Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019


Home Sales Solid, Contracts Strong, in November 2019
By Scott Rogers • December 10, 2019
Happy December, friends! The end of the year is approaching, so let's take one last partial-year look at our local housing market before we have a full twelve months of data to analyze. You can download my full market report here or read on for the high points... But first -- check out this custom built home on six acres, pictured above, by visiting 3449WildwoodDrive.com. Now, to the data... As shown above... Home sales were up 3.61% in November 2019 -- to 86 sales. Year-to-date home sales are barely (1%) ahead of last year with 1,216 home sales having closed in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The year-to-date median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has risen 4.83% over the past year from $212,250 to $222,500. Homes are selling faster this year -- at a median of 17 days on market -- down 26% from the same time last year. Now, breaking things down between detached and attached homes... As shown above... There has been a 1% increase in the pace of detached (single family) homes over the past year with 947 sales having taken place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The median sales price of these 947 sales was $237,500 -- a 3.71% increase from a year ago. There have been 371 attached home sales (duplexes, townhouses, condos) in the first 11 months of this year, an ever-so-slight (0.27%) increase over the 370 sales seen in the first 11 months of last year. The median sales price of attached homes has increased 4.23% over the past year to $174,900 -- up from $167,805. It can also be helpful to break things down between the City and County... As shown above... The pace of home sales in the City of Harrisonburg has slowed over the past year -- with a 12% decline in sales from 460 sales (in 12 months) to 405 sales. Despite fewer sales, the median sales price has increased 3.68% in the City, rising to $197,000. But in the County... As shown above... Home sales sped up in Rockingham County over the past year -- with a 7.79% increase from 847 sales up to 913 sales in a year's time. The median sales price also increased in Rockingham County, though not quite by as much as in the City -- with a 2.27% increase to a median sales price of $230,000. And now, for the roller coaster of month-by-month home sales activity... I thought we'd see more home sales in November than we did end up seeing. The 86 sales this November was more than we saw last November -- but a good bit below the prior two months of November. Looking forward, I'd expect we'll see around 90 home sales in December. When we stack up each of the past three years -- plus this year -- you'll note that we're almost certainly on track to see 1,300 home sales in 2019 -- and we may very well beat the recent high of 1,313 sales seen back in 2016. When looking (above) at the annual pace of sales (the orange line) you'll note that it has bounced around some over the past year -- but has stayed right around 1300 sales per year. During that same timeframe, however, the median sales price has been slowly (and then more quickly) rising -- up from $212K a year ago up to $219,950 when looking at the most recent 12 months of sales data. Examining a slightly longer (four year) trend we'll see that home sales have stayed right around (just above, just below) 1300 home sales per year -- while the median price of those homes has climbed, on average, 4.5% per year. This increase in prices is certainly higher than the 2% - 3% long term historic "norm" but is much more sustainable than the double digit annual increases we saw during the past real estate boom. Here's (above) a curious one -- and an unfortunate one for buyers -- over the past few years the same number (more or less) of buyers have been buying -- but they have had fewer and fewer and fewer homes from which to choose at any given time. It has caused homes to sell more quickly and buyers to become more frustrated. While closed sales were slower than I expected in November -- buyer activity in contracting on homes was much more active than I expected! We typically see a drop off between September/October and November when it comes to signed contracts -- but this year, we saw just about as many buyers commit to buy homes in November as we had seen in September and October. The 96 contracts signed in November gives me hope that we'll see 84 sales in December, which would get us up to 1,300 home sales for the year. Did someone say inventory levels were low? Yes, inventory levels are low! You'll see that the number of homes on the market (for sale, not under contract) has now dipped down to 236 homes as of the end of November / beginning of December. Again -- a great time to be a seller, but not as exciting of a time to be a buyer. Maybe we need some new construction?? Over the past eight years we have seen more and more home sales -- and fewer and fewer foreclosures. Just two years ago 134 properties were foreclosed upon in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County -- and in the first 11 months of this year that number has only been 54 properties! If, as a buyer, you somehow manage to find a home to buy -- you'll be excited to find extremely low mortgage interest rates. They have been below 4% for the past seven months now, giving you the opportunity to lock in a low housing cost with a fixed rate mortgage. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, you can download a PDF of my full market report here, or feel free to shoot me an email if you have follow up questions. In closing... If you're planning to sell over the next few months -- let's get going now/soon while inventory (your competition) is SUPER low. We can connect at your house or my office to discuss timing, preparations for your house, pricing within the current market and more. Call (540-578-0102) or email me and we can set up a time to meet to chat. If you're planning to (or hoping to) buy a home soon, be ready to be patient and then to ACT QUICKLY! :-) Make it a bit easier for yourself by knowing the market, knowing the process, knowing your buying power, and closely monitoring new listings! That's all for now. Enjoy the remainder of the year, and I'll be back in January with a full re-cap of our local housing market for all of 2019. 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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 22, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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