If you haven't driven down Pear Street lately, or into Cobblers Valley, you might have missed the large townhouse rental community that is currently under development.

The Mark features two, three and four bedroom townhomes for rent... with rental rates seemingly between $2,175 and $2,575 per month.

Per the site plan (below) there may be as many as 49 townhouses currently available for rent... with more on the way in 2025 and 2026.

The Mark is located off of Pear Street, close to its intersection with Erickson Avenue.

Happy Monday morning, friends!

It seems it might start feeling like Spring in the Shenandoah Valley this week.  While this morning started off just below freezing... we'll clear 60 degrees by this afternoon... and we might even see 70 tomorrow and Wednesday!

The big question, though, is will the local real estate market start heating up as the weather warms up?  January and February have been slower than usual in the local housing market –– with fewer home sales than past months of January and February.

But before we take a look through some market data, two quick notes...

#1 – Each month I offer a giveaway to the readers of my market report.  This month, I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Mashita.  My favorite dish is Bibimbap, but if you are the winner, take a friend and try a few items from their Korean–inspired menu that delivers classic cultural flavors and exciting new combinations.  Click here to enter to win the $50 gift card.

Now, on to the latest market data...

A variety of items to note above, given the mix of decreases (red %) and increases (green %) in the far right column.

[1]  We saw 13% fewer home sales this February compared to last February... though keep in mind that this is closings, so was mostly a result of fewer contracts this past January and December.

[2]  When looking at the past three months (Dec 2024 – Feb 2025) we still see a 5% decline in home sales compared to how many homes sold in the same timeframe last year.

[3]  When we stretch the time horizon out a bit further, looking at the past six months (Sep 2024 – Feb 2025) we do see a 10% increase in home sales compared to the same timeframe last year.

[4]  The longest timeframe of all –– the past 12 months compared to the 12 months prior to that –– shows an 8% increase in the number of homes that are selling.

So, overall, we're seeing more homes selling over the past year as compared to the prior year –– but that trend has not held true over the past three months.  You'll see that phenomenon visually a bit later in this report.  Keep on reading... or scrolling.

Now, about those sales prices...

Now, about those prices.  As the headline referenced... sales prices are higher... ever higher.  Over the past 12 months the median sales price was $346,680... which is 4% higher than it was in the 12 months prior to that.  

You may recall that there were recently multiple years of 10% per year increases in the median sales price.  We are not seeing those sorts of changes in the overall market–wide median sales price any longer... though keep reading to see where we are seeing higher and lower increases in subsets of our local market.

And how about "days on market" –– how quickly homes are selling...

Interestingly, homes are selling (going under contract) quite a bit more quickly this year than last.  Over the winter months (Dec – Feb) we saw homes going under contract in a median of seven days... down 36% from the median of 11 days last year.  Median days on market has decreased across the board in the chart above, regardless of the time horizon

Just a very loose theory, but the higher mortgage interest rates were newer a year ago than they are now... and we did see some slowing of buyer decisions in the first year or two of "higher" mortgage interest rates.  More on that later.

Now, breaking it down into a few smaller sectors of our local housing market, first detached (single family) homes...

Two things to note relative to detached home sales...

[1]  While we have seen a market–wide 8% increase in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... we have only seen a 4% increase in detached home sales.  Yes, more detached homes have sold in the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months... but this segment of the market has not picked back up as much as the overall market.  An important note here... the smaller increase in detached homes is almost certainly a result of fewer sellers selling, not fewer buyers buying.

[2]  Perhaps because there are fewer sellers selling, and possibly just as many buyers who want to buy, we have seen a larger (10%) increase in the median sales price of detached homes over the past 12 months as compared to the 4% increase in the overall market.

And how about the detached home's counterpart... the attached home?

What are attached homes, anyhow?  They are mainly townhouses... but they also include duplexes and condos.  Above you'll note that...

[1]  We have seen a significant (18%) increase in the number of townhomes selling over the past 12 months... compared to only an 8% increase in overall home sales.  So, a greater portion of the increase in local home sales is attached homes... not detached homes.  Again, this is likely because more attached homes are available for purchase –– spoiler alert, because of newly constructed townhomes.

[2]  Perhaps because there are more attached homes available for buyers to buy... we have seen a smaller increase in their median sales price over the past 12 months... with only a 2% increase, compared to the market–wide 4% increase in median sales price.

Since I started to mention new home sales, let's see what's happening there...

These market segment metrics continue to tell a very interesting story...

[1]  We have seen a huge (25%) increase in new home sales over the past 12 months.  This is well above the market–wide 8% increase in home sales.

[2]  The median sales price has actually edged down a smidge (1%) over the past 12 months, though this could be a result of product mix... the price (based on size) of new homes being built and sold.

Given these trends in new home sales, the following likely won't be surprising...

[1]  Existing home sales are up... 3%... but that is well below the 8% increase in home sales.  So... most of the increase in home sales over the past 12 months has been a result of new home sales.

[2]  The median sales price of those existing homes selling has increased 9% over the past 12 months... well above the market–wide increase of 4%. 

 

Now... on to some graphs that continue to explain current market dynamics and add a bit more context...

The red line above shows home sales in January and February of 2025... slow as can be!  We saw fewer home sales this Jan+Feb (red line) than we saw last Jan+Feb (blue line) and also less than the average of the past four years.

  

Some would point out that it has been a snowier start to the year... which might have delayed some sellers in listing their homes for sale.  Well, as I pointed out, it's going to be 60 degrees today and 70 degrees tomorrow... so the weather has never been better (thus far in 2025) for listing your home for sale!  ;–)

Here's a visual of the overall trends in how many houses are selling and the prices at which they are selling...

I have drawn the main points on there for you... but at the top you'll note that prices are still rising but doing so more gradually this year than last... and at the bottom you can see that recent slowing in the number of homes that are selling.

Pausing for a moment on that point... clearly the 1,363 home sales over the past 12 months is more than the 1,262 home sales over the 12 months prior to that... but the pace of annual sales has started to slow over the past three months.  Stay tuned to see what this Spring will bring.

Next... did I mention new homes are a significant part of the market right now?

Interestingly... of all the home sales thus far in 2025... 30% of them were new home sales!  So... while plenty of existing homeowners are not selling their homes... that inventory shortage is being at least somewhat offset by new homes being built.  Can you imagine the state of the market if new homes weren't being built? 

  

Now, the predictive graph... what does recent contract activity tell us about the next few months of home sales...

Well... we might see another months of slow sales activity (in March) because contract activity was pretty slow in February!?!  Yes, this was mostly expected... contract activity usually drops between January and February... but this February was *quite* slow! 

  

Last February we saw 94 homes go under contract... this February... ouch... only 76.  But... before we get too concerned about such low levels of contract activity... let's see how many homes buyers had to choose from this year and last...

Perhaps you're seeing some of the challenge here... fewer buyers (and sellers) contracted to buy (and sell) in February... but it is at least partially because there are far fewer sellers selling. 

At the end of January there were 42 fewer sellers this year than last January.  Thus, it's probably not too surprising that fewer contracts came together in February.

And now, at the end of February (ish) there are 29 fewer sellers this year than last February.  Thus, if we again see fewer home sales in March, don't be too surprised.

Finally, let's check in on mortgage interest rates...

It has been an interesting past year for mortgage interest rates... which are technically now a bit lower than they were a year ago.  Over the course of the past year the 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has been as high as 7.17% and as low as 6.08%.  If I had to make a guess about the next few months, I suspect we'll be mid 6% range... which we'll call 6.25% to 6.75%.  If rates trend down towards the bottom of that range, that will at least partially spur on further buyer interest... but there may or may not be sellers ready to sell those interested buyers their homes.

So as we wrap things up, what can we conclude about what is going on in our local housing market?

[1]  We have seen 8% more home sales over the past 12 months compared to the prior 12 months.

[2]  But... the number of homes that selling has trended down over the past few months.

[3]  The median sales price has increased 4% over the past 12 months.

[4]  But... the median sales price of detached homes has increased 10% and the median sales price of existing homes has increased 9%.

[5]  Home sales and contract activity were slower this January and February than last year.

[6]  But... this is likely a result of inventory levels being lower this year than last.

So, looking ahead...

If you plan to sell your home this year... let's do it now... there are lots of buyers ready to consider your home!

If you plan to buy this year... let's hope the right seller or sellers are ready to sell when you are ready to buy.  Get pre–approved with a great local lender and be ready to go look at homes quickly when they hit the market.

If you own your home and you don't plan to sell... I get it... enjoy your home, and your neighborhood... and your likely low mortgage interest rate... and your likely increasing home value... and be thankful you were able to buy a home and aren't in the camp of would–be buyers who haven't been able to find something to buy.

If found this market to be interesting or helpful – great!  If you have more questions that I didn't answer, perhaps about your house or your situation, feel free to reach out anytime.  I'm here to help. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email here.

 

If you are selling a home that needs a kitchen remodel, it's fine to NOT remodel the kitchen, but your pricing of the home should account for knowing that most buyers would want to remodel the kitchen.

If you are selling a home that needs a new roof, it's fine to NOT replace the roof, but your pricing of the home should account for knowing that most buyers would want to replace the roof.

If you are selling a home that needs a fresh coat of paint everywhere inside, it's fine to NOT paint it yourself, but your pricing of the home should account for knowing that most buyers would want to paint the interior of the home.

In summary.. if your house needs some improvements or renovations... and most buyers would want to make those changes... your pricing should reflect that fact, not ignore that fact.

We will, of course, have to convert that concept and logic into numbers... but recognizing that you need to account for improvements that most buyers would want to make is the first step towards pricing your home appropriately for the market.

 

Many home buyers have to sell a home before they can buy the next one.

If you aren't a first time buyer –– and if you haven't already sold your current home –– you are likely in this position as well, needing to sell before you can buy.

So... if this describes you, when should you start looking at homes you might buy?

A prospective home buyer who has to sell before buying will pass through three stages...

As you might imagine, it will likely be challenging to convince a seller to accept your offer when you're in the first stage above, with your home not yet under contract.

It will potentially be a bit easier (depending on competing buyer interest) to convince a seller to accept your offer when you're in the second stage above, with your home under contract, but not yet to closing.

Once you are in the third stage described above, you are certainly good to go –– the home purchase is no longer intertwined with the home sale.

Should you wait until you are in Stage 3? 

Should you at least wait until you are in Stage 2?

I vote "no" and "no" –– as I think it is fine to start looking at homes even when you are in Stage 1.

Certainly, you won't be in a position to make a competitive offer yet –– but by looking at homes for sale while you are in Stage 1 (your house to sell is not yet under contract) you'll do a few things...

1.  Gain a better sense of what you are looking for in a home you will purchase.

2.  Start to better understand current market dynamics and how different houses and prices relate based on size, location, condition and features.

So... if you need to sell your home before buying a new one... it is likely not too early to go ahead and start looking at those homes you might purchase.

What are real estate investors buying in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?

1.  Some investors buy college student housing, which often has higher rental rates compared to purchase prices – though there can be greater risk of property damage or vacancies along with the higher reward of higher cash flow.

2.  Some investors buy single family homes, which generally offer the lowest rental income per dollar spent on the purchase price, but which might also offer the best long term gains in increased market value.

3.  Some investors buy individual townhomes and duplexes, which are often amidst neighborhoods with plenty of owner occupants as well as other investors, and can be a nice balanced approach that provides reasonable cash flow as well as reasonable appreciation over time.

4.  Finally, some investors buy multifamily properties – duplexes (both sides), triplexes, quads, and even larger buildings.  These offer the ability to purchase multiple properties (units, roofs) at a time which sometimes can provide a better return on investment.

So, what are investors actually paying for multifamily properties in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County?  Typically the best way to look at this is by comparing the purchase price to the rental income being generated by the multifamily property. 

It would be even better to calculate a "cap rate" for each sold property, but we don't always have all of the expense data available in order to calculate the net operating income (NOI) which is used in calculating a cap rate.

So, here's a rudimentary look at what multifamily investor buyers paid for multifamily properties in and near Harrisonburg, Virginia over the past year –– for properties where rental income data was available...

The "GRM" column is evaluating the Gross Rent Multiple... comparing the sales price to the income of the property.

As you can see above, multiple properties sold at a multiple of 12 (or higher) of their gross rental income. 

For anyone who has considered a rental property purchase lately, one's ability to purchase at current market prices is often strongly correlated to how much cash you have available to put into the purchase.  If you are paying cash for the property, then your cash flow will be just fine, as you don't have a loan payment.  If you are financing 75% to 80% of a purchase price, you will likely have a more difficult time covering the loan payments with your rental income.

Feel free to touch base with me if you would like to learn more about investment property purchases –– or, on the other end of things, if you are an investor looking to sell some of your holdings, this could be an ideal time to do so given current market dynamics.

 

It's a reasonable question –– in a market where homes are often going under contract very quickly, one might assume that all homes are selling for well over asking price!

In fact, over the past six months only 7% of homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County sold 5% (or more) over their asking price.

But, let's break down the data a bit further...

Interesting.. maybe different than you (or I) might have assumed before getting into the data?

Now, let's get into the actual dollar by dollar difference between sales price and list prices... keeping in mind that these differences in thousands of dollars would mean more or less of a price negotiation based on the list price of the home...

• 7% of homes sold for at least $20K over asking price.
   
• 13% of homes sold for $5K to $20K over their asking price.
   
• 54% of homes sold within $5K of their asking price.
   
• 18% of homes sold for $5K to $20K under their asking price.
   
• 9% of homes sold for at least $20K over their asking price.

So...

Construction is moving right along at Congers Creek, an upscale townhome community located off Boyers Road, just minutes from Sentara RMH Medical Center, in the Cub Run Elementary school district. 

Phase 1 included 26 townhomes, all of which are complete and sold.

Phase 2 included 133 townhomes, all of which are complete and sold.

Phase 3 includes 45 townhomes... so far, 33 of them are under contract, and 12 remain to come on the market soon.

Lots 1 through 12 –– near the intersection of Derby Drive and Appaloosa Court are the remaining lots in Phase 3.

Check out available homes, the standard features, upgrade options, the model home, or call/text me at 540–578–0102 to set up a time to tour the model home.

 

We'll see what March brings, but thus far, inventory levels are stay rather low in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  With just 136 homes on the market right now, this is the lowest inventory levels we have seen in over a year and a half.

Of note –– this "inventory level" metric measures how many homes are on the market "for sale" that are not under contract.  Thus, if 100 homes come on the market tomorrow and they all go under contract immediately, there will still only be 136 homes for sale.

Low inventory levels mean sellers don't have much competition (from other sellers) and buyers don't have much to choose from at any given point in time.

Looking back... inventory levels rose (131 to 230) between June 2023 and October 2023 as mortgage interest rates rose from 6.71% to 7.79%... but inventory levels have been mostly drifting back downward since that time.

Stay tuned to see how inventory levels change as we head into the spring real estate market.

 

Do you live in a large(r) home where you raised a family but now all of your kids are grown and gone?  Perhaps you now have more space than you need and more space than you want to continue to maintain?

Many homeowners eventually find themselves needing to downsize... but sometimes delay taking practical steps towards that goal because they're not quite ready yet, or they aren't sure if they should downsize.

Well, if downsizing is in your near(ish) future here are three things you can be (should be?) doing now to prepare...

Do you have the resources to buy your next home before selling your current home?  

Will you have to sell your current home before buying your next home?  

Can you tap into the equity in your current home to help make the financial parts of the transition move more smoothly?

These are all questions you can explore and research now, even if you won't be ready to downsize for a few more years.

Where will you live next? 

Are you downsizing to a smaller home or to a retirement community?

Consider driving through neighborhoods where you might want to buy a smaller home –– or we can go view homes for sale when they are listed in those neighborhoods.

If you might move to a retirement community start researching your options and consider joining their interest list.

If you live in a large(r) house – and if you have for quite a few years – you have likely accumulated some "stuff" over the years.  Perhaps it is scattered throughout your home, or perhaps it is a storage area or areas.  It takes time to work through those belongings and decide what to keep, what to offer to a family member, what to donate and what to discard.  Start the process now as this can take a while.

You can certainly wait until you are actually ready to downsize to start working on these three areas outlined above –– but if you start focusing on them now, taking your time to work through them you will likely find your eventual downsizing process to be a lot more enjoyable and less stressful.

If I can assist you with thinking through or working through any or all of these areas, just let me know!

 

As some of you may have noticed, there seems to be another Realtor in town named Rogers... yes, that would be my son, Luke.  :–)

Luke is off to a fast start, learning a lot about the local real estate market, the home buying and selling process, and already assisting multiple buyers with their home purchases.

You may have already encountered Luke online, on Instagram...

Luke has also put together an informative series of videos about the market and the buying and selling process.  You might even find a video featuring me!?!

And finally, Luke is publishing a weekly email newsletter that is bound to be both informative and entertaining.  You can subscribe here.

Please Note: I'm looking forward to working with Luke for many years to come – he hasn't pushed me into an early retirement – yet.  ;–)

Feel free to connect with Luke or reach out to him to say hello...

Welcome Luke!

 

There are LOTS of ways to spend your time (and energy, and money) preparing your house to sell.  But how do you know if you are focusing on the right things to maximize your sales price and minimize your time on the market?

I suggest that we walk through and around your house together to focus on two areas...

It's easy to get distracted by making small improvements that a buyer won't notice or won't care about.

Should you scrub down your baseboard moulding to make them shine?  Maybe –– but there are probably plenty of other items that a buyer will notice first and will care about more.

Should you spend time organizing everything on the shelves in your garage?  Maybe –– but only if everything inside your home is already organized.

Should you pull weeds from the flower bed at the very back corner of your lot?  Maybe –– but only if you already have a plan for the landscaping immediately surrounding your house.

Let's walk around and through your house together and build a list of where you should focus your time and energy in preparation for getting your house on the market.  We'll be talking about what a buyer will notice as well as what a buyer will care about.

We will then likely want to prioritize the tasks on the list depending on your timeframe for wanting to have your house on the market.  If you have a limited window of time to make final improvements to your home, let's make sure you are addressing the most important or the most impactful improvements on that list.

If you plan to sell your home this spring or summer, we should plan to walk around and through your house together twice... once now or soon... and once a few weeks before you are ready to list your home as a final check on any final final improvements.

You have finally made it to the finish line –– wait, no –– the starting line.  You are ready to get your house on the market for sale.  

Indeed, it can sometimes take a while to get your house prepared to go on the market.  You might have spent so much time, energy –– and perhaps money –– preparing your house for sale that you decide you prefer that a buyer for your home NOT inspect your house as a part of the home purchase process.  After all, you've heard that plenty of homes are purchased these days without a home inspection.

In assisting you to market and sell your home, I too will be delighted if the buyer does not choose to conduct a home inspection, but that decision buy a buyer –– to not conduct a home inspection –– largely depends on three factors...

If your home is very well prepared for the market a buyer may assume you have taken excellent care of your home over time and will be more comfortable considering an offer without an inspection contingency.

If your home is not as well prepared and plenty of deferred maintenance items are obvious when walking through and around your home, a buyer is likely to be more interested in including an inspection contingency.

Will you price your home very reasonably, overly optimistically or somewhere in between?  

If a buyer thinks they are paying a very reasonable price for your home, that might cause them to be comfortable purchasing without a home inspection. 

If a buyer thinks they are paying too much for your house, they are much more likely to want a home inspection, to make sure the house does not have any major issues.

This factor is not within your control, other than based on how you prepare your home, how you price your home and how you market it.

If you have one buyer making an offer on your home, they are relatively likely to want to conduct a home inspection.

If you have multiple buyers making competing offers on your home, there is a better chance that at least one buyer will be comfortable buying without a home inspection.  In fact, as the number of offers increases, so does the likelihood that you will have an offer without a home inspection.

So... if you prefer that a buyer not do a home inspection as a part of the purchase process...

1.  Prepare your home well so that buyers won't have unfounded concerns.

2.  Price your home reasonably based on recent sold similar properties.

3.  I will market your home thoroughly, professionally and rapidly to increase the likelihood that we have multiple offers to increase the possibility that at least one buyer will be comfortable without a home inspection.

Why did THAT new listing have so many offers within just a few days?

Sometimes, it's all about location.

Not in the "location, location, location" sense of it being located in a universally amazingly appealing location... but for unexpected and unique reasons...

1.  My sister lives next door.

2.  I could walk to my office.

3.  The backyard neighbor is my friend from college.

Sometimes a house will have an unexpectedly high positive response from buyers... related to location... but not for predictable reasons. 

As a seller, just roll with it. :–)

As a buyer, know that it could happen, and that you might have more competition than you anticipated.

As a neighbor, capitalize on it if you're planning to sell anytime soon.  :–)

 

I'll go with a strong maybe.

First off, plenty of home sellers wait until March or April to list their homes –– so when we don't see many homes listed for sale in February, that's not completely unusual.

But... the multiple 6–inch–or–more snows can certainly have a dampening ;–) effect on homeowners efforts towards getting their homes on the market.

If you're getting ready to get your house on the market... and then it snows... you will probably wait until the snow melts to shoot the exterior photos if you aren't in a major time crunch to sell.

If it then snows AGAIN, maybe you already have the photos, but you're worried about whether buyers will be ready to get out and about to come see your house.

We don't usually have multiple 6–inch–or–more snows in a single winter in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  I don't think we have had a 6–inch–or–more snow in the last three or four years.  I'll hope a reader will correct me if I am forgetting one.

So... again... unless a homeowner is in a rush to get their house on the market, the multiple snows we have seen this year have likely pushed back some would be home sellers' plans to get their houses on the market.

Are we through with the snow now?  Or will we have another one or two yet this winter!?!

 

Most homes sell these days, and most homes sell quickly.  But not all homes.

Thus, there are three categories of homes we need to consider when determining an appropriate asking price for your home...

This is the most clear cut and often the place we start.  We will examine homes similar to your house that have sold in the past six to twelve months to get a sense of what other buyers have paid for other homes that are similar to your home.  While this is where we will start, it shouldn't be where we stop.  We need to consider the other two categories of homes.

This includes homes that are on the market but not yet under contract... as well as those that are on the market and under contract.  We'll need to consider how long these homes have been on the market, whether they have had price reductions, and whether they are under contract yet.  We won't know what they will really sell for until they actually sell.

This is an oft overlooked portion of a market analysis.  What homes came on the market... did not sell... and came back off of the market.  Was there something particular about the house that did sell that will not impact the sale of your home?  What was the market response to that other homes when it was listed for sale.  We can't always fill in all of the answers here, but we should at least pause to consider how homes that did not sell impact the potential pricing of your home.

It is important to take a wide view of sold homes, pending listings, active listings and withdrawn listings when pricing your home for sale!

 

In a relatively fast moving market with plenty of homes going under contract after receiving multiple offers, it's possible to forget that some houses don't immediately go under contract.

If a house doesn't go under contract in the first week, or the first few weeks, or the first month...

1.  Buyers might want to or need to try to negotiate on price.

2.  Sellers might want to stay relatively firm on price.

Buyers –– That's fine if you want to negotiate on price, though keep in mind that the house might actually be priced reasonably even if it has not yet gone under contract.

Sellers –– That's fine if you want to stay relatively firm on price, though keep in mind that the buyer who makes an offer might only be willing or able to go up so much on price.

And thus, sometimes, buyers and sellers reach an impasse.

A buyer might love a house... but might not be able or willing to come up to a price that will work for a seller.

A seller might love to sell their house... but might not be able or willing to come down to a price that will work for a buyer.

Even if a fast moving market with homes selling at record high prices, not all offers turn into contracts.

 

The City of Harrisonburg Planning Commission will consider a rezoning request at their February 18, 2025 meeting to allow for 70 single family homes to be built on approximately 10 acres on Smithland Road.

Here's a better view of the proposed site plan...

There isn't much new construction in the City of Harrisonburg, so these homes could be a welcome addition to the housing stock in the City –– though the houses are proposed to be built on rather small lots.

City staff is not recommending that this rezoning be approved, as noted in their report to Planning Commission...

"While the planned project’s housing types and density are both in conformance with the Comprehensive Plan and will accommodate interparcel connectivity, there remain significant concerns with the overall public street network and layout of the site. Staff recognizes that single–family detached dwellings on small lots is a desirable type of housing that is needed in the City, however we must ensure that neighborhoods are planned and designed accordingly for the long–term success of this neighborhood and future residential developments that would be constructed adjacent to the site. At this time staff cannot support the rezoning request and recommends denial."

View more details such as the Planning Commission Memorandum, Site Maps, Application and Supporting Documents and Public Comments here.

 

When we are preparing to get your house on the market for sale we will looking together at a market analysis of your home to determine a pricing strategy.

I will start by looking for the most similar homes that have sold in the recent past (usually 6 to 12 months) to give us guidance on what price a buyer might pay for your home.

Oftentimes, these similar homes (comparable sales) will all fall neatly in line...

House #1 – very similar, sold for $425K

House #2 – a bit newer and a bit larger, sold for $450K

House #3 – a bit older and a bit smaller, sold for $400K

As you might guess, these three comparable sales would suggest that your home will sell for $450K.

But... sometimes the comparable sales don't provide as clear of guidance...

House #1 – very similar, sold for $425K

House #2 – very similar, sold for $415K

House #3 – very similar, sold for $400K

...and...

House #3 – smaller, sold for $475K

House #4 – smaller, sold for $485K

House #5 – smaller, sold for $505K

When we start to see a greater degree of variance in the prices for which comparable homes sold, and when they don't all point to the same general price point for your house, pricing your home can be come a bit more challenging.

Do we pick the most optimistic (highest) comparable sales to price your home?

Do we pick the most conservative (lowest) comparable sales to price your home?

When this happens, we will need to look through the data together in detail to determine which comparable sales we believe are the most comparable, and thus the most applicable in estimating the value of your home in the current market.

It's great when we have multiple data points all converging on a single value for your home –– but it is not always that simple or clear cut.

 

Sometimes you'll absolutely LOVE a new listing... but not the asking price.

You might believe it's a fair price for the house... it's just more than you would want to pay.

Or... you might think the price is too high for the house.

Regardless, you don't want to pay the list price for the house.

Maybe you'd pay $20K or $30K less than the list price... but you wouldn't pay the list price.

In such a situation, most buyers conclude that while they might or might not make an offer... they won't be disappointed if a buyer comes along that is willing to pay the list price for the house.

A helpful perspective to consider as a buyer is whether you would be disappointed if someone else other than you gets to buy the house. 

 

Happy SNOWY Wednesday, friends!

After a solid eight inches about two weeks ago, we had another six inches yesterday!  Some even say we might have another snow next week!?!  This has been a particularly snowy winter!  Here's a snowy view on the east side of town earlier this morning...

Beyond the snow, though, we're more than a month (almost a month and a half) into 2025 and I'm taking a look back at the first month of real estate data to see what trends we're seeing thus far this year.

Now then, on to some tasty morsels of data from our local real estate market...

First up, the latest trends through the end of January 2025...

While not highlighted above, you might note that we saw a 15% drop in January sales this year (80) compared to last (94) –– though January sales exceeded 2023 levels (76).  More on January sales later.

When we look back at the past three months (November through January) we see a 22% increase in the number of home sales taking place as compared to the same timeframe a year ago.  This is accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price.

If we look at a longer timeframe (12 months) we will find only a 9% increase in the number of homes selling –– but a 5% increase in the median sales price.

Combine these two trends and it would seem that we might be seeing an acceleration in the number of homes that are selling–– but a slowing in the rate at which prices are increasing.

Jumping for a moment to detached homes only...

When we look at detached homes only (excluding townhomes, duplexes and condos) we find only a 15% increase in sales over the past three months (compared to a year ago) whereas there was a 22% increase in overall sales.

Thus, it shouldn't surprise you to see the following in the attached market...

In contrast to the 15% increase in detached home sales between November and January, here we see a 40% increase in attached home sales!  That's a significant jump!

There has also been a 22% increase in attached home sales when looking at the past 12 months (compared to the 12 months before that) compared to only a 4% increase in detached home sales.

So... we're seeing more of an increase in attached home sales this days as compared to detached home sales... but that could be a result of so many attached new homes being built.

Here's a look at new home sales...

Over the past 12 months we have seen 389 new home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County –– which marks a 29% increase from last year.

Whereas in the existing home market (everything except new homes) we're seeing...

In contrast to that 29% increase in new home sales, we're only seeing a 3% increase in existing home sales.

Why could this be?  Well... new home builders are happy to keep on building new homes, but it's not too surprising that homeowners (would be sellers of existing homes) are only so excited to sell, because...

1.  Many such homeowners have low interest rates on their current mortgages... which would be replaced with higher rates on a new mortgage.

2.  Despite likely have plenty of equity in their existing home... they would have to spend even more on a replacement home.

As I just someone I was chatting with... if you like the home you own and if it's working well for you... don't sell!  :–)

Peeking in on the two main geographic areas I cover...

The City of Harrisonburg has seen (gasp) a 3% decline in home sales over the past year.  It's actually even more stark when looking back two years where you would see a cumulative 33% decline in home sales.  

One of the reasons why home sales are decreasing (happening less frequently) in the City of Harrisonburg is because there aren't many new homes being built in the City.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

In contrast to the 3% decline in home sales in the City of Harrisonburg... there has been a 14% increase in home sales in Rockingham County.  We could note, though, that the 1,059 home sales in Rockingham County over the past 12 months is actually a bit (6%) lower than two years ago.

Now, on to some graphs, starting by showing January 2025 in context...

Indeed, the 80 home sales seen seen in January 2025 was a good bit lower than the 94 home sales seen last January... as well as lower than the average (95) of January sales over the past four years.

Good news, though, the 80 home sales in January is likely to be the lowest month of home sales for all of 2025! 

Looking at a slightly broader context for our overall market...

Home sales increased in 2024 compared to 2023... and that increase seems likely to continue in 2025. 

After four years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) of a 10% or greater annual increase in the median sales price... we only saw a 5% increase in the median sales price in 2024.  At first glance, the graph above would seem to indicate that prices are starting to decline... but it's too early for that decrease ($345K to $341K) to mean much as we only have 80 sales prices in that median thus far in 2025.

Now, I hesitated to say that January home sales were slower than expected because of snow –– since January sales are based on December contracts –– and the snow has taken place in January.

But we can potentially blame the snow for this following graph...

Only 97 home buyers and sellers signed contracts in January 2025... compared to 108 last year... and compared to a four year average of 117 for the month of January.

Why did only 97 buyers and sellers sign contracts in January?  Perhaps because everyone was too busy shoveling snow?  But seriously... the winter weather has delayed plans for some sellers to list their homes for sale... which delays a buyer's potential contract to buy said home.  TBD if further winter weather will continue to impact the winter real estate market.  Oh, right, it is winter – I suppose the snow is reasonable.  :–)

Next up, pending sales, the number of homes that are under contract waiting to go to closing...

We are seeing a normal–ish amount of homes currently under contract for this time of year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The 243 homes currently under contract is certainly lower than the 270 homes under contract a year ago, but I believe this lower number is a result of fewer homes being on the market for buyers to buy.

To reinforce that theory, take a look at inventory levels now versus a year ago...

 A year ago there were 182 homes on the market for sale... today... only 140 homes.  This is a significant year over year decline.  We might see a slight uptick in homes for sale as we get towards the spring market, but it is also quite possible that buyers will continue to contract to purchase those new listings as soon as they are listed for sale.

Finally, as referenced earlier, current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage interest rate on any homeowner's current mortgage might be a part of why some sellers are not selling...

Despite mortgage interest rates (between 6.5% and 7%) seeming high compared to many homeowner's mortgage interest rate on their current mortgage –– these 6.5% to 7% rates seem to be the new normal range that we may be experiencing for the indefinite future.  Looking back over the past two years, while we saw a few months above or below that range, mortgage interest rates mostly remained in that range.

So... given all of that data on our local real estate market and the current mortgage interest rate environment, what should you keep in mind as we continue through 2025?

If you will be selling your home, you are likely to continue to see solid buyer demand depending on your price range, property type and location.  It will be important to price your home appropriately as most buyers' budgets will be limited by 6.5% to 7% mortgage interest rates.  Listing your home for sale sooner than later might give you the opportunity to have less competition from other sellers, but waiting until spring is a reasonable strategy as well if that timeline better fits your overall plans.

If you will be buying a home, go ahead and get preapproved with your favorite lender (ask if you need a recommendation) so that you are ready to make an offer when we find the right house for you.  It's possible you will be directly competing with other buyers in a multiple offer scenario depending on where you want to buy, what you want to buy and your budget.  Don't be discouraged by currently low inventory levels – there will be plenty of new listings hitting the market as we move into spring.

If you found the information in this market report to be helpful, but you have a few more questions about your segment of the local market, or about your house, or about the buying process or selling process, feel free to reach out anytime.  I'm here to help. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540–578–0102 or by email here.Until then, go make yourself a cup of hot cocoa!  :–)