Happy February Friday, Friends!

I hope you are enjoying this slightly warmer week of winter weather.  I was reflecting back today on when the snow first started falling during the recent winter storm and I thought everything looked so beautiful and peaceful, and the snow seemed so innocent...

...and then the three inches of sleet fell on top of the snow, and froze, and stayed frozen, and stayed frozen.  We've been able to walk around on the snow (aka ice skating rink) in our backyard for over two weeks now, and it just started to soften and melt earlier this week.  But, warmer weather is coming, and it might hit 60 degrees next week, so perhaps we'll start to see more grass soon.

I hope you have stayed safe, and warm, and slip–free over the past few weeks despite treacherous roads... and driveways... and sidewalks!

Moving on from the snow, though, you have the chance to warm up over a nice latte at Greenberry's...

Each month I have a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month, enter for a chance to win a $50 gift card to Greenberry's – where my go to order is typically a caramel latte and either a breakfast burrito or a cranberry scone.  Enter here for a chance to win the gift card to Greenberry's.

While you're enjoying a cup of coffee or other treat at Greenberry's you can scroll through my daily email newsletter that I send out each weekday with a quick note related to our local market, the buying and selling process, and more.  Recent stories have included...

Now, on to the latest trends in our local market, starting with the actual data of home sales, prices and days on market for all residential properties sold through the MLS in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County...

January was... as January usually is... slow.  There were only 86 home sales in January, which is about the same as last January.  When we look at the past 12 month (Feb to Jan) we see a slight decline (–1%) in the number of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

The median sales price has also declined ever so slightly (less than 1%) over the past year from about $346K to $345K.  So, slightly fewer home sales and flat prices.

Meanwhile, it is taking homes slightly longer to sell, with the median days on market rising from six days to eight days when looking at the past 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.

But let's get a better sense of those overall trends by looking at some graphs together...

The red "86" above shows the 86 sales in January compared to the 84 seen last January... and the average of 90 January sales over the past four years.  So, January home sales were very much in line with what we might have otherwise expected them to be.

Looking ahead (via the graph above) we are likely to see another slow month of home sales in February and likely in March before things start to accelerate in April and onward.

As mentioned above, we're seeing slightly fewer sales and flat prices, which you can see below with each data point representing the prior 12 months of data...

The top green line shows the median sales price, which has been relatively level over the past year, though modulating between $345K and $349K.

Meanwhile, as per the blue line above, we're seeing slightly slower home sales (per year) right now, though more home sales (per year) than we were seeing two years ago.

To try to predict the future (at least the next few months of it) let's look at contract activity...

Here again, January was about what we would have expected.  The 99 contracts signed in January was a bit higher than the 97 last January, and a (slightly larger) bit lower than the four year average of 108 January contracts.

We are likely see another slow (or slower) month of contract activity in February before things likely start to take off with much more contract activity in March and April.

Meanwhile, inventory levels continue their 2025 trend of staying a good bit higher than the prior year...

A year ago there were 140 homes for sale (blue line) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... compared to 165 homes for sale today.  The graph above shows that as we moved through last year, inventory levels stayed well above the four year average for monthly inventory – and that seems to be continuing into 2026. 

It will be interesting to see if we see another incremental increase in inventory levels in 2026 over top of 2025... which were already higher than 2024.

And that "days on market" figure –– it is definitely rising...

Breaking it down a bit... "days on market" is the number of days it takes for a property to go under contract after it is listed for sale... though this is only calculated based on homes that have actually sold.  It's also worth noting that the "median" aspect of the days on market figure means that (for example) half of homes went under contract in 11 or more days, and half went under contract in 11 or fewer days.

The graph above measures the median days on market over the past six months... so the last data point (11 days) is looking at August 2025 through January 2026.  Regardless of all of those technical details, it is evident that it we continue to see increases in how long it is taking homes to go under contract once they hit the market for sale.

Finally, let's peek in at interest rates, perhaps for a bit of a surprise...

Remarkably, mortgage interest rates at the end of January 2026 were at almost the lowest point we have seen them over the past three years.  The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage rate was 6.10% at the end of January, and it was only lower than that for one other month over the past 36 months!

Might we see interest rates in the 5–point–something range in 2026?  It seems possible!

I'll wrap up the highlights of our local market there for now... though you'll find plenty of additional charts and graphs over here if you want to read further.

Until next month...

Home Buyers – 

1.  Get pre–approved if you aren't already to get a sense of how your monthly budget lines up with loan amounts and purchase prices.

2.  Let's go see new listings quickly when they hit the market to excitedly pursue them or to decisively decide not to do so.

3.  You should see even more options to buy as we move into March and April.

Home Sellers – 

1.  Pricing, preparation and marketing are more important than ever as home buyers are making more thoughtful (and also slower) decisions about whether to make offers.

2.  There should be more buyer activity in March and April, but you'll also have more competition from other sellers at that time.

3.  Yes, it's OK to list your home with snow still on the ground.  :–)

  

We have seen some unusual (for this area) winter weather over the past few weeks and it seems it may have slowed down the real estate market, temporarily.

With had about six inches of snow, then roughly three inches of sleet, and then temperatures well below freezing, many of us have been dealing with ice rinks in our yards. It was tough for plows to clear streets, for homeowners to clear driveways, and many sidewalks and yards are still iced over.  Not surprisingly, we haven't seen many new listings come on the market during this recent stretch.

The past two days of warmer temperatures have helped, and I'm finally seeing patches of grass here and there, though plenty of snow and ice is still hanging on. Looking ahead, the next seven days are forecast to be somewhat warmer as well, with highs of 40, 44, 55, 44, 63, 62, and 69. If that forecast holds, it's possible that most of the snow and ice will be gone by the end of next week.

So... will we see a "flurry" of new listings once the melt happens?  ;–)

Possibly.  Some homeowners likely have been waiting to list until they can take better exterior photos and until the property simply looks more inviting. But since this is a slower time of year for new listings anyway, the weather may have just amplified the usual winter slowdown.

If you're trying to buy right now and seeing limited options in your price range, I'm hopeful we'll start to see more homes popping up in late February and early March as all of this snow and ice finally melts and more sellers are ready to get their homes on the market for sale.

   

When you are buying a home under $400K, there is a good chance you will have competition from other buyers.  

If so, you might then wonder whether you should add an escalation clause and waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies.

If it is still early in the home search, many buyers will start with more conservative offers and see how things go.

A full price offer, contingent on inspection and appraisal?  Great. Let's do it.

That type of offer gives you the ability to learn more about the house via an inspection and gives you options if the appraisal comes in low.

But over time, your perspective might change.

Making the offer described above might cause you to miss out on some (or many) houses in a competitive offer scenario.

Eventually, you might decide you are tired of missing out on houses... and you might decide to make your offers stronger and to take on a bit more risk.

That might mean an escalation clause... and it might mean removing the inspection and/or appraisal contingency.

But remember... you don't have to do that on your first offer... unless you really love the house.

Many buyers, reasonably, start conservatively with their offers – until they get to a house that motivates them to change their strategy, or until enough time and houses they have missed out on cause them to change their approach.
   

You will almost certainly have to compromise in some ways when you buy a home.  

When we're walking through a home that is close... but not perfect... I will often encourage you to ask yourself...

Even if it is not perfect, could it work well enough?

Most homes we see will fall into one of three categories...

1.  We will see some homes that are definitely not the house for you. The layout might be off, the location might not work, the finishes or style are too different from what you like, etc.

2.  We might (might!?) see the perfect, perfect house that checks every single box and requires zero no compromises. It happens sometimes, though not very often.

3.  We are likely to see quite a few homes that are really close to your vision but not quite there. And those are the ones that require a bit more thought.

There are a variety of ways you might find yourself potentially compromising...

1.  If everything feels great except some paint colors and flooring, that can change. 

2.  Maybe you would love the house to be a bit larger, but there is unfinished basement space for future expansion. 

3.  You might wish the yard was a bit larger, but if you think about how you typically use your yard, it should be fine.

4.  Or you might wish it was a bit closer to Harrisonburg, but it is not too far and the drive is manageable.

As we walk through each house, we'll want to think and talk through the compromises you would be making if you bought each home, and whether you are comfortable with those compromises.

Even if it is not perfect, could it work well enough?

  

When you are selling your home, it can be helpful to understand how many buyers are likely to be considering your home.  

Past sales data isn't entirely predictive of future buyer interest, but it's a reasonable proxy for it when looking at large data sets.

For example, perhaps you are selling a townhouse... if so, it's important to realize that over the past year:

So, your experience selling a $325K townhouse is likely to be a bit different than if you are selling a $525K townhouse.

Looking at a few data sets for detached homes over the past year:

  

When we're going to take a look at homes together, one of the big questions we'll be considering –– whether out loud or just in our heads –– is this...

Will this home work well for you, both now and into the future?

But how far into the future should we be thinking?

For some buyers –– especially first–time buyers –– the answer might be five to seven years. 

For others, it might be ten to twenty years. 

Both can be perfectly reasonable timelines, but they might lead us to very different types of homes.

Spoiler alert...

Homes that will work well for ten or twenty years will likely cost more than those that will work well for the next five to seven years.

So, if we simplify the decision down to two options, which path seems like the better fit for you?

Buy a less expensive home that meets your needs today and definitely for the next few years, but might not work as well in 10+ years?

Or, spend a bit more on a home that works well for you now and almost certainly will continue to work for you for many, many years to come?

There's no single answer to this question –– sometimes it depends on the particular house, sometimes the decision is driven by your budget, and sometimes by how clearly you (think you) can envision your future.

Regardless of how certain or uncertain you might feel about this time horizon question, we should at least think and talk about it as you consider an offer on any particular home.

   

Sometimes in this fast–moving market –– especially if you're looking under $350K, especially if you're looking in the City of Harrisonburg, and especially if you're looking for a detached home –– you might find yourself in a multiple offer situation.

We'll walk through a home and you love it, and decide to quickly make an offer.  You make a strong offer and we hope for the best.

But then... you don't get the house.

That's no fun –– and understandably disappointing –– especially if you really wanted it and if really made a very strong offer.

But here's one hopeful way to look at it, as recently pointed out by a buyer who missed out on a house...

At least that's one less buyer we'll be competing against next time.

If 10 buyers toured that house and 5 of them made offers, one of those buyers is now under contract to buy a home. 

So, if a similar home comes on the market in a few weeks, hopefully this time there will only be 9 showings and 4 offers.

Will you still be competing in a multiple offer scenario?  Yes.  Will it be slightly less competitive?  Hopefully so!

In a market where many homes are still moving quickly, sometimes with multiple offers, this sort of positive perspective on missing out on a house goes a long way. 
  

How many bathrooms does a house really need? That answer has changed quite a bit over the years –– and so have the expectations of home buyers.

In the 1950s and 60s, many homes were built with just one full bathroom. That single bath served the entire house, often from a central hallway. 

By the 70s and 80s, it became more common to see a full bath in the hall and a half bath connected to the primary bedroom... which I have observed in several homes locally that I have shown over the past few weeks.

In the decades that followed, two full bathrooms became the norm, especially in newly built homes. And more recently, we're seeing larger homes with three or more full bathrooms –– sometimes with every bedroom having its own.

So what is ideal? That often depends on what you're used to now, how many people live in your house and your personal preferences.

For example...

Is a half bath enough for guests, or do you want a full one?

Do your kids need their own bathroom, or can they share?

Would you give up a bathroom to gain more living space or a bigger kitchen?

Bathroom trends have changed over the decades –– and will likely keep evolving. 

There isn't really one right answer to how many bathrooms a home should have – but we ought to talk things through as to what you must have and what would be ideal.
  

When we're touring a home, it's easy to focus on the size of the kitchen, the number of bedrooms, how much natural light exists in various spaces, etc. 

But one question that we might forget to consider is...

How do you get to the backyard?

I've shown several homes recently where the path from the interior living spaces to the backyard wasn't what you would expect...

• The main level has a lovely deck, but there are no stairs leading down. The only way to get to the backyard is down through the basement and out the back door.
   
• There's not a single door on the back of the home, so your route to the backyard starts by heading out the front door and walking around the house.
   
• The home is turned sideways on the lot, so none of the main living spaces look out over or open up to the backyard.
   
• The only backyard access is through a garage that was added after the house was built.

You get the idea. Some homes don't have a convenient connection between the interior living spaces and the backyard.

And maybe that's fine. Depending on how you live, it might not matter much.

But… it's worth thinking this through before we make an offer.

If your kids are playing outside –– can you see them from the kitchen or living room? If you want to (or need to) get out to that space with them, how easy is that? Will you be navigating stairs, heading through a garage, or looping around the house?

If you have a dog, what does letting them out look like? Is it a quick open of the door, or are you putting shoes on and heading down a flight of stairs?

Having a backyard is a big plus –– but how that outdoor space connects to your indoor space can make a big difference in how it actually gets used.

So next time we're walking through a home, let's make sure to check out how accessible the backyard is from the interior living spaces, and consider whether that will work well for you.

   

Perhaps you are planning to buy a home priced at $400K. If we go see a house listed at $400K that has a newer roof, updated HVAC, and no major needed upgrades on the horizon –– that house could work well for you.

But what if we visit a $400K house with a 27–year–old roof and a 22–year–old heat pump? We might discover that the roof is not leaking and the heat pump is working properly –– but both are likely getting close to the end of their functional lives.

If there aren't any current issues with either the roof or heat pump, the seller probably won't want to fix or replace them just because those updates will be needed in a few years. 

Still, those future costs will be real costs that you will have to pay –– and thus it is important to factor them into your home buying plans.

This might mean adjusting your planned purchase price or downpayment amount.

For example...

1. Lower Your Target Purchase Price

If you're looking at a home with some significant expenses in the near future, maybe we ought to be aiming for a purchase price of $380K or $390K instead of $400K –– so you'll have money available in a few years to take care of the roof or heat pump –– or both.

2. Adjust Your Down Payment

Maybe you are still comfortable paying $400K for the house –– but instead of putting $100K down, you should put $80K down, and set aside $20K for those upcoming upgrades. That way, the cash is already available and ready to go when the time comes to make the repairs.

Or Do a Bit of Both

Perhaps we aim to lower the purchase price a bit and hold back a bit of your down payment to account for the upcoming expenses.

Some $400K homes will need very little investment for the foreseeable future. Others will require $10K or more within the first few years of homeownership. We must try to factor these costs in as we determine an offer that you are comfortable with today and that will still leave you in a comfortable spot over the first few years of owning the home.

   

Sometimes, a house looks amazing online.

The photos are stunning, the description makes it sound perfect, and the details and specs check all the boxes. But then... we go see it in person, and the reaction is: oof. The layout is awkward, the rooms are smaller than expected, or the setting just does not work.

Other times, it's the opposite. A house seems a little underwhelming online –– but the specs suggest it could work –– so we go take a look. And then... woah. It feels better than expected. The spaces work well together, the light is great, the neighborhood is appealing, and suddenly it moves to the top of the list.

That "oof" or "woah" feeling often comes from things that are hard to tell from seeing a listing online...

The size of rooms.

How one space connects to another.

What the house feels like in person.

What is (or is not) around the house outside.

So, what is the key to finding the right home to buy?

Go see any home in person that has a chance of being the one.

Just keep in mind... we will probably walk through a few "oof" houses along the way –– but we also might stumble across a "woah" home that turn out to be just the right fit.

  

If you're hoping to buy a detached home under $300K, one important question to consider early on is...

How much work are you willing to do on the home you purchase?

Some homes in that price range will be move–in ready. Others may need a bit –– or a lot –– of work. So, what might that look like?

Maybe the electrical system needs to be updated.

Perhaps the kitchen and bathrooms are dated and will need to be renovated at some point.

It could be that the flooring throughout the home needs to be replaced, along with a fresh coat of paint.

Or maybe the exterior needs paint, and some siding needs to be repaired or replaced.

Depending on the age of the homes you're considering –– and your price range –– we'll likely need to dial in on how much updating or renovating you're comfortable tackling.

Sometimes that answer is based on your budget for improvements.

Sometimes it's whether you have the time or desire to take on those projects.

Sometimes it's simply the inconvenience of living in a house while updates are being made.

Whatever your reasons, we'll want to get a clear sense of how much work you're open to doing –– so we can focus on homes that fit your budget and don't need more work than you are willing to take on.

  

If you're feeling ready to buy a home, what should your first step be?

Should we set up a time to meet to talk?

Or should we go look at a house together?

Well... it depends.

You might find yourself ready to jump into the market because an amazing new listing just hit the market. If that's the case –– if you're excited about a specific house and want to go see it –– great! Let's start there and set up a time to tour the home.

Other times, it can be helpful to begin with an initial meeting –– often at my office, or at your home or a coffee shop. That first conversation gives us a chance to talk through several key things, like:

What the current housing market looks like.

How the buying process works.

What to expect when you're ready to make an offer.

Examples of homes that fit what you're looking for.

And, of course, any questions you may have.

Whether you're planning to buy a home in the next month or sometime this year, you don't have to wait until the perfect house comes along before reaching out. An initial conversation can go a long way in helping you feel prepared for when the right home does hit the market.
  

Let's imagine a fairly common scenario in today's market...

You've just listed your home at a price that is reasonable given recent comparable sales. The property shows well, and within the first few days, we've had a quite a few showings –– and now, a few offers are starting to come in.

Two of the offers stand out:

One is at the full asking price, but it includes several relatively standard contingencies –– home inspection, financing, and appraisal.

The other is below the asking price (maybe $5K to $10K under asking), but it's a much cleaner offer with only a financing contingency, and no inspection or appraisal contingency.

Which would you prefer?

There's not one correct answer here. Some sellers will lean toward the full price offer, even with contingencies, while others may value having less risk of the cleaner offer, even at a slightly lower price.

So if you're a buyer preparing to make an offer on a home that is recently listed and priced reasonably, one question we'll probably want to ask is... whether the seller would prefer a full price offer with contingencies or a slightly lower offer with fewer contingencies.

There's no guarantee that the seller (or their agent) will provide a helpful answer –– but it doesn't hurt to ask. And as a buyer, we'll always be trying to make an offer that corresponds with the seller's goals.

The main thing to remember is... don't assume that the highest offer always wins –– but also don't assume that the cleanest offer does either.

  

Rockingham County Community Development staff regularly publishes a list of developments that are site plan review.  

Here's a list of some of the upcoming residential developments referenced in the most recent staff report...

In our current market, homes are still moving quickly. That's good news for sellers –– but it can make it a bit challenging for you if you're looking to buy and need to sell your current home first.

Most sellers today aren't overly excited about offers from buyers who still need to sell their home. Understandably, most sellers would prefer to enter into a contract with a buyer who is ready to move forward, and who does not need to wait on another sale.

So if you're in a situation where you need to sell your home before buying your next one, we need to start by talking through the selling game plan.

There are a few different ways we can approach this, and we should explore all possible options...

Will we go ahead and put your home on the market now (or soon) so that once it's under contract, you're ready to make an offer on something you want to buy?

If your home goes under contract quickly but we haven't found your next home yet, will you be comfortable moving into a rental temporarily to give you more time to find the house you would like to buy?

Is there a chance we can identify a buyer for your home before it goes on the market –– a friend, neighbor, etc. –– who would be willing to wait in the wings and sign a contract once you've found a home to buy?

No matter what strategy seems to make the most sense for you, or seems to be the most likely to work in your situation, we'll need to map out that game plan ahead of time for the sale of your current home. This will be essential in order to give you a chance at being able to buy a home.

So –– if you're thinking about buying and know you'll need to sell –– let's start by talking about the selling side of the equation, or at a minimum, let's make sure to talk about selling at the same that that we're also exploring buying.
  

Let's say you find a house you love. It checks all the boxes –– number of bedrooms, layout, finishes and features, etc. You can picture yourself living there.

But then we pause to re–think for a moment given the location and setting of the house, thinking about...

What can I walk to from this house?

Let's imagine this same exact house in three very different settings:

1. In a neighborhood with sidewalks and other homes nearby.
2. On a quiet rural road out in the County.
3. On a very busy main road just outside of town.

All three settings might work for you (or any other buyer) but it's important to consider what your day to day life and activities will look like given the setting and location of the house.

When we are exploring houses together, I'll encourage you to think beyond the house itself and consider the implications of the lot, location and setting of the house.

Depending on the usual patterns of your life, or your phase of life, the setting might be just as important as the house –– especially if you want to be able to...

1. Go for a walk or bike ride yourself
2. Head out with young kids in a stroller or on bikes
3. Train for a 5K or go out on regular runs and feel safe doing so
4. Walk to a park or playground
5. Grab a few groceries without needing to drive

Some homes are within walking or biking distance of schools, parks, trails and more. Others might require getting in the car for everything.

Again, this isn't a right–or–wrong or good–or–bad scenario –– it's about what matters most to you.

If you're someone who loves being able to walk to a coffee shop on a Saturday morning or to hit a nearby trail after for a run after work, then a quiet County road or a high–traffic City road might not be the right fit for you even if the house is perfect.

On the other hand, if you're mostly concerned about privacy, nature and separation from neighbors, a house in a neighborhood might not be the right fit.

So let's keep asking –– not just "Do you love the house?" but also: "Do you love what you can walk to from here?"

  

When we work together to sell your home, I'm focused on helping you achieve five key outcomes:

1. The best price
2. The most favorable terms
3. Optimal timing
4. The fewest surprises
5. The least stress possible

These goals guide everything I'll be doing throughout the home selling process. But getting from our first meeting to closing day isn't always a straight path.

• Will we have to negotiate on price? Possibly.
• Will we have to navigate a home inspection, a radon test, a financing contingency, or an appraisal contingency? Maybe.
• Will the timing of your sale and your move be perfectly aligned? Hopefully.
• Will we encounter a few surprises along the way? Perhaps.
• Will some parts of the transaction and move be a bit stressful? Likely.

No two home sales are the same –– but by keeping these five goals at the center of every decision, we'll likely be able to successfully get through the highs and lows of the process and successfully get you to closing on the sale of your home!

  

Two housing developments in Harrisonburg have been awarded a combined $6.4 million through Virginia's Affordable and Special Needs Housing program –– part of a record–setting $154.5 million in statewide funding announced last month by Governor Glenn Youngkin.

What's Being Funded in Harrisonburg?

Wisteria Gardens Senior Apartments by the Beverly J. Searles Foundation is receiving $5,000,000.

Market Commons by Valley Housing Trust secured $1,445,285.

Why This Matters

Affordable housing remains a pressing need in Harrisonburg. These two projects represent meaningful steps forward. They also highlight how state funding can bridge key financial gaps and make local projects possible.

Across Virginia, this funding round will support 47 housing developments and create or preserve more than 3,000 units for low–income residents.

Read more in the press release here.

   

If you're buying a home, you may find yourself wondering...

• Would it be OK to ask the seller to pay for your closing costs?
• Could you ask if you can move in a few weeks before closing?
• Can you make an offer even though you still need to sell your current home –– and it's not even on the market yet?
• What about offering $50K under asking price? Or asking the seller to buy down your interest rate?
• Could you ask them to replace the HVAC system, even though it's still working fine?

In each of these scenarios, the answer is technically yes –– you can ask.

But... the seller might not agree.

One of the unique things about real estate is that just about anything is negotiable –– as long as both parties agree. The offer you make can include just about any term or condition that feels important to you.

But keep in mind that sellers typically have their own goals, timelines, and comfort levels. Some sellers may be open to creative terms or concessions. Others may not be interested at all –– or might be overwhelmed by the complexity of what you are proposing.

So, don't be afraid to think creatively when putting together your offer. But also recognize that the seller may or may not agree to what you're proposing.

If you're navigating how to make a compelling offer –– and figuring out what's reasonable to ask –– I'm happy to help talk through the strategy based on your situation and the current market.