That's an interesting stat... only 33 homes (single family homes, duplexes, townhomes, apartments) where built in Harrisonburg in 2024.

That is based on the number of times the City issued a Certificate of Occupancy, and you can see the numbers going back to 2021 in the chart above.

This data is from a recent Residential Use–Approved Development Update provided by City staff to City Council.

For your enjoyment, download the memo and slide deck.

Some other snippets of interest...

The City estimates that 60% of housing units are rented and 40% are owned.

 

The City estimates that 40% of housing units are single family detached homes, 24% are attached and 15% are multi–family dwellings.

The City estimates that over 4,000 housing units are in "the pipeline" of being potentially developed.

4,000 is so much larger than 33

How could there be over 4,000 potential units with only 33 being completed last year?  As the City memo notes... "Use approval is not a guarantee of development."

How many homes will we see built (completed) in the City in 2025!?

 

Much to the dismay of many home buyers, a seller is typically going to respond to offers whenever they want to respond to offers.

This is largely a market driven phenomenon – it's a seller's market.  If there were more sellers than buyers, and thus a buyer's market, many sellers would likely feel more obligated to try to abide by a buyer's wishes.

Let's consider a few scenarios we might encounter in the current market...

Buyer:  I'm going to make my offer today, with a response deadline of tomorrow at 10:00 AM.  That will surely offer cause the seller to respond by that time.

Seller:  Three other agents indicate they will be sending offers tomorrow morning at some point – and this buyer with the 10AM deadline will likely still want the house tomorrow afternoon – so I'll respond to offers when I want to respond to offers.

...or...

Buyer:  They only have two offers as of this evening, and they told us they would respond by tomorrow morning, so I have a 50/50 shot at getting this house!

Seller:  I'll wait another day to respond to offers –– oh, what's that –– four more offers?  Fantastic!

...or...

Buyer:  The seller indicates they will respond to offers tomorrow at 12:00 PM so I'll wait and get my offer to them tomorrow morning.

Seller:  I have four amazing offers this evening – I'll go ahead and move forward with one of these offers.

So... yeah... it can get rough out there.

Sellers will (in the current market) likely respond to offers whenever they want to do so... and it might change to be earlier or later.

So, buyers, in most circumstances you will want to go ahead and make an offer (your strongest offer) just as soon as you are ready to do so –– and then patiently wait for a response.

 

I have met with quite a few homeowners over the years who end up making some predictable home improvements just prior to selling their home:

All of these are lovely improvements to make... but all of these homeowners would have enjoyed their home even more if they had made the updates or improvements five years before they sold their home... rather than five weeks before they sold their home.

So, while I know your renovation or remodel budget likely isn't infinite... if there are some changes or improvements you would likely want to make before you sell your home... and you don't plan to sell your home for at least five years... make the improvements now!

You will not only have a great home five years from now... that will be appealing to buyers... but you'll also enjoy the improved home yourself for the next five years!

If you need recommendations for professionals to help you with these projects, just let me know!

 

Short answer... probably not.

But, let's get into the slightly longer answer...

You are excited to buy a new home BUT you need to sell one in order to buy.

No problem, you've heard that you can just include a home sale contingency in your offer to buy your new house, and all will be well.

Or will it...

Most sellers in the current market (in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area) are not likely to accept your offer with a home sale contingency.

But why!?

Well... it's basically just trading needing to sell one house... for needing to sell another.

If the owners of the home you would like to purchase have finally reached the finish line of getting their home on the market for sale... they are likely now primed to get it sold, and get to closing.

A buyer without a home sale contingency offers a concrete plan for accomplishing the seller's goal... I will buy your house.

If you make an offer with a home sale contingency, your plan for accomplishing the seller's goal is a bit more complex... I will buy your house once someone buys my house.

In some ways, your plan (I'll buy after I sell) keeps the seller in the same exact spot they already were –– needing a house to sell.

But in some ways, your plan puts them in a worse spot... they don't need their house to sell (over which they have control of the price, condition and marketing)... they need your house to sell, and they do not have control over the price, condition and marketing.

So... if you are excited to buy a home, but you need to sell a home first, we'll need to discuss some alternative strategies for doing so, as we likely won't want to depend on an offer with a home sale contingency getting you to the finish line.

 

Perhaps you have been living in a large, two–story home for the past 20 years, and perhaps you are ready to downsize to a one level living home.

Or... perhaps you have a parent who is ready to move to a one level home.

If so, below is a summary of some of the communities where you might consider buying your next home in and close to Harrisonburg... and the types of properties you might buy in those communities.

I'm sure I'm forgetting a few, so drop me a line here to let me know.

Looking at townhouses as one example of local investment properties, let's see how their property values have changed over the past five years.  

Here's the median sales price of attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

In 2020 = $193,000

In 2025 = $320,000

So, property values have increased (+66%) over the past five years.  And... mortgage interest rates have also increase significantly...

In 2020 = 3.5% to 4%

In 2025 = 6% to 7%

Given these two variables, let's look a rough potential cash flow situation in each year...

In 2020...

Property Value = $193,000

Interest Rate = 4%

Monthly Mortgage Payment = $925 (75% LTV, includes HOA fee)

Monthly Rental Income = $1,200

Cash Flow = + $275 / month

In 2025...

Property Value = $275,000 (rounded down a bit from the median)

Interest Rate = 7%

Monthly Mortgage Payment = $1,700 (75% LTV, includes HOA fee)

Monthly Rental Income = $1,650

Cash Flow = – $50 / month

So, what does all of this mean for investor buyers or investor sellers?

Would–be buyers of investment properties often have difficulty making the cash flow make sense even if they're only financing 75% of the purchase price.  

Even though rental rates have increased significantly over the past five years, property values have increased even more rapidly, and mortgage interest rates make it difficult to achieve positive cash flow.

But...

Would–be sellers of investment properties care considerably less about the cash flow of the properties they are selling.  They are generally delighted by the significantly higher property values they obtain when selling their property.

Of note, many of these investment properties are being purchased by owner occupants.  If an investor buyer can't make the numbers work... there are plenty of people who are looking to buy their first home who are happy to purchase these investment properties that are being sold.

So... if you are looking to buy an investment property... be realistic about the likely cash flow dynamics... and if you are considering selling an investment property... you'll likely be thrilled by the price a buyer will currently pay for your property.

 

You excitedly make an offer on a new listing of interest and you think you've made a reasonably strong offer.

List Price = $300,000

Your Offer:

Let's say our market analysis shows your house is worth $350K... and you'd be happy to sell your house for $350K... but you'd be THRILLED to sell your house for $360K.

What is your best path towards actually selling your house for $360,000?

The answer is almost always C... both on multiple choice tests (don't they say that?) and in my theoretical question above.

Here's how things might play out at each list price...

It might seem like pricing your home at $365K – slightly above where you'd be thrilled to end up ($360K) is the best way to get to $360K... but... it might very well backfire.  

Plenty of buyers will potentially walk through and conclude that your home is worth $350K (like our market analysis indicated) and then decide not to make an offer since you priced your home at $365K.

After all... if your home is priced at $365K and they think it's worth $350K... they might feel the need to make an offer of $340K (or so) to try to talk you down to $350K.  And what buyer would make an offer of $340K on a house listed for $365K in the first few days it is on the market?

This strategy could work... a smidge below your really thrilling goal of a sales price of $360,000.  But... the same logic above applies here too... a buyer who thinks your house is worth $350K might feel like they need to make an unrealistically low offer to try to get you down to $350K... and thus might not make an offer at all.

In theory, every buyer who likes your house, who thinks it is priced appropriately and reasonably at $349,900 will want to make an offer.

Furthermore, some of those buyers may very well decide they would be willing to pay a bit ($5K to $10K?) above your asking price if there are multiple offers.

Keep in mind... this pricing strategy doesn't always work for every property in every price point in every location... but pricing your home reasonably is often your best strategy for selling your house for more than that list price.

 

You just went to see a FANTASTIC new listing –– and you are EXCITED to make an offer.  But... it's the first offer you will be making... so what do you do next... and what decisions will you need to make?

Here's a summary of the main things you'll need to decide when making an offer on a house...

Offer Price – What price will you be offering on the house?

Escalation Clause – If it's a new listing and if there are multiple offers, you might want to include an escalation clause, effectively increasing your offer price to compete with other offers.  If you choose to do so, how high do you want your escalation clause to potentially increase your offer price?

Deposit Amount – In our market, buyers often make an earnest money deposit of roughly 1% of the purchase price.  That will seem low to anyone in another market, and a larger deposit can make your offer appear stronger.  This deposit is credited towards what you bring to closing – and would typically be returned to you if the transaction does not proceed to settlement based on an agreed upon contract contingency.

Personal Property – What personal property will convey with the house, such as the kitchen appliances, clothes washer, clothes dryer, etc.?

Financing Contingency – Unless you have cash to make the purchase, you'll need to include a financing contingency.  What percentage of the purchase price will you be financing?  You will –– of course –– also need to provide a lender pre–approval letter with your offer.

Inspection Contingency – Do you want your offer to be contingent on a home inspection?  I recommend this, but including this contingency may make your offer less competitive if there are competing offers.

Radon Test Contingency – Do you want your offer to be contingent on a radon test?  I recommend this, mostly if you have a basement with living space, but including this contingency may (again) make your offer less competitive.

Appraisal Contingency – Do you want your offer to be contingent on an appraisal?  Again, this may make your offer less competitive – though depending on the loan–to–value ratio of your mortgage, the house might have to appraise at/above the contract price for your loan to be approved.

Home Sale Contingency – Do you need to sell another house in order to buy the house you want to buy?  Of note, this is not a contingency that home sellers typically consider these days in our market.

Financing Deadline – By what date will you have loan approval?  It is typically reasonable for this to be 21 to 30 days after the contract date.

Closing Timeline – On what date will you propose to close on your purchase of the home?  It is typically reasonable for this to be 30 to 45 days after the contract date – but consider asking the seller about their preferences.

And... that's about it.  We can talk through all of these items in general before we see a house of interest... but when you are ready to make an offer on a house, these are the offer terms we'll need to discuss in order to put together your offer on the house you'd like to buy!

 

It's finally spring... and we are starting to see more new listings hitting the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Some of those new listings will be houses you love... and some will be houses that seem moderately interesting, but that don't seem to be a great fit.

Given recent low inventory levels, many home buyers are going to see both types of new listings...

1.  moderately interesting new listings

2.  really exciting new listings

But... keep in mind that the speed at which we go see any particular new listing should (ideally) relate to how much you like the new listing.

Moderately interesting new listing –– Let's go see it in the next few days, as your schedule allows, without canceling other plans of adjusting too much on your schedule.

Really exciting new listing –– Can we go now?  Or this afternoon?  We must see this really, really soon!

Why do we need to go see a really existing new listing very quickly?

1.  Really exciting listings only come about every now and then – given the scarcity, we must go see it quickly.

2.  If the new listing is really exciting to you, it's probably really exciting to others, so it may very well go under contract quickly.

3.  If it's really exciting... you might want to make an offer... and I want you to have as much time as possible to consider the terms of such offer and make a final decision on making the offer... we'll have more time if you see the house sooner.

So... nice new listing... see it soon... amazing new listing... see it NOW!

 

Inventory levels are still relatively low in many price ranges and areas in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Thus, as a new buyer, it can be a bit discouraging at first...

But... at this time of year, you may be in luck... the right house might hit the market any day... or several houses in a day... or at least several houses in a week.

So, if you are hoping to buy a home this Spring season...

1.  Get pre–approved ASAP so you're ready to act fast if the right house comes on the market for sale.

2.  Monitor new listings closely and consider signing up for email alerts or set up a search on your mobile app of choice.

3.  Depending on your work schedule, or otherwise, let's try to go see listings the day they hit the market –– or the following day.

4.  Be prepared to quickly make a decision about whether to make an offer.

Spring is upon us... technically starting last week on March 20th... so get ready for plenty of new listings to consider, and be ready to act!

 

Most (certainly not all) houses make it to closing within 30 to 45 days of when they go under contract.

There are plenty of exceptions...

1.  Sometimes a buyer, seller, lender and settlement agent are all on board with and motivated to get to closing faster than 30 days.

2.  Sometimes buyers or sellers have other timing issues that cause the closing timeline to be greater than 45 days.

3.  Most new construction takes well more than 45 days to get to closing.

But for the most part, you can likely assume that about 30 to 45 days will pass between when you contract to buy or sell... and when you close on the house.

So, sometimes, we need to work things out backwards.

For example if you want your kids to finish out their school year in their current home through the end of the Harrisonburg City school year...

The last day of school is June 6.  Perhaps you pack up and move out the following week with a closing on June 13.

Now, let's work backwards...

30–ish day closing = contract on May 14

45–ish day closing = contract on April 29

If your home is likely to sell fast, we might list it only a week before that target contract date... which would mean listing your home for sale sometime between April 22 and May 7.

If your home might take a bit longer to sell, we might list it three weeks before that target contract date... which would mean listing your home for sale sometime between April 8 and April 23.

If you want to be in your home through a specific date, let's use the current market norm of 30 to 45 days, plus your anticipated time on the market to determine the best day (more or less) to list your home for sale.

 

If you spend any time (at all) flipping through photos of new listings you'll see that most homes are immaculately prepared, neat as a pin, a showcase of minimalist style, and without a single item out of place. 

 

But... that's not really how most people live. 

 

So, what's a homeowner to do when they are faced with needing to get their home on the market – FAST – and it is far from being one of those immaculately prepared homes, neat as a pin, a showcase of minimalist style, and without a single item out of place?

First, wait, why do they need to get their house on the market so quickly? 

Good question, it could be a variety of reasons...

1.  Dream house just hit the market – really want to buy it – but need to sell your house first.

2.  Just landed a new job – out of town – really need to sell ASAP.

Actually, those are probably the two main reasons why I see homeowners scrambling to quickly prepare their home to be listed for sale.  

Certainly, there have been times in years gone by when we might have seen more homeowners in that type of a rush because they lost their job, but that hasn't been as much of a thing for a while now.

So... how then do we do it?  How can we get your house ready to go quickly?  Very, very, very quickly?

1.  Start the the highest impact areas... main living spaces, kitchen, family room, primary bedroom and bathroom, etc.

2.  Consider boxing up extra belongings that you won't need for at least a few weeks (or until after the move) and storing those boxes in the garage, in the basement, in a storage unit, etc.

3.  Make any fast repairs that will be noticeable to buyers when they are touring your home.  You don't have time for projects that will take a week or longer, but there might be some quick fixes you can pull off.

4.  Clean like crazy, or hire a professional mover to come in and clean floors, countertops, other surfaces, etc.

5.  Do all the big stuff first –– that will be seen in photos –– and then take another day or two for the final preparations and cleaning between when the photos are taken and when the sign goes in the yard.

6.  Call in help from family members, friends, neighbors and more –– many hands make light(er) work.

If you need to get your home on the market quickly, let's meet at your house –– ASAP –– to walk through together and talk about priorities, strategies and a timeline!

How hot is the market?  How quickly are things moving?

It depends on the price range, location, property type and more.

There are quite a few houses still going under contract within just a few days... with multiple offers... with escalation clauses... with waived contingencies.

But that is no longer the case for all (or nearly all) new listings –– as it was for a few years.

There are plenty of homes that are either...

1.  Not going under contract during the first week.

...or...

2.  Going under contract in the first week, but with only one offer, and with inspection contingencies.

So... how do we know if your house will receive multiple offers with escalation clauses and waived inspections?  We'll hope that is the case, of course, but the best way to try to predict that is by...

1.  Looking at how quickly highly similar homes have gone under contract over the past few months.

2.  Compare the list price to the sales price for those highly similar homes.

In the end, we won't know for sure how many offers you will receive, and what the terms of those offers might be, but in the current market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

1.  It is still quite possible that there will be multiple offers, with escalation clauses, and waived inspections.

...but...

2.  It also quite possible that you will not have multiple offers, or escalation clauses or waived inspections.

It is still a strong seller's market in most price ranges, in most locations, for most property types –– but it is not a ridiculously strong, significantly lopsided, crazy, topsy–turvy seller's market for any and all properties like it was for a few years.

If you will be selling your home soon, let's take a peek at the latest data related to highly similar home sales to make our best guess as to how the market will respond to your home once it is listed for sale.

 

If you're moving from Harrisonburg to another area entirely... or if you are moving from another area to Harrisonburg... you may need to – or want to – rent for the first year.

Many people moving to a new area find themselves needing to rent for the first year because of the challenges of selling a home in one market while trying to buy a new one simultaneously in another market.

Oftentimes, you won't be able to buy a new house until your current house is sold... or at least under contract.  So, when your current house is under contract, perhaps with a 45 day closing timeline, you will then potentially have a very short period of time to find a home to buy in that new market... and you're probably not physically there to check the houses out yourself.

Yes, sometimes there is a way around this by renting back from the buyer of your current home... or by proposing longer than typical closing timeframes... but finding a house to buy, in a hurry, in a market where you are not currently living, can be challenging.

I suppose one other creative strategy could be:

1.  Prep current house for sale.

2.  List current house for sale.

3.  Fly to new market and start viewing houses.

4.  Hope your house goes under contract while you are still in the new market, and make an offer on a house you have seen on your trip.

5.  Fly back home with the current house and the new house both under contract.

I'm thinking it often doesn't happen quite so simply as I have outlined above. 

Yes, renting for a year, and then buying, will require moving twice... but there are some advantages to renting before you buy in a new market.

You will be able to get to know various neighborhoods and parts of town, or suburbs of a city once you are living (in a rental) in the new market.  This will allow you to better understand the area or areas where you might want to buy a home... rather than having to choose a location of a new house before having experienced life in the new market.

You will also be able to get a broader look at available housing inventory over time... rather than just choosing from what is available to purchase in a one week or a one month timeframe.

So... if you are moving to a new area... be that moving to Harrisonburg, or moving from Harrisonburg... you might consider renting for a year before you buy. 

Or not.  :–) 

Let me know if it would be helpful to talk through some of these concepts, logistics and strategies if you are moving from one area to another.

 

The market is still moving relatively quickly in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

As such, once we walk inside of a house, and you decide you like it enough to make an offer, the clock may be ticking and you may need to make a decision about an offer AND offer terms rather quickly.

We'll have a limited amount of time for you to make a few big decisions...

[1]  What price do you want to offer?

[2]  Do you want to include an escalation clause?

[3]  How high will that escalation clause go?

[4]  Do you want to include a home inspection contingency?

[5]  Do you want to include an appraisal contingency?

Some of these questions are certainly property specific –– and your answer will be different when asked about different properties.

But some questions can be made somewhat more generic...

[1]  Will there ever be a time when you are comfortable making an offer without an inspection contingency?

[2]  Are you comfortable paying more than the appraised value for a house?

Including a home inspection or appraisal contingency (or both) will definitely make your offer less competitive if there are multiple offers and if one (or more) of the other offers does not include either or both of those contingencies.

So... before you go see a house that you then might discover that you love... think about...

[1]  Would you be comfortable buying a home that you love without doing an inspection?

[2]  Would you be comfortable paying more than the appraised value for a house that you love?

Thinking about these questions generically will prepare you for when I ask you to think about your answer to that question when we're inside of one specific home. 

 

While every home sale is different –– with unique contingencies based on the needs and situations of the buyer and seller –– there are three main hurdles that most buyers and the houses they are purchasing must clear to make it to closing.

So if you are selling your house –– where is your contract in this process?  Have you cleared 1, 2 or 3 of the hurdles, thus far?  There will be plenty of other details to attend to, but these are the three main areas of focus.  Evaluating the property condition, the property value, and the buyer's finances....

INSPECTION – This is an evaluation, by a home inspector, of the condition of the house.  Clearing this hurdle sometimes involves requesting that the seller make some repairs to the house (or negotiate further on price) based on new information about the property condition discovered during the inspection process.

APPRAISAL – This is an evaluation, by an appraiser hired by the purchaser's lender, of the value of the house.  If the property appraises for the contract price (or higher), all is well –– otherwise, the buyer might request that the seller agree to adjusting the contract price based on the appraised value.

LOAN APPROVAL – This is an evaluation, by a lender (and the underwriters) of the purchaser's financial situation.  The lender must confirm that the buyer has the income to support the mortgage payment required for purchasing the home.

Again – there are many other smaller hurdles (for example, a termite inspection) and larger hurdles (for example, a home sale contingency) that may need to be cleared in your purchase (or sale) of a home –– but these three main hurdles (inspection, appraisal, loan approval) are the three main mileposts during the contract–to–closing process that we'll be focused during the transaction.

 

Generally speaking, the larger the home, the lower the price (or value) per square foot of that home.

As a result, we can't always use price per square foot as a main method for determining the value of a home.

Let's suppose that five homes sold in a neighborhood with sizes between 1,950 SF and 2,050 SF, and they all sold for $200/SF.  Thus... sales prices of about $400K.  ($200/SF * 2000 SF)

If your home (also in the same neighborhood) has 3,500 SF will your home sell for $700K?  ($200/SF * 3500 SF)  Probably not.  As the size of a home increases, the price per square foot usually decreases, as shown on the graph above.

So... if we are looking at relatively similar sized comparable sales (similar to eachother and similar to your home) then estimating the value of your home based on price per square foot might be reasonable.

But if there is a decent amount of variation in the square footage of the comparable homes and/or between those homes and your home... then estimating the value of your home based on price per square foot will likely not be an accurate way to understand the value of your home.

 

Yes, indeed... homes are selling for over a million dollars in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... though it has only been since 2021 that we have seen more than one or two such sales a year.

There were (10) million dollar (plus) home sales in 2021 and 2022... but then million dollar sales dropped back down to only five sales in 2023.

But last year... in 2024... we saw a significant uptick in million dollar home sales... with 16 such sales!

Thus far in 2025 there has only been one home sale over a million dollars, but the year has just begun, so give it a bit more time to see how things progress this year.

Curious about what these million dollar homes look like?  Check out the latest million dollar (plus) home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County here...

 

Most graphs I examine are looking at the total number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  This graph is a bit different.

All of those other graphs include data that encompasses both resale homes and new homes.  This graph examines only the number of existing homes that are selling.

We have been in a strong buyer's market since (at least) 2018... thus, the number of existing home sales per year...

1.  Is showing us the number of buyers who bought and sellers who sold.  :–)

2.  Is not necessarily showing us how many buyers wanted to buy.

3.  Is more reasonably interpreted as a view into how many sellers were willing to sell.

Between 2018 and 2022 we consistently saw more than 1,100 homeowners a year being willing to sell their homes.

Then, in 2023, that dropped to only 923 homeowners being willing to sell.

Thankfully, a slightly larger number of homeowners (994) were willing to sell in 2024.

Why did the number of homeowners who were willing to sell (turnover, if you will) drop so much in 2023?  I think it is primarily a combination of two factors...

[1]  Home prices feeling higher, ever higher, thanks to four years in a row of 10% annual increases in the median sales price. 

[2]  Mortgage interest rates climbing from 3% in early 2022 to 6% in early 2023.

So... higher than ever home prices and higher than anytime recently interest rates leaves many homeowners saying... yeah, I think I will choose NOT to sell my house this year.

And thus... the market has tightened for buyers.  There are plenty of buyers waiting and wanting to buy resale homes, but they are at the mercy of how many homeowners will be willing to sell. 

An early look at 2025 shows...

Jan + Feb 2025 = 115 existing home sales

...and in context...

Jan + Feb 2024 = 131 existing home sales

Oh darn.  Maybe even FEWER existing homeowners will sell their homes in 2025!?!