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My Predictions for the Harrisonburg Area Real Estate Market in 2016 |
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![]() Last year (2015) was a solid year for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County residential real estate market, with a 3% increase in the pace of home sales. This level of home sales (1,022) was the highest number of home sales seen anytime in the previous seven years. I expect that we will see continued improvement in the number of home buyers purchasing homes in our local area in 2016. As shown to the right, I am predicting a 5% improvement in the pace of sales, for a total of 1,175 home sales in 2016. I believe we will see continued increases in local employment opportunities, combined with only small increases in mortgage interest rates, leading to continued increases in home buyer activity. ![]() After three years (2012, 2013, 2014) of very small increases in the median sales price (+1%, +2%, +2%) we finally did see a more substantial increase in 2015. The 4% increase in the median sales price last year increased the median price to $185,000 -- the highest price seen since back in 2009. Over the next year, expect that we will see further improvements up to a median sales price of $192,500. If this indeed happens, this will be the third highest annual median sales price we have ever seen in this area. The highest median sales prices on record of $195,000 in 2008 and $195,100 in 2009 were both during the real estate boom. | |
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Home sales between $300K - $400K are running counter to the rest of the market |
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![]() Theories are welcome! As shown above, the under $200K market has been flat over the past year ,the $200K-$300K and $400K+ markets have increased by at least 30% over the past year -- but the $300K - $400K market has declined by 25%. One year ago, an average of 9.8 homes were selling in this price range ($300K-$400K) each month. That has declined (over the past year) to an average of 7.4 sales per month. | |
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The Single Family Home Market in 2015 |
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![]() The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County told two two different stories last year (2015), depending on whether we were evaluating the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2015) marked the third year in a row with between 810 and 820 home sales -- so, virtually no change in the pace of home sales. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes increased by 5% to $200,000 -- which is the first time we have seen a $200K or higher median sales price since 2005-2009. It is encouraging that sales prices are increasing even without substantial increases in the number of home sales. Read more in my Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report.... ![]() | |
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The Townhouse Market in 2015 |
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![]() The graph above examines townhouse, duplex and condo sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As you can see, there has been quite an uptick of activity over the past few years --- an increase from 179 sales/year in 2011 to 304 in 2015. In the past year, the number of annual sales has increased by 14%. Prices, however, have not increased over the past year. After an 11% increase in the median sales price in 2014, the median sales price did not budge in 2015 -- it stayed right at $151,750. Read more in my Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report.... ![]() | |
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Prepare for Spring by Signing Up For New Listing Alerts |
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![]() Inventory levels may be quite low right now, but we will start to see more and more homes coming on the market in the next few months. If you are in the market to buy a home this Spring, start watching for what is coming on the market using NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com. ![]() On NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com you can quickly and easily scroll through the most recent residential listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, view the pertinent details, all of the photographs of the home, an area map, and then quickly and easily share that new listing with a friend, your spouse, your Realtor, etc. You can also sign up to receive an email alert every time there is a new listing.... ![]() And, finally, you can add the website to the home screen if you'd like, for quick and easy access.... ![]() If you have any questions about this website, or suggestions for improving it, just let me know. Until then, go check it out, at NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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Harrisonburg Year End Real Estate Market Report |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 6190 Dotts Lane I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, or download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... ![]() A year-end look at the numbers is always fun -- we finally have all of the numbers in and now we know the following about 2015 when looking at the residential real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....
But wait! Before we mash all of the data together and call everything wonderful, here is something interesting.... ![]() As shown above....
Here is a colorful and fun and uplifting graph.... ![]() Just another visual indication (above) of the improvements we have seen in our local real estate market over the past few years. The most notable jump in the pace of sales was between 2012 and 2013 -- but we finally broke into the 1100's this past year. Buyer Activity.... ![]() As shown above, contracts picked up a bit in December 2015 -- to 67 contracts as compared to only 63 last December. However -- the annual pace of buyers signing contracts declined slightly, from 1192 to 1172. Of note -- despite fewer contracts in 2015 -- there were more sales -- which is an indication that more contracts are successfully making it through to closing. More and Much, Much More.... There is more, oh so much more, in my full year-end real estate market report. I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online.... ![]() And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market! Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next. Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. If you are ready to buy or sell a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com to get the process started. | |
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Board of Supervisors to consider Lakeview Golf Club Rezong Request |
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![]() The Planning Commission for Rockingham County has already signed off on a rezoning of part of Lakeview Golf Club to allow for building lots for single family homes to be developed and sold. These building lots would be in the general vicinity of Great Oaks, Crossroads Farm and Magnolia Ridge. This potential rezoning of 10.33 acres would allow for up to 21 single family homes. The 10.33 acres is a part of Lakeview Golf Club's overall plan to sell off 75 acres (9 of the its 36 golf holes) -- though 65 of the acres are already zoned for residential use. The Board of Supervisors will be considering this rezoning request next week. Read all about this potential rezoning in these two recent Daily News Record articles:
View a larger map of the area here. | |
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After almost ten years, the Fed raised rates, and wait until you see what happened to mortgage interest rates |
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![]() So, after almost a decade, the Fed raised rates. What happened to mortgage interest rates? Per the graph above, not much has happened thus far. Rates have edged up a bit over the past few weeks, and have headed back into the 4-point-something territory, but we were there (and a bit higher) as recently as this past summer, so that's not necessarily new territory. Maybe if we look back a bit further, we'll see that this rise to 4.01% is really disastrous? ![]() Nope! If we look back over the past three years (2013-2015) we'll notice that there as a long time frame during those years (shaded in yellow) when the rates were above 4 percent. So, we'll see where things go from here, but thus far, the Fed's actions do not seem to have resulted in an end to super low mortgage interest rates. | |
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The Big Picture of Selling Your Home |
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![]() There are some aspects of your home (such as location, location, location) that are beyond your control. Your home's location and neighborhood will affect the price you can obtain for your home, how quickly it can sell, and much more. But moving outside of that central factor, there are three significant areas that are in your control when you are selling your home: price, condition and marketing. PRICE... First, we will look backwards to see what buyers have recently been paying for houses similar to your home. This will give us an indication of the current market value of your home. We must then also compare your home to competing listings that current buyers will be considering alongside your home. With this information we will develop a pricing strategy that will allow us to obtain the highest possible price for your home while still selling it within your desired time table. CONDITION... As you prepare your home for the market, we must consider potential updates and upgrades to your home to eliminate objections and reduce distractions. This may be by way of minor repairs and upgrades, more significant projects, or staging your home to allow it to show best to buyers. We will develop a plan after walking through your home together and looking at it from a buyer's perspective, to identify areas where we can have the most impact with planned changes. MARKETING... A home that is priced well, and prepared well for the market, will not sell if it is not thoroughly and professionally marketed. The balance of this website outlines the strategies I use to market my listings to the widest possible pool of prospective purchasers. Once we have priced your home appropriately, prepared it well and implemented the marketing plan, there will still be three other areas for us to focus on as we work towards a successful sale of your home: follow up, adjustments and negotiation. FOLLOW UP... We will often start to receive feedback on your home as soon as it hits the market. This may be questions from Realtors, questions from buyers, online web views of your property, buyers driving by and picking up a brochure or showings being scheduled. As there are specific buyers that are considering your home, it will be important to follow up with each buyer (or their Realtor) to find out what they did and did not like, what questions they had, what concerns or objections they mentioned, and what they thought of the price and condition of the home. ADJUSTMENTS... We will be attempting to have your home in the perfect condition for buyers and to have the perfect list price on your home from Day 1. Sometimes, however, based on the feedback we have received from prospective buyers we may need to make adjustments to the condition of your home (additional improvements, projects, staging, etc.) or to the pricing of your home. It is important to regularly discuss the market feedback we are receiving so that we can make appropriate adjustments to our pricing and marketing tactics. NEGOTIATION... When we do receive an offer it will be important to review and discuss all of the terms of the buyer's offer and discuss a negotiating strategy to maximize the benefit to you. Sometimes we will simply be negotiating on price, but oftentimes these negotiations will involve timing, contingencies, personal property and much more. | |
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103 Pheasant Run Townhouses Sold for $10.4 Million |
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![]() Pheasant Run Townhomes is a college rental community comprised of 143 townhouses. Of those 143 townhouses, 103 are corporately owned and 40 are privately owned. The privately owned townhouses have recently been selling in the $140K's.... ![]() The latest news is that the 103 townhouses that are corporately owned sold for $10,425,000 on December 18, 2015 to TRP Pheasant Run Manager LLC, a company affiliated with Thalhimer Realty Partners, which is a subsidiary of Cushman & Wakefield/Thalhimer. As per today's article in the Daily News Record.... Matt Raggi, a vice president with Thalhimer Realty Partners, said the company will operate the property. It owns and operates almost 4,000 apartment units in Virginia and the Carolinas, including student markets such as Richmond, Norfolk and Chapel Hill, N.C.Absent any major changes in strategy by the new corporate owner (which seems unlikely) I anticipate that the 40 privately owned townhouses will continue to sell for similar prices as they have in the recent past, and that the community will remain a good option for investors looking to purchase a student housing rental property. Find out more about Pheasant Run at HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com. | |
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Inventory levels are quite low, but it is quite normal |
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![]() Inventory levels are quite low right now -- there are only 553 homes for sale -- but this is quite normal for this time of year. Several of my clients have recently commented on the very low number of new listings they have seen in the past month. Hopefully we'll see some soon, though last year inventory levels stayed quite low from January through March. | |
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Fact Checking My 2015 Predictions |
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So.......back on January 12 of this year, I made some predictions...... ![]() As shown above, I was predicting....
Well, let's see how I did. Looking at all of the data in the system thus far (a few more 2015 sales will likely be reported in the next week) this is what I'm finding....
It turns out I was a bit conservative on the increase in home sales, but pretty darn close on the increase in sales price. Stay tuned for my 2016 predictions coming in January. | |
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Planning Commission Approves Largest Commercial Rezoning Since 2003 |
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![]() The Planning Commission has approved the rezoning of an 8 acre parcel on the corner of East Market Street and Country Club Road. City Council will be considering the rezoning on January 12, 2016. The potential rezoning is somewhat historic.... "Brian Shull, the city's economic development director, said the parcel could become the first noncommercial lot of 7 acres or more along East Market to be rezoned for commercial use since 2003, when Harrisonburg Crossing was created at the former Dunham-Bush plant."Two changes were actually needed, as outlined in this Daily News Record article.... For the project to move forward, the parcel's land-use designation in the city's comprehensive plan must be changed to commercial from conservation recreation. The property then must be rezoned to general business district conditional from single-family residential district. Senior planner Alison Banks said the Harrisonburg Planning Commission approved both requests unanimously on Dec. 9. City Council also must sign off and is slated to take up the matter at its Jan. 12 meeting. The change makes sense to the city's planning staff, she said, because of the nature of traffic in the area and utilities on the site. "This portion of the country club that we'd be subdividing off along East Market Street is at a busy intersection," Banks said. "Large [Harrisonburg Electric Commission] power lines run thorough it, too." The conceptual site plan presented to the Planning Commission shows two entrances to the small center - a standard one with turn lanes off Country Club Road, and a right in, right out off East Market Street at the property's eastern edge.Find out more about this parcel of land at SpotswoodLand.com. The proposed site plan (pdf) is included below.... ![]() | |
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Still looking for that perfect gift for that special someone? How about a new house? |
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![]() Are you still doing your last minute Christmas shopping? Are you still looking for that perfect gift for that special someone in your life? Perhaps a new house would be a perfect thing to tuck into their stocking, to hang on the mantle, above the fireplace, of their new house? :) OK -- clearly, it's a slower time of year -- though last year there were three buyers (and thus three sellers) who signed a contract on December 24th or 25th. Oh, and between Christmas and New Years Eve? Another six! Whether you are buying a house in the next week (to nine days) or not, I hope that it is a peaceful, relaxing and joyful time for you and your family. | |
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Fewer and fewer and fewer foreclosures |
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![]() There have been fewer and fewer and fewer foreclosures of properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in recent years. We're still not back to the sub-100 level of 2000-2007, but we're a lot better off than we were when we were seeing over 200 foreclosures per year. The data point for 2015 shown above (128 trustee sales) only includes Jan 1 - Nov 30 data. | |
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Updated City Real Estate Assessments Released |
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![]() Updated assessed values were released earlier this month for all properties in the City of Harrisonburg, and they have now also been updated on HarrisonburgAssessments.com. As per the December 3, 2015 Daily News Record article....
Read more in the DNR article, or find the assessed value of any property in the City (or County) at HarrisonburgAssessments.com. | |
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In the event that the cold usually associated with Winter ever arrives... |
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![]() Next Tuesday (December 22) is the first day of Winter. The weather forecast shows we'll likely have 57 degree temperatures. Hmmm. Winter, huh? Might be a rather warm Christmas!?! Well, anyhow, if the cold usually associated with winter ever arrives, you may want to check out this tip from Charles Hendricks, an architect in Harrisonburg who performs energy audits. Seal your electrical outlets to improve your home comfort As Charles points out.... "In every house I visit to do an energy audit, the electrical outlets have been a major source of air infiltration. Sealing these holes up in your thermal envelope will reduce your energy usage and make your home more comfortable."Have you sealed your electrical outlets? How long did it take? How much did it cost? Did you experience the difference? | |
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Will mortgage interest rates shoot skyward? |
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![]() The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will raise its key interest rate for the first time in almost a decade. This is expected to lead to gradual increases in mortgage interest rates. WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it would raise short-term interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, a decision it described as a vote of confidence in the American economy even as much of the rest of the world struggles.Read more in this NY Times article. | |
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After a weird dip last year, land is back to selling for around $14K per acre |
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![]() I'll take a look at how these prices per acre vary within different acreage ranges soon -- but for now, know that all 1+ acre lots that are selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling at a median of $14,025 per acre. Last year's median of $9,932 was an odd departure from the previous several years. | |
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Homes Sales Increasing, Except Between $300K and $400K |
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![]() The pace of home sales is increasing in every price range except $300K - $400K. There are only an average of 7.8 homes selling per month in the $300K - $400K price range, as compared to an average of 9.8 sales per month a year ago. This might seem like a small numerical change, but it amounts to a 21% decline in the pace of sales, and is in stark contrast to the increases seen in all of the other price ranges. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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