Home Sales Stable, Median Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County


Home Sales Stable, Median Prices Slowly Rising in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County
By Scott Rogers • September 17, 2019
Summer might not officially end for another six days, but today has certainly has been a nice taste of the cool Autumn days to come. That said, even if the temperatures are starting to cool down, home sales are not yet ready to do so in our local market. Before we take a look at the most recent market trends, take a few minutes to check out this spacious Colonial in Barrington that is pictured above by visiting 2980BrookshireDrive.com. Now, then, let's get down to some overall market stats... First above, lots (and not much at all) to observe here... We've seen almost exactly the same number of home sales in the first eight months of this year (906) as we saw during the first eight months of last year (901). Last year was a strong year of home sales, so we'll certainly settle for just about the same as (and a bit stronger than) last year. Looking back a bit further at a full year of home sales there have been 1,311 closed transactions in the past 12 months -- which is ever so slightly higher than the 1,307 closed transactions in the 12 months before that. So, the strong sales we saw last year are -- continuing. The median sales price is also edging upwards, now rising to $214,900 for all residential sales in the past 12 months in our local market, which is a 2.33% increase over where we were ($210K) a year ago. Homes are selling more quickly this year -- 19% more quickly than last year -- though that only amounts to an adjustment from a median days on market of 26 days down to 21 days. And how about if we break it down between detached homes (almost all purchased by owner occupants) and attached homes (mostly purchased by owner occupants, but also purchased by investors)... Here's what we're finding... There has been a slight increase (+0.64%) in the sale of detached homes over the past year. The median sales price of detached homes has skyrocketed (just kidding...) upward from $229,900 to $230,000. (So, really, not really a change at all.) There has been a slight increase (+0.55%) in the sale of attached homes over the past year. OK - and one actual meaningful change - the median sales price of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) has increased 4.85% over the past year. And now for that pretty visualization of the month to month ebb and flow of home sales... Here (above) we note that every summer is different. Last year (blue line) June was a spectacular month for home sales - with 174 closings - more than seen anytime (ever!) in our local area. This year (the red line) June home sales were mediocre at best. But then, July and August home sales were stronger this summer as compared to last year. Looking ahead to September, I anticipate that we're likely to see around 110 home sales - slightly more than the past two years, but not quite as many as back in 2016. When we pile all of the months on top of each other we can get a clearer view of how the first eight months of this year (Jan-Aug) compares to the first eight months of the past four years. And this is where we find that we have had the best first eight months of anytime in at least the past five years. Given the current trajectory, it seems likely that we'll see at least 1,300 home sales this year. This graph shows us the overall long term trends in local home sales. The green line is the median sales price which has been creeping its way up over the past year. The orange line shows the annual rate of home sales, which has been hovering around 1,300 home sales for the past year. Focusing in just on the detached homes, we see that the median sales price has been increasing anywhere from 2% to 7% per year for each of the past four years. This year we are likely to see another increase in the median sales price somewhere in that range. With steady home sales and increasing sales prices, it's a great time to be a seller. But not as great of a time to be a buyer. As shown above, there have been a relatively stable number of home buyers over the past few years, but the number of homes for sale at any given point has been steadily declining for over three years. Why do I think we'll see 110 home sales in September? Well, partially because 120 home buyers signed contracts in August. This was a higher rate of contract activity than last August and suggests that sales will continue to be relatively strong as we continue into the Fall. And here (above) are those overall inventory numbers. The number of homes for sale has been declining over the past year. We used to see much more of an increase in available inventory during the Spring months but this past year buyers were contracting on new listings almost as fast as they were being listed, which kept the inventory levels low. Here's a startling statistic. Inventory levels have declined 13% over the past year when we look just at detached homes -- but when we look just at attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) we find a shocking 50% decline in the number of homes for sale! It is a tough time to be a first time buyer these days! Finally, mortgage interest rates. If there is any consolation for today's home buyer it is that their mortgage interest rate is likely to be lower than anytime in the past year or longer. Interest rates have fallen 21% over the past year -- from 4.52% to 3.58%. A few final notes and thoughts for those that made it this far... Yes, my market report was a bit behind schedule this month. You had to wait until we were more than halfway September to get a full accounting of August market activity!?! :-) Alas, some time with the family (including two kids who are growing up too quickly!) resulted in a slightly slower release timeline this month. The good news is you might only have to wait about three and a half weeks for my next market report. ;-) If you have questions about the market that I don't regularly cover in these monthly reports, feel free to email me. If you're planning to sell your home this Fall, we should start chatting soon (!!) about timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you are planning to buy in the near future -- again -- be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for today. Have a delightful, pleasant, cool evening! 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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 22, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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