The real estate market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County continues to move quickly. Many homes are going under contract within just a few days of being listed –– and often at or above the asking price. If you're hoping to buy in the coming months, this fast pace can might make you feel hesitant to make an offer when you go view some houses.

If you tour a house and mostly like it mostly –– but feel the list price is just a bit too high –– should you make an offer?

Yes.

It's perfectly fine to make an offer below the asking price.

Will that offer be accepted? Maybe. Maybe not.

There might be other offers coming in at or above the list price. The seller might be set on their asking price and unwilling to negotiate. But submitting an offer below the list price is a reasonable thing to do.

Most sellers are not offended by an offer that is under the list price (depending on how much under the list price) –– and they typically understand that buyers are trying to make financially sound decisions. If you don't want to pay $X for a house, but you're willing to pay $Y, it's okay for us to make that offer to see if or how the seller will respond.

Of course, your odds of success with a below–list–price offer will depend on several factors –– including how long the home has been on the market, how competitively it is priced, and whether there are other interested buyers.

But don't talk yourself out of making an offer just because you're not willing to meet the list price. It's better to make the offer and see what happens rather than to just walk away without trying.

  

Happy New Year!  

I hope you had a delightful holiday season and enjoyed ringing in the New Year.  Happy 2026!  I celebrated with a few hundred of my closest friends (ok, fine, my running acquaintances) in the VA Momentum Glow Run.

Before we get off and running with the market data (you like it, I know) a few quick notes...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Capital Ale House on Court Square in downtown Harrisonburg.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card.

Now, then, let's get into the latest market data... for December and looking back at all of 2025... in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

First, looking at the overall number of sales in the City and County...

December 2025 showed a surprising bump in home sales with 23% more than the prior December... but for the full year, we ended up seeing 3% fewer home sales in 2025 than in 2024.  

Meanwhile, when it comes to the prices of those homes...

After multiple years of faster than normal increases in the median sales price... those increases slowed to a stop in 2025.  The median sales price in 2025 was basically the same (+$460) as it was in 2024.  

And how about how quickly homes are going under contract...

Median days on market (the time it takes for a new listing to go under contract) has risen from 6 days to 8 days.  We'll see this shift a bit clearer in a later graph, but it is taking slightly longer for homes to go under contract these days.

Now, let's look briefly at a few specific market segments, starting with detached homes...

We saw 10% fewer detached home sales in 2025 as compared to 2024... though the median sales price of those homes increased 1% over the past year.  The median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is currently sitting at $390,000.  That means that half of detached homes that are selling are doing so below $390K and half are selling for more than $390K.

How about those attached homes, which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos...

The 10% decline in detached home sales was accompanied by a 13% increase in attached home sales... furthermore, the median sales price of attached homes increased 4% over the past year.  The median sales price of an attached home (townhouse, duplex or condo) is currently $316,000.

Now, for some geographical comparisons, here's the City of Harrisonburg...

It is becoming more and more difficult to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg as fewer and fewer are offered for sale.  The number of homes selling in the City of Harrisonburg declined from 303 in 2023 to 295 in 2024 to 279 in 2025.  The median sales price, however, has increased 3% to $304,900.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

We saw a slightly smaller decline in the number of homes selling in Rockingham County... with 2% fewer selling in 2025 compared to 2024.  The increase in the median sales price, however, was also smaller... increasing 1% to $354,900 for all homes sold in Rockingham County.

Now, let's look just at new home sales...

After only 304 new home sales in 2023... that jumped up to 394 in 2024... and then declined 7% last year to 365 new home sales in 2025.  Over the past year the median sales price of new homes has also declined slightly, by 3%, to $339,500.

But if you're not looking to buy a new home, you might be interested to note these trends in the sale of existing (resale) homes...

We saw about the same number of existing home sales in 2025 (987) as we saw in 2024 (995) and the median sales price of those existing homes increased by 3% to $351,000.

Now, having looked through the main numbers... let's put the data into some graphs to try to get a visual sense of the latest trends through the end of 2025.

A few things to note on the graph above...

[1]  December home sales were quite a bit stronger than expected... with 119 sales compared to only 97 last December.  

[2]  But, keep in mind, November 2025 home sales were sort of slow, so maybe some of those buyers didn't end up closing on their purchase until December.

[3]  Looking back to this past January, February and March – they were quite slow (79 – 84 home sales) and thus we might have a few slow months ahead of us if that pattern continues.

Now, a look at the full year of 2025, stacked up against prior years...

This past year (2025) started off slow and never caught up to 2024.  Both years, though, showed more home sales than 2023.  In a possible bouncing ball effect (down, up, down, up) perhaps we'll see an increase in home sales in 2026.

Here, then, are the slow moving long term trend lines...

Prices are flat... and sales are slowing.  The captions say it all.  After several years of rapidly increasing prices (see the next graph) we are now seeing very little change in home prices, and technically, a slight decline over the past six months.  Meanwhile, we're seeing an overall decline in the number of homes that are selling.

Here's an even longer look back, with year to year sales and price trends...

The graph above shows eight years of increases in the median sales price (from $193K to $345K) followed by last year, with no increase at all.  Last year also showed a slight decline in the number of homes that are selling.

What times next for home sales and prices?  I think we are going to see a slight increase in the number of homes that are selling and the prices at which they are selling, but stay tuned to see how it all shakes out.

Perhaps 2026 will get off to a good start based on what this next graph shows...

We typically see around 86 contracts signed in December... but there were 102 signed in December 2025.  Perhaps this will lead to a slightly stronger month of closed home sales in January and/or February.

Perhaps those higher contract numbers were a result of more homes being available for sale...

We are starting to see inventory levels decline (241 down to 184 over the past two months) but current inventory levels are still quite a bit higher than they were a year ago.  We closed out 2024 with about 138 homes for sale, and a year later, it's 184 homes for sale.  We are likely to see inventory levels continue to increase as we move through the next few months.

Here's the graph I referenced earlier, showing days on market...

Two years ago (late 2023) we saw the median days on market metric increase significantly leading up to and through the new year... and we saw that again this past year.  I'll be continuing to monitor this over the next few months to see if days on market starts to decline again after the spike (like it did two years ago) or whether these numbers remain elevated.

Finally, mortgage interest rates...

This is one situation in which a declining trend is positive news... mortgage interest rates have been mostly declining over the past year (from 6.85% to 6.15%) which slowly but surely makes monthly housing costs (for new buyers) slightly more affordable than previously.

So, what does all of this mean for you?

Key Takeaways for Buyers...

Interest Rates Are Easing – This will either increase your purchasing power, or reduce your monthly cost as compared to if you bought six months or a year ago – good news for you!

More Homes to Choose From – Inventory levels are higher than a year ago (184 vs. 138), giving you more options... and we haven't even reached the Spring market yet!

Prices Are Holding Steady – Home prices flattened in 2025 after years of rapid increases. It is not yet clear how long this level period will last, but enjoy it while it is here.

Key Takeaways for Sellers...

Many Homes Are Taking Slightly Longer to Sell – Days on market have ticked up from 6 to 8 days. While this is only a slight uptick, pricing and presentation continue to be more important than ever to ensure a speedy and successful sale.

Expect Only Modest Price Gains – The market is no longer seeing the large year–over–year price jumps of the past. You should be prepared for pricing that's comparable to or only slightly higher than last year.

Slower Months Ahead – January and February typically are slower months for contracts to be signed, though plenty of sellers who have listed their homes thus far in 2026 have found success already.

If you are considering selling your home this Spring (or sooner) or if you are getting ready for a home purchase in 2026, let's set up a time to chat to talk about the market, the process and your dreams and goals.

If you've decided that you'll be selling your home in the near future, you may be asking the same question that many other homeowners are pondering right now... 

Should I go ahead and list my home now, or wait until spring?

I can't offer one perfect answer for all sellers and all homes... but let's explore some reasons why each option might make sense depending on your situation.

Why You Might Wait Until Spring

1.  Improved Curb Appeal

Spring will bring greener grass, blooming flowers, trees on the leaves –– all of which will improve the presentation of your home in listing photos and in person. 

2.  More Buyers Enter the Market

As we head into March and April, more buyers typically start their home search. Listing in the spring might mean more buyers checking out your home and possibly more buyers ready to make offers.

Why It Might Make Sense to List Now

1.  Less Competition from Other Sellers

Right now, fewer homeowners are putting their homes on the market. That means if you list now, your home could stand out simply because there aren't as many options available to buyers.  Less competition might lead to a faster sales.

Every home –– and every market segment –– is a little different. The ideal timing for your home sale may depend on factors like the price range, location and even the condition of your home.

If you are trying to decide whether to list your home now or wait until spring, let's talk things things through related to your home and your situation.

  

Over the past six months, mortgage interest rates have been steadily trending downward. After rising above 7% earlier in 2025, the average 30–year fixed mortgage rate ended the year at 6.15%... well below the 12 month average of 6.6%.

So, what might this mean for buyers and sellers as we head into 2026?

Buyers...

Lower mortgage rates can potentially translate into more affordable monthly payments. If you were priced out of the market over the past few years in part due to high interest rates, declining rates may make it more feasible for you to purchase a home in 2026.

Sellers...

On the selling side, declining rates may mean (slightly) more buyers can consider your home. In much of 2025, sellers were selling in a market where buyers were very cautious due to higher borrowing costs. If interest rates continue to ease, we may see more buyers ready to make a get into the market –– particularly if they've been waiting on the sidelines for lower rates.

What's next for 2026?

If rates remain in the low 6% range –– or dip further –– buyers may have more confidence and purchasing power, and sellers could benefit from increased activity.
  

Listing inventory has been trending upwards for most of the past year.  

Each data point on the graph above shows the average inventory level for the 12 months leading up to that date.  Here are a few of the specific data points shown above...

December 2023 – average of 162 homes for sale for the 12 months of 2023

December 2024 – average of 169 homes for sale for the 12 months of 2024

Today – average of 199 homes for sale for the 12 months of 2025

What will we see in 2026?  Will inventory levels continue to trend upwards?  I suspect we will see these levels continue to rise through 2026, though it won't be in all price ranges or for all property types.

   

Were my predictions for 2025 accurate?  Well, not exactly.

But... nonetheless... I'll go ahead and throw some predictions out there for 2026.  Let's start with how many homes might sell in 2026...

After a 4% decline in home sales in 2025, I am predicting a 2% in home sales in 2026.  This would bring annual home sales up to 1,360 for 2026... above 2025 but not quite as many sales as 2024.  I think slightly lower mortgage interest rates and slightly more listing inventory will create a slight uptick in home sales activity in 2026.

What about home prices?

After a 4.5% increase in the median sales price in 2024... we saw only a negligible change (+$980) in the median sales price in 2025.  I am predicting a modest, 1%, increase in the median sales price in 2026.  While lower mortgage interest rates and slightly higher inventory levels might cause sales to increase a bit in 2026, I don't think there will be enough buyer activity to cause prices to meaningfully increase in 2026.

What are your predictions for 2026?

  

It's hard to believe it's already 2026... but here we go with another new year!

Before I get to 2026 predictions, let's see how 2025 finished out compared to my predictions a year ago...

2024 Home Sales = 1,389

My Prediction for 2025 = 1,400 

Actual Home Sales in 2025 = 1,330

So... there were fewer home sales in 2025 than I expected... and fewer home sales than in 2024.  

How about median sales prices...

2024 Median Sales Price = $345,000

My Prediction for 2025 = $359,500

Actual Median Sales price in 2025 = $345,460

The median sales price did not rise in 2025 as I expected that it would... it finished out the year right about where it started.

So... my predictions did not pan out all that well in 2025... the market was slower (fewer home sales) than I expected and prices did not increase.

Stay tuned for my predictions for 2026... though keep the inaccuracies of my 2025 predictions in mind when reading my predictions for 2026.  ;–)

    

Buyers (and thus, sellers) were active this past November and December... compared to the same months last year.

In the last two months of 2025 we saw 190 contracts signed... a 17% increase over the 162 contracts signed in the last two months of 2024.

What did these 190 buyers contract to buy in the last two months of 2025?

  

If you're looking to buy a $400K home in the City of Harrisonburg in the New Year, here's a look at what you might finding yourself buying!  

Over the past six months, ten homes have sold between $375K and $425K in the City of Harrisonburg, nine of which are shown above.

What did those ten buyers buy over the past six months for around $400K?

Happy New Year!

  

Would you be comfortable with a contract that only says this...

"This contract is contingent on the sale of 123 Main Street."

What if that one sentence is all that your contract includes when it comes to the buyer needing to sell their current home?

If that's the case, I'd suggest you might be missing out on several key protections –– protections that could make a big difference in whether (and when) your home actually sells.

A simple home sale contingency, without any additional terms, leaves quite a few questions unanswered:

1.  When will their current home be listed for sale?

If it's not even on the market yet, there's no telling when –– or if –– it might sell.

2.  How long will it take to go under contract?

You could be tied up for weeks or months with no progress.

3.  Will it ever actually get to closing?

Even if they find a buyer, things can still fall apart before settlement.

4.  What if another interested buyer comes along?

Are you stuck, or can you accept a stronger, non–contingent offer?

Fortunately, all of these concerns can be addressed if we add some specific parameters and protections to the contract.

Here are some common examples:

1.  The buyers will have their current home listed by [insert date].

2.  If the buyer's home is not under contract by [insert date], you can terminate.

3.  If the buyer's home has not closed by [insert date], you can terminate.

4.  You can continue to market the home and accept backup or non–contingent offers.

Now, this isn't the exact wording we would use in a real contract –– but they give you a sense of what's reasonable to include when a buyer needs to sell their home in order to buy your home.

And there's more to consider…

What if the buyer already has their home under contract –– but that contract falls through? How do we handle that possibility?

If you're selling your home to a buyer who needs to sell theirs first, we'll want to talk through each scenario carefully and make sure the contract is written to protect your interests.
   

Sometimes a fast home sale becomes the priority –– and for good reason.

Maybe you've already moved out and would rather not keep making a mortgage payment on a home you no longer live in. Perhaps you're relocating and need to sell quickly so you can move forward with buying a new home elsewhere. Or maybe you've just had tenants move out of your rental property, and with no rental income to offset the mortgage, holding onto the property no longer makes sense.

Whatever the reason, some sellers tell me they are focused on a speedy sale –– and that's perfectly reasonable. But if speed is the goal, we need to make sure our pricing and marketing plans will support that goal.

Preparing your home well for the market and ensuring it's marketed thoroughly and professionally are both important steps toward a speedy sale. But one of the most important factors –– is pricing.

If recent comparable sales in your neighborhood have been around $300K, a price of $295K, $299K, or even $305K could make sense for your home. But pricing it at $325K? That's probably not going to help you achieve that faster than normal sale.

Likewise, if similar homes have recently sold around $210K, then pricing yours at $205K, $209K, or $215K keeps you in the right range. Pricing at $230K may only lead to a longer time on the market –– the opposite of what you said you wanted.

Bottom line –– if selling quickly is truly the priority, then pricing your home appropriately from the start is essential. The right price, combined with good preparation and effective marketing, will give us the best chance of achieving your goal.

  

Home buyers over the past few years would likely describe their home purchase as anything but affordable.  Home prices and mortgage interest rates were both rising, causing a buyer's monthly payment to increase year after year.  But looking ahead to 2026, there are a few trends that might combine to bring at least some relief to buyers.

Let's take a look at three factors that could make home buying slightly more affordable in 2026...

1. Wages Are Slowly Increasing

Wages don't always rise quickly, but over time we've seen consistent upward movement. Even a small increase in income can improve your purchasing power –– especially when combined with stable home prices or lower borrowing costs. If wages continue to trend upward into 2026, it could give you a bit more breathing room.

2. Mortgage Rates Are (Slowly) Heading Down

After a few years of sharp increases, mortgage interest rates have been trending downward –– though at a slow and steady pace. If this trend continues into 2026, even slightly lower rates can make a meaningful difference in monthly mortgage payments. Lower rates = higher affordability.

3. Home Prices Have Flattened Out

Locally, we have seen very little change in the median sales price over the past year. That's a significant shift after several years of rapid price growth. If home prices remain stable moving into and through 2026, that will help keep monthly payments under control for new buyers.

So, Will You Be Able to Buy a Home More Affordably in 2026?

It's possible. If wages continue to inch up, mortgage interest rates continue to inch down, and home prices remain relatively flat –– the combined effect could be a slight increase in affordability if you are looking to buy a home in 2026.

Of course, each of these trends could shift in a different direction –– but if they move in the directions that are expected and predicted, you may find more success in buying a home in 2026 than you did in 2025.

  

If you've been casually keeping an eye on the local housing market, you may have noticed something lately –– there just aren't that many homes for sale right now.

That's not unusual for this time of year. As the holiday season rolls in, inventory levels often decline. Some sellers decide to take their homes off the market in December, choosing to focus on holiday gatherings, travel, or simply to avoid showings during a quieter time of year.

But many of those homes –– and others that didn't make it onto the market before the holidays –– often come back on the market after the first of the year or in early spring.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're house hunting right now (or even just thinking about it), you're likely seeing fewer options than you did a month or two ago. You might even be putting your search on pause as the year winds down.

The good news? You'll likely start to see more listings pop up in January, and even more as we approach the spring market. So if you're not seeing a good fit today, there's a decent chance more options will be available in the coming weeks and months.

What This Means for Sellers

If your home is currently on the market, you may be benefiting from reduced competition. With fewer listings available, your home may stand out more to the buyers who are still actively searching during the holidays. That said, there are often fewer buyers shopping right now too –– many are waiting until after the holidays to re–engage in the process.

If you're planning to put your home on the market in the new year, be prepared for more competition. Inventory typically rises in January and February, and then again as we head into the spring season.

Of course, every seller's situation is different. It may make sense for some to leave their home on the market through the holidays, while others may benefit from taking a short break until after the new year.

Curious about what makes the most sense for your situation?

Let's talk. I'd be happy to help you weigh the pros and cons of timing your home sale –– or your home search –– as we head into the new year.

   

One of the decisions you'll have to make when you're thinking about buying a house –– or when you're in the process of making an offer –– is whether or not you'd like to have a home inspection.

You may be wondering: What does a home inspection actually involve? What does a home inspector do?

At a basic level, a home inspector's job is to evaluate a house's condition. But that can mean many different things, so let's break it down.

What a Home Inspector WILL do

A home inspector performs a non–invasive evaluation of a home.

They assess the home's major systems and visible components, including the roof, structure, interior, plumbing, electrical, heating, and cooling systems, among others.

They also test many of the everyday items in a house––appliances, outlets, faucets, toilets, and more.

They aren't looking for perfection. Every home has issues, even newer ones. Instead, they're looking for signs of problems or clues that could point to current or future issues.

What a Home Inspector WILL NOT do

A home inspector won't open up walls, cut into ceilings, or tear systems apart. They won't do anything that causes damage or involves invasive testing.

They also won't tell you whether a house is “good” or “bad,” or whether you should or shouldn't buy it. Their job is to present the facts clearly and objectively. They aren't there to point out minor cosmetic flaws, like small scratches, a speck on the floor, or normal and expected signs of aging.

The goal of a home inspection is to give buyers clear, useful information, so they can move forward with a better understanding of what they're buying.

The Takeaway

A home inspection isn't about finding a "perfect" house. It's about understanding the one you're buying.

If you're wondering whether a home inspection makes sense for your situation, how it might affect your offer, or who to trust for the inspection itself, I'd love to help point you in the right direction.

When you're considering a home purchase, you might find yourself glancing at the tax assessment and compare it to the list price.

Sometimes the two numbers line up nicely –– within a few percentage points of each other.

Other times, the difference is a bit more dramatic.

For the sake of this discussion, let's assume the list price of a home reflects its market value. Yes, I know that's not always true –– but it's a useful perspective for considering this topic.

When the tax assessment and market value are rather far apart, there are usually one of two explanations.

1. The home has been over improved in ways the City or County has not fully realized.

If a homeowner has made significant improvements over time –– such as a new roof, replacement windows, updated siding, new flooring, a renovated kitchen or bathrooms, modern lighting, or a new heating system –– the assessor may not be aware of all of those changes.

Some improvements get picked up during reassessments. Others do not.

When that happens, the assessed value can lag behind reality, and the market value (and list price) ends up being noticeably higher than the tax assessment.

In short, the house is worth more than the public records suggest.

2. The home has been under improved in ways the City or County cannot see

The opposite situation also happens quite often.

A homeowner may have owned a property for decades and made very few updates. From the outside, everything looks fine. But inside, the home may need substantial investment just to bring it up to average condition for its age.

In that case, the tax assessment may assume a level of condition and functionality that simply isn't there –– and the market value (and list price) ends up being lower than the assessed value.

Why this happens so often

Tax assessments are based on the assessor's best estimate of value using public records, exterior observations, permits, and broad market data. Assessors typically are not walking through homes.

And without going inside, it can be very hard to know whether a 1950s home feels like a 2020 home… or like a 1900 home.

If a 1950s house feels like a 2020 house, it will probably sell for more than its assessment.

If a 1950s house feels like a 1900 house, it will probably sell for less than its assessment.

The takeaway

When you see a home for sale with a list price that is significantly higher or lower than the tax assessment, don't jump to conclusions.

Instead, let's go take a look at the house if it is of interest.

The explanation is often found inside the home –– in the level of updates, maintenance, and overall condition –– not necessarily in an unreasonable asking price.

The assessment is a useful data point, but it is frequently not an accurate proxy for market value.

  

If you are buying a home with less than 20 percent down, you will likely run into something called private mortgage insurance, or PMI.

PMI is insurance that protects the lender, not the buyer. When a smaller down payment is used, the lender takes on more risk, and PMI helps cover that risk.

When PMI is required

PMI is usually required on conventional loans when the down payment is less than 20 percent. The smaller the down payment, the more likely PMI will be part of the loan.

How PMI is paid

There are a few common ways PMI shows up.

1.  Most often, PMI is added to the monthly mortgage payment. 

2.  In some cases, it can be paid upfront at closing. 

3.  Sometimes the lender pays it, but the cost is built into a slightly higher interest rate.

You are paying for PMI in any of these scenarios, but how it appears can look different from loan to loan.

When PMI can go away

On most conventional loans, PMI can be removed once you reach about 20 percent equity in the home and is automatically removed around 22 percent.

Equity can come from paying the loan down over time or from the home increasing in value.

Not all mortgage insurance works this way. For example, FHA loans usually require mortgage insurance for the life of the loan unless it is refinanced.

Is PMI a bad thing

PMI is not ideal (since it increases your monthly housing cost) but it often makes homeownership possible sooner. Many buyers use PMI as a temporary cost while building equity.

The important part is knowing how much PMI will cost you and when it can be removed.

The bottom line

PMI is common, manageable, and usually temporary.

If you are putting less than 20 percent down, make sure you understand how PMI is being paid and when it can be removed.

    

Every house we walk through together will have its pros and cons.

Sometimes it's a large, beautiful kitchen at the expense of a smaller living room. Sometimes it's plenty of bedrooms but only one full bathroom. Sometimes it's an open floor plan with everything flowing together, and other times the rooms and spaces are clearly divided. Some homes have great outdoor living space but limited storage. Others have a fantastic location but a quirky layout.

None of those things are inherently good or bad.

One perspective I often encourage buyers to adopt while touring homes is this:

How will the patterns of your life be the same, different, better, or worse if you live in this house compared to where you live now?

Thinking and talking about that question can be more helpful than simply thinking about whether or not you like a house.

For example, maybe you currently live in a home with an open floor plan, but the house you're considering has very separated living spaces. The kitchen is closed off. The living room is its own room. The dining room is behind a door. Life will almost certainly feel different there. Is that change something you'll enjoy, tolerate, or resent over time?

Or consider how and where you eat and gather. If you now have a dining space where you share meals, have conversations late into the night, and where family and friends connect –– and the new house has no dining area but does have a large kitchen island with stools –– how might that change the flow of daily life? Will conversations feel more casual? More rushed? More connected? Less so?

Another common example involves bedroom locations. If you're used to having all bedrooms on the second level, but the new home has one bedroom on the main level and the rest upstairs, that's not just a detail of the floor plan. It can potentially change bedtime routines, privacy, noise patterns, and even how you move through the house each day. That change could be a positive, a negative, or something that requires adjustment.

As we walk through homes together, we won't just be evaluating square footage, finishes, or price. We'll be trying to imagine how your life will live and feel in each space.

There will almost always be tradeoffs. Buying a home almost always means some changes to the patterns of your days and how you use the space in your home. The goal isn't to find a house with no compromises –– it's to understand which changes will feel positive and exciting, and which might feel limiting or frustrating over time.
  

You've been keeping an eye on the market. A new listing pops up that looks promising. We reach out to schedule a showing, and we get it on the calendar. But then we hear this...

"Just so you know, the sellers have already received an offer."

Now what? Should we still go see it?

Well... it depends.

Here are a few ways to think through whether it still makes sense to go see the house:

1. You think you'll love it, you're pre–approved, and you could make a decision quickly.

Yes, let's go see it.

If the house looks like a great fit for you, your lender letter is ready, and you're in a position to make a quick decision, then yes –– we should definitely still go see the house.

Even with another offer on the table, there's often enough of a window of time where additional showings are still happening and when additional offers might be considered. If you're ready to act, you could still have the opportunity to buy the house.

2. You think you'll love it, but you don't have your lender letter ready.

Maybe, if it's easy to fit into your schedule.

Without a lender letter in hand, you likely won't be in a position to make a competitive offer quickly enough. So, you probably shouldn't go out of your way or rearrange your day to see the house. That said, if it's easy to fit in and you're just starting your search, it might still be helpful to see it –– even if it ends up being a missed opportunity.

3. You think you'll love it, you're pre–approved, but you tend to take your time deciding.

Maybe, again, if it's convenient for you.

Some buyers like to sleep on it, think it over, maybe visit the house a second time. And that's completely fine. But if you know that's how you operate, it might be worth recognizing that houses that already have offers may not stick around long enough for you to work through that process. So again, if it's easy to see it, let's do it –– but if it requires you to make a big schedule shuffle, it might not be worth the rush.

4. You're not even sure you'll like the house.

Probably not.

If you're only halfway interested in the home and mostly just curious, and there's already an offer on the table, then it may not be the best use of your time to go see the house. It's probably okay to let this one go and wait for a better fit.

Bottom line?

When there's already an offer on a house, it doesn't necessarily mean you're too late –– but it probably does mean that the decision making timeline will be shorter. If you're ready to make a strong offer quickly, let's go see it. If not, let's weigh whether it's worth seeing based on your interest level and how easily it fits into your schedule.

  

Lots to observe here, though please note that the 2025 total home sales figure (1,321) is an estimate, as I added theoretical December 2025 home sales by averaging the past three months of December.

So, some observations...

1.  Per the yellow arrow, if we take 2020–2022 out of the equation (because of Covid causing a mad rush on housing, and super low interest rates) then we see that the number of home sales per year has been generally trending upwards over the past 12 years.

2.  The 1,389 home sales last year was more than anytime in the 17 years before that – other than 2020–2022.

3.  The projected 1,321 home sales this year would be relatively similar to the number of home sales we have seen each year between 2016 and 2025... other than 2020–2022.

4.  The peak of 1,674 home sales in 2021 in the aftermath of Covid was only barely (+5) higher than the peak in 2005 which was largely due to loose lending decisions (subprime mortgages) causing many more people to buy than would have otherwise.

5.  Interestingly, the two surges (red bars) of 2004–2006 and 2020–2022 were both brought on by changes (in one way or another) in mortgage lending.  During 2004–2006, lending standards were allowing borrowers to qualify for loans that were not reasonable for them to be able to repay.  During 2020–2022 buyers were buying homes at super low interest rates.  

So, what might we see over the next three to five years?

I suspect we will see a slow increase in home sales each year for the next five years.

Perhaps (wild guesses here, as any five year guess would be) would include...

2025 = 1,321 

2026 = 1,375

2027 = 1,415

2028 = 1,455

2029 = 1,495

2030 = 1,535

What do you think will happen over the next five years relative to the number of homes that will be bought and sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

  

Happy Thursday afternoon!

It's been a busy day, with two beautiful new listings (an upscale duplex at The Glen at Cross Keys, plus a five bedroom brick home in Barrington) hitting the market, so my usual morning blast with my monthly report is now an afternoon blast.

First, a few fun updates (football, food, family – ordered chronologically, not by priority) before getting to the real estate market analysis...

First, who went to the JMU Sunbelt Championship game!?  What a fun time, cheering on the Dukes to victory!

As you know by now, JMU won the game and are the Sunbelt Champions, and we all stormed the field to celebrate!  OK, well, I didn't –– but many did...

Next up, JMU plays Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on Saturday, December 20 at 7:00 PM.  Go Dukes!!!

2.  Food (and family)

Thanksgiving is one of my favorite days (and meals) of the year.  It's wonderful to gather with family, relax, catch up on life, perhaps play some games, and eat SO many delicious foods!  

What is missing from my plate that was on your Thanksgiving plate?  

And don't say "vegetables" – can't you see someone put a single token green bean on my plate for me?

We ventured out to pick out and cut down our Christmas tree on the day after Thanksgiving, as per our family tradition... this year being accompanied by Luke's puppy with a seasonally appropriate name... Holly.  

That's a bit about the fun I've been up to for the past few weeks –– what about you?  

I hope your Thanksgiving was also relaxing and fulfilling and that you were able to spend time with family and friends.

And now... on to the real estate data... oh wait, not quite, another list of three...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a pair of tickets to the Steel Wheels Winter Roots Concert to take place at JMU's Wilson Hall on Saturday, January 26 featuring the Steel Wheels and The Lone Bellow.  Enter here for a chance to win a pair of tickets.

Finally, on to the latest data, trends and insights in our local housing market.  

First up, all residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

This year, thus far (through the end of November) we have seen 5% fewer home sales than last year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... a decline from 1,292 home sales down to 1,230 home sales.  That said, over the past six months (June through November) we have seen almost the same number of sales this year (746) as last year (743).

Prices, meanwhile, prices have stayed relatively stable over the past year...with a median sales price of $346,015 a year ago... and $345,730 today.

Now, let's see how those metrics differ for only detached homes...

Over the past year we have seen a larger decline (11% instead of 5%) in the number of detached homes selling... and their sales prices have also remained relatively stable with a median sales price this year of $390,000 compared to $389,900 last year.  Of note, this 2024 and 2025 median sales price for detached homes is quite a bit higher than in 2023 when it was $350,250.

Meanwhile, how about those attached homes...

We have actually seen an increase in attached homes (townhomes, duplexes, condos) over the past year... with 460 home sales this year (+11%) compared to only 423 last year.  The median sales price of attached homes has also increased by 3% over the past year, from $305K to $315K.

What about if we look only in the City of Harrisonburg?

We have seen 5% fewer home sales in the City in 2025 (same as for the overall market) but the median sales price of City homes has increased by 3% over the past year... from $295K to $305K.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

Just as in the City, and in the overall market, we have seen 5% fewer home sales in Rockingham County in 2025... but the median sales price has increased by about 1%, from $353K to $355K.

Dividing the market up one more time (new homes vs. resale) let's see what we find...

New homes have been a bit slower this year than last... with a 13% decline in the number of homes that are selling... though 2025 new home sales levels are still well above where we were in 2023.  Median sales prices, however, are down 3% for new homes –– though that can be significantly affected by the types of new homes that are being built, and the prices of those homes.

And what about the existing (resale) homes?

We have seen only a slight (2%) decline in the number of resale (existing) homes that have sold in 2025 compared to 2024... and the median sales price of those resale homes has increased 3% from $340K to $350K.  Stepping back a bit further, the median price of existing homes has increased from $310K to $350K over the past year years.

Now, let's start to try to see some overall trends by looking at some graphs of market activity for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

First off, there were well fewer closings in November than we might have otherwise expected.  Admittedly, the 136 closings last November was likely a bit of an anomaly, but this November's 96 closings was also well below the average of 110 closings for November when looking at 2021 through 2024 data.  Looking ahead, we are have somewhere around 100 (or 96?) closings in December.

Here's a graph that shows the overall trends in the market over the past year...

Median sales prices have stayed relatively stable/flat over the past year amidst a general downward trend in the number of homes that are selling.  As you'll see later in the report, inventory has risen and interest rates have fallen... so perhaps we will eventually see the number of homes selling start to increase again.

Zooming out a bit, here are those same trends in a longer context...

The lack of change in median sales price over the past year follow seven years of steady gains... with five of those years showing close to a 10% gain per year.  

The decline in the number of homes selling in 2025 is largely a part of a four year overall slow down, though we're basically just getting back to where we were before Covid.

To get a glimpse of where we will go next, let's look at contract activity...

November contract activity was about as predictable as it could possibly be –– with 96 contracts signed, compared to 91 last year.  

It is also interesting to note on the graph above that the October 2024 spike in contracts (138) is likely the cause of the November 2025 spike in home sales.

And how about those inventory levels?

Inventory levels have been trending down over the past few months, since peaking in July, though we don't currently seem likely to return to the sub 150 levels seen in December of last year.

Slightly higher inventory levels are helpful for buyers as they have slightly more choices when entering the market to buy.

The overall increase in inventory levels might also be the cause of the slightly higher "days on market" lately...

A year ago, the median "days on market" was six days...and we're now up to 9 days.  That's not a drastic change, but it does signal that it's taking a bit longer for homes to go under contract these days. 

Finally, how about those mortgage interest rates?

Mortgage interest rates have been slowly trending downwards over the past two years.  It has now been over three years with interest rates over 6%... and current rates are lower than all but three months out of the past three years.  

First, if you are thinking about buying a home soon...

More options + slightly slower pace. Inventory is higher than last year and homes are taking a bit longer to go under contract (median 9 days vs. 6), giving you a bit more breathing room and choice than in recent years.

Prices are stable – not surging. Median prices across most segments (detached, attached, city, county) have been remarkably flat over the past year, creating a more predictable pricing environment for buyers entering the market.

Interest rates are trending down. After three years of 6%+ rates, today's rates are lower than most months in that timeframe – improving affordability and potentially creating more opportunities for you as we move into 2026.

And what about if you will be selling soon...

Homes are still selling – just not as quickly. Sales counts are down modestly and days on market have increased, so you should prepare for slightly longer on the market and avoid assuming we will immediately receive an offer.

Stable pricing supports strong list prices. Despite fewer sales, prices have held steady across nearly every category, signaling that well–priced homes are selling at favorable prices without needing deep discounts.

More competition means preparation matters. With inventory higher than last year and buyers having more choices, you will benefit from a strong pricing strategy, thoughtful preparations of your home, and ensuring that your home stands out both online and in person.

I'll be reaching out with my next market update... next year!?!!  So, enjoy the balance of 2025 and I hope you are able to spend some time with those who matter most to you over the coming weeks!