Home Sales Slow, Prices Inch Higher In First Half of 2019


Home Sales Slow, Prices Inch Higher In First Half of 2019
By Scott Rogers • July 10, 2019
It's hard to believe, but half the year has already flown past! Let's take a few minutes to review some recent trends in the local housing market -- but first... Find out more about this beautiful golf course home above at 241ClaremontAvenue.com. Download a PDF of this month's full market report here. Now, starting with some data packed charts before we get to the colorful graphs... Looking at the market overview above, here's what's popping out to me... June home sales dropped quite a bit (-22%) as compared to last June. That said, you may recall that last June's home sales were ASTONISHINGLY high. You'll see that in a graph below. We saw 625 home sales in the first half of the year - a decline of 4% as compared to the first half of last year. When looking at a full year of home sales, the pace of buyers buying and sellers selling has slipped by only 1.5% over the past year. The median sales price of homes sold in the first half of this year was $219,900 -- a 2% increase from last year's $215,315. Homes are selling 5% faster this year -- or one day faster, as the case may be -- with a "median days on market" of 21 days in the first half of 2019 as compared to 22 days in the first half of last year. Now, let's see how detached home sales compare to the sale of attached homes. Attached homes are townhouses, duplexes and condos... The green chart above is detached home sales, and the orange chart is attached home sales, and here's how things break down... Sales of detached homes were 4% slower in the first half of this year (452 sales) as compared to the first half of last year (470 sales). The median sales price of detached homes in the first half of this year ($232,000) was 1% higher than during the same timeframe last year when the median sales price was $230,000. Looking only at attached home sales, we find 6% fewer sales (173) in the first half of this year as compared to last year (184). The median sales price of these attached homes in the first half of this year was $174,900 -- a full 6% higher than last year when it was $165,000. And now, the pretty graphs... What a roller coaster! As shown above we just experienced the HIGHEST month of May home sales in the past few years, and then the LOWEST month of June home sales in the past few years. So, right, hard to conclude much there -- other than that May and June are some of the busiest months for home sales. Looking ahead, hopefully we'll see a nice mid-range July -- how about 120 or 125 sales? I use the graph above to see how we're doing in the current year as compared to the prior four years. As you can see, the 625 home sales in the first half of this year is about on par (above two, below one) with the past three years when we have ended up with 1250+ home sales. So, if I had to guess, we'll probably see between 1250 and 1300 home sales in total this year. The graph above is the best indicator of overall long term trends. Each data point reflects 12 months of sales data. As you can see, the pace of home sales (orange line) has been declining slightly over the past year -- while the median price of those home sales has been inching upwards to its current level of $214,000. I'm throwing this one (above) in for fun - because I haven't highlighted this fact lately. The median sales price of detached homes is $232,000 thus far in 2019, and was $228,000 in 2018. Both of these median sales prices are/were the highest median sales price we have seen for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- ever! We've come by these prices slowly and steadily over the past five years. Those new contracts, they keep getting signed! A total of 122 properties went under contract in June 2019 as compared to 124 last June -- and when we look at the March-June timeframe, we find 558 contracts this year and 551 last year. As such, this year's Spring/Summer buyers (and, incidentally, sellers) are certainly keeping pace with last year at this point. And what are those buyers buying? Well, it seems that they have fewer, and fewer, and fewer choices at any given point in time. As shown above, current inventory levels (267 homes for sale) are 23% lower than they were a year ago -- and just about as low as we saw inventory levels drop over this past Winter!?! Well priced, well prepared, well marketed new listings are going under contract quickly partially because of how few options buyers have these days. Those buyers who are fortunate enough to secure a contract on one of the few available listings are super fortunate to find astoundingly low mortgage interest rates! Over the past year, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has fallen 18%, down to its current level of 3.73%. I didn't think we'd see rates below 4% after they soared up to 4.5% a year or so ago - but today's buyers are certainly enjoying locking in some low housing payments given these low rates! Let's pause there, folks. Hopefully that gives you a good general sense of what is happening in our local housing market. And as always, if you have follow up questions about YOUR portion of the local housing market - based on price range, neighborhood, property type, etc. - just let me know! SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in just about every price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. BUYERS -- it can be difficult and frustrating to buy right now -- make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com Finally -- if 2019 will be the year when you buy or sell your home, feel free to contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com so we can start talking about a game plan. Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? 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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 21, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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