Archive for February 2019
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How Much Price Negotiation Should Home Buyers Expect? |
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 If you're looking to buy a home under $250K, should you only consider homes priced at or below $250K? Probably not - some sellers of homes priced above $250K will negotiate down to $250K. Should you look at homes priced above $500K? Probably not - most sellers of homes priced above $500K probably will not negotiate down to $250K. Both of those are probably obvious to most home buyers, but how do we understand the negotiability dynamics between those two mostly obvious statements? The data above is a first look at that puzzle - with some guide rails. Basically, I looked at one year of City/County home sales, but limited it to homes with 1500+ square feet, 3+ bedrooms, 2+ bathrooms, on less than an acre, between $200K and $400K. So, not a canvas of the entire market -- but a pretty reasonable chunk of the middle of our market not likely to be thrown off by lots of investors (lower priced or attached properties) or high end buyers (high priced properties). And - after that intro - here's (some of) what we find...
So - hopefully that provides some guidance as to what you might expect as a buyer. If you see a home listed for 11% above your budget -- there is likely only a 2% chance that the seller will sell at a price that works for you -- or, put another way, you might have to find 98 such properties (where the seller won't come down 10%) before you find the 99th and 100th where they will. Happy home shopping -- and negotiating! | |
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Aging In Your Current Home With Community Support |
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 Have you, or a co-worker, friend, neighbor, parent, lived in their home for many years? Are they starting to face challenges of keeping up with home maintenance, or accessibility of some aspects of their home based on their age or mobility? Here's an organization you might want to check out...  Valley Village (valleyvillagehbg.org) A member of the Village to Village Network From their website... The mission of Valley Village is to provide neighborhood members with community-building activities, and home-based services thereby promoting independence, convenience, safety and well-being, for those who wish to live in their own homes in a multi-generational community. The purpose of Valley Village is to ensure that all individuals have access to services needed to live independently in their community as long as possible. Find more out about Valley Village by visiting valleyvillagehbg.org. | |
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Mortgage Interest Rates Are Falling, Falling, Falling |
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 In what can only be described as good news for home buyers -- mortgage interest rates keep declining! In November 2017 interest rates had climbed to 4.94% and it seemed we'd soon be seeing 5.something% rates. But then they started to decline again, now all the way back down to 4.35%. If you're planning a home purchase this Spring, this is an extremely enticing time to lock in your interest rate! | |
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49 More Detached Homes Coming To The Crossings |
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 The Crossings, a neighborhood of detached homes straddling the City/County line, will be expanding - from 35 homes to 84 homes - after a slight rezoning of the land by Rockingham County. The first phase of the neighborhood included 35 building lots, most of which have been built upon and the homes sold. The new phase will include 49 home sites, with 40 of them in the County and nine in the City. Here's the site plan for the new phase...  Here is a somewhat recent aerial view of the area -- from about two years ago -- when many but not all of the homes had been built...  Dick Blackwell with Blackwell Engineering works with the developer and indicated at the Board of Supervisors meeting that the houses will cost about $200,000. That does seem possible given recent sales at The Crossings, many of which have been close to $200K...  Looking a bit further at the metrics, we find that the median sales price of homes at The Crossings in 2018 was $226K...  After lots of news of new rentals, condos and townhouses, it's nice to hear that some modestly sized/priced detached homes will be built in the near future as well! | |
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Rezoning Requested For 86 Condos on Boyers Road |
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 Randy Cosner (Cosner Investments, LLC) is requesting the rezoning of 5.9 acres of a 10 acre parcel on Boyers Road to allow for 86 condominiums to be built. The property is currently zoned A2, and the proposed zoning is Planned Multi-Family. This would allow for 86 condos with 1, 2 or 3 bedrooms, for a total of 186 bedrooms in four separate buildings surrounding common areas. The full rezoning request can be found here. Here's what the proposed site plan would look like...  Per the rezoning application, the development would be called Locust Grove Village and would "provide a unique living opportunity for those inclined toward the beneficial aspects of community and socialization in a rural setting." Here is a rendering of what the buildings might look like...  A few details from the developer's narrative include... "Specifically, Locust Grove Village will house no more than 86 individual condominiums containing a mixture of 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units. Units will be clustered into four buildings of 20-22 units apiece, with a majority of these units having a ‘townhouse' style and appearance. Building ‘corners' will be comprised of six condominium units served by a common entry and stairwell. Each pair of buildings will encircle a central green, with each townhouse-style condo having direct access through their own private courtyard. Half of the corner units will have balconies/courtyards that face the common green (interior), while the other half will face the exterior." "The central greens will be improved with tasteful landscaping (mixture of trees and shrubbery), paved walkways, a central gazebo, charcoal grills, and benches, intended to promote resident interaction and sense of community. If desired by residents, allowances will be made for community gardens, to be maintained by the residents themselves, and thereby promoting a sense of pride and ownership within the community. Pedestrian connectivity between the greens will be provided through walkways and a mid-block crosswalk through the parking area." "In sum, Locust Grove Village is intended to serve a growing desirability for attractive, communal living opportunities within a rural setting. Through emphasis of common areas and promotion of interaction between residents, Locust Grove Village will position itself as the premier condominium-based community within Rockingham County." The Rockingham County Planning Commission reviewed this rezoning request at their January 2019 meeting. Their main concerns, per the minutes, seemed to be:
The rezoning request was unanimously tabled at the Planning Commission meeting. We'll have to wait and see if the request will be reviewed and discussed again, but at this point these condos "might be" built -- because the rezoning has not yet been approved. | |
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32 Townhouses To Be Built on Boyers Road |
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 Randy Cosner is planning to build 32 townhouses on 2.741 acres on Boyers Road as shown above. Below is the intended site layout, which includes common areas with a fenced tot lot playground and a picnic area with benches and a fire pit.  The townhouses are to be built similar to the rendering below. Of note -- it is not clear whether these townhouses will be sold to individual buyers, sold to investors to then be rented, or retained by the builder to be rented. The townhouses pictured below are located on Leslie Court, located off of Vine Street, near its intersection with North Main Street. All 24 townhouses built on Leslie Court were purchased by investors (a total of perhaps four entities) and all 24 townhouses are now rented.  If you have driven by this location (Boyers Road) anytime recently you will have seen that all of the trees have cleared to prepare for construction. | |
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156 Apartments To Be Built on Reservoir Street |
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 Well, it looks like another 156 apartments will be built on Reservoir Street, just outside of the City limits in Rockingham County. The Board of Supervisors recently approved a rezoning of this 6.302 acres to essentially be a second phase of the Robinson Park apartments immediately adjacent to this new project. Per the Daily News Record the 156 apartment complex will be comprised of:
Apparently, the complex will also include a clubhouse and outdoor pool.  Further review of the minutes from the January 23, 2019 meeting of the Board of Supervisors offers these insights...
So, there you have it. More apartments coming soon on Resevoir Street... which may or may not make Harrisonburg a place young alums can call home for decades... | |
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Making Harrisonburg A Place Young Alums Can Call Home For Decades |
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 I recently lamented that most new housing that is being built is student housing or rentals -- as opposed to homes that can be purchased by homeowners. And the "why" is because of the highest and best use for development land... "So long as there are student housing, rental housing or mixed use developers willing to buy land at a high price/acre AND/OR as long as owners of development land are willing to hold out for that high price/acre -- then land is not likely to be sold to developers or builders at a price/acre that would allow them to build homes for buyers to buy." Katherine took it one step further (thanks Katherine!) to draw home the "so what" of my observation... "Students are a lucrative and seemingly inexhaustible market, but it's short-sighted not to give some thought to how we can keep more young alumni in the community after graduation. Attractive, affordable starter homes are a piece of this puzzle, as are businesses and services geared toward professionals rather than college students. (And good jobs are, too, of course.) Excessive catering to the student population will make Harrisonburg a town people "remember fondly," not one they call home for decades." I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment -- I want Harrisonburg to be a town that young alums can call home for decades. As Katherine points out, this is not just about housing - but housing is certainly a big part of it. It is not immediately clear what this could / should mean for the City of Harrisonburg -- but I do think we could look back 10 years from now and lament the fact that there weren't enough new developments built to allow for young alums to settle into jobs, buy their first home, and start establishing this as their home for decades. | |
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Local Real Estate Market Holds Steady in January 2019 |
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 I hope you are finding time to enjoy this one sunny day this week - amidst clouds, rain and snow the rest of the week. Perhaps the bright news in this update on the real estate market will buoy your spirits when the clouds return tomorrow. :-) But before we dive into the data, be sure to check out the home pictured above, an immaculate brick Colonial in Highland Park, by visiting 4105LucyLongDrive.com. Oh, and as per my usual habits, you can skip right to a PDF download of the full market report here, or read on for my color commentary...  OK - starting off with an evaluation of the market as a whole, the chart above shows us that the exact same number of buyers (63) bought in January 2019 as bought in January 2018. Thus, it was the slowest month of the year - but exactly as slow as things started last year. (1) When we look at a longer timeframe (Feb 2018 - Jan 2019) we see that 1,303 buyers bought homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- which marks a 3.74% increase in buyer activity as compared to the previous year. (2) The median sales price of the homes that have sold in the past 12 months was $211,500 -- which is 5.81% higher than the median sales price during the prior year. So, perhaps prices are on the rise. Or, perhaps different homes are selling. Read on for more on this. (3) Homes are selling quickly -- QUICKLY! -- with a median "days on market" of 25 days over the past year, a 24% drop from 33 days the prior year. Now, let's break things down between detached homes and attached homes. Attached homes are townhouses, duplexes and condos...  There is a good bit to soak in here, on the chart above, as well. (1) The 942 buyers who bought detached homes over the past 12 months contributed to 5.25% more buyer activity -- for this type of property -- as compared to the previous 12 months. (2) The median sales price of those 942 detached homes was $228,000 -- a whole (not actually that exciting) 1.33% higher than the $225,000 value one year prior. (3) Talk about consistency -- 361 buyers bought attached homes (townhomes, duplexes and condos) in the past 12 months -- exactly the same number as during the previous 12 months. (4) The median sales price of those 361 attached homes was $167,811 -- a full 4.88% higher than the $160,000 value one year prior.  There it is, folks, the start of something great -- maybe? While it's true that January is the slooooowest month of the year for home sales AND this past January was the sloooooowest January seen in the past few years -- it is also true that last year was a near record breaking year of home sales, and we also started out with only 63 home sales in January 2018. So -- stay tuned -- perhaps this will be another vibrant year of sales activity for the local real estate market.  Staying steady - that's all I wish for our real estate market sometimes. The graph above shows a rolling 12 month value for the median sales price and the number of home sales taking place in our local market. You'll note that homes have been selling at a pace of around 1300-ish homes per year for the past six or so months -- and we've been hovering around the $210K-$212K mark for median sales prices. Staying steady-ish isn't too bad. I'd be happy with a 0% - 2% increase in the pace of home sales and a 2% - 3% increase in the price of home sales this year. We'll have to wait a few more months to get a better sense of if that is where we're headed.  If asked, I think home values have risen by 2% over the past year, and the graph above is why I'm sticking to that number. If you look at all home sales in the area (attached and detached) you'll come up with a higher increase in the median sales price -- but I believe the change in the median sales price of detached homes is the best indicator of trends in market value -- and there was a 2% increase in the median sales price of detached homes between 2017 and 2018. Stay tuned to see how we fare in 2019 as more data keeps coming in.  It's a great time to be a seller! As shown above, while the number of buyers in the market has stayed relatively consistent over the past (almost) two years, the number of homes on the market at any given point has continued to decline steadily. As such, this has become more and more of a seller's market. Homes are selling quickly and thus buyers must be ready to pounce on the home of their dreams when it is listed for sale. More on this at the bottom of this note.  On this graph it might be most interesting to look backwards in order to look forwards. After a predictable mid-80's month of contract activity in January, it seems likely (based on history) that we'll see around that many buyers sign contracts to buy homes in February. But after that, look out! Buyer activity usually starts in earnest in March and April, where you'll see a 45% (ish) increase in buyer activity between Jan/Feb and Mar/Apr. The big question this year would be whether we really will / could have anywhere near as stellar of a month as we had last May for contract activity. Maybe not??  It is quite possible that inventory levels have dropped just about as far as they can possibly go. Over the past year we saw a seasonal rise and fall back to a just-below-300 inventory level as we started out January and February. It seems likely we'll get back up to a 340-350 level in the summer months, but absent a large new construction development starting in the area, it seems unlikely we'll get back up to 400 homes for sale at any given point in 2019.  I said it earlier, but I'll repeat it. Homes are selling quickly! OK -- not all homes -- don't get overly distressed if your home is not under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale -- but quite a few (54%) of the homes that do sell are indeed under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. If your home is not, let's talk about why, and what we might need to do to get it under contract within the next 30 - 60 days.  Refreshingly, after staying above 4% all year long in 2018 - and rising as high as 4.86% in October - they finally started to decline again and have continued to do so over the past few months. We're not back (barely) under 4.5% which is a nice relief for buyers in the near term. I'll pause there now, and commend any of you voracious readers of market updates who made it this far. :-) Read even more (!!) in the full PDF here, or feel free to shoot me an email with your thoughts, perspectives or questions on the market. And finally, a few quick links for you if you are thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Selling A Property Occupied By A Tenant |
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 Do you own a property in Harrisonburg occupied by a tenant? When you are ready to sell it, how will you go about that process? Will you list the property for sale while the tenant is still living in the property?
Will you list the property for sale after the tenant has moved out?
OK -- admittedly, I'm spelling out the worst case scenario of both sides of this issue -- hopefully making it clear(er) that there is no sure-fire easier, faster, better way to sell an investment property. There can be challenges in listing the property for sale while the tenant is still occupying the property, and likewise, if you list the property for sale after they move out. We'll need to work together to determine the best game plan for your property, perhaps considering...
It doesn't have to be difficult to sell a property occupied by a tenant, but we'll want to approach the process thoughtfully. Let me know if you're planning to sell an investment property in 2019. | |
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Should I Wait For A Better House To Come On The Market? |
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 This is a common question at this time of year -- as new listings start to trickle onto the market -- but before the deluge (hopefully!?!?) of new listings in March and April. As a buyer in a low inventory environment, you (hopefully) know that you may have to compromise on some of what you're hoping for in your next home. Otherwise, you may be sitting here a year from now, still not having moved forward with a home purchase. But how much (!!??!!) should you compromise -- that is the tough question at this time of year. After seeing absolutely NO new listings that would work for you in November, December and January... ...when a new listing pops on the market in February that *could* work -- sort of -- but would requirement some relatively major compromises in areas A, B and C -- what do you do?? Do you go ahead and pull the trigger because it is much better than anything we've seen in months? Do you commit to buy because you're just tired of waiting around and you want to get this home buying show on the road? Do you decide to wait and then kick yourself a few months from now when we haven't found anything better for you to buy? These are not easy questions to answer -- but we can and should and will talk it through on a house by house basis. We'll be evaluating how far off the mark the house really is -- and how likely we think it is that another, better, option will come on the market in the coming months. So, don't just buy *anything* that comes on the market just because we've passed through a desolate winter without many new listings -- but at the same time, don't let a good (or good enough) option pass you by! Easier said that done, right? ;-) | |
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Harrisonburg, The City With The Planned Future, Plans Their Future |
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 City Council members and top City administrators and planners invested time in planning a future for the City of Harrisonburg at a three day retreat last weekend, with an eye towards Harrisonburg 20 years from now -- in 2039. That vision includes establishing Harrisonburg as the "capital of the Shenandoah Valley". Extensive conversations took place about education (including the new high school) and a comprehensive housing plan (including affordable housing and homelessness). Read much, much more about the retreat, conversations, outcomes and priorities over at The Citizen... If you care about the future of the City of Harrisonburg, read the article above, and give some thought to how you can be an active part of making the future of Harrisonburg brighter. | |
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Do Trees Obscure The Front Of Your House? |
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 Many sellers list their homes in the Spring or Summer, which is often ideal for the timing of their move, and aligns well with when most buyers are in the market. However -- some houses are very difficult to be seen (and photographed) in the Spring and Summer because of large trees in the front yard. So -- if you're thinking of selling this Spring or Summer, and you have trees (especially large house-obscuring trees) we should discuss taking some exterior photos SOON rather than waiting until later when we can't see your house at all. Certainly, the grass isn't as green as it could be right now, and the flowers aren't blooming -- but it could be nice to see your house in the main view of your future real estate listing -- rather than just a tree. I'm happy to come by to shoot a few photos of the front of your house this month to give us better options for marketing your home a few months from now. Just drop me a link so that we can coordinate the details. | |
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It Is Hard To Find a City Home Under $200K These Days |
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 I've said this (it's hard to find a City home for under $200K these days) in about 10 different ways over the past year using data. In conversation with a fellow Realtor yesterday, while inside a house I'll reference in a moment, we reflected on this reality. If you're looking to buy a home in the City of Harrisonburg and were hoping to have a budget of $200K -- you'll have some difficulty doing so. Just a few (4 or 5?) years ago we recalled decent single family homes selling for $180K - $200K in the City. Now days, if a home is price under $200K it is likely either tiny, or still needs some updates. OK - reverting to what is most natural to me when thinking about real estate - here is the data to back up our observation... Detached homes sold in the City between under $200K with 1000+ SF...
So, it's not QUITE as terrible as I described above (data saves the day from my extreme rhetoric) but there has been a significant (41%) decline in sub-$200K homes selling (or able to be purchased) in the City of Harrisonburg In fact, today, there are only two such homes currently for sale... I'll be listing another sub-$200K home (just barely under that price point) later today -- and I expect it may sell relatively quickly. Buyers are hungry for homes in this affordable price range and there just aren't too many options any longer. Yes, there are plenty of townhouses under $200K, but detached homes are much harder to find in this price range. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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