Selling
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It Does Not Seem That Home Prices Are Declining, Overall, But Some Sellers May Elect To Sell At Lower Than Expected Prices |
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 The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has risen 10% over the past year. That's an increase from $292,000 to $322,750. As such, it really does not seem that home prices are declining, overall. But... some (but likely not many or most) sellers may elect to sell at lower than expected prices. Here's why... Let's say you're selling a home priced at $322,750 that you purchased five years ago. That $322,750 is the median sales price... so let's just walk it backwards to imagine what your home might have been worth 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years ago. Today = $322,750 1 Year Ago = $291,950 2 Years Ago = $265,700 3 Years Ago = $238,400 4 Years Ago = $215,250 5 Years Ago = $212,000 So... you bought your home for $212,000. Last year you estimated it was worth $291,950... a $79,950 gain in four years. Today you estimate it to be worth $322,750... a $110,750 gain in five years. So, if you are selling your house today, and you price it at $322,750... and it doesn't go under contract within the first few weeks... or not within the first month or two... will you keep it priced at $322,750 indefinitely? Likely not. You -- and some other sellers -- would likely be happy to sell for somewhere between $291,950 and $322,750. Selling (this fictional house) for $291,950 is certainly quite a bit below where we believe the value to be today, but it is also a $79,950 gain in five years. All this is to say, that if you are serious about selling, and you have your house on the market, and it hasn't gone under contract... we shouldn't get too stuck on what your house should be worth today, and what it is worth today... we should evaluate the price at which it makes sense for you to sell... and how we might price it to have it go ahead and go under contract... even if that is at a lower price than we might otherwise expect. Put more simply... home sellers from three or more years ago potentially have a LOT of equity to play with when pricing their home to sell... and can likely tweak the pricing to motivate a buyer to go ahead and commit to buying. | |
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Real Estate Seemed Like A Liquid Asset For A While There, But That Was Not Normal |
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 A liquid asset is an asset that can be easily converted into cash in a short amount of time. Is real estate a liquid asset? Nope. Did it feel like it was during 2020, 2021 and 2022? Yep. For a few years there, you could list your home for sale, it would almost certainly go under contract VERY quickly, with very favorable terms, with few contingencies, and would almost certainly get to closing. Real estate felt like a liquid asset. You could sell most any house and could "convert it into cash" within 30 to 45 days without much difficulty. But... we're not quite there any longer. Many houses -- but not all -- will still go under contract very quickly. We are starting to see many more inspection contingencies and/or appraisal contingencies. You may very well be able to convert your real estate (house) into cash within 30 to 45 days -- but you can't be as confident that it will definitely happen in very short order with very few speed bumps. And... that's normal. Real estate is not a liquid asset. It just felt like it was for a few years. | |
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A Return To The Question Of Whether To Take Your House Off The Market For The Holidays |
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 For a few years now, just about every new listing was going under contract in a matter of days, regardless of the time of year it was listed for sale. Big house, small house, high price, low price, good condition, not so good condition, big yard, small yard, flat driveway, steep driveway, optimistically priced, realistically priced, listed in April, listed in December -- everything was going under contract quickly. But now, some homes are coming on the market and are NOT going under contract right away. It might have even been 30, 60 or 90 days that some have been on the market without a buyer making an offer. Some such sellers are now returning to the question of whether to take their property off the market for the holidays. After all, if we aren't having many showings, maybe it makes sense to take the house off the market for a few months and start afresh in early Spring? It will be interesting to see if inventory levels drop as we get past Thanksgiving and/or as we get past Christmas. In years gone by we would often see these houses that were coming off the market for the holidays either vanishing in mid/late November (just before Thanksgiving) or in mid December (just before Christmas). | |
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Buyer Demand Still Exceeds Housing Supply, But Not For All Properties |
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 In 2020, 2021 and 2022, almost every new listing had LOTS of interest and likely had multiple offers. There was some variation by price range and property type, but they were all quite favorable scenarios for sellers and quite frustrating scenarios for would be buyers. For example, with three fictional properties at different price points or in different locations or of different property types, etc., here's how the first week might look... First Property = 30 showings, 10 offers Second Property = 20 showings, 5 offers Third Property = 10 showings, 2 offers Again, great fun for sellers, no fun for buyers... mostly brought on by super low mortgage interest rates and Covid-induced changes in how people thought about the space they needed or wanted in their homes. Today, things are a bit different... mortgage interest rates are much higher (twice as high as their recent low point) and a global pandemic is no longer stretching our use of our homes in quite the same ways. This is resulting in a slightly different market response to those same fictional properties in week one of being on the market... First Property = 10 showings, 4 offers Second Property = 3 showings, 1 offer Third Property = 1 showing, no offers As represented above, we're seeing several dynamics here... [1] Some properties are still seeing lots of buyer interest and are having multiple offers the first week they are on the market. [2] Some properties are seeing a few showings in the first week, one of which results in an offer from a buyer who is happy to go ahead and move forward with purchasing the home. [3] Some properties are having very few showings the first week, and no offers. Seller #1 is still delighted. Seller #2 is quite satisfied and decides they are OK not having had multiple offers because they just needed one buyer. Seller #3 might think their house will never sell, might wish they sold their house a year ago, might be discouraged, might be frustrated, might be surprised. My general advice for Seller #3 is to remember the market before 2020... it often took a few weeks or a few months for many properties to sell. That's OK. Be patient. Collect feedback from buyers who are coming to look at your home. Make adjustments to your home's condition, marketing and/or price to best appeal to prospective buyers. But again, be patient. We're not in 2020-2022 any longer. | |
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Maybe We Will See Seasonal Declines In Housing Inventory Levels Again This Year? |
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 All the way through 2019, we would see a seasonal decline in housing inventory levels each winter. Inventory levels would typically be the lowest between November and February as some sellers took their homes off the market for a few months -- and as some sellers decided to wait until spring to sell their homes. But then between 2020 and 2022, that all changed. The real estate market was on FIRE as Covid-induced work/life/home changes and super low mortgage interest rates pushed more buyers than ever into the housing market. Inventory levels that had been dropping for several years (2016 - 2019) dropped even further. All of a sudden, inventory levels were ALWAYS low. Spring and summer inventory levels - low. Fall and winter inventory levels - low. We stopped seeing seasonal shifts in housing inventory levels. But over the past few months inventory levels have been drifting back upwards a bit. So, as we (eventually?) start to see cooler temperatures, will we start to see seasonal declines in housing inventory levels again? | |
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Many (Most) Home Sellers Are Adjusting Their List Price If Their Home Is Not Under Contract Within 30 Days |
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 Here's how I get to the conclusion above... Today, there are... 200 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County per the HRAR MLS. Of those 200 active listings... 116 homes have been on the market for 30+ days. Of those 116 listings that have been on the market for a month or more... 65 homes have seen a price reduction in the past 30 days. So, yes, it would seem that many (most -- 56%) home sellers are adjusting their list price if their home is not under contract within 30 days. It makes sense... If a buyer hasn't made an offer, a price reduction may... 1. Cause existing buyers to reconsider your home. 2. Cause a new buyer consider your home for the first time. 3. Cause a buyer who has viewed your home to make an offer. Should all home sellers reduce their list price after 30 days on the market? Not necessarily. Should it be a discussion about the merits of making such a price change? Absolutely! | |
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How Many Homes Are Selling For Less Than The List Price? |
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 If we look at homes that have sold in the past six months... [1] 68% have sold for the list price or higher. [2] 32% have sold for less than the list price. [3] 40% have sold for over list price. Maybe several of these stats surprise you. Maybe none of them do. I think the most surprising to me is that 32% of homes sold for less than the list price. If often feels like buyers are barely ever able to negotiate on price -- and sellers are barely ever willing to negotiate on price. Interestingly, let's look back a year and a half (ish) to 2021 when mortgage interest rates were in the 3.something range...  The numbers here are certainly different, though not quite as different as you might imagine. For all the homes that sold in 2021... [1] 73% sold for the list price or higher. [2] 27% sold for less than the list price. [3] 43% sold for over list price. So... is every home selling over asking price? Nope. Back in the crazy times of 2021, was every home selling over asking price? Nope. | |
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If Your Home Has Not Sold We Should Look At What Buyers Are Actually Buying |
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 As an aside... the market is definitely shifting in some ways... as we are no longer seeing every house go under contract in hours or days with multiple offers. We're still not seeing prices adjust, overall, but some homes are sitting on the market longer than they would have over the past few years. That nuance aside... let's say your house is listed for sale, and it just hasn't sold after 30, 60 or 90 days. How should we think about that? What information would be helpful in understanding why your house has not sold? I believe context is key here... [1] How many buyers have contracted to buy homes that are similar to your house since your house has been on the market. If you are selling a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2000 SF home -- let's look at how many buyers have contracted to buy 3 - 4 bedroom, 2 - 3 bathroom, 1800 - 2500 SF homes in the same timeframe that you have been trying to sell your home. Have lots of buyers contracted to buy similar homes? Or just a few? How have the prices of those other homes compared to your list price? [2] How many other sellers of similar homes are trying to sell their homes right now? If you are selling a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2000 SF home -- let's look at how many other sellers are trying to sell a 3 - 4 bedroom, 2 - 3 bathroom, 1800 - 2500 SF home right now. Do you have lots of competition? Or not very much? How do the list prices of those competing homes compare to your list price? -- As the local housing market continues to shift over the coming months it will be important to understand the context in which you are selling your home and making sure you are pricing and marketing your home in a way that will give it the best chance to sell relative to what buyers are buying and what other sellers are trying to sell. | |
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Home Buyers Might Not Request Showings Of Your Home With Minutes. Gasp! |
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 Looking back, one of the humorous things about the (crazy) real estate market in 2020, 2021 and 2022 was how quickly buyers would jump on every new listing when it hit the market. When I would launch a new listing for sale via the MLS, Realtor.com, Zillow, local and national websites, Facebook, etc. -- I would invariably start getting showing requests within the first 15 minutes. It was surreal how quickly home buyers were responding to new listings, running out to go see them that very first day that they were listed for sale. After all... there would often be 20 - 30 showings within the first three days, and 5 to 15 offers within the first three days... so it's not surprising that the showing requests would roll in so quickly. But now, it's back to pre-Covid normals, at least in this regard. When a new listing is launched, I will often have a showing request or two within the first few hours or on that day -- but my phone doesn't immediately blow up with texts from buyer agents in that first 15 minutes any longer. Certainly, the speed at which showings are requested, and the number of showings that are requested varies by price range, location and more -- but the requests aren't starting off quite as quickly as they were during the Covid era. | |
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Price Changes, Even If Small, Can Remind Buyers That You Really Do Want To Sell Your Home |
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 Consider these two listings that a buyer might be considering in today's market... Home #1 A home priced at $435K that has been on the market for 75 days without a price change. Home #2 A home priced at $425K that has been on the market for 75 days and... [1] was initially listed for $439,000 [2] was reduced to $435,000 after being on the market for 30 days [3] was reduced to $429,000 after being on the market for 45 days [4] was reduced to $425,000 after being on the market for 60 days Certainly, buyers are going to see a $10K difference between the two homes ($435K vs. $425K) but they are also likely going to believe that the sellers of the second home are more motivated to sell. A seller who has priced their home at $435K and who hasn't budged at all is likely more motivated to sell for a particular price than they are motivated to make sure that their home sells. A seller who has made several price adjustments to their home over time is signaling to potential home buyers that they are definitely motivated to sell and want to be sure that their home will sell. | |
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Developing Patience When There Will Not Instantly Be A Buyer For Every Listed Home Any Longer |
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 One of the strangest things over the past few years was how nearly every listing had a buyer (or buyers) in very short order once it hit the market. Inexpensive home - of course, lots of interest. Expensive home - still, lots of interest. House with an odd layout - sure, still interest House with a steep driveway - no problem, we are interested House needing repairs - yep, the interest is there And on, and on, and on. Almost every listing would receive nearly immediate attention and typically would see multiple offers within the first week it was on the market. It certainly made it easy to assume your home would sell quickly once it went on the market. Nearly every home was. Now, however, some home sellers are discovering that there is not going to instantly be a buyer for every home that is listed for sale. Certainly, plenty of homes will still see immediate response from buyers, and an offer or offers within days of hitting the market -- but not all homes. Thus, some sellers will have to readjust to a slightly longer time on the market. Just because your home does not go under contract in the first week or two does not mean that we will never find a buyer who wants to buy your time. For the past few years I told every buyer they needed to be patient because they might miss out on quite a few homes before landing a contract on one. Now I am telling at least some sellers that they will need to be patient while we wait for the right buyer for their home to show up on the scene. | |
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Yes, We Seem To Be Back In A Time When Some Offers Might Be Under The Asking Price |
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 Many homes are still going under contract quickly, often with multiple offers. But not all homes. I know it's hard to believe after the past few years of craziness in our local real estate market -- but some homes are actually going under contract below the list price. Between 2020 and 2022: You want to pay less than list price!? Ha ha ha ha ha ha. You're so silly. Now: Let's see whether they have had many showings and if they have any offers. If a few days or a few weeks have passed and the house is still available, yes, we may very well be successful with making an offer under the list price. That's all on the buyer side. On the seller side... it's more important than ever to price your property appropriately for the market. | |
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Home Buyer Demand Is Becoming Much More Variable By Price Range, Property Type And More |
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 Between 2020 and 2022, despite record levels of buyer demand, I would still tell sellers... We can't know for sure how much buyer demand will exist for your home until it is actually on the market and we can see how many times it is being viewed online, how many people are driving by to look at your home, how many people are scheduling a showing etc. During those three years (2020-2022) it seemed that regardless of the property type, location, price, condition, etc., once the house was listed for sale we would have lots and lots of showings and multiple offers. Detached home i great condition with main level master bedroom = 10+ buyers ready to buy. Older home that hasn't had any renovations or updates in 25 years = 10+ buyers ready to buy. Townhouse with small bedrooms = 10+ buyers ready to buy House on a busier than average road = 10+ buyers ready to buy House with a steeper than average driveway and yard = 10+ buyers ready to buy For a few years there, regardless of what home you were selling, you could count on there being plenty of buyers, right out of the gate, and your home would almost certainly be under contract very quickly. This seemed to have been partly related to buyer demand far exceeding the supply of homes for sale -- and perhaps even more significantly -- related to super low mortgage interest rates. Now, home buyer demand is much more variable by price range, property type, size, location, condition, and much more. You can no longer count on absolutely and certainly having lots of showings and multiple offers within a week. Some sellers will still see this. Some particular combinations of property type, location, price range, condition, features are still resulting in lots of early interest and the potential for multiple offers. These sellers don't think the market has changed. ;-) Some sellers will definitely not see this. Some properties will have some early interest -- but no offers -- or very little early interest. What should such a seller do? First, don't panic, it's not that nobody wants to buy your home. Second, be patient, let some time pass and see if you start seeing enough traffic (online views, drive bys, showings) to suggest you'll receive an offer. Third, consider adjusting the price (at some point) to attract further buyer interest. To those sellers who have not yet listed their home for sale -- we won't actually know what camp you'll be in (early offers vs. no early offers) until your house is on the market for sale. | |
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Adjusting Our Thinking About Time On Market |
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 For the past three years we have seen most homes going under contract very quickly. The median days on market (# days between list date and under contract date) has been at or below seven days for 33 out of the past 36 months. But now, some properties seem to be lingering on the market a bit longer than they might have over the past few years. A few related thoughts come to mind based on recent conversations with a variety of sellers, future sellers and fellow agents... [1] The median was always just the median - not the all. :-) When the median days on market was five days -- which it was for about a year -- that didn't mean all homes were going under contract within five days -- it meant that at least half of them were. Thus, there were plenty of homes that were taking longer than five days to go under contract. [2] In the six months leading up to the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, we were seeing median days on market between 14 days and 21 days. As such, if (or when) we see the median days on market figure start to drift upwards there is a lot of room for it to rise before it gets to levels we were seeing prior the past 3.5 crazy years. [3] Flipping backwards five (and six) years -- the median days on market was 29 days (in the 12 months leading up to and including July 2018) and was 42 days (in the 12 months leading up to and including July 2017). [4] It will be a jarring reality for some (or many) home sellers over the next few years if it is taking a month or two for houses to go under contract -- instead of just a week or two. [5] If or as the market continues to adjust relative to how quickly homes are going under contract -- we are going to have to adjust our thinking about "time on market" -- and realize that just because a house isn't under contract within a week, or two, or three -- that doesn't mean it's a terrible house that nobody will ever want to buy. | |
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How Often Are We Seeing Multiple Offer Scenarios These Days? |
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 Pre-COVID, multiple offer scenarios were the exception not the rule -- we would see them from time to time, but not often. During most of 2020, all of 2021 and much of 2022, multiple offer scenarios were the norm. Nearly any property being listed for sale would have multiple offers within just a few days. Buyers were desperate to secure a contract on a house and were including escalation clauses, waiving contingencies, and more, just to try to be the winning buyer. Now, mid-way (a bit more) through 2023, we are still sometimes seeing multiple offer scenarios, but not on all listings, and perhaps not on most new listings. So... BUYERS - You may very well have fallen in love with a house that is going to have multiple offers, so prepare for that and be ready to act quickly - but ask about other interest (and offers) before automatically including an escalation clause and/or dropping contingencies. SELLERS - You may very well be listing a home that buyers will fall in love with and that will have multiple offers, but that also might not happen. You should be super realistic (instead of super optimistic) when it comes to the pricing of your home, and then wait to see what the market response is once your house is listed for sale. I'm sure we'll still see a significant number of multiple offer scenarios moving through the remainder of 2023, but I don't think we'll see it on most/all listings any longer. | |
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The Goldilocks Principle In Pricing Your Home To Sell |
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 Per Wikipedia... The Goldilocks principle is named by analogy to the children's story "The Three Bears", in which a young girl named Goldilocks tastes three different bowls of porridge and finds she prefers porridge that is neither too hot nor too cold, but has just the right temperature. Let's see how it applies to pricing your home to sell... Too High If recent comparable sales point to a value of $475K for your home... and you price it at $495K, you are unlikely to sell it quickly or for a great price, as you priced it too high. Buyers may come to view your home... but if they conclude that it is worth $475K, they'll be faced with a decision of whether... [1] to offer $475K (which will likely result in a counter offer from you that they will not accept), or [2] to offer $455K (which you likely won't counter at all), or [3] to not make an offer at all. Most buyers these days, in this market, don't make the offer at all. Thus, pricing your home too high, likely won't work out well for you. Too Low Arguably, this strategy isn't terrible, or at least not as bad as pricing your home too high. If recent comparable sales point to a value of $475K for your home... and you price it at $450K, you are likely to sell it quickly, but not necessarily at a great price. If there are enough buyers in the market when your home is listed for sale, perhaps you'll have multiple offers that will drive the price up to $475K or a bit higher... but if there is only one buyer in the market, they'll probably offer $450K and you be selling for less than you might have otherwise expected. Just Right This is right where we want to be. If recent comparable sales point to a value of $475K for your home, you should likely consider a list price somewhere between $472,500 and $479,500. Buyers who come to see your home in the first few days, or first week, will find it to be priced appropriate given recent sales, and will likely feel comfortable making a full price offer. Perhaps you are even more fortunate, and there are several buyers in the market and there are competing offers with escalation clauses. Your best strategy in the current market (and perhaps in nearly every market) is to price your home just right -- not too high, not too low -- just right -- in line with recent comparable sales. | |
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How Quickly Your Home Will Sell Might Depend On The Price Range |
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 The "Median Days On Market" in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is six days... that is to say that half of homes go under contract in six or fewer days and half go under contract in six or more days. That is based on home sales in the first half of 2023. But... when we zoom into some different price ranges we start to see a slightly different story. The median Days On Market for homes over $500K is 10 days... ...for homes over $600K is 25 days... ...for homes over $700K is 35 days... ...and for homes over $800K is 70 days. So, yes, market-wide, the median Days on Market is six days... but that doesn't necessarily mean your home will go under contract in about six days... especially if it is in one of the upper price ranges for our area. | |
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It Is The Beginning Of The End Of Summer When It Comes To Real Estate |
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 Yes, yes, I know... the official first day of summer was June 21st, which was only two weeks ago. But, when it comes to real estate, we're just about at the beginning of the end of summer. Here's the math, working backwards for anyone hoping to be settled into a new home before the start of next school year... August 23 - first day of school in Rockingham County August 22 - first day of school in the City of Harrisonburg August 18 - latest closing date to have a full weekend to move into a new home before school starts July 18 - a month prior to that August 18 closing date So... if you're hoping to close on the purchase of a home before the upcoming school year begins, you have a bit less than two weeks to do so. And... if you're hoping to sell your home to someone that wants to close on their home purchase before the upcoming school year begins, you should probably have your house on the market in the next two weeks. Happy Summer! ;-) | |
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How Quickly Can You Sell A Second Cup Of Lemonade, Or Your House? |
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 Let's say you set up a lemonade stand early on a Saturday morning around 8:00 AM. Before you can even put the last sign up, you have your first customer at 8:04 AM. After you sell them that cup of lemonade, you are excited for the rest of the day and you start squeezing lemons for a second batch of lemonade because you just know that you'll have a strong day of lemonade sales, probably with a new thirsty customer every few minutes. Four hours later you sell your second cup of lemonade of the day. As those four hours passed by, without a second customer, you start to realize that... Just because the first lemonade customer showed up quickly, that did not necessarily mean that there would be lots and lots of lemonade customers that day. Maybe there is only one person in the market for lemonade in your area right now!?! I'm glad you asked... When you are getting ready to sell your home you might look around at recent sales and find that one of your neighbors recently sold their home -- and that it went under contract very quickly, and sold at or above list price. That would likely cause you to conclude that when you list your home for sale you will also find a buyer very quickly and sell at a great price. That may very well be the case! They might have had 10 showings and 3 offers, and you might have 9 showings and 2 offers. Great news for you if that is the case! Or... maybe there was only one buyer in the market (right now) for a house like your neighbor was selling and that you are selling... maybe they had 3 showings and 1 offer, and you might have 2 showings and no offers. Not quite as exciting for you. So just as we concluded with lemonade... Just because the first lemonade customer showed up quickly, that did not necessarily mean that there would be lots and lots of lemonade customers that day. Maybe there is only one person in the market for lemonade in your area right now!?! ...so it goes with any particular house given its price, location or property type... Just because a house sold recently, very quickly, at a great price, that does not necessarily mean that there are lots and lots of other buyers currently in the market for your very similar house. Maybe there is (was) only one person in the market (at least for now) for that particular type of house given its price, location and property type. So, how do you know what situation you'll be in as a lemonade or house seller? When selling lemonade, you won't know how quickly you will (or will not) sell that second cup of lemonade until the minutes or hours start going by with or without any lemonade sales. When selling a house, you won't know how quickly you will (or will not) sell your house until you have your house on the market and you can start seeing how quickly showings are (or are not) being scheduled. | |
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Existing Home Sales Are Down 19% In 2023. Why? |
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 We've seen a 19% decline in existing home sales in 2023 - which includes all home sales in the HRAR MLS except new construction sales. In the first five months of last year there were 466 existing home sales - but there have only been 377 existing home sales in the first five months of 2023. Why are there fewer existing home sales taking place right now in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Theory 1 - Affordability Home prices have increased significantly (+32%) over the past three years and mortgage interest rates have as well (+108%) and these two trends have caused housing payments for most new buyers to increase significantly. So, one theory for why we are seeing fewer existing home sales is because homes are less and less affordable. But... if this theory were true... that higher home prices and higher mortgage interest rates were making housing too unaffordable... thus reducing buyer demand for existing homes for sale... then we would see inventory levels starting to climb as a result. But, we're not seeing inventory levels meaningfully rise -- which calls into question whether the reduction in existing home sales could really be related to affordability. Theory 2 - Homeowners Want To Hold Onto Their Low Mortgage Interest Rate Another potential theory for why we are seeing fewer existing home sales... is that perhaps we are not seeing a decline in the number of buyers who want to buy... but rather... a reduction in the number of sellers who are willing to sell. Take a look at the mortgage interest rates of current homeowners! 82% of homeowners have mortgage interest rates below 5%. 62% of homeowners have mortgage interest rates below 4%. If those homeowners sell their current homes (existing homes) they would be trading in their low mortgage interest rate for a new one around 6.5% or a touch higher. Thus, it is quite possible that we are seeing lower number of existing home sales because fewer homeowners are willing to sell... because they LOVE their low mortgage interest rates. Theory 3 - What Say You? Have any other theories? Email me! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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