Despite Slower November, Home Sales Still Stronger Than Last Year


Despite Slower November, Home Sales Still Stronger Than Last Year
By Scott Rogers • December 11, 2018
Before we dive into this month's market report, check out this featured home by visiting 819GreenbriarDrive.com. Now, on to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... VIDEO OVERVIEW: Click here to watch (and listen) to my overview of the market. Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market... As we can see above... Home sales were a bit (17%) slower in November 2018 as compared to last November. Only 83 buyers bought (and sellers sold) compared to 100 last November. Despite that November decline, we have still seen more (3.62%) homes this year (1,201) than last (1,159) when looking at 11 months of data. The median sales price has increased 7.89% in 2018 to $212,000 -- compared to $196,500 last year. Homes are selling 27% faster this year -- with a median of 24 days on the market, compared to a median of 33 days on the market last year. This has been a bit of an odd year, as shown above. We have seen quite a few months of new "highs" for monthly home sales. They aren't all shown above, but you can see that June, July and October were the highest such months in the past several years. But then you have months such as November -- where we fell to one of the lower such months of sales in recent years. So -- what about December? I'll guess we'll end up around 90 or so home sales -- maybe 95 -- or even 100? This graph shows each month of home sales stacked upon the previous months -- and you can see that we're beating every recent year except 2016 when you look at home sales through November -- shown in a light brown color. It seems almost certain that we'll beat the 1,261 total we saw last year -- but will we get up to 1300 home sales this year? We'd need 99 home sales in December! As I have mentioned in a few recent market reports -- the 7% (or so) increase that we're seeing in the median sales price for all residential sales might not mean that homes are selling for 7% more than they were last year. That 7% rise seems to be more a result of a greater number of (higher priced) single family homes selling in 2018 as compared to how many sold in 2017. Read more about this phenomenon here. That said, the graph above might give us a better idea of value trends -- where we see that the median sales price of single family homes has increased 2% over the past year. It's a good time to be a seller right not -- and not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. As shown above, the supply of buyers is steady -- with right around 650 buyers buying in a six month period. But at the same time, the number of sellers (and their homes) in the marketplace keeps on declining -- giving those buyers fewer and fewer options from which to choose. Hmmm -- 99 home sales in December might not be completely realistic after all. As shown above, only 72 buyers (and sellers) signed contracts in November 2018. This, combined with some lingering October contracts, means we're probably more likely to see 80 - 90 home sales in December. And -- for you current or near future sellers out there -- buyer activity is likely to stay a bit lower over the next few months. A strong surge of buyers is likely to return in March. Well -- we dropped below 300 homes for sale again this month -- and we're likely to dip a bit lower as we move through December, January and February. Last year it took until March to rise above 300 homes for sale. So -- if buyers don't want to buy in the Winter, it seems that sellers also might not want to sell. Unless you're paying cash -- it will cost you more (in your monthly housing payment) to buy a house now as compared to a year ago. The average mortgage interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has risen almost an entire percentage point (from 3.90% to 4.81%) over the past year. It ticked down slightly in November -- and hopefully we'll (somehow?!) stay below 5% as we roll into the new year. I'll pause there, for now. As usual, you can download the full report as a PDF, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market And a few tips for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. BUYERS -- it can be difficult and frustrating to buy right now -- make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com And if YOU are ready to get the process started, simply contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 21, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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