Every home owner (house seller) likely feels a bit differently about whether house showings should happen and if so, how they should happen - but the majority of houses currently on the market can, indeed, be viewed by buyers. 

Below are recommendations for being considerate to home sellers...

ALSO -- if it would makes you more comfortable, I can start by touring the house for you (taking precautionary steps as outlined above) and can take you along with me via FaceTime or Zoom.

 

Awesome, my Zestimate is X!  Oh my, my tax assessment is only Y! 

Don't worry too much -- neither is necessarily very close to your home's value -- especially if there is a great variance in the values, as shown above.

In addition to watching how the median sales price changes over time, it can be quite insightful to see how the median price per square foot of sold homes changes over time.  The graph above tracks the median price per square foot of single family homes (not townhouses, duplexes or condos) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past 19 years.

Price per square foot fell 22% between 2006 and 2011 as the market cooled back off.  Since that time, however, we have seen a slow and steady increase in this metric -- from $101/SF in 2011 to $129/SF last year -- which marks a 28% increase over the past eight years.

I wouldn't necessarily expect that we would see drastic increases in this metric in the next few years, but an increasing number of buyers (more demand) and significantly fewer sellers (less supply) does make you wonder if we will start to see more rapid increases in sales prices, and thus in price per square foot. 

Thus far in 2020, we are seeing a 6% increase in the sold price per square foot in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County!

ALSO OF NOTE -- this metric is most helpful in understanding value trends over time -- not in calculating the value of one particular property.  This median price per square foot is the mid point of many very different homes -- new homes, old homes, homes with garages, homes without garages, homes with basements, homes without basements, homes with acreage, homes on small lots, etc.  A median price per square foot can be more helpful in understanding the potential value (or value range) of a single property if we pull that median value based on a smaller data set of more properties more similar to the single property. 

  

Even in the midst of a pandemic, City homes between $150K and $250K are selling fast!  I have experienced this several times lately either representing a seller or buyer, so I though I'd see if the data lined up with my experiences.  It does.

I took a look at all properties (attached or detached) between $150K and $250K that have gone under contract during the past 60 days in the City of Harrisonburg.  There have been (24) such properties -- and they have gone under contract in a median of 3 DAYS.  And of those 24 properties, 16 of them were under contract within a week!

If you are selling a City property between $150K and $250K, you are likely to see plenty of buyer interest.

If you are hoping to buy a City property between $150K and $250K, you had better be ready to act fast, and you are likely to have plenty of competition.

 

This is my first weekly check-in with contract activity where we're seeing a slight decline in contract activity in 2020 as compared to 2019.

The data...

 

It can be hard to find a townhouse for sale these days -- many of them are under contract within days or even hours of being listed for sale.

So if you are a buyer looking to purchase a townhouse in or near Harrisonburg -- you should start thinking about the process sooner rather than later.

Some first steps...

And here are a few resources you might find helpful...

Let me know if I can be of assistance to you as you start the search for the townhouse you hope to purchase in or around Harrisonburg.

 

Preparing your home to go on the market can be challenging (and tiring), and often sellers-to-be need a second (or third) set of eyes to provide suggestions about where to focus their time and energy.  There are many different theories about how to best prepare your home to be on the market and viewed by buyers --- and ways of expressing those theories. 

• take a minimalistic approach, removing absolutely every knick knack in sight
• removing all family photos
• de-cluttering and get rid of extra "stuff"
• remove furniture to create an open feel
• stage the home with place settings on the dining table, and more
• always have fresh flowers in the home

There are countless other theories, ideas or suggestions -- all of which can be helpful to consider as you are preparing to put your house on the market.  Another perspective that I'd throw out there for your consideration is eliminating distractions and objections.

Distractions are the things that keep a prospective buyer from focusing on your house.  That might be knick knacks, or family photos, or refrigerator magnets, or an overflowing pantry, or fascinating artwork, or an abundance of indoor plants, or a strange odor, or brightly colored wall hangings.  Whatever it is --- if a buyer is focusing on one (or more) of these items, they're not focusing on your house.  They're reading all of the Far Side comics on the fridge instead of marveling at the granite countertops, tile back splash, recessed lighting, and stainless steel appliances.  They're amazed at how you fit 234 board games into the coat closet instead of taking in the quality workmanship of the trim detail in the foyer, and the mountain views out the picture window in the family room.  As you prepare your home to go on the market, close your eyes for a few moments when standing at the entrance to each main living area.  Then, open your eyes, and take note of where your eyes are immediately drawn.  Or, walk slowly through the space (or ask a friend to help) seeing where your eyes (and your mind) linger.

Objections are those correctable physical characteristics of your home that give a buyer a reason to mark your home off their list, or to move it down a notch in their preferences.  Perhaps it is that the vinyl siding needs to be power washed, or that three bi-fold closet doors need to be adjusted, or that there is poor lighting in the kitchen, or that the deck needs staining.  There are oftentimes small home maintenance items that should be attended to before putting your home on the market.  There are two potential dangers of having these items unresolved --- first, a buyer might become too overwhelmed by the work that they need to do to the home once they move in, and second, a buyer might extrapolate from what they can see to imagine what they cannot.  A classic example of this is the dirty furnace filter that makes a buyer assume that the HVAC system has never been serviced, is in a terrible state of disrepair, and will need to be replaced immediately. 

As you're preparing your house to go on the market, I'm happy to provide you with another set of eyes and to give you some new perspectives on how to best prepare your home to be shown to buyers. 

When you're ready, just give me a call (540-578-0102) or send me an e-mail (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com).  Also, don't fret about having your home in perfect "show condition" before you call me --- I'm happy to give you some guidance and feedback while you're still in the process of preparing your home to go on the market.

 

Most home shoppers have had this experience when looking at homes online -- they see beautiful photos of many wonderful rooms in a house -- but can't quite figure out how the different photos and rooms tie together.  Photos also often lack a sense of scale, especially when taken with a wide angle lens.

The best cure for this?  Floor plans.

Floor plans for a house can show you how all of the different rooms connect (or don't) and can provide a sense of scale with room dimensions.

The 3D camera and imaging system that I use can create a floor plan of your home - click on the image at the top of this post (or here) to view a larger version of this floor plan.

When you're getting ready to list your home this spring or summer, let's plan to create a 3D walk through and floor plans for your home!

Read about all of the other ways we can market your home by visiting....

SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

 

Prior to a month ago, lots of people would attend each real estate closing, such as:

But these days, it doesn't work so well to have a closing with 5 to 10 people present -- especially when a title company might have 8 to 12 closings per day.  That title company would then potentially have 75+ people walking in and out of their office each day, in addition to the 10-ish people working in the office.

So, things happen a little differently now...

Basically, each party (buyer and seller) drives to the title company, picks up the closing documents from a box outside the front door of the title company, calls the closing attorney to review the documents by phone, and then signs the documents in their vehicle.  Once the documents are signed, they are put back in the box and the closing attorney takes the documents into the office to review them and then let's the buyer or seller know that they can leave. 

This new process (utilized by multiple local title agencies) is still allowing real estate closings to happen, but it certainly is a tad bit less exciting than it used to be.  There is (necessarily) quite a bit less personal interaction with this new process and some of the joy of a home purchase (or sale) isn't quite the same at that particular moment of the transaction.

 

If you haven't heard, inventory levels have been LOW lately -- with very few homes for sale at any given time -- which can be frustrating for buyers.

And it is even more frustrating and challenging for seller/buyers -- folks who need to both sell and buy at the same time.

If you have to sell your home, but you aren't sure whether you can find something to buy, you'll likely wait to list your home for sale until your dream home comes on the market. 

This phenomenon (seller/buyers waiting to list until they find something to buy) further reduces inventory levels because the seller/buyer's homes are not listed for sale.

And now, with COVID-19 causing some sellers to wait a few weeks or months to list their homes, it seems possible that we'll see even lower inventory levels than we would expect to see at this time of year.

The upside for sellers who are willing to list their homes right now is that they might have less competition from other sellers who might choose to wait to list their homes for sale.

The downside for buyers is that they might have to wait even longer for the "right" home to come on the market for sale.

 

We're now about a month into dealing with the impact of COVID-19 on our lives, society, work, employment, finances, and yes, housing market.

As shown above, despite everything that is going on, there have still been more buyers signing contracts thus far in 2020 (379 of them) than we saw either of the past two years (376, 355). 

That said, the gap is shrinking, and it seems likely that cumulative buyer activity in 2020 might (?) fall behind 2019 at some point in the next few weeks.

I'll continue to track this data from week to week to see how COVID-19 is or is not impacting the amount of home buying activity we are seeing in our current market. 

The same two notes apply from last week...

 

I'm working from home today, as is the norm for many of us these days.  I hope that you and your family are in good health and good spirits as we travel through these unprecedented times. 

Before we get going, here are two articles I wrote a few weeks ago that are still quite applicable given the current scenario with COVID-19...

What follows is an update on our local (Harrisonburg and Rockingham County) real estate market as measured by home sales data through the end of March 2020.  Overall, you'll see that almost all indicators are still quite positive in our local market.  If we are going to see an impact of COVID-19 on our local housing market, we might first see signs of that another month or two from now. 

Before we dive in, take a few minutes to learn more about this month's featured home - an upscale home in the Blue Stone Hills area - by visiting 2221PearlLane.com.

Also, for those that like to cut to the chase, here's a PDF of my entire market report.

Now, onto some data, and what we might conclude that it means...

As shown above...

This year has certainly been quite a yo-yo when it comes to sales per month.  We saw a record breaking number of sales in January (higher than the prior three months of January) and then a depressingly low number of sales in February (lower than the prior three months of February) and then things bounced right back up again in March to the highest month of March sales seen in the last few years. 

I suppose it's not totally unreasonable to think we could see another yo-yo move in April if home sales dip back down somewhat due to COVID-19.  Read on a bit more for data on contract activity in March.

Looking at the data visually, again, you'll note that we saw the strongest first quarter of home sales in quite a few years in 2020.  If this trend continues we would likely see 1,350+ home sales this year.

Looking now at contract data (above) you'll note that there were only 116 contracts signed in March 2020 - which is a drop off from the 132 contracts signed last March.  However, when looking at the entire first quarter (Jan-Mar) this year's buyers have been a group of 320, while only 308 buyers showed up last year during the same timeframe.  Last year, April was the strongest month of buyer activity -- as measured by when buyers are signing contracts -- and it will be interesting to see if that proves to be true this year.

Changes in housing inventory (the number of homes on the market for sale) were somewhat predictable over the past month.  We usually see inventory levels starting to climb in March (we did this year) but we also saw an overall year-over-year decline in inventory levels, as we have been seeing for the past few years.  This will be another good indicator to watch in the coming months to see how the number of homes on the market is affected by COVID-19.

If you're buying a home right now -- or refinancing your mortgage -- you are likely quite pleased with some super-low interest rates.  The current average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (on a purchase, not a re-fi) is 3.5%.  This creates an extraordinary opportunity for today's buyers to lock in their housing costs at a low level as it relates to the interest they are paying on their mortgage.

Any changes to this chart above will be telling in the coming months.  We only have unemployment data through February right now, and at that point, things were looking great!  This could change quite a bit moving forward.

That is all of the graphs I'll throw at you today. 

In conclusion, through the end of March, our local housing market was continuing to move right along at a steady clip.  Plenty of sellers are still listing their homes for sale.  Plenty of buyers are still contracting to buy homes. 

Here are a few other articles that I have written over the past few weeks that explore some of the nuances of our market...

As we continue through this unprecedented time, I'll continue to monitor where we are and contemplate where we might be headed, and I'll share them with you in my monthly market reports. 

Until next month, I hope you and your family remain healthy, and if you have questions about how current market dynamics might impact your plans for potentially buying or selling a home this year, feel free to reach out by sending me an email - scott@hhtdy.com.

 

It's spring!  Flowers are blooming!  The smell of new mulch is in the air!  Many of us are battling with the onset of seasonal allergies!  And we're seeing new listing after new listing hit the real estate market.  Wait, what?  Maybe not that last one.

You see, it has officially been spring for a few weeks now, but we've also been dealing with the ongoing spread of a pandemic for a few weeks.  What does that all mean for how many homes we'll see coming on the market this spring?

I think we'll see fewer homes listed for sale given the current circumstances - though it will be hard to really measure that.  We'll see fewer homes for sale than we would have if COVID-19 wasn't happening -- but we don't really know how many homes would have been listed for sale that now won't be listed for sale.

So, in as much as we do experience a slightly-less-than-normal spring market...

While out for a run earlier this week, listening to a podcast about the news and current events related to COVID-19, one of the people on the podcast made a comment that resonated with me.

He said that whenever someone asks him how he thinks COVID-19 is going to affect ____ (fill in the blank with whatever you'd like) he starts by asking them how long they think COVID-19 will still be impacting our daily lives.

The same likely holds true as it relates to the local housing market.  How will COVID-19 affect home prices (or the pace of home sales) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  Well, it likely depends on how long you think COVID-19 will continue to impact our daily lives.

Consider these three scenarios from a timeline perspective...

These three different timelines would likely result in very different impacts on our local housing market.

But since none of us really know how the future timeline is going to play out, we can't accurately predict if or how the local housing market will be impacted by COVID-19. 

What we can do, however, is look backwards to see what impact we can observe as time passes. 

All that to say -- the graph multiple paragraphs above where you're reading now shows the cumulative number of buyers who signed contracts during the first four months of this year as compared to 2018 and 2019.

As you'll note, this year started off much stronger than 2018 and 2019 - but over the past few weeks, cumulative buyer activity has been slowing back down slightly, now approaching the 2019 trajectory.  Don't read that as all bad news, though, as thus far in 2020 we have still seen more buyers sign contracts than during the same timeframe in 2019, despite COVID-19.

And two possibly necessary notes to make sure you understand this data:

If you're thinking about building a home, it's a great time to explore building lots for sale - simply because it is not an indoor space with regular inhabitants.  I don't think the owner of the building lot will feel a need to wipe down the grass, underbrush or trees after you leave.

Speaking of building, an age-old question is whether to buy a re-sale home or build a new home, especially as your price range gets above $400K or $500K.

Typically, the tension between buying vs building is one of:
     1.  Goals
     2.  Money
     3.  Timing

If you build, you can get the house you want, but you'll pay more for it and it will take a lot of time and attention. 
     1.  Goals = Win
     2.  Money = Lose
     3.  Timing = Lose

If you buy an existing home, you won't get exactly what you want, but you will pay less for the house and the process will not be a drain on your time.
     1.  Goals = Lose
     2.  Money = Win
     3.  Timing = Win

Don't let my oversimplification of this issue fool you -- this is something that buyers can get stuck debating for months, or even years, often while looking at resale homes to try to convince themselves to buy instead building.

If you are stuck in this quagmire, I'd be happy to meet with you (via Zoom?) to talk through some of the pros and cons and try to help you come to a decision you'll be pleased with in the short and long term. 

 

Some sellers are certainly waiting to put their house on the market given everything happening with COVID-19, but it seems that plenty of sellers are still listing their homes for sale...

Is Coronavirus slowing down home buyers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  It seems it may be, somewhat, but it's probably too early to make any definitive conclusions.

Based on the graph above...

Anyhoo - lots of data, lots of possible conclusions, lots of caveats, and lots to continue to monitor over time.

If you're thinking of buying or selling this Spring, let's chat about what makes sense from a timing perspective given continually changing market dynamics.

 

If you're buying a home, get ready for a few extra questions from home sellers, at least for the time being...

Most would-be home buyers in this area seem to be able to continue with their home purchasing plans despite the implications of COVID-19, but it is likely to interrupt some buyers' jobs, and thus income, and thus ability to buy a home.

So, if your job IS secure (hopefully most everyone's) and you are getting ready to make an offer on a house, be sure to put some though into how you can best help the seller understand that your job is secure despite the changes we are seeing from COVID-19.

And don't be surprised if the seller wants to know ALL about your employer, your job, if you are working on site or from home, if you have had any reduction in your hours, if there is any talk of your job being scaled back or eliminated, etc.

Sellers are just trying to do their due diligence to make sure they don't get halfway to closing and then find out that the buyer's income has declined (or has been interrupted) and they can't follow through with their home purchase.

Maybe the nice cover letter with a photo of your family and pets that accompanied some offers will now be replaced by a copy of your job description!?  :-)

 

Unless you are paying cash for your next home, you'll need to be able to show your mortgage company that you have a steady source of income with which you'll be able to make your mortgage payments.  That source of income is usually going to be from your job. 

Some jobs are more interrupted by COVID-19 than other jobs. 

Plenty of would-be home buyers are still working, perhaps from home, perhaps online, or perhaps their job is one that requires them to keep reporting to their place of employment. 

Some would-be buyers are having their hours scaled back, or are seeing their income decline, based on changes in business operations.

So, BUYERS should keep in mind that if your income is (or is likely to become) interrupted by COVID-19 developments, then we may want to press the *pause* button on the home search just for a moment. 

And SELLERS should keep in mind that there may be somewhat fewer buyers in the market to buy your home if their income has been (or might be) interrupted by COVID-19 developments.

Thus far, it doesn't seem that we're going to see most buyers not being able to buy homes because their income is being affected -- but we are likely to see at least somewhat of a decline in buyer activity.