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Home Sales Rise Yet Again In October 2018 |
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 Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home in Highland Park by visiting 4350BrownRoanLane.com. Now, on to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... VIDEO OVERVIEW: Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market. Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market...  As shown above --
Now let's look at the monthly home sales visually...  This past June and July were stellar months of home sales -- with the highest sales level seen in the past three years. Then, sales fell in August and September, and it was seeming that rising interest rates might have finally started to affect buyer behavior. But then, October. We saw a sharp increase in home sales in October -- the strongest month of October home sales in the past several years. So -- where do we go from here? Will we have the best November of late? Or will we slip back into the middle of the pack? Regardless of how November goes, it seems 2018 will be a strong year...  We've seen 1,117 home sales in the first ten months of 2018 -- this is the strongest first ten months of the year seen anytime in the past six years, not all of which are shown above. It seems, thus, that we're likely to get back up to a 1300/year pace of homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Can it happen? What is your prediction?  As mentioned earlier, even though the market-wide median sales price has increased 9% in 2018 -- that is not an indication that home values are up 9%. There are more single family homes selling this year than last, which is affecting the overall median sales price. The graph above, then, is a reasonable substitute for understanding value trends in our local market. When we look only at single family homes (not duplexes, townhouses or condos) we see that the median sales price has increased 2.4% over the past year. This seems much more sustainable than a 9% increase.  In some ways, it is surprising that home values aren't increasing more than they are. We have been in an increasingly strong seller's market for the past two years -- with more and more buyers fighting over fewer and fewer seller's homes on the market at any given point. Certainly, "enough" sellers are selling -- as the total number of closed sales is increasing -- but strong buyer activity is keeping overall listing inventory down at most times of the year.  Why do I think we'll finish out the year with 1300 or so home sales? Partly because of the strong month of contract activity seen in October. A total of 111 contracts were signed in October, most of which should turn into closed sales by the end of the year. As a side note, winter is coming. Contract activity is likely to slow over the next four months.  And there are those inventory levels -- low and getting lower. We've seen an 11% decline in the number of homes on the market over the past year -- and inventory levels didn't rise all that much during the Spring / Summer markets this year. So, basically, as fast as sellers are listing their homes, buyers are snapping them right up -- in most price ranges, in most locations, etc., etc.  And finally -- mortgage interest rates. Most folks don't pay with cash -- they finance part of their home's purchase price -- and it is getting more expensive to do so these days. We have seen a 23% increase (from 3.94% to 4.86%) in the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate over the past year. This means that today's buyers are paying more per month than they would have last year, for the same home, even before we start calculating how that sales price would have increased over the past year. I'll pause there, for now. As usual, you can download the full report as a PDF, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market And a few tips for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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