Home Sales, Prices Continue To Rise in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County


Home Sales, Prices Continue To Rise in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County
By Scott Rogers • October 14, 2019
Autumn is here! Leaves are falling. Temperatures are falling. Home sales are not -- and prices are not! So, brew yourself a cup of coffee or tea, and let's take a look at some market trends for our local housing market... But first -- find out more about the new homes (rendering above) being built in McGaheysville by visiting IslandFordEstates.com. Now, onto the data, though you can skip to the full PDF report here. September was another solid month of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above... The 111 home sales seen this September was an 11% improvement over last September. Year-to-date sales of 1,017 homes is just slightly (1.6%) higher than the pace of home sales a year ago. The year-to-date median sales price of $219,900 for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is 3.39% higher than where we were a year ago. Homes are selling 19% faster this year (median of 17 days on the market) as compared to last year (median of 21 days on the market). Breaking things down between detached homes (single family homes) and attached homes (duplexes, townhouses, condos) we see some trends that have been consistent throughout the year... There has been a slight increase (+1.24%) in the pace of detached homes. The median sales price of detached homes has risen 4.44%. There has been a slightly larger increase (+2.55%) in the pace of attached homes. The median sales price of attached homes has jumped quite a bit higher, with a 6.03% year-over-year increase. And let's look a bit closer at the month to month trajectory... A few things stand out above... This past September was better than the prior two months of September. August and September of 2016 were CRAZY! Aside from Aug/Sep of 2016, this year's Aug/Sep were the best in several years. It seems likely that we'll see around 100 - 110 home sales in October. Looking afresh at how this year stacks up to prior years... This has been the fastest (though not by a huge amount) start to the year that we've seen in a while. The 1,017 home sales through the first three quarters of the year surpasses sales seen during the same timeframe in each of the prior four years. So, it seems we may see another year of 1,300+ home sales in our area. Zooming out -- looking at a rolling twelve months of market data -- we find a slow and steady increase in sales prices over the past year, and a slow and steady increase in the pace of home sales. All indications are that this could / might / should continue on into the remainder of 2019 and potentially 2020. Taking one more look (above) at value trends we see that the median sales price of detached homes was a190K five years ago -- and has risen to $240K today. That's a healthy increase in home values, though with annual increases of 2% to 7%, it doesn't seem that the overall increases are as unsustainable as they were during the 2003-2007 market boom. This (October) could be the last strong month of contract activity for a while. Above you'll note that contract signing slowed quite a bit between November and February -- and I expect we'll see something similar this year. The 100 contracts signed in September 2019 was on pace with the 102 seen last September. The new norm seems to be fewer than 300 homes on the market at any given time. Over the past 11 months there have always been fewer than 300 homes for sale -- though no fewer than 255. This is a far cry from where inventory levels were a few years ago, but perhaps this is where we'll be staying for a while. Buyers don't have many options at any given time, and yet, we're on track for a record setting year of home sales. If buyers are sad about declines in inventory levels, they certainly aren't sad about declining interest rates! A year ago, the average 30-year interest rate was 4.72% and now it's down over a full percentage to 3.64%. This certainly makes it an affordable time to lock in a housing payment. A few closing thoughts... The full PDF of my market report has even more data for your reading pleasure. Feel free to download it for a deeper look at local market trends. If you have questions about the market that I don't regularly cover in these monthly reports, feel free to email me. Yes, sales will be slowing as we roll into Novvember and December -- but some of you may still need to or want to sell your home. If so, let's chat sooner than later about timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you are planning to buy in the near future -- again -- be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Happy October! 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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 21, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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