The most active price range for home sales in the City of Harrisonburg is... the $200K to $300K price range.

But this might be more than just what buyers are buying...

1.  The housing stock (what homes exist in the City) also impacts what is sold, and thus, what buyers can buy.

2.  The houses that homeowners in the City are willing to sell also impacts what is old, and thus, what buyers can buy.

An interesting unknown is whether home buyers would buy $500K+ or $600K+ or $700K+ homes in the City of Harrisonburg if more such homes existed.

Quarry Heights may help to answer that question as they plan to build $500K+ detached homes and $600K+ attached villas.

 

Buying a home inevitably involves making some compromises.  It is rare to find a home that fits you perfectly, that has everything that you want, and nothing that you don't.

But... there are different types of compromises you might be considering making when viewing any particular home...

1.  I like this home a lot, but I will probably want to update the flooring and do a lot of painting, and I might want to try to open up that wall between the kitchen and dining area.

2.  I absolutely love this home, and wouldn't really change anything about it, other than that I wish it didn't back up to this busy road as all we hear is road noise when we're out on the back deck.

The compromise on the first house is short term, and changeable –– you can (soon or eventually) replace flooring, paint walls, and possibly open up a wall between two rooms.

The compromise on the second house is likely long term, and unchangeable –– busy roads almost always tend to remain busy roads or to become busier roads. 

So, as you are thinking about the compromises you are making in pursuing any given home, think about whether they are aspects of the property that you can or cannot change in the future.

It is common knowledge that the winter months are the slowest when it comes to home sales –– in our local market, and beyond. 

But just how much slower are they?

The graph above shows the average number of *contracts signed* per month during the winter (Dec, Jan Feb) as compared to during the spring (Mar, Apr, May) based on the past three years of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

So... 

Is 100 buyers buying a month a significantly slower pace of buyers committing to buy than 142 buyers buying a month?  Yes.

Is 100 buyers buying a month still a pretty solid amount of buyers buying per month in the context of the spring market only comprising of 142 buyers buying a month?  Yes.

Is it possible that the number of buyers buying per month during the winter is artificially constrained by a lower number of sellers being willing to sell per month?  Yes.

So... if you are thinking about selling your home in the next six months... should you wait until spring?  You could, but I don't think you need to if you would rather sell and move sooner than springtime. 

There will still be plenty of buyers buying over the winter, even if it is not as many as will be buying in the spring.

 

Happy Friday morning, all! 

November is flying right along... with a rather entertaining overlap of the JMU football and basketball seasons (Go Dukes!)... plus one of my favorite holidays, Thanksgiving! 

Speaking of JMU Basketball... each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report.  This month I'm giving away four tickets to the JMU Men's Basketball game on Saturday, December 7 at 4:00 PM.  Click here to enter for a chance to win the tickets to cheer on the JMU Dukes!

Now, on to the latest in our local housing market.  First, some of the overall metrics...

Home sales slowed, a touch, in October 2024 with only 110 home sales as compared to 116 last October... but thus far this year we have seen 1,118 home sales, which is a 6% increase from the 1,050 seen in the same timeframe last year.  So... 6% more home sales this year than last... and how about those prices...

The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the first ten months of 2024 has been $345,000 –– which is a 5% increase from the median sales price of $330,000 last year at this time.  So... 6% more home sales, and 5% higher prices... how about the speed of those sales...

Median days on market continues to (slowly) increase in 2024... which a current median of 7 days, up from 6 days a year ago, and 5 days the prior year.  So... small increases in the speed at which home sales go under contract, but 6% more home sales and 5% higher prices.

Now, let's take a quick look at only single family detached housing, which excludes townhouses, duplexes and condos...

In contrast to the market–wide 6% increase in the number of homes that are selling, we are only seeing a 2% increase in the number of detached homes that are selling.  Also of note, two years ago we had seen 941 detached home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County through the end of October, whereas we are only seeing 751 such sales thus far in 2024.

When it comes to prices, we are seeing a stronger (12%) increases in the median sales price of detached homes as compared to the overall market–wide 5% increase in the median sales price.  Furthermore, the median sales price of a single family detached home has increased from $327,000 to $390,900 over the past two years.

Next up, let's take a peek just at the City of Harrisonburg...

While we are seeing increases in home sales in most portions of the market... and in the overall market... not so much in the City of Harrisonburg.  There have only been 231 home sales in the City thus far in 2024 which is a 13% decline from last year, and a 39% decline from the 376 home sales seen in the first ten months of 2022.

Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...

Mirroring the 13% decline in City sales in 2024, we are finding a 13% increase in Rockingham County home sales thus far in 2024. 

One reason we are seeing more of an increase in home sales in the County than in the City is a result of most new home developments currently being built in the County... and not the City. 

Here's a look at the number of new construction homes selling in recent years...

And as you might imagine... if we're seeing a 28% increase in new home sales in the first ten months of 2024, we probably aren't seeing much of an increase in existing home sales...

Indeed, we are seeing a tiny decline in existing home sales this year (793) compared to last year (796) though both are considerably below the 1,042 existing homes that sold two years ago in the first 10 months of 2022.

Rolling over now into some graphs, let's see what else we can learn about our local housing market through the end of October 2024...

For five of the past six months we have seen more home sales this year than last year... the one exception being October.  We could also generalize and say that the larger increases in monthly sales (larger little gold arrows) were on the first half of the past six months... while the smaller increases (smaller little gold arrows) were on the second half of the past six months. 

Looking ahead a bit on the graph above... it seems almost guaranteed that we will see more November home sales this year than last.  Last year we saw monthly home sales drop from 116 in October to 72 in November.  I don't think we will see that large of a decline this year.

When we pile up each month of the year on top of the prior months, here's what we get over the past few years...

Home sales are on the rise this year... increasing from 1,049 to 1,1118 in the first ten months of the year... BUT... that is still a significant drop from the 1,389 home sales seen in the first 10 months of 2022!  The biggest difference, as you likely know, is that we were still experiencing super low mortgage interest rates in 2022... which were no longer around in 2023 and 2024.

On this next graph I'm trying to generalize the main two shifts I have seen in 2024...

The top line is tracking median sales prices.  For several years we saw 10% per year annual increases in the median sales price... up to and including in 2023... but home prices seem to be increasing a bit more slowly in 2024... more in the neighborhood of a 5% increase instead of a 10% increase.

The other main change we have seen in 2024 is that home sales are rising again... so as to say that more homes are selling.  Through most of 2023 we saw steady declines in the number of homes that were selling, but that trend reversed itself (slowly) in 2024.

Zooming out a bit, take a look at the change in home values for detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past five years...

Indeed... you are reading that correctly... the median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased by $150,000 over the past five years... for a cumulative 62% increase!

A few thoughts come to mind...

1.  Anyone who has owned the same home for the past 5+ years likely has quite a bit of equity in their home.

2.  It is a lot harder (financially) to consider buying a detached home now (median price of $391K) than it was five years ago (median price of $240K).

3.  Changes in mortgage interest rates over the past five years haven't helped buyers either –– as the average rate on a 30 year mortgage was 3.75% five years ago, and is 6.78% today.

Wowsa!

Shifting gears a bit, let's zoom back in to the here and now, to see what recent contract activity might tell us about upcoming months of home sales...

Here (above) is the other reason why I don't think we'll see a decline in November home sales this year like we did last year... there was a drastic difference in October contract activity this year compared to last.

The key thing to remember about last October is that it included the final climb to a peak average mortgage interest rate of 7.79%.  That steady climb slowed and slowed and slowed down buyer activity last October (and November) as shown by the blue line above.

Thus, even though mortgage interest rates are currently in the 6% – 6.75% range, we still saw many more buyers signing contracts to buy homes this October (138) as compared to last October (83).

I expect we will continue to see stronger contract activity in November and December of this year compared to the same months last year.

Which leads us to "pending sales" –– the number of homes that are under contract at any given time...

The red line (above) tracks how many homes are pending (under contract) per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  As you can see from all the gold arrows, we had been seeing increases in pending sales for most of the months this year... through August, when 2024 fell below 2023... but things have picked back up again significantly in September and October.

There are currently 291 homes under contract (pending) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to only 234 a year ago at this time.

And how about those inventory levels?

Look at the difference in the trajectory of the blue and red lines above.  The blue line shows how inventory levels were steadily rising last year between July and October... in contrast to the red line that shows inventory levels mostly decreasing this year between July and October.

Now in November, we see far fewer (163) homes for sale than at the same time last year when 230 homes were listed for sale and not yet under contract.

A thread that runs through all of these charts are graphs is change in mortgage interest rates over time which is what we'll examine next...

Lots of arrows on this graph –– sorry, not sorry.  

A year ago we were seeing mortgage interest rates rise as we progressed from August (6.81%) to November (7.79%). 

We have seen an overall decline in rates over the past year (7.79% to 6.72%) but over the past month we have actually seen them start to increase a bit, rising from 6.08% at the end of September up to 6.72% at the end of October.

Mortgage interest rates significantly impact the cost of housing and have played an oversized role in the the housing market (locally and beyond) over the past few years due to how quickly they have increased.

So, if you've made it thus far, thanks for reading and for educating yourself on the state of our local housing market.  The general, recent, local, trends I am seeing in our local market include:

For much of the past few years, being optimistic and being realistic about pricing your home were one and the same.  The last similar home sold for $450K?  Let's price your home at $475K.  Three offers within days.  Yahoo!

But now, higher mortgage interest rates are pricing some buyers out of the market – which makes it ever more important for home sellers to find the balance between being optimistic and realistic when pricing their home.

The last similar home sold for $450K?  Perhaps we price your home at $449,500. 

A competing home has been on the market for 60 days priced at $455,000?  Perhaps we price your home at $445,000.

We can't just throw any price on your home and hope for the best –– we must do a careful analysis of the market, including past sales and current competing listings before determining a final pricing strategy for your home.

 

Darn those wide angle lenses.  ;–)

It's pretty a pretty common phenomenon these days... we'll go walk through a house that looked FANTASTIC online... only to find out that all (or most) of the bedrooms are TINY!

I don't really blame the seller, or the seller's agent, or the photographer... it's going to happen these days given high quality photography and wide angle lenses.

My takeaways, generally, are...

1.  It's important that we go walk through homes to get a sense of room size, house layout, where furniture will and won't fit, etc.  Viewing a house online, alone, is not enough.  

2.  Don't feel bad about taking the time to go see a house that ends up not being a great fit after we walk through... that is often the only way to get a true sense of the house.

3.  Sometimes we will be able to review room dimensions or floor plans prior to visiting a house... which might help us notice particularly small spaces... but walking through is still important.

4.  I don't think sellers need to mention how small particular rooms are... or not use a wide angle lens... but you should price your home accordingly if many buyers will disqualify themselves based on room size.

 

Most home sellers would assign some amount of value to not having to prepare your home for the market.

This might allow you to skip...

1.  Touch up paint

2.  Final organization

3.  Final cleaning

4.  Photos

5.  Showings

You can likely skip some or all of these if you are in touch with a buyer who you know wants to buy your house.

But... you probably wouldn't put tooooo high of a value on not having to prepare your house for the market...

If you believe your home will sell on the market for $375K... and the known buyer wants to pay $370K for your house, you'll probably go for it.  If they want to pay $365K you might still go for it.

But if the buyer only wants to pay $360K for your house... many or most sellers will go ahead and take the time to make the final preparations to get their house on the market.  After all, why potentially leave $15,000 on the table by selling to the known buyer who wants to pay that lower price for your house.

This also does not account for whether your house might fetch multiple offers and sell for a bit above the asking price.

If you hope to sell for $375K... and a known buyer wants to pay $360K... and you end up selling for $385K when you get your house on the market... you would have left $25,000 on the table by selling to the known buyer before listing your house for sale.

But... every seller's situation is different.  Let's think through and talk through what works best for you... and what your priorities are when it comes to pricing, timing and ease of sale.

 

Plenty of homes are still selling (going under contract) plenty quickly. 

But, not all of them.

Over the past three months (Aug 10 – Nov 10) we have seen 315 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as recorded in the HRAR MLS.

Of those 315 home sales... 85 of the homes took more than 30 days to go under contract.

Thus –– 27% of homes are taking longer than a month to go under contract. 

So... if you are getting ready to sell your home, I am hopeful that it will be under contract within a matter of days... or weeks... but it could take more than a month to sell.

Not too many years ago, this was quite normal and not at all unusual –– but over the past five or so years, the pace of the market has increased so much that it might seem unfathomable that it might take more than a month for your home to sell.

 

Sometimes we will find a home that is a perfect fit for you.

More often, we will find a home that is a relatively good fit, but where you'll want to make a few changes or improvements or renovations after you purchase it.

If you are purchasing a $300K home and you plan to paint a few rooms and maybe change out some light fixtures... you probably don't need to think too hard about the cost of your planned renovations relative to your offer price.

But... if you are purchasing a $500K home and you plan to remodel the kitchen, remodel a bathroom, replace most of the flooring and most of the light fixtures... you probably should consider the cost of your planned renovations relative to your offer price.

In this second scenario, you might end up spending another $100K... on top of the $500K purchase price of the home.  As you might imagine, these renovations will not cause your home's value to increase to $600K.  You will certainly see an increase in your home's value given those renovations, but you will have invested more in your home than it will be worth even after those renovations.

If you purchase the home for $500K and spend $100K on renovations, you've put $600K into the home.  If it is then worth $550K, you might be comfortable with that overall scenario if you plan to spend the next 10 years in the home.

But... perhaps you'd rather try to pay $475K for the house, and then spend $100K on renovations, to have a total of $575K in the house... with the home that it will then still be worth $550K after renovations.

We typically can't have a firm sense of the cost of your renovations, nor the home's value after those renovations are complete –– but the more renovations you plan to make, the more time we should spend discussing these numbers to guide your potential offer terms.

 

It's getting to be that time of year... we're into November now with Thanksgiving just a few weeks away. 

Our market, like many markets, sees fewer homes coming on the market between about November 15 and January 1.  Home sellers typically don't want to put their homes on the market over the holidays... and home buyers often don't want to move over the holidays.

So...

SELLERS – If you are selling your home over the next few months... you might see less buyer interest... but those buyers are likely to have fewer houses from which to choose.

BUYERS – If you hope to buy a house over the next few months... you will likely see fewer options of new listings hitting the market... but if there is one of interest, you will likely have less competition from other buyers.

We don't see a complete drop off in new listings or in home sales in November, December, January and February... but they are typically the four slowest months of the year in our local real estate market.

While we might currently be seeing more new townhouses being built (and bought) than detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, when we look at Rockingham County's housing stock... there is a greater share of detached homes here than there are across Viriginia.

Looking at all of Rockingham County's housing stock... 73% of existing homes are detached single family homes.

In Virginia, only 61.5% of the housing stock is comprised of detached single family homes.

Many of the recently proposed new housing developments in the City and County are for townhouses and/or apartments –– so we might slowly see the figures above shift over time, but for now, we have quite a few more detached homes (proportionally) in our overall housing stock than is seen when looking at the entirety of Virginia.

 

I think this has been a popular topic of conversation for all 21 of the years that I have been working in real estate here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

The chart above (Population Growth) is pulled from the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan. 

Over the past 30 years (1990 – 2020) we have seen an average of a 1.26% growth in the County population per year.  This has resulted in an increase of 26,275 people.

Over the next 30 years (2020 – 2050) we are estimated to see an average of a 0.74% growth in the County population per year.  This will result in an increase of 20,724 people.

So, per the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan... it seems that we will be growing more slowly over the next 30 years (by percentage and by number) as compared to the growth we have seen over the past 30 years.

Is this 0.74% per year the right amount of growth?  I imagine there are some who would say it's just right... some who would say it's way too much... and some who might say it is not enough.

 

Most buyers of new homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are buying attached homes... though just barely.

52% of new home buyers (191) bought attached homes over the past year

48% of new home buyers (178) bought detached homes over the past year

Two reasons come to mind as to why we are seeing just as many (or slightly more) buyers buying new attached homes as detached homes...

[1]  It's what the builders are building.

[2]  The price point of attached homes is more affordable.

Here's how the median sales price of detached and attached homes compare over the past 12 months...

Detached Homes = Median Sales Price of $406,250  ($210/SF)

Attached Homes = Median Sales Price of $328,955  ($198/SF)

Moving forward, I think both of these dynamics (what is being built, price of each) will cause plenty of future buyers of new homes to be buying townhouses.

Who knows... within a few years we might be seeing 60% to 70% of new home buyers buying attached homes instead of detached homes.

(Attached Homes = townhouses, duplexes, condos)

From a local home inspector...

"The purpose of a home inspection is to provide the consumer with comprehensive information to help them make a confident and informed decision when buying a home.  As we complete your home inspection we have two main goals. Our first goal is to inform you about the status of the structure and systems of the home. The second goal is to explain the unique future maintenance needs of the home."

You will learn more about the home you are purchasing through the home inspection process –– and you will learn about deficiencies that might exist in the home –– and you will learn about upgrades you might make in the home.

So, is it reasonable for a buyer of a resale home to ask a seller to fix or address every item mentioned in a home inspection report? 

Usually, no, that is not reasonable.

In addition to deficiencies found in a home, a home inspector is likely also going to be referencing...

1.  Upgrades you might make to the home later.

2.  Ways to make your home more energy efficient.

3.  Parts of the home that were to code at the time it was built but that would be done differently now.

So, if you're buying a home, don't plan to ask a seller to address every little thing in an inspection report.

Focus, instead, on the most significant deficiencies in the home that would be the most costly or cumbersome for you to address after settlement.

 

Clearly, if you are making an offer on a house, it's because you want to buy that house... so, you probably hope that the seller will accept your offer, rather than hold onto your offer for a day or two hoping to receive other more favorable offers.

Thus, choose your offer terms wisely...

Let's consider a house listed for $475K and the following two offers you might make...

An interesting dynamic in the Rockingham County real estate market is related to farmland and trees.

Most land that that becomes a residential neighborhood is used as farmland before becoming a neighborhood.  Thus, there usually aren't any trees on the property.  This makes it easy to build the roads and houses – but means it takes a while for any trees that are planted by builders or homeowners to become established.

Many home buyers love the feel of an established neighborhood, often because of the trees and other landscaping that give the neighborhood a comfortable feel.

But yet, many home buyers also prefer newer homes that won't need updates and renovations.

Thus, some home buyers find themselves choosing between...

1.  Newer home in a newer neighborhood with young trees and not much of a feel of an established neighborhood.

2.  Older (20+ years) home in a more established neighborhood with mature trees and landscaping.

Which would you choose? 

 

A homeowner selling their home, especially if they have lived in it for a while, is often likely to only see small updates that might be needed in the home – and would likely describe them as elective...

You can learn a lot from looking at the photos of a house that was just listed for sale.

But, you can't...

1.  Hear traffic on a nearby road.

2.  Smell the odors of a nearby factory.

3.  Feel the texture of the walls.  (yes, a bit of a stretch)

4.  Taste the well water.  (also, a bit of a stretch)

For these and plenty of other reasons, it is crucial that we go see a house in person to fully understand a house with all of your senses. 

Driving by the house will get you one step closer to a fuller understanding of the house – but seeing the house (walking around and through) is our best bet.

Most contracts (and buyers and sellers) have been making it to closing within about 30 to 45 days.

Which means, that if you decide today that you're going to sell your house, and we have it on the market by the end of October, and it is under contract within 7 to 10 days (by Nov 7 or Nov 10) a buyer might be proposing a closing date of December 15 or 20 or 30.

So, as much as it might seem like there is plenty of time left this year... if you are hoping to sell your home this year, or before the holidays, you will likely need to start putting plans in place now (over the next week) to get your house on the market.

You can, of course, list your home in November or December and plan to close in January or February –– but if you want to have it sold and closed by the holidays, or by the end of the year, the time to act is now! 

Wahoo!  An exciting new listing just hit the market.  You are excited to go see it and will definitely consider making an offer.  You know it will likely be a popular listing, with the potential for multiple offers, but you have already been pre–approved for your mortgage, you are going to see the house on the first day it is on the market, and you will likely make an offer on the second day that it is on the market.

That should be enough, right?

Well, maybe.

Sometimes, an offer shows up that is strong enough to cause a seller to adjust how they were otherwise planning to receive and consider offers.

If an offer comes in on the fictional house above on the afternoon of the first day that it is on the market... that is above asking price, cash, without an inspection, with a closing to take place in 20 days, with the seller able to rent back for free for up to three months...

1.  Who could blame the seller for going ahead and accepting this very (very!) strong offer.

2.  Who could blame buyers if they are disappointed when they find out on the second morning that the house is on the market that they are too late to submit an offer.

So...

1.  Buyers – Be willing to make a strong offer, quickly, if you want to try to get the seller to respond before considering other offers.

2.  Also, Buyers – Know that an early offer from a motivated buyer might very quickly eliminate your opportunity to compete to buy a house that you really like – so, make an offer just as quickly as you are ready to do so.