Did City Home Prices Really Drop For The First Time Since Spring 2019?


Did City Home Prices Really Drop For The First Time Since Spring 2019?
By Scott Rogers • February 1, 2021
Today's edition of the Daily News Record leads with a story about home prices dropping in the City of Harrisonburg. The headline and much of the article might cause you to misunderstand the bigger picture of what is going on with City home prices. After all, most people would read that and say "oh, City home prices have fallen" when I think most people would come to a different conclusion when examining the actual data and/or if trying to buy a home in the City right now. :-) Let's dig in... The article states that the "median sales price dropped from $214,400 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $205,200 in the fourth quarter of 2020, a difference of 4%" which is from data provided by the Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of Realtors. Here's the problem... The City is sufficiently small such that there aren't many home sales per quarter (only 116 in 2020-Q4) and thus the data can lead you to the wrong conclusions if you are looking at too small of a data set. When looking at just one quarter of data... 2020 Q4 = median sales price of $207,100 2019 Q4 = median sales price of $217,250 Oh my, home prices are falling, right? Technically, yes, when looking just at that window of data. But let's look to see what happens when you expand the data set to include a longer time period to avoid improper conclusions drawn from smaller data sets... Year Ending 2020 Q4 = median sales price of $219,000 Year Ending 2019 Q4 = median sales price of $197,500 Are home prices falling? It seems they have actually risen 11% over the past year. The graph above attempts to offer a slightly clearer picture of home prices. It shows the median sales price over a 12 month period for each of the past (10) quarters. You'll note that the median sales price has been steadily increasing over the past several years. Did it tick downward slightly in 2020 Q4? Yes. By $950. Could it decline further as we get through 2021 Q1 and 2021 Q2? Yes, certainly. Anything is possible. Is it accurate to say that City home prices dropped in 2020 Q4? I guess? Technically? But that seems to be focusing in pretty narrowly and missing the larger picture. But you tell me -- what does the data say to you? Receive Updates by Email Recent Articles: There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer
Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com
Based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS® or its MLS, for the period Jan 1, 2000 through Nov 21, 2024 (unless otherwise noted).
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