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New Listings in Harrisonburg (and Rockingham County) |
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![]() Keep your finger on the pulse of new listings in Harrisonburg (and Rockingham County) by exploring the most recent listings at.... NewListingsInHarrisonburg.comOr -- receive a daily email with all new listings from that day.... Sign up for a daily email with all new listingsAs we move into the Spring market, we'll start to see quite a few homes coming on the market. I will be monitoring new listings, and you can as well! | |
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Two (of four) price ranges are well balanced (between buyers and sellers) in our local housing market. |
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![]() Six months of housing supply is considered to be an indicator of a balanced housing market. That is to say that if we look at the average number of buyers buying per month (I prefer to look at it over a 12 month period) and then divide that into the number of active listings in that price range....
As shown above, we're in a relatively well balanced state in the "$0 - $200K" price range (we have been for a while now) and we have recently become much more balanced in the $300K - $400K price range due to some recent recovery in that segment of our local market. Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF.... | |
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The most quickly recovering price range is.... |
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![]() This might surprise you, but the price range that has seen the most significant year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales is homes priced between $300K and $400K. Anyone want to volunteer some theories on why we're seeing this recovery in this price range at this time in the market? Read more about our local housing market in my monthly market report. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF.... ![]() | |
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March 2015 Monthly Housing Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 12108 Rabbits Foot Road I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() First, the big picture trends thus far this year show signs of a healthy, growing market....
![]() Both January and February of this year appear as "middle of the pack" months when put in the context of 2012, 2013 and 2014. The sales trajectory we see in March and April will be a good indicator of how the rest of this year will turn out. Last year, we experienced somewhat slower than expected home sales all the way until May when the monthly sales pace started popping up above previous years. I am hopeful we will see an earlier start to the 2015 market. ![]() Hooray for lots of buyers in February 2015 -- signing contracts, that is. A whopping 98 contracts were signed in February 2015, compared to only 75 last February. This is an excellent indicator that we should see strong (closed) sales activity in March and April of this year. ![]() As shown above, inventory levels continued to decline (slightly) over the past month -- and are now down 1.6% as compared to a year ago at this time. We are likely to see these inventory levels start to rise over the next few months. OK, now for some action items.... SELLERS: All of the snow in your yard should be melted within 24 to 48 hours. If you are going to be listing your home for sales this Spring, consider trying to get the advantage of getting your house on the market early, when you'll have less competition from other sellers. Let's meet (soon!) to discuss timing, pricing, marketing and what else you should consider doing to prepare your home for the market. BUYERS: We will see lots of exciting listings coming on the market in the next 30 - 60 days. Are you ready? Have you talked to a lender to become prequalified? Have we met to discuss your hopes, goals and dreams and your next home? Let's start looking at some houses now so that when your dream house comes on the market you have a good context for whether it is a good deal or a great deal. Above all, if you will be buying or selling soon, I encourage you to become a student of the housing market. Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. You can continue your studies by reading the entire March 2015 market report online, or by downloading the PDF. Also, if you're interested in working with me to buy or sell a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, you can always reach me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or 540-578-0102. | |
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JMU Enrollment projected to surpass 20K in 2017 |
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![]() Based on enrollment projections approved by the State Council of High Education for Virginia and published by JMU, on campus enrollment is set to continue to increase in coming years, surpassing 20K students for the first time in the 2017-18 academic year. Of the variety of different figures that exist within the enrollment projections, the "Total On-Campus Headcount" is typically seen as the most pertinent relative to our local housing market. This figure is the best reflection of the number of students who will need housing, either on JMU campus, or off campus. These figures, and their changes over time, are the best numbers to be using when analyzing the need for off campus student housing in Harrisonburg. Read more about student housing in Harrisonburg, past, present and future here. | |
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Does lingering snow keep housing inventory low? |
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![]() Have you heard? We might get another 6 inches of snow!?! I have met with a variety of homeowners over the past two weeks who are planning to put their houses on the market "this Spring" -- though the timing is coming into question, with this snow that just won't seem to melt. And....we're apparently going to get some more tomorrow. Which begs the question - are we seeing significantly lower inventory levels than we usually see at this time of year based on the snowfall? In short, not necessarily. Above, you'll see that current inventory levels (546 homes for sale) are just about the same spot they were a year ago. Though, you might recall that we also had a rather bitter winter last year -- so perhaps these 550/546 level is a depressed level compared to a normal level of around 600 - 650 based on 2012 and 2013? All I can say is that I'll be glad (as will my seller clients) when the snow has all come and gone, and the grass starts getting greener, and the flowers start to bloom. | |
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An extremely detailed analysis of buying vs renting |
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![]() This calculator on the NY Times website (find it here) is the most detailed such calculator that I have seen in a long time. It takes many (MANY!) factors into account. If you're torn as to whether to buy or rent, feel free to check out the calculator, or set up a time to meet with me and we can discuss it together. | |
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What did home buyers buy in February 2015? |
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![]() How did buyer activity and seller activity compare in January 2015?
And focusing in on those buyers, what exactly did they buy last month? ![]() | |
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Home Sales Preview: February 2015 |
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![]() Looking back at sales in recent months we find that.... Sales during 4 out of the last 5 months exceeded sales in the same month from the prior year, with January 2015 being even with January 2014. The current month, however, has thus far not been as exciting. We'll need to see quite a few more sales recorded in the MLS over the next few days (that closed in February) in order to come up on par with last February. Stay tuned for my monthly market report, or feel free to catch up by reviewing last months' market report. | |
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Townhouse (duplex, condo) buyers from 2008 may have to wait until 2018 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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![]() Yesterday I ran an analysis on single family home values -- which suggested that home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price. Today, we're answering a similar question for townhouses.... So, let's say one bought a townhouse in 2008or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a townhouse to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your townhouse depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2005) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their townhouse -- and people who bought between 2006 and 2010 have a lower home value today. Townhouse buyers in recent years (2011-2013) are doing just fine. So, back to the question at hand -- how long it will take townhouses to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. This analysis shows that....
And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
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Home buyers from 2006 may have to wait until 2020 to see their home value return to the original purchase price |
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![]() OK, my apologies in advance for the slightly depressing nature of this blog post. This is the third in a series of three -- and I'm only going here because someone (Brad!?!) asked the question, so I thought I'd run the analysis to shed some light on his inquiry. Brad's question.... So, let's say one bought a house in 2009 (hypothetically, of course, right?!)... Or any of the other "red" years above. What's the thought on a reasonable expectation for a house to at least recover the value to the purchase price (and then, of course, hopefully, higher)? Not that you have a crystal ball, but in general?OK, so, first of all -- the values in the middle (red and green) column above are showing the potential current value of your home depending on when in the past 15 years you purchased the home. Basically, those folks who purchased before (2000-2004) the real estate boom have higher home values now than when they purchased their home -- and most people who bought since then do not have a higher home value today. That is because after single family home values peaked in 2006, they have been slowly (slowly!!) drifting downward since that time. (details here) So, back to Brad, he is wondering how long it will take homes to return to the value that they had when they were purchased. As shown above in the right (grey and yellow) column, we can sort of guess as what that time frame will look like if we assume that home values will increase 3% per year over the next five (etc.) years. Working our ways sort of backwards, this analysis shows that....
OK, enough for now. Hopefully this is a helpful look at the implications of shifting market values over time. If you have a question about the value of your home, please let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you to give you some specific feedback pertinent to your home -- as compared to the generalities referenced above. And, for the data lovers out there, feel free to peruse lots of market indicators and graphs at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. P.S. Don't like the harsh realities presented herein? Complain to Brad. :) | |
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Recent townhouse buyers should be smiling! |
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![]() As a continuation of yesterday's analysis, it is worth pointing out that townhouse buyers over the past three years (2011-2013) should be quite pleased with their purchase. Their townhouse is likely to be worth 6% - 13% more than when they bought it -- based on overall increases we have seen in the median sales price of attached dwellings over the past several years. As noted yesterday, the chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Of course, your townhouse may have performed (from a value perspective) differently than this chart would suggest. These calculations are based on median sales prices during the given time periods. | |
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If you bought in X then your house is likely now worth Y |
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![]() The chart above is calculated based on comparing the median sales price in 2014 to the median sales price in each of the prior 14 years. Several key points to take away from this chart....
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Potential changes to Interstate 81 at Exits 245 and 247 |
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![]() The Harrisonburg-Rockingham Metropolitan Planning Organization (HRMPO) is studying potential interchange modifications on Interstate 81 at Exit 245 (State Route 253/Port Republic Road) and Exit 247 (U.S. Route 33/East Market Street). Read all about the potential changes and access fun maps like that above (and below) at this link.... I-81 Exits 245 & 247 Interchange Alternatives Analysis Study Here is one proposal for a reconstructed Exit 245.... ![]() | |
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Protect Your Water Lines |
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![]() It is (ridiculously) cold out there! Here are some quick tips from Harrisonburg's Public Utilities Department.... Ways to Prevent Pipes from Freezing:
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Would your hazard insurance policy protect your house if Paddington stayed overnight? |
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![]() Emily and I went to see Paddington yesterday - quite a fun movie. Mr. Brown wisely calls his hazard insurance company to make sure that his policy will provide coverage for any damage caused by his overnight guest, Paddington. It is not entirely clear whether he is successful in adding "talking-bear-as-an-overnight-guest" coverage to his policy before Paddington sleds down the spiral staircase in the bathtub. :) So, if Paddington is staying at your house overnight, please call your insurance company first - and then call me - Emily and I would like to stop by to say hello. While you're waiting for Paddington to arrive (perhaps eating a marmalade sandwich?) here are some answers to a few common questions about homeowners insurance (hazard insurance).... My lender's Good Faith Estimate includes a price for hazard insurance - will I be obtaining insurance from my mortgage company?
Why do I have to pay for an entire year of homeowners insurance at closing when I purchase my home?
OK, but then, why does my Good Faith Estimate indicate I'm paying for another three months of insurance even beyond the first year's premium??
What happens to all of this money I'm paying in advance when I sell my house?
Why does my lender escrow funds for taxes and insurance, anyhow?
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Signing Contracts in the Snow |
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![]() This snowfall has nothing on last year's bitter, winter cold temperatures -- at least as far as home sales go. As noted above, there were significantly fewer contracts signed between the first 45 days of the year in 2014 (86 contracts) as compared to the previous year (101 contracts) and as compared to this year (122 contracts). | |
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Current Mortgage Interest Rates Are Ridiculously, Historically Low |
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![]() Average interest rates edged up last week (from 3.59% to 3.69%) but from a historical perspective, they are still ridiculously low.... ![]() Thus, the opportunity persists to lock in your housing costs at very, very low levels. Looking for a referral for a great local lender? Email me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com for several recommendations. | |
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Analysis of Current Listings (Active and Under Contract) |
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Inventory levels are down 2.3% over this time last year. There are currently 671 active and under contract listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Let's take a closer look at the details of those homes for sale.... ![]() Search for New Listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Or, browse houses with recent price reductions. | |
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Back the Burg with this Sweet Harrisonburg print |
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![]() Click here to pre-order this fantastic print created by Back The Burg, a company that was created "to bring all past and present residents of Harrisonburg unique products that build community pride and support our historic downtown." All Back The Burg profits are donated to the Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance. Here is a description, from the artists, of this first product from Back The Burg.... "Sweet Harrisonburg" was our first product concept and we are so excited to share it with you! We wanted to create a screen print that embodied the Harrisonburg culture and was worthy to hang in any Harrisonburg lover's home. We brought on Matt and Jeff, two local designers, to put their skills to work on this idea and their concept came together very nicely. There are so many things that make Harrisonburg special and this print brings just about every one of those together. This one-of-a-kind print is a two-color screen printed piece of art inked on a piece of 12″ X 18″ heavy construction paper. We only have a limited supply, so get yours before we run out!Click here to pre-order your print today! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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