Home Sales Soar To Surprising New Heights in January 2020


Home Sales Soar To Surprising New Heights in January 2020
By Scott Rogers • February 13, 2020
Time seems to be passing quickly these days, perhaps because my two kids are growing up faster than I can believe - age 15 (also known as "almost driving") and 11 (but 12 next month!). In the vein of time passing quickly, I was surprised to realize this week that the year is essentially 1/8th of the way over now!? How does the time slip by so quickly? Well, if you blinked, and missed January - you missed a LOT of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We'll get to that soon (keep reading) but first I'll point you to a few quick links... Download a PDF of my full market report here. Learn more about this month's featured home, 1930 Rhianon Lane, here. OK - now back to the business at hand - breaking down the latest trends in our local housing market. First, some of the basics... As shown above... There was a ridiculous (I don't use that term too often in my market analysis) increase in the pace of home sales in January 2020. After only 65 home sales last January - there were 97 home sales this January - a 49% increase!? This strong month of sales in January contributed to the 3.36% increase in the annual pace of home sales in our area, which has now increased to 1,352 sales per year. The median sales price of these 1,352 homes was $223,500 - a stronger-than-historically-normal 5.55% increase over where we were a year ago, which was $211,750. Homes are selling faster, and faster, and faster - as the median "days on market" has declined 28% over the past year to a mere 18 days. If we then dive into detached (single family homes) and attached (townhouses, duplexes and condos) we find relatively similar trends... In the breakdown above, you might note that... We've seen a 4.02% increase in the number of detached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - which rose to a total of 983 sales over the past 12 months. This is more than double the number of attached homes that sell in a year. The median sales price of (sold) detached homes has risen to $240,000 over the past year -- a 5.26% increase over the median of $228,000 from a year ago. We've seen a smaller increase in the pace of attached home sales over the past year. The 369 sales seen in the past year was only 1.65% higher than the 363 sales seen the prior year. The median sales price of (sold) attached homes also saw a rather significant (4.88%) increase over the past year and has now risen to $176,000. And now, the visual of what we'll call a crazy January... If there was one thing it seemed we could count on, it was that we'd see between 60 and 70 home sales in January. That's what we've seen for the past three years - and looking back even further (2010-2016) we find even lower months of January sales - 47, 40, 41, 49, 56, 49, 67. But not this year. This year started off with a BANG with a shockingly high 97 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Could this be an anomaly? Will February sales be miserably slow, bringing a January/February average to more normal levels? Maybe. Will every other month this year fall back in line with normal historical trends? Maybe. Or -- will this year be unlike any prior with much higher sales than expected, all year long? Maybe. Stay tuned to see how things shape up after this blockbuster month of sales in January. And look what this crazy January contributed towards... The data above looks at 12 months of data at a time - month after month - to see long term trends. These long term trends have now pushed us to the point of having 3+ year highs in both categories shown - the pace of sales and the price of sales. The median sales price of $223,500 is higher than it has been in many more than three years. Likewise, the annual pace of 1,352 home sales is higher than it has been in over three years. So, it's a wild time right now in the local housing market with steady growth in sales prices and stable but strong numbers of home sales. Circling back to the prior question - will home sales taper off in February? I'm going to lean towards "no" -- given that 95 contracts were signed in January -- many of which will result in February home sales. As an aside - I have been tracking "under contract" data since 2008 -- and there has never been a January with quite so many contracts signed as we saw this January. So, maybe February will be a relatively strong month for home sales as well? And these increases, while one major metric keeps decreasing... Indeed, despite increasing sales, the number of homes on the market at any given time keeps declining. We've seen a 27% year-over-year decline in the number of active listings on the market. So, how do more homes sell if fewer homes are on the market? It seems that plenty of homes are coming on the market for buyers to buy - but because buyers are contracting to buy them so quickly these new listing aren't staying on the market long enough to allow inventory levels to see an effective increase. Speaking of buyers contracting to buy homes quickly... More than half (58%) of homes that have sold in the past year were under contract within 30 days of being listed for sale. Homes are, indeed, selling quickly. The median "days on market" currently stands at 18 days. A nice time to be a home seller if you're hoping not to have a prolonged period of time having buyers coming to view your house. Depending on your home's price, condition, layout, location, it may very well go under contract quickly! And today's buyers are paying lower mortgage interest rates than we've seen in a while... The average mortgage interest rate on a 30 year mortgage has now dropped to 3.51% - the lowest rate seen in over three years. Buyers who are currently buying a home are fixing in lower monthly payments than they would have seen with any recent mortgage interest rate - though that is offset somewhat by the increases in median sales prices over the past few years. OK - that's it for now - I'll be diving into a few more market dynamics in the coming days. But until then... If you're planning to sell your home in 2020 -- let's chat SOON about the best timing for doing so, what you should do to prepare your home for the market, and of course, we'll want to start by analyzing your segment of the market. If you're planning to buy a home in 2020 -- get ready to compete with lots of other buyers in a low inventory housing market. To assist you, sign up to get alerts of new listings, talk to a lender to get pre-approved, and let's get ready to make a mad dash to see new listings as soon as they come on the market! I hope the first 1/8th of the year has treated you well, and that you're just as excited as I am for the remainder of the year. As always -- shoot me an email if you have follow up questions or if you want to chat about your plans to buy or sell. Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 22, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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