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History Repeats Itself: The Cyclical Nature of Student Housing in Harrisonburg |
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Harrisonburg has a tremendous over-supply of student housing, but it's not the first time! I've been engaged in some fascinating reading (thanks JGFitzgerald!) over the past day or so --- a Citywide Housing Analysis for Harrisonburg, Virginia compiled by S. Patz & Associates, Inc in 2005. Yes, it's becoming dated, but it provides some valuable insights into the history of our local real estate market. Here are a few statements that are quite interesting within the current JMU enrollment and student housing context: "Official JMU projections of 112 additional enrollments per year by 2008 suggest a need for no more than 200 new student apartments by 2010." Wow --- and to think that in the past two years, new student housing units have been built to accommodate an additional 3,292 students!?! "In the early-2000's there was a large oversupply of apartments catering to students. Development of condominium units for students aggravated the market for rental student units. Both markets are largely distinct, and only a few of the apartment complexes that attract students also attract young professionals and/or families. Since the early-2000's, apartments catering to students have also turned to other markets, such as the emergent immigrant population who can utilize the large numbers of bedrooms in student apartments, and the oversupply of student apartments has been reduced." This is interesting --- in the early 2000's there was an oversupply, then things were back to being balanced by 2005 (date of report), and we again have a significant oversupply in 2009. This report identifies immigrants as a population that filled the vacant student housing in the early 2000's. Will we see that again? And if not, who will fill the vacancies? "In the 2000/01 school year, 1,700± beds (or 450 to 550 apartment units) for JMU students were reported by S. Patz & Assoc. to be vacant and available. This total had been reduced to 1,000± beds in 2001/02, as student enrollments increased, and as a number of mature former student apartment units were taken off the market and made available for very moderate-income poultry and construction workers who previously occupied less attractive or more crowded housing." Again --- this begs the question of who will fill the anticipated 2,470 empty "beds" this coming fall that are/were intended for college students. If you're interested, there is a lot more very interesting data in this 129-page Citywide Housing Analysis report published in 2005. I'll be taking a look at some additional sections in the days to come. Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
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scott@funkhousergroup.com
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