Will housing inventory levels improve next year?


Will housing inventory levels improve next year?
By Scott Rogers • November 2, 2017
Short Answer = I don't think so. Several buyers who I have been chatting with lately have expressed dismay at the low inventory levels, which results in very few options for them to consider in their home search. The question inevitably comes up as to whether inventory levels are likely to improve next year. The graph above shows that at inventory levels have been consistently declining over the past four years as measured by how many homes are on the market at the start of the main buying season, which I'm defining as April in the graph above. So -- after seeing a 24% decline in inventory levels between April 2016 and April 2017 -- are we likely to see inventory levels start increasing again in 2018? Again, I don't think so, and here's why.... To reverse this trends of declining inventory we would need one or more of the following to happen in our local market.... A decline in buyer interest / activity -- which only seems to be happening (slightly) because of lower inventory levels. A decrease in the rate of people moving to this area. Seems unlikely -- we're one of the fastest growing areas in Virginia. An increase in the rate of people moving out of this area. Seems unlikely -- it's pretty nice here, unemployment is low, quality of life is high, etc. More new homes being built. This is not currently happening at a very rapid pace in and around Harrisonburg. Sellers selling who don't have to buy. This could be older homeowners who are moving into a retirement community, or people selling to then build themselves a home on their own land, etc. Again -- none of the changes above seem likely to happen at a scale that would allow inventory levels to see much, if any, of an increase next year. As such, I am expecting we'll see relatively similar inventory levels next Spring and Summer. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news -- as always, just trying to give folks realistic expectations for the future. Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 21, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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