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Will May 2014 Contracts Revive The 2014 Market? |
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As shown above, year-to-date home sales are down this year (233) as compared to last year (284). Many suspect that the long, cold winter may have made the first few months of the year slower than they would have otherwise been. Per that theory, we should see a huge rebound in contracts (now / recently / soon) to help the 2014 market catch back up with where the 2013 market was last year. Let's see what we're seeing thus far.... April contract numbers were strong in 2014, but not as strong as in 2013....
Now, let's look at the first 15 days of May, this year versus last year....
As you can see, over the past 45 days buyers have been buying at the same pace (actually a bit slower) than last year. Thus far we're not seeing a rebound of higher buying numbers than last year at this time. So, the big question -- we've seen an 18% decline in YTD sales so far in 2014 -- will that remain at -18% for the rest of the year? Will 2014 pull even for no gain or loss? Somewhere in between? Theories, predictions and guesses are welcome! | |
Sellers believe the local housing market is recovering |
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The graph above examines the trend in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham over the past seven years. After three years of declining inventory levels (2011, 2012, 2013) we are now finally seeing inventory levels starting to increase again. This likely means....
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Puzzling start to 2014 for local housing market |
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Featured Property: 1103 Dices Spring Road, Weyers Cave, VA I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market and thus far, 2014 is not as exciting of a year as 2013 was for our local housing market. Click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF -- or read on for some highlights.... 2013 was an encouraging year in the local housing market. After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we finally saw a (strong!) rebound in the home sales activity. Now, however, with four months of 2014 behind us, we are facing a very different trend when comparing year over year trends -- the pace of home sales has declined 18% year-over-year. This could be the result of the icy winter weather in 2014... but that is becoming a less likely theory as we move through Spring. The next theory I'll throw out is that 2013 was a rebound year, with higher than normal sales volume, and 2014 is is reverting back to the slow upward trend that began in 2011. Even though it's not highlighted in yellow above, we should also note that prices seem to be improving year-to-date, with a 3% increase in median sales price. Going back to the rebound theory -- the blue line in this graph shows the month-by-month sales experienced during 2013. As is quickly evident, last year's home sales were head and shoulders above any other recent year of home sales. Home sales this year (red) certainly look rather unexciting in comparison to last year (2013) though when taken within the context of 2012 (green) we see that there has been an improvement when looking at a 24 month differential. Again, this may indicate that 2013 was a year of our marketing bouncing back and burning through old inventory, but that the 2013 sales pace was not sustainable moving forward. Now, here are your teasers to encourage you to read the rest of this data filled report....
There's much, much more. Read it online (here) or download the PDF (here) and as always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
Buyers are signing lots of contracts thus far in May 2014 |
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Contracts are being signed quickly in May 2014 (40 contracts in 8 days) --- which shows a solid upwards trend for the first five months of the year if we extrapolate to a potential total for May (155?) based on this strong pace of contract activity within the first week (+) of May. | |
Understanding Radon |
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Radon is a colorless, odorless gas that can cause cancer -- in fact, it is the second leading cause of lung cancer after cigarette smoking! Radon quickly disperses in air, reducing its danger, but if it accumulates in a basement or other living space, it can be quite problematic. One of the main sources of radon gas is from a variety of types of rock, such as granite and shale. And thus, people have begun to wonder whether granite counter tops might pose a risk! Click here to download A Citizen's Guide To Radon, a publication from the EPA on how to protect yourself and your family from Radon. | |
Beautiful Water Filled Quarry in Harrisonburg |
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Tucked away over on Linda Lane (and Smithland Road) is this beautiful body of water. Who knows, maybe there will eventually be a mixed use development around it!? | |
History of the Street Names in Highland Park Subdivision |
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What do these street names have in common? What is their connection?
They were all names of General Robert E. Lee's horses! A bit more of the story can be found here....
Search for homes in Highland Park here. Thanks for the heads up, Mary Kaye! | |
Understanding Lead Based Paint |
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Many houses and apartments built before 1978 have paint that contains high levels of lead (called lead-based paint). Lead from paint, chips, and dust can pose serious health hazards if not taken care of properly. Click here to download a full guide from the EPA on how to Protect Your Family From Lead In Your Home. | |
Long Term Mortgage Interest Rates Seem QUITE Stable |
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Mortgage interest rates seem to be QUITE stable between 4% and 4.5%. Let's keep them there! This continues to be a great time to buy relative to locking in your housing costs at historically low levels. That said, you do need to think about how much you should spend on your next home. Talk to me, or talk to a mortgage lender, to get that conversation started. | |
Go back in time with Google Street View |
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You can now go back in time with Google Street View, exploring how Harrisonburg's streetscape has changed over the years. Above, you will note the changes on Grace Street. Court Square also has a new look, with the transformation of 1 Court Square into the offices for Harrisonburg City Public Schools. The historical Street View data goes back as far as 2008 for some areas in Harrisonburg. How do you explore this fun historical drive through Harrisonburg? When you are in Google Street View, just click on the clock icon shown above to select a different time frame. | |
Homes in Old Town Harrisonburg |
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Many buyers consider living in Old Town Harrisonburg, to be within walking distance of all that downtown Harrisonburg offers. This "Old Town" neighborhood is generally considered to be bounded by Main Street, Market Street, Myers Avenue and Martin Luther King Jr Way. Click here to explore homes for sale in Old Town Harrisonburg. | |
Inventory Up 17% Over the Past Two Months |
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Finally, the weather is warming up, and homeowners are putting their houses on the market. Inventory levels are starting to increase in the typical spring surge. Good for buyers --- more options. Not quite as good for sellers --- more competition. | |
9.5% Increase In City Real Estate Tax Rate? |
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The City of Harrisonburg may increase its tax rate from $0.63 (per $100 of assessed value) to $0.69. This would be a 9.5% increase in real estate taxes for property owners in the City of Harrisonburg. This would still leave us with a very low tax rate compared to many other areas around Virginia:
As noted in today's in depth article in the Daily News Record: Under the fiscal 2015 proposal to raise the rate 6 cents, the owner of a city home valued at $ 150,000 will pay $ 1,035 in real estate taxes, compared to $ 945 now. A house valued at $ 200,000 will be taxed at $ 1,380 next year, according to the draft. That owner pays $ 1,260 now.Read the DNR article here, and view the proposed City budget here. | |
How much SHOULD you spend on your next home? |
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There are LOTS of ways to answer this question, usually within the context of a monthly payment....
These conversations can be had with your spouse, with your loan officer, with me, etc. -- the important part, however, is to have these conversations. We need to know how much money you want to spend on your new home, so that we can be looking for the right houses for you! | |
Harrisonburg is GROWING, quickly |
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Per NerdWallet, Harrisonburg is Virginia's fastest growing City. Set in the Blue Ridge Mountains in northwestern Virginia, Harrisonburg's 32.1% income growth, plus growth in population and jobs sent it to the top of our list. The area has a farming tradition, but science and academics are now leading industries in town. DBT Data operates a cyber integration center in Harrisonburg and SRI International, a bioscience research corporation, recently expanded its offices in town. The area is also home to James Madison University, which has an enrollment of more than 18,000 students per year. City planners project that Harrisonburg will claim more than 60,000 residents by 2030. In preparation for new residents and future growth, the city is following its Harrisonburg Downtown Renaissance plan to make downtown Harrisonburg a destination for the region and an engine of economic growth. The whole city's pitching in- volunteers have logged more than 85,000 volunteer hours so far on the project.Per the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Chamber of Commerce, we are also one of the top 20 emerging metro areas. | |
Growth in City of Harrisonburg Elementary Schools |
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Enrollment grew over 15% in elementary schools in the City of Harrisonburg over the past five years. Read more at Old South High and read about some of the potential reasons at StatChat blog from the Weldon Cooper Center. | |
No change proposed for real estate tax rates in Rockingham County |
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Per the proposed budget published in the Daily News Record on 04/14/2014, Rockingham County is not proposing an increase in the real estate tax rate. If the budget is approved as proposed, the tax rate would remain at $0.64 per $100 of assessed value. Click here to view the entire proposed budget. | |
Changes in Number of Homes For Sale, By Price Range |
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Above you can see the changes in inventory levels over the past year in four price ranges.... Under $200K (-1%)
$200K - $300K (-15%)
$300K - $400K (+50%)
Over $400K (+13%)
Learn plenty more about our local housing market at HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com. | |
Home Sales Still Soft at Start of Spring Selling Season |
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Featured Property: 310 Victoria Drive, Bridgewater, VA 22812 I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market -- click here to review the entire report online -- or click here to download the full PDF. Below are a few highlights you might be interested to know about.... As shown above, home sales in March were the lowest that we have seen over the past several years. This is undoubtedly due to the absurdly low temperatures this winter PLUS the many snowfalls PLUS the many days that schools were closed. Now that the warmer weather is upon us we will hopefully see an increase in home sales come April and May. We also saw a smaller number (91) of buyers sign contracts during March as compared to last March (114) --- though an increase from March 2012 (87). Let's hope that the warm Spring days of April will lead to many (many!) buyers going to see houses and sign contracts. A significant part of whether buyers will write offers is related to whether they are finding compelling houses on the market -- and we're finally starting to see increases in inventory levels. These new listings will hopefully rejuvenate buyer interest and get them off of the sidelines and into the buying market. Amidst a few market indicators that aren't as positive as they could be, here is one bright spot --- sales prices of attached dwellings (duplexes, townhouses, condominiums) are going UP! Want to know more? Get all the juicy details in the full report. Read it online or download the PDF. As always, if you're interested in talking to me about buying a home in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.....or if you are interested in selling your current home.....just drop me a line by email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
$1.55 Million Purchase by JMU on South Mason Street |
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JMU (the James Madison University Board of Visitors) recently closed on the purchase of a property on the corner of South Mason Street and Martin Luther King, Jr. This purchase included an unimproved parcel of land, as well as a parcel of land improved by the building pictured above. The property that was recently purchased is situated between what used to be Rockingham Memorial Hospital (and is now the University Health Center, etc.) and a parcel of land on South Main Street owned by JMU that has been discussed as the potential site of a hotel and conference center ("Hotel Madison"). How can you know about these interesting property transfers? To stay up to date on property transfers in this area, simply visit HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com and subscribe to the weekly email list to receive these updates. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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