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If Your Home Will Need Improvements Costing X After Closing, Consider Adjusting Your List Price By 1.5X |
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 Let's say your three neighbors just sold their homes for $400K... ...but when comparing your home to the homes sold by your neighbors... Your house needs $10K of painting - or your house needs $16K of new flooring - or your house needs a $22K new roof. When pricing your home, you shouldn't just subtract the price of that improvement from your neighbor's list price to arrive at... A list price of $390K - or $384K - or $378K. You likely need to subtract 1.5 times the cost of the improvement when pricing your home. Would be home buyers will likely round up somewhat in their mind when estimating the cost of making the improvement -- AND -- it will be much more of a pain for them to make the improvement after closing as compared to you have already completed it before selling your home. As such, it will likely be more realistic to consider a list price of $385K - or $376K - or $367K. | |
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If Your Home Has Been For Sale For More Than 30 Days, You Are Not Alone |
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 The numbers above might surprise you given that the median days on the market in 2023 is a mere six days. But that median of six days on the market is related to homes that have actually sold. We get a slightly different story when looking at currently available listings When considering active listings of resale homes (not new homes) we find that... 35% of active listings have been on the market for less than 30 days 65% of active listings have been on the market for more than 30 days So, if you are selling a home and it has not gone under contract within six days, or within 30 days, you are not alone. 65% of sellers with homes on the market for sale have had their homes on the market for more than 30 days. | |
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Checking In On Mortgage Interest Rates |
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 Mortgage interest rates have been declining for the past two weeks... or "plunging" as I saw it described in one news article. Let's put it all in a bit of a larger context. Mortgage interest rates rose above 7% in August... ...they peaked two weeks ago at 7.79%... ...and they have now dropped back down to 7.5% as of last week. Looking back further... ...rates rose above 5% in August 2022... ...and then very shortly thereafter rose above 6% in September 2022. I suspect we will see rates above 6% for at least the next year. I think it's possible that we'll see rates get down to 7% over the next few months, but if they stay above 7% I won't be completely surprised. If you are planning to buy a home, it will be important to check in with your mortgage lender for an updated payment projection. Here's a potential payment in Rockingham County for a $300K purchase with 90% financing... 7.79% mortgage interest rate = $2,175 / month 7.5% mortgage interest rate = $2,121 / month 7% mortgage interest rate = $2,029 / month 6.79% mortgage interest rate = $1,992 / month Lower or higher mortgage interest rates certainly affect a monthly payment pretty quickly. A full 1% drop from the peak of 7.79% down to 6.79% would reduce your mortgage payment by $184 / month. Let me know if you'd like some recommendations for qualified local lenders with whom you could talk through a variety of financing scenarios. | |
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Home Prices Keep Climbing Despite Fewer Home Sales And Rising Inventory Levels |
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 Happy Monday, Friends! Before we get to the real estate news...can we just start by saying... Go Dukes!?! JMU has been on a roll over the past few weeks and months in multiple sports. The football team remains unbeaten at 10-0 and will host ESPN's College Game Day this Saturday. The men's basketball team defeated #4, Michigan State last week followed by two more wins. The men's soccer team beat #1 UCF two weeks ago. The volleyball team is entering the Sun Belt Conference tournament as the second seed of the east division. And on, and on. This has been a fun year for rooting for the Dukes. If you live locally in the Harrisonburg area I hope you have been able to get out to watch some of these exciting games at JMU... and if you're an out of the area alum, come on back to get in on the action! And now... on to the latest data and trends in our local housing market! First, an overview of a few key indicators...  The highlighted trends above aren't all that new -- they are a continuation of what we have been seeing through most of 2023... [1] We continue to see fewer and fewer home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This October there were 23% fewer home sales than last October. This year (Jan-Oct) we have seen 25% fewer home sales than last year during the same timeframe. [2] Despite fewer home sales taking place, home prices keep on rising. The median sales price thus far in 2023 is $330,000 which is 10% higher than the median sales price of $299,775 that we saw last year. [3] Homes are selling (as a whole) ever so slightly more slowly than last year -- even if it shows up as a 33% increase in the median days on market. Last year's median days on market in October was six days... and this year it's up 33% to eight days. So, many homes (at least 50%) are still selling quite quickly, even if ever so slightly more slowly than last year. Next up, though, let's take a look at a data table that might surprise you a bit...  The top two tables above look only at new home sales while the third and fourth table look at existing home sales. First, the decline in the number of homes that are selling (2023 vs. 2022) is relatively similar between new home sales (-27%) and existing home sales (-24%). But... the change in median sales price over the past year is where we notice some differences. The median sales price of new homes has increased 13% over the past year -- while the median sales price of existing homes has only increased 5% over the past year. Hmmmm.... so while the market wide median sales price has increased 10% over the past year, if we strip out the new home sales (and their impact on pricing) we are only seeing a 5% increase in the median sales price. This 5% increase in the median sales price of existing homes in 2023 follows an 11.5% increase in that metric in 2022. So, perhaps the increase in (existing) home prices is slowing? Now, moving on to some visuals of the latest trends we're seeing in our local housing market for all the visual learners amongst us. First, how much slower has this year been than last year?  My yellow scribbles above are filling in the area between last year's home sales figures (blue line) and this year's home sales figures (red line) to show how much of a gap we have seen in home sales between March and October. Last year (Mar-Oct) we saw 1,186 home sales. This year (Mar-Oct) there have only been 894 home sales. This is a big drop (25%) and it seems to mostly be a reduction in the number of sellers selling... though we can start to re-think that a bit as we move through another month of rising inventory levels. But all that is to come... keep reading. Next up, the long term trends in the number of homes selling and the prices of those homes...  The number of annual home sales has now dropped all the way down to 1,226 home sales... which (as this graph points out) is the lowest number of annual sales in over four years. And... it's actually much longer than four years. The last time we were seeing homes sell at an annual rate lower than 1,226 homes per year was way back in July 2016... over seven years ago! With home prices being as high as they are (illustrated by the top line in the graph above) and with mortgage interest rates being so high (now) compared to rates most homeowners have on their current mortgages -- I don't think we will see this annual rate of home sales start to increase in the near future. Shifting gears a bit, let's look forward to the remainder of the final quarter of 2023 as it relates to contract activity...  Only 83 contracts were signed in October 2023 which is slightly lower than last October (94) and significantly lower than the average October over the past four years (127). Looking ahead, it seems likely that we will see even fewer contracts being signed in both November and December. This is interesting to keep in mind when we get to the inventory graph in a bit. But before we get to the inventory numbers, here's a bit of a counter indication as to contract activity...  Despite slower contract activity, of late, the number of pending sales (under contract homes) is hovering around 234 contracts right now... which is very much in line with where we would expect it to be based on where we were at the end of last October (229) and the average end of October data from the past four years (245). Thus, perhaps we'll see normal-ish numbers of closed sales in November and December, given the normal-ish number of homes that are currently under contract? Now, inventory, the most interesting, unexpected and atypical indicator in this month's report...  Inventory levels are continuing to climb, as they have for the past four months now. The 230 homes that are currently on the market is 65% more homes than were on the market a year ago. What does this mean? [1] While the homes that are selling are still selling rather quickly, there is an increasing number of homes that are not selling right away and that is causing inventory levels to climb. [2] If you are listing your home for sale you might see it go under contract quickly -- contributing to the low "median days on market" figure -- or you might not see it going under contract quickly -- contributing to the increasing inventory levels. Yes, I understand very clearly which group every home seller would like to be a part of -- but every home seller is not automatically a member of the "my home sold in a flash" club any longer. Circling back a bit, here's the median days on market data, showing that plenty of people are still in that "my home sold in a flash" club, with a significant caveat to follow...  Let's be clear on what this graph (above) does and does not show... [DOES] This graph does show that half of the homes that have sold in the past six months have gone under contract in six or fewer days and half of the homes that have sold in the past six months have gone under contract in six or more days. [DOES] This graph does show that the time it is taking for homes to go under contract is about the same now as it was in the crazy times of 2021 and 2022. We were seeing a median of four to five days then, and a median of six days now. [DOES NOT] This graph does not show that all homes that are listed for sale will go under contract with a median of six days. These median days on market figures are calculated only based on homes that sell, once they have sold. I'll speak more to the "so what" or "now what" portions of these indicators a bit later. And finally, one of the main reasons for fewer home sales in 2023, those pesky high mortgage interest rates...  We now seen mortgage interest rates above 6% for more than a year... they have been over 7% for the past three months... and they were getting close to 8% at the end of October! These high (higher) mortgage interest rates put a damper on home sales activities... [1] Buyers think twice about buying after they calculate their monthly mortgage cost based on today's rates. [2] Sellers think twice about selling when they realize they'd be giving up their current (likely) low rate for a (likely) much higher rate today. I don't think we will see much of an increase in the number of homes that are selling until we see mortgage interest rates heading back down. It is worth noting that rates have come back down a bit in November, dropping from 7.79% down to 7.5% as of last week. Now, let's move on to the "so what" and "now what" portion of our conversation... If you plan to buy a home soon... [1] Yes, mortgage interest rates are high, so talk with a lender to make sure you have a clear understanding of your potential mortgage payment and make sure that it fits in your budget. [2] You likely are seeing more options of homes to consider now than you would have had over the past few years. Enjoy possibly having a few options at once instead of just one option at a time. [3] You might not have to make a decision about an offer within 30 minutes. Yay! Think it through, go back and look a second time, make sure you are comfortable with your potential offer and your buying decision. If you are selling your home and it's already under contract... [1] Congratulations. [2] Don't talk about it with anyone in the next category. ;-) If you are selling your home and it is not yet under contract... [1] We should take a look at how your pricing compares to other homes that buyers might currently be considering. We must make sure your pricing is competitive. [2] We should look at whether other buyers have contracted on similar homes in the past 60 days. Have buyers bought other houses -- and not your house -- or have they not been contracting to buy anything at all? [3] We will likely want to discuss if or how an adjusted list price might cause a buyer on the fence to make an offer... or a buyer looking at the fence to come view your home. ;-) [4] Sometimes the only solution is to be patient as there are no longer multiple buyers in the market, always, for every house regardless of size, location, features and price. If you plan to sell your home soon... [1] Pricing is key! Let's be super realistic (or overly realistic) with pricing so that you can join the "my home sold in a flash" club. [2] We will also need to take a look at how many buyers have purchased homes like your home over the past 60, 90 or 120 days to try to have realistic expectations for time on the market. [3] You might not have a flurry of showings in the first few days that your home is on the market. This does not mean that your home will never sell. It just means that it is not 2021 or 2022. :-) [4] Selling a home in 2021 and 2022 was a sprint... but you don't need to worry that it will now be a marathon... it is likely to be somewhere between a one mile run and a 5K. And for everyone... As all of these market trends (# sales, prices, inventory levels, time on market) adjust in our local market, it's more important than ever to delve deeper into the data related to your specific property type, price range, neighborhood, etc. - regardless of whether you are selling or buying. We must take a more thoughtful approach than ever to our selling strategy when it comes to pricing, preparation, marketing and negotiating... and a more thoughtful approach than ever to our offering strategy when buying. I'll wrap it up there for now, but feel free to reach out if you have questions about your particular housing situation -- or if you just want to talk things through. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 (call/text) or by email here. | |
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It Seems Likely That Home Buyers Will Have Fewer (Resale) Options In The Next 12 Months Compared To The Past 12 Months |
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 Not be Debbie Downer here but it seems likely that home buyers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are likely to have fewer options of homes to purchase in the next 12 months compared to the past 12 months. Why, might you ask? Roughly 80% of homeowners have mortgage interest rates below 5%. Mortgage interest rates are currently above 7%. Raise you hand if you'd sell your home with a mortgage interest rate below 5% and purchase a replacement home with a mortgage interest rate above 7%. <nobody raises their hand> So... as long as mortgage interest rates stay above 7% we're likely to see a lower than historically normal number of homeowners willing to sell their homes. So, if you're hoping to buy a home in the next 12 months, you should realize that you will likely have fewer options than in the recent past, and you might need to compromise a bit on what you are looking for in a home. Even though it seems unlikely that you actually will compromise... because of, again, the current high(er) mortgage interest rates. :-)
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The Higher The Mortgage Interest Rates, The More Perfect A House Must Be For A Buyer |
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 This is a totally made up graph. I don't know how I would actually measure "how perfect a house must be" to a buyer. But I will point out that... 1. When mortgage interest rates were super low, there were so many buyers competing over every new listing that home buyers were willing to compromise - often a lot - in how perfect a house had to be for them. They just wanted to secure a contract on a house. 2. Now, with mortgage interest rates a good bit higher (double) and with mortgage payments quite high as a result, buyers seem to have much more of a desire for a house to fit them well. If they're going to pay *that much* on a monthly housing payment, the house better fit them pretty well! | |
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It Does Not Seem That Home Prices Are Declining, Overall, But Some Sellers May Elect To Sell At Lower Than Expected Prices |
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 The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has risen 10% over the past year. That's an increase from $292,000 to $322,750. As such, it really does not seem that home prices are declining, overall. But... some (but likely not many or most) sellers may elect to sell at lower than expected prices. Here's why... Let's say you're selling a home priced at $322,750 that you purchased five years ago. That $322,750 is the median sales price... so let's just walk it backwards to imagine what your home might have been worth 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years ago. Today = $322,750 1 Year Ago = $291,950 2 Years Ago = $265,700 3 Years Ago = $238,400 4 Years Ago = $215,250 5 Years Ago = $212,000 So... you bought your home for $212,000. Last year you estimated it was worth $291,950... a $79,950 gain in four years. Today you estimate it to be worth $322,750... a $110,750 gain in five years. So, if you are selling your house today, and you price it at $322,750... and it doesn't go under contract within the first few weeks... or not within the first month or two... will you keep it priced at $322,750 indefinitely? Likely not. You -- and some other sellers -- would likely be happy to sell for somewhere between $291,950 and $322,750. Selling (this fictional house) for $291,950 is certainly quite a bit below where we believe the value to be today, but it is also a $79,950 gain in five years. All this is to say, that if you are serious about selling, and you have your house on the market, and it hasn't gone under contract... we shouldn't get too stuck on what your house should be worth today, and what it is worth today... we should evaluate the price at which it makes sense for you to sell... and how we might price it to have it go ahead and go under contract... even if that is at a lower price than we might otherwise expect. Put more simply... home sellers from three or more years ago potentially have a LOT of equity to play with when pricing their home to sell... and can likely tweak the pricing to motivate a buyer to go ahead and commit to buying. | |
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The High(er) Cost Of Money May Slow Down The Start Of Approved Residential Developments |
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 Over the past few years, thousands of potential new housing units have been proposed to be built in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Some of these new developments are under construction, but many are sitting idle as undeveloped land that is approved for a new housing development but with no clear indication of if or when construction might begin on those new homes. One of the biggest potential limitations on when these new homes might be built is -- the high(er) cost of money -- current interest rates. Developers and builders are not going out to get traditional mortgages in order to build out these communities -- but they almost always do need to borrow money from a bank to start a new housing development. That money goes towards infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, sidewalks) as well as towards the construction of the housing units -- all of which are bills that have to be paid before the first home is sold or rented. So, will we see all of these thousands of proposed or approved new home developments be built over the next year or two? Almost certainly not... and one of the biggest things holding back the development of these new communities is the current economic climate with high(er) interest rates across the board. If/when interest rates start to decline, perhaps we'll then see some of or more of these new developments being built. | |
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Monthly Housing Payments Are High But Seem Unlikely To Be Lower Over The Next Year |
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 Mortgage interest rates are higher they have been in over 20 years. Home prices are higher than they have ever been. Combine these two factors and you'll find monthly housing payments that are high. Quite high. Too high? Some would be home buyers are hesitating to move forward with a home purchase because of how high the monthly mortgage payment will be on their new home. This is understandable and quite reasonable. If your lender approves you for a mortgage payment of $2500 per month but you are only comfortable committing $2200 per month to a housing payment then perhaps you shouldn't buy that house that you love that would require a $2500 monthly housing payment. But... if you decide not to buy now (or soon) you probably shouldn't come to that decision within the context of waiting to buy in six to twelve months when you hope to have a lower housing payment. After all... what would we need to see in order to be experiencing lower housing payments? We'd need to see either... [1] Meaningfully lower mortgage interest rates -- which most economists don't seem to think will be showing up anytime in the next year. [2] Lower home prices -- which don't seem likely to exist anytime in the next year. Is it possible that mortgage rates will decline back to 5% or 6%? Sure, it's possible - but it doesn't seem likely, at all. Is it possible that home prices will decline over the next year? Sure, it's possible - but it doesn't seem likely, at all. So, a year from now, you'll likely have a very similar mortgage payment as you would have today -- or possibly even higher. Now, for all you contrarians out there -- tell me I'm wrong -- and tell me how. Will mortgage interest rates decline over the next year? Will home prices decline over the next year? | |
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Real Estate Seemed Like A Liquid Asset For A While There, But That Was Not Normal |
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 A liquid asset is an asset that can be easily converted into cash in a short amount of time. Is real estate a liquid asset? Nope. Did it feel like it was during 2020, 2021 and 2022? Yep. For a few years there, you could list your home for sale, it would almost certainly go under contract VERY quickly, with very favorable terms, with few contingencies, and would almost certainly get to closing. Real estate felt like a liquid asset. You could sell most any house and could "convert it into cash" within 30 to 45 days without much difficulty. But... we're not quite there any longer. Many houses -- but not all -- will still go under contract very quickly. We are starting to see many more inspection contingencies and/or appraisal contingencies. You may very well be able to convert your real estate (house) into cash within 30 to 45 days -- but you can't be as confident that it will definitely happen in very short order with very few speed bumps. And... that's normal. Real estate is not a liquid asset. It just felt like it was for a few years. | |
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A Return To The Question Of Whether To Take Your House Off The Market For The Holidays |
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 For a few years now, just about every new listing was going under contract in a matter of days, regardless of the time of year it was listed for sale. Big house, small house, high price, low price, good condition, not so good condition, big yard, small yard, flat driveway, steep driveway, optimistically priced, realistically priced, listed in April, listed in December -- everything was going under contract quickly. But now, some homes are coming on the market and are NOT going under contract right away. It might have even been 30, 60 or 90 days that some have been on the market without a buyer making an offer. Some such sellers are now returning to the question of whether to take their property off the market for the holidays. After all, if we aren't having many showings, maybe it makes sense to take the house off the market for a few months and start afresh in early Spring? It will be interesting to see if inventory levels drop as we get past Thanksgiving and/or as we get past Christmas. In years gone by we would often see these houses that were coming off the market for the holidays either vanishing in mid/late November (just before Thanksgiving) or in mid December (just before Christmas). | |
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The Spotswood High School District Has The Highest Priced Current Listings |
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 The graph above takes a look at the list prices of current listings of resale (not new) homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The price shown is the median list price, so as to say that... In the Broadway High School district, half of the current listings are priced at or above $342,400 and half are priced at or below $342,400. Likewise... In the Spotswood High School district, half of the current listings are priced at or above $609,450 (!) and half are priced at or below $609,450. | |
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Contract Activity Up Five Percent In October 2023 And Other Also Accurate Headlines |
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 These are all true... [1] Contract Activity Up 5% In October 2023 Compared To October 2022. [2] Contract Activity Down 51% In October 2023 Compared To October 2021. [3] Contract Activity Down 24% In October 2023 Compared To Pre-Covid Norms. Without numbers, I'd summarize them all as follows... October contract activity is about on par with last October, a decent bit slower than pre-Covid levels and much, much lower than during the home buying (and selling) frenzy of the Covid times of 2020 and 2021. | |
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How Much Growth Are We Seeing In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County? |
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 Some localities in Virginia, such as Loudoun County, are growing quite quickly. Loudon County is tops on the list for population growth over the past 12 years as shown above. The average annual growth rate shown above is calculated by comparing 2010 census data with 2022 population estimates, all from the Weldon Cooper Center. What do we learn from the data table above? [1] The population of City of Harrisonburg has grown an average of 1.09% per year over the past 12 years. [2] The population of Rockingham County has grown an average of 0.82% per year over the past 12 years. [3] Our growth rate (and our population) are quite a bit lower than Loudoun County, which is tops on the list above. The population of Loudoun County has grown by an average of 2.72% per year over the past 12 years and is now estimated to be 431,006. [4] The City + County population is currently around 139,849. [5] If the City maintains the current 1.09% growth rate, it will grow from 55,700 to about 62,069 over the next decade. [6] If the County maintains the current 0.82% growth rate, it will grow from 84,149 to about 91,289 over the next decade. [7] Combining the City and County numbers above, current trends point to our area's population growing from 139,849 to 153,358 over the next decade. [8] Put differently, this potential growth over the next decade (139,849 to 153,358) equates to about 1,351 new people in the City or County each year. All of that (above) relates to how much we have been growing in the recent past -- and how much we are likely to grow in the near future. But as to if we should be growing, and how much we should be growing, that is a very different question with plenty of potential opinions and perspectives depending on who you ask. | |
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How Should Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Think About The School Impact Of Previously Approved, Unstarted, Residential Developments? |
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 In reviewing a recently proposed rezoning request for a new residential development, I found this insightful comment from Rockingham County Public Schools... "This property is located in the Spotswood High School District. RCPS estimates this would generate an additional 25 students at Cub Run Elementary, 13 students at Montevideo Middle School, and 16 students at Spotswood High School. With proposed redistricting in the next year, each school will have the capacity to handle this increase in enrollment. However, it should be noted, that we estimate the cumulative effect of this development and others approved in the last 3 years once all are 100% built out would bring Cub Run near capacity." The last part is interesting and I don't know how the County plans to handle this situation... "However, it should be noted, that we estimate the cumulative effect of this development and others approved in the last 3 years once all are 100% built out would bring Cub Run near capacity." I believe this dynamic exists in both the City and County at the moment. If most or all residential developments that have been approved are built in the next few years then quite a few schools would likely be at or over capacity. I'm not sure how the County (or the City) should factor that dynamic into decisions about whether to approve additional proposed developments. Should the County and City assume that all approved developments will be built soon, and hesitate to approve more based on the theoretical potential cumulative impact of the developments that have not begun? Should the County and City ignore the potential cumulative impact of developments that have not begun and evaluate each new rezoning proposal based solely on the direct impact on schools for that one development? Perhaps they need to be somewhere in between these two extremes? Most new developments -- on their own -- won't cause a school or schools to be beyond capacity. If all approved and proposed new developments are built within the next few years it seems likely that some or many schools would be at or beyond capacity. But many (most?) approved developments have not been started... it is unclear if or when many of them will be developed. | |
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The Influence Of Mortgage Interest Rates On Who Will Buy Or Sell |
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 Mortgage interest rates -- and whether they are high, or low, or higher, or lower -- are not the only or even the primary factor affecting any given real estate market -- but they do play a role. Between May 2019 and March 2022, when 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates were below 4%, many (many!) buyers were pulled into the market. They were eager to buy a home while the cost of money so low. They were excited by how much house they could buy within their budget. They were delighted by how low of a mortgage payment they would have based on these low rates. Since September 2022, while 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rates have been above 6%, many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, unable or unwilling to pay the mortgage payment that would be associated with purchasing a home and financing it at 6% or 7% or 8%. The pool of would-be home buyers has shrunk considerably AND the pool of would-be home sellers has shrunk as well. Homeowners who might sell are reconsidering selling as that would often involve paying off a mortgage with a rate below 4% and then financing a new purchase with a rate above 7%. But... looking ahead... will rates have to get all the way back down to 4% or below to spur a solid increase in the number of buyers in the market? Maybe not. Mortgage interest rates have now been above 7% for two months. It seems likely that they could stay above 7% well into 2024. But when rates do start declining -- at some point -- home buyers will likely start returning to the market in solid numbers as they decline. We were below 4% for three years... so 6% and 7% seem quite high. If stay above 7% for a year... then 6% won't seem bad at all! Whether mortgage interest rates are high or low seems to mostly be understood or felt within a recent context of where rates have been for the past year or two. Just as current (above 7%) mortgage interest rates are keeping some or many buyers out of the market -- I suspect once we get back down into the 6% range we will likewise start to see buyers pulled back into the market and sellers considering the sale of their home after all. | |
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Why Has The Median Sales Price Of Attached Homes Increased 20% In A Year? |
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 Spoiler alert - I have no concrete answers to the question above. :-) The median sales price of attached homes (duplexes, townhomes, condos) was $247,565 in 2022. Thus far in 2023, the median sales price is $296,990. This marks a 20% increase in the median sales price of attached homes over the past year. How could this be? The overall median sales price in our market (detached homes and attached homes) has risen 10% in that same timeframe -- so why has the median sales price of attached homes risen 20% rather than 10%? My theory - which I have now proven to be wrong - was that the median sales price was rising because we were seeing more new attached homes selling in 2023 at higher prices, causing the median sales price to rise. Certainly, if 20% of attached homes were new homes in 2022 and 40% were new homes in 2023 then it would not be surprising to see the median sales price rise since the prices of new homes are almost always higher than the prices of resale homes. But, here's what the data actually shows...  So, again, comparing attached home sales in 2022 and 2023... 2022 - median sales price of $247,565 with 40% being new homes 2023 - median sales price of $296,990 with 34% being new homes So, it seems we can't necessarily attribute the unexpectedly high (20%) increase in the median sales price of attached homes in 2023 to a larger portion of those home sales being new homes. Darn. Theory #1 has been refuted. Anyone have any other theories? | |
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The Annual Pace Of Home Sales Has Fallen 27% Since June 2022 |
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 In June 2022 the annual pace of home sales activity in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County peaked at 1,727 home sales in the previous 12 months. Now, as of the end of September, the annual pace of home sales has dropped back down to 1,256 home sales in the past 12 months. That decline from 1,727 annual sales down to 1,256 annual home sales marks a 27% decline in the number of homes are selling in a year's time in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. But... it may just be a retreat from a historically odd time. Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we had been seeing between 1,200 and 1,400 home sales per year for about four years... from 2016 through 2020. Those years are marked by the wide swath of green bars on the graph above. Prior to 2016 we were seeing fewer than 1,200 home sales a year, as shown by the blue bars on the graph above. But then, in 2020... [1] COVID-19 happened, and overnight everyone was asking their home to serve more purposes than ever. Students were learning from home. Adults were working from home. [2] Mortgage interest rates dropped below 3% and mostly stayed there for a year and a half. The two factors above (among others) fueled our local housing market (and many others) to rise to new heights -- as shown by the orange and red portions of the graph above. But by mid 2022, mortgage interest rates were rising, and then rising again, and then rising some more... all while home prices were continuing to rise to unprecedented new heights. So, perhaps it is rather unsurprising that we have seen a 27% decline in the annual pace of home sales as of the end of September. Two notes... [1] Being in the 1,200 to 1,400 range we are in what was a normal range for home sales for 2016 - 2020. [2] It is likely that the annual pace of home sales will fall further, possibly below 1,200. This will put us back in the normal range for home sales for 2014 - 2016. | |
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Leighton Place, To Include 150 Townhomes And 180 Apartments Proposed On Stone Spring Road Across From Preston Lake |
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 We may soon see another residential development near the intersection of Stone Spring Road and Spotswood Trail. Two parcels totaling 25.5 acres are currently zoned A-2 but a developer is proposing that they be rezoned R-5 to allow for the construction of 330 residential units to include 150 townhouses and 180 one and two bedroom apartments. Here's where the new development is being proposed...  The rezoning application and other documents prepared by the County can be viewed here. This new proposed development -- Leighton Place -- is immediately adjacent to the 280 unit rental community, Stone Ridge Crossing, that was approved last month by the Board of Supervisors. | |
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Fewer Home Sales, Rising Inventory Levels And Possible Slowing In Sales Price Gains |
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 Happy October, Friends! October is one of my favorite months of the year... for quite a few reasons... 1. Cool mornings, warm afternoons and then cool evenings again. 2. Beautiful changing colors of fall leaves. 3. Pumpkin pie! 4. My birthday. ;-) 5. Coaching middle school volleyball. 6. Apple cider. 7. Watching JMU football games. Goodness, there have been some stressful ones this season, though not this past weekend!  Is October a favorite month for you as well? What would be on your list? While you're building your own list of all the reasons why October is amazing, let me mention my monthly giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report, highlighting some of my favorite places, things or events in Harrisonburg. Recent highlights have included Taste of Thai, Merge Coffee and Jimmy Madison's. This month I am giving away a $50 gift certificate to Hank's Grille, located in McGaheysville. I enjoyed a delicious meal this weekend of pork BBQ with baked beans and macaroni and cheese on the side, rounded out with some pecan pie. If you haven't been to Hank's Grille, you should go check it out... whether you win the gift certificate or not! Click here to enter to win a $50 gift certificate! And now... on to the data, and charts and graphs...  OK, my highlighting on the chart above requires a bit of explanation. Let's work our way from the bottom of the chart upwards... [1] Year to date we have seen 927 home sales, which is 25% fewer than the 1,241 home sales we saw in the first nine months of last year. [2] When we look just at the past six months (April through September) we have seen a slightly larger 28% decline in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [3] When we look just at September (while keeping in mind that a small data set can lead us to erroneous conclusions) we'll see a 34% decline in the number of homes that are selling. So, far fewer homes (at least 25% fewer) are selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County this year as compared to last. But what about the prices of those homes that are selling?  The prices, it seems, keep on rising, no matter how we slice and dice the data from a timeframe perspective. As shown above, the median sales price has increased 10% this year to date as compared to last year to date. When we look at a shorter timeframe (six months, three months, one month) we still see a double digit (10% - 11%) increase in the median sales price. All that said, later in this report I'll take a look at only detached home sales where we are starting to see a slightly different trend in median sales prices. I know... quite the build up... but don't skip ahead... keep reading. :-) These next numbers can be quite easily taken out of context...  The median time that it takes for a home to go under contract (days on market) increased 60% in September 2023! Gasp! ;-) It's actually not as much of a story as you might think. Median days on market was five days last September and is eight days this September. Yes, that is a 60% increase... but eight days is still quite low and doesn't mark too much of a shift in how quickly homes are going under contract. Most sellers are just as delighted to have their home under contract in eight days even if it isn't under contract in five days. Also, above, you'll see that year to date the median days on market has only increased from five days to six days. Another graph below will put these numbers in a larger (longer) context. More suspense, I know. Now, on to some graphs for the visual learners amongst us...  After a normal-ish January through April, we have been seeing far fewer home sales each month thereafter. May through September makes five months in a row where we saw significantly fewer home sales as compared to the same month last year (blue line) and as compared to the average of the past four years (grey line). Looking ahead, on the graph above, I think it is reasonable to assume we will continue to see slower months of home sales in October, November and December as compared to recent years. As I have pointed out in the past, this slow down in home sales seems to be a result in changes on both the supply and demand side of the housing market... SUPPLY - We are seeing fewer sellers willing to sell their homes as they don't want to give up their likely low mortgage interest rate in the 3% to 4% range. DEMAND - We are seeing fewer buyers willing or able to buy homes given the current higher mortgage interest rates in the 7% to 8% range. Now, then, for even more context... let's see how home sales have fallen...  The blue line above shows the number of home sales in a year's time. That annual rate of home sales was hovering in the 1,300's pre-Covid and then surged up to a high of 1,727 in summer 2022. Now, however, we have seen the annual rate of home sales decline all the way below 1,300 home sales a year which is the lowest annual rate in over four years! But yet -- enter the green line -- the median sales price of those homes keeps on rising! However, maybe we are starting to see a slight change in the trajectory of the median sales price? See below...  The graph above segments out only DETACHED home sales, also known as "single family homes" and excludes duplexes, townhouses and condos. Sometimes looking just at detached homes can be a more helpful or accurate view of changes in median sales prices as it removes one variable from the mix. When we're looking at market-wide changes in the median sales price the numbers can be affected by how many detached homes are selling (generally at higher prices) compared to how many attached homes are selling (usually at lower prices). Thus, I'm looking here just at the detached home sales. With all of that as context, you'll see that we saw a 12% increase in the median sales price of detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2022... but thus far in 2023 we have only seen a 7% increase in the median sales price. Please note that I tried to choose my words very carefully in the latter part of my headline this month... "... Possible Slowing In Sales Price Gains" It is possible -- not certain -- that we are seeing a slowing of sales price GAINS. Sales prices are not declining, or even staying level. Prices are still rising, but they might be rising a bit more slowly now (7%) than they were last year (12%). But, yes, that's just for detached homes... because look at attached homes!?!  As shown above, the median sales price of attached homes is shooting upwards, quickly! After a 9% increase in the median sales price of attached homes in 2022, we are now seeing a 21% increase in 2023!?! My only theory here (thus far) is that this may be a result of more new construction (higher priced) attached homes selling this year, which might be driving the median sales price of attached homes up this quickly. I'll look into that further in the coming days. But yes, the median price of an attached home... is rising very quickly right now. Now, on to the contracts that were signed in September that might predict the home sales we'll see in October and/or November...  As shown above (highlighted in yellow) the rate of contracts being signed in June, July and August was a bit unpredictable. June was slower than last June. July was faster than last July. August was slower than last August. But September, it was just what we might have expected... we saw 112 contracts signed this September and 112 contracts signed last September. Now, then, the only thing I'll say looking ahead is that I expect we'll see fewer than 112 contracts signed this October and quite possibly fewer than the 94 that were signed last October. Next up, inventory levels, and as you know from the headline, they are rising...  Over the past three months we have seen inventory levels rise from almost the lowest level in the past two years (131 in June 2023) to definitely and absolutely the highest level in the past two years (206 in September 2023). A few nuances to add here, though, as highlighted above... SLIGHTLY - This increase in inventory levels does put us above where we have been for the past few years (during/after Covid) but inventory levels are still well below where they were for much of the past decade. This increase in inventory levels provides slightly more choices for buyers -- not abundantly more choices for buyers. SOME - The increased inventory levels are not equally distributed across all price ranges, property types and locations. Some segments of our local market are still quite undersupplied and some are more oversupplied than others. So, some buyers have slightly more choices... but all buyers do not have slightly more choices. Now, to add a bit longer context to the recent rise in median days on market...  We have started to see the median days on market figure bounce around a bit in 2023... but it has remained between five days and eight days for the past year. These very small increases still keep it well below where it was in 2020 and prior. Also of note here is that while the median days on market figure is staying within that five to eight day range there are plenty of homes that are selling in fewer than five days and plenty that are selling in more (or much more) than eight days. And finally, it's time to play the blame game! :-) Why are we seeing fewer home sales right now? Why are we seeing rising inventory levels? Why might price increase gains be slowing? It's all, arguably, because of those darn mortgage interest rates...  Over the past two years we have seen steadily increasing mortgage interest rates. Over the past two years we have seen steady declines in the annual rate of home sales. Coincidence? Probably not. Higher mortgage interest rates have... [1] Caused some would-be sellers to decide not to sell as they do not want to give up their low mortgage interest rate. [2] Caused some would-be buyers to decide not to buy as they can't afford (or don't want to pay) the monthly payment associated with the house they would like to buy. Where, then, will we likely see the market headed through the remainder of 2023 and into 2024? I believe we'll see... [1] Continued high mortgage interest rates, at or above 6.5%. [2] Continued declines in the annual rate of home sales, though I suspect the declines will slow. [3] Continued increases in the median sales price, though I suspect the increases will slow. [4] Sustained higher inventory levels that might continue to creep upward. So... if you plan to engage in this current real estate market as a home buyer or a home seller... BUYERS - You might see a few more choices of homes to purchase at any given time over the next few months. Your monthly housing costs will likely still be high given continued high interest rates. Waiting a year probably won't result in a lower monthly payment as rates likely won't drop considerably and prices don't seem likely to drop. SELLERS - Prices are still high, and rising, but those prices convert into an ever higher monthly housing cost for buyers. As such, you'll likely have fewer showings on your house and fewer offers. Prepare your house well, price it appropriately, market it thoroughly, and bear in mind that you might have to negotiate on price and terms with a buyer depending on your home's price range, property type, location, etc. If you're thinking about buying or thinking about selling but don't know what to think... feel free to reach out. I'm always happy to talk things through with you to try to help you clarify your goals and priorities and to figure out if now is the right time to make a move. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 (call/text) or by email here. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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