integrated into the community, lead to more driving, and thus, more traffic.

Many new residential developments in this area (think of Route 33 East) are:

• built as islands, connected to the rest of the community by one main arterial road,
  
• don't have any green spaces or even sidewalks, and
  
• don't incorporate any commercial lots.

As a result, the residents have to drive to get to work, school, recreation, shopping, dining, etc.  This driving leads to greater traffic on a community's principal roadways, that could be minimized with the appropriate planning.  Some such principles are:

• Connect new developments to the larger community with more than one road.
• Incorporate green space and sidewalks into new developments for recreation and exercise.
  
• Create mixed-use developments where residents can access shopping, dining and even employment, without leaving their neighborhood.

Creating new developments adhering to the principals above, and others, will have many wonderful long term benefits to our Valley.

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Most homeowners, or those who hope to be homeowners in the future may not have paid too much attention to the news earlier this month that Harrisonburg water and sewer connection fees will be increasing. But maybe we all should have taken note . . .

The Change

Example #1: three-quarter-inch water meter --- in this example, the sum of the water and sewer connection fees will soon be $7,000, instead of the existing $2,000. This size would be typical for a single family residence.

Example #2: a six-inch water meter --- in this example, the sum of the water and sewer connection fees will soon be $300,000, instead of the existing $17,500. This size would be typical for a large commercial project.

Peruse the current fee schedule here, and the new schedule here (effective July 1, 2008).

The Effect

As Todd Rhea, of Clark & Bradshaw, commented at last week's Smart Growth Symposium, when builders or developers are faced with new fees, we're fooling ourselves if we think they absorb those costs. They ultimately get passed on to the buyer. With this logic, one could argue that city housing costs will increase universally by $5,000 come July.

Action Item

Builders and developers should note that the fees are charged at the time of obtaining the building permit --- so as long as a lot has a building permit prior to July 1, 2008, you can take advantage of the lower fee schedule.  For a developer of a major residential or commercial project, this could equate to hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings.

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I have heard some people talk about development as if in the next few years, or decades, all of Rockingham County will be developed --- with the farm land destroyed, and our history no longer preserved.

Below I'll try to put that thought in the context of actual land use, but for the record --- I don't think many at today's Smart Growth Symposium thought that the above statement is true.  (Lest anyone conclude that I am referring to any of the attendees).



The data above is extracted from the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan, particularly page 18 of the section on Strategies, Policies and Actions.

Here's the full list of how Rockingham County land is being used:

• Agriculture - 248,000 acres (46%)
• Forest - 50,000 acres (9%)
• Commercial - 4,000 acres (0.7%)
• Industrial - 1,400 acres (0.3%)
• Single Family Residential - 44,000 acres (8.2%)
• Multi-family or Duplex - 175 acres (<0.1%)
• Mobile Home Park - 1,100 acres (0.2%)
• Federal Government - 178,000 acres (33%)
• State Government - 500 acres (0.1%)
• Local Government - 1,700 acres (0.3%)
• Regional Government - 130 acres (<0.1%)
• Charitable/Religious/Education - 2,300 acres (0.4%)
• Other - 7,000 acres (1.8%)

As you can see --- much of Rockingham County will likely never be developed (33% is owned by the government) --- and we still have an extraordinary amount of undeveloped land.

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Are builders gearing up?  (Daily News Record)

Yes, and no!  Read on...

Building Permits Issued Per Year:

Year	Harrisonburg	Rockingham County
2007	748	558
2006	219	673
2005	388	785
2004	287	745

So....the number of building permits has definitely increased, BUT a large portion of the City of Harrisonburg building permits are for multi-family student housing projects.

Though not having conducted a wide survey, I would guess:

• local subcontractors might be doing o.k., if some of the out-of-town student housing developers are using them for their projects, but,
  
• local builders aren't doing as well, with much higher inventory levels (which varies by price range).
  

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Wow!  Today's Smart Growth Symposium, orchestrated by the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association was a fantastic primer on growth issues and how to plan for them in the central Shenandoah Valley. 

Stewart Schwartz, the Executive Director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, provided a great overview of smart growth principles and policies that provided a helpful framework for thinking about and planning for the future of our area. 

One key point that he made, that stuck with me, was a need to focus on developing in the right place. 

Those present included conservationists, builders, farmers, real estate agents, bankers, local planning staff, elected officials, engaged citizens, and more.  There seemed to be a great desire for and capacity to consider working together for the best future for our valley, despite the varying perspectives each of us bring to the table.

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I have had several clients inquire about Preston Lake, a mixed-use development underway just east of Harrisonburg.  I have sent a variety of information and links to online resources to these clients, but thought I'd group all of that information together in one place. 


General Information

• Official Preston Lake web site
• The Hine Group  (the developer)
• Homes for sale in Preston Lake

News Articles / Opinion Pieces

• Preston Lake 2.0  (i'm spatial, 2-16-2008)
• Smooth Sailing  (DNR, 12-14-2007)
• They're Getting Their Fiber  (DNR, 3-27-2007)
• Preston Lake, Harrisonburg, Virginia  (i'm spatial, 1-22-2007)
• Southern Northern Virginia?  (DNR, 1-11-2007)
• Preston Lake: Harrisonburg 2.0?  (hburgnews, 1-9-2007)
• Preston Lake To Wed Homes, Retail  (DNR, 1-6-2007)
• Development Seeks Specialty Shops  (DNR, 5-30-2006)

A few more notes and disclaimers:

• I have certainly not found everything that is out there --- feel free to add other links in the comments, or e-mail them to me.  (scott@cbfunkhouser.com)
  
• I have not verified the information on the web sites where these links will take you.
• The opinions expressed on said web sites are not my own.

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Per the January 18th Daily News Record, the Harrisonburg Planning Commission recommended that City Council approve a rezoning request of 72.6 acres on Stone Spring Road.

Here are a few tidbits that might shed some light on the intricacies of this story:

• First, the zoning request doesn't have a lot to do with whether or not the 1,000 residential units will be developed.  The current zoning of the property allows 1,054 residential units to be developed.  The request, per the Planning Commission agenda, was to change the zoning from R-3 to R-5C.
  
  
• Harrisonburg recently made a change to R-3 zoning that affects a developer's right to build apartment buildings on land zoned R-3.  Building apartments on land that is zoned R-3 used to be a "by-right" use, but now (for developments post July 2010) a developer would need to obtain a special use permit for apartments. Since the referenced 72.6 acre property is currently zoned R-3, without a rezoning, if the developers wanted to build apartment buildings, they would have to either:
  
• start building by 2010, or
  
• apply for a special use permit
  
  
• The above bullet point may explain why George Pace (vice mayor) is referenced as saying that "developing the site could create a short-term glut of college student housing in the city."  I think that he is inferring that the developers might opt to go ahead and start building if they can't get the re-zoning to make sure that they can build apartment buildings.
  
  
• Of note, the developers pledged not to build more than 1,054 residential units --- the same amount that are permissible under the property's current zoning.  Again -- this re-zoning does not give the property owners the ability to build additional housing.  Even without the re-zoning, they can build the 1,054 units.
  
  
• There is also mention in the DNR article that the developers might wait to develop the project until Stone Spring Road is widened.  This would be helpful, as the new housing would certainly add quite a bit of housing to that road.
  
  
• The big question here is how the timing will end up working out on this project.  Many would assume (reasonably) that this re-zoning proposal suggests that the property will be developed soon.  My theory is that the owners want to go ahead and get it re-zoned to R-5 (possibly before lots of other property owners ask for the same), but that they will then hold onto the property for several years.

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Urban Exchange, an exciting new mixed-use development, will be built with frontage on East Market Street and Mason Street --- within walking distance to downtown Harrisonburg and JMU campus.



The six-story structure will be comprised of (196) 1, 2 and 3 bedroom condos / apartments, as well as approximately 12,000 s.f. of retail space -- to house tenants such as a coffee shop, restaurant, and other retail operations.

These brand new, upscale units will be available both for sale or for lease. Amenities will include on-site parking, free internet and phone service, a state-of the-art fitness center, public space and an outdoor courtyard.

Demolition on the existing structures will begin this month, and the entire project will be complete by Summer 2009.

For more information about Urban Exchange, visit http://www.ueharrisonburg.com.

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Annexation is the process whereby land is incorporated into an existing town or city. 

There have been several annexations in Harrisonburg's history, bringing the current size of the city to 11,132 acres.  The largest annexation (7,450 acres) took place in 1983 --- shown in pink on the map below.  (Map courtesy of the City of Harrisonburg).



Title 15.2 (Counties, Cities and Towns) of the Code of Virginia outlines how annexations are to take place. 

Here are some recent annexation related news items:
Mount Crawford seeks to annex 243 acres to expand to 467 acres.
Dayton discusses annexing along Route 257.

Could Harrisonburg and Rockingham County see another annexation anytime soon?  According to Brian, Harrisonburg's Director of Economic Development says the city has no plans to annex any portion of Rockingham County (source: Daily News Record).

On a related note, according to Keith Markel, one of Harrisonburg's previous city planners, most of the zoning frustrations stem from the 1983 annexation.  Much of that land was zoned R-3, which allows anything from single family homes to apartment complexes.  However, this past year, the right to build apartment complexes in R-3 zoned land was removed.

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Over the past several years, prices of lots in eastern Rockingham County, particularly in the Peak View school district have increased dramatically.  However, in 2007, the average sales price dropped below the 2006 average sales price. 

2003:  $47,546  (81 sales)

2004:  $55,354  (112 sales)

2005:  $89,112  (98 sales)

2006:  $118,075  (51 sales)

2007:  $110,875  (35 sales)

As you can above, during this same time, demand for lots decreased rather significantly.  This was compounded by the fact that the inventory of available lots increased during the same time --- there are currently 109 lots available in the Peak View school district, as follows:

Subdivision	Lots for Sale	Average List Price
Barrington	3	$112,433
Battlefield Estates	3	$89,500
Bridlewood	2	$106,200
Crossroads Farms	22	$130,482
Givenchy Commons	10	$129,900
Great Oaks	1	$99,900
Highland Park	2	$118,700
Lakewood	1	$109,900
Magnolia Ridge	65	$117,888

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Last week the Daily News Record reported that 3,700 residential units are under construction, which seemed to be quite a bit of housing for JMU students.  

Below is a bit more information that sheds some light on the matter (facts and figures provided by Harrisonburg Community Development, summary and commentary by me) . . .

The "3,700 units" referenced in the Daily News Record includes projects in various stages ranging from recent rezonings to projects for which building permits have been issued.  Some of the housing projects included in the "3,700 units" of housing shouldn't be aligned with college student enrollment growth:

1. Some projects were included that are just about complete and occupied (parts of Liberty Square, Beacon Hill, Millwood Condos, Sunset Heights-Holmes Addt., Westfield, and Willow Ridge).

2. Some projects are not aimed at student occupancy (Christophel Properties, Founders Way Condos, Hidden Creek Apts., Hillmont Apts., Lady Slipper Ct., Beacon Hill, Liberty Square, Miller's Homestead, Millwood Condos, Park Rose Place, The Quarry, Townes of Bluestone, Townes at Wellington Park, Wishing Well Estates II).

The largest remaining projects, aimed at students would be:

Campus View Condos
(84) 2-3 BR units    
(84) 4 BR units

Copper Beach
(78) 1BR units
(78) 2BR units
(118) 3BR units
(158) 4BR units

Latitude 38
(96) 3 BR units
(132) 4 BR units

Purple and Gold TH
(132) 4 BR units

Sunchase
(24) 4 BR units

Hunters Ridge
(16)-(24) 4 BR units

Totaling these yields about 3,300 beds aimed at students, which turns the debate back to how many more JMU students will be enrolled in coming years.  I would estimate 2,800 based on JMU and SCHEV figures --- the Daily News Record continues to estimate 4,100.  No wonder developers keep coming on the scene to build more student housing!

In the end, we'll just have to wait and see which projects are actually built out.  Some developers may decide to hold off on their projects as they learn more about the market, or as their bankers learn more about increasing vacancy rates.

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In most situations, it's o.k. if we aren't working with an exact number for JMU enrollment.  However, many developers are currently spending a lot of money to build thousands of housing units in Harrisonburg --- many of which are intended to be occupied by JMU students.

When you dig into the numbers, it starts looking like we will have a significant over-supply of college housing in the coming years . . .

How Many Bedrooms??

Per today's Daily News Record, "more than 3,700 residential-housing units are under construction or in various stages of approval" --- of which 2,985 are apartments or townhouses.  However, many of these are not 1-bedroom housing units, but 2, 3, or 4 bedroom.  We'll assume for a moment that they average out at 2 bedrooms per unit.  This provides us with 5,970 "beds" to fill --- and the article later states that by 2013, the city will need 2,500 additional beds for JMU students.  Hmmmm.......so far that's 3,470 extra beds --- and I hope they aren't finished too quickly!

What Is Headcount?

The second problem (for developers spending lots of money on building these housing units) is that the figures being used for JMU enrollment can be a bit deceiving.  The above-referenced article references 2013 enrollment as 21,500. 

The only enrollment projection I can find on SCHEV's web site close to 21,500 is the "Total Fall Headcount".  This is defined by SCHEV as "A student enrolled for more than zero credit hours in courses offered for degree or certificate credit, or a student who meets the criteria for classification as a remedial student."  My understanding is that this would include faculty or staff taking one (or more) class(es), students studying abroad, local residents taking one (or more) class(es), etc.  All of these categories of "fall headcounts" wouldn't at all contribute to a demand for student housing.  The Total Fall Headcount shows 21,542 students in 2013.

For the best "living in Harrisonburg, needing student housing" enrollment figures, I am almost always pointed to the "Regular Session Full-Time Equivalent" data, which is defined by SCHEV as "A calculation of enrollment based on total credit hours taken byundergraduates and first professionals divided by 30 and added to totalgraduate credit hours divided by 24. Includes fall and spring semestersonly, does not include summer term enrollments. May be broken out by onand off-campus activity."  This is a calculation to get a lot closer to the number of full time students will be attending JMU --- and these numbers show 19,333 students in 2013.

Does it matter, or are we just splitting hairs?

If you explore SCHEV's Enrollment Projections, you'll see that there are a lot of figures that can be used for estimating future JMU enrollment figures.  My concern is that the figure that developers are using for their decisions is the highest number available -- and one that counts people who would not be seeking student housing.

I can understand that the City and the Daily News Record use that highest figure in many situations, but when student housing developers use it for planning purposes, it may be a cause for concern.

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Construction is booming on Old Furnace Road --- making way for "Latitude 38", a 228-unit, 800+ bedroom complex of student housing for JMU students. 

Some public details of the development were highlighted in the Daily News Record in August.  The project is being developed by Franklin Holdings out of Charlotte, NC. 

Apparently they developers didn't read this, as they reference an increase of 4,000 students "over the next few years", whereas SCHEV's FTE Regular Session numbers would suggest that even all the way through 2013/2014 we'll only see a growth of 2,787 students.

One thing is for sure --- students at James Madison University will certainly have a lot of housing choices in the coming years!

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Harrisonburg is putting financial incentives in place to encourage development in downtown Harrisonburg. According to the Daily News Record (DNR) on November 14, 2007, City Council is considering extending tax break incentives to developers who are building new structures downtown. Here's the math, as I see it, per the article....

A developer invests $10M in constructing a new building to get eight year waiver of tax assessments. If the assessed value were also $10M, the total waived taxes would be $472,000 ($10M / 100 * .59 * 8). That comes out at a nearly 5% savings over 8 years --- not bad!

This new proposal would be similar to the city's existing program for renovating downtown buildings. These financial incentives led to the re-development of the City Exchange building (now apartments and a restaurant). Per the DNR, "Real estate developer Barry Kelley said the historic building incentives were critical to his projects, including the renovation of the City Exchange building into apartments and a restaurant."

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Harrisonburg may soon see a high rise on the corner of Port Republic Road and Devon Lane. To the best of my knowledge, this would be the first seven-story (or higher) building for college students and other renters in Harrisonburg. It will have some great benefits for its tenants -- proximity to campus, a game room, a computer area, exercise area, and more.

According to the Daily News Record, the building will feature 274 bedrooms, and only floors two through six with have apartments, with commercial space on the first floor.

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