Archive for October 2021
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Discover That Your Water Heater Is Leaking BEFORE It Causes Major Damage |
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 Who has had a water heater leak before? (raising my hand) Who has had major damage as a result of a water heater leaking? (thankfully, not raising my hand) Most of us have water heaters tucked away in a closet or the corner of the basement. As a result, if they start to leak (they often will as they get older) it could be hours or days before you realize you have a problem. In that time, the leak may have caused water damage to your floors or personal belongings. Do you have a sump pump in your basement? What would get wet if it stopped working? How often do you check to see if your sump pump is working properly? There are all sorts of reasons why it would be helpful to know about a water leak early - and with Resideo's Wifi Water Leak and Freeze Detector you can know about it early! This handy device...
Consider purchasing a water leak detector to give you a bit more piece of mind that you will know about a potential water leak early and before it causes damage to your home. | |
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The Only Way I Can Try To Get You To Be More Excited About Raking All Of Those Leaves |
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 Are you raking a lot of leaves lately? Or trying to blow them in one direction or another with a leaf blower? Sounds like you have a lot of trees on your property -- and perhaps -- quite a few in front of your house. Here's the one upside to all of those leaves falling down onto your lawn -- we're finally entering the time of year when we can finally see the front of your house! :-) Many sellers list their homes in the spring or summer, which is often ideal for the timing of their move, and aligns well with when most buyers are in the market. However -- some houses are very difficult to be seen (and photographed) in the spring and summer because of large trees in the front yard. So -- while you're raking or blowing leaves this fall -- think about whether you are going to be selling your house this coming spring or summer. If you are, and if you have trees obscuring the front of your house, we should discuss taking some exterior photos SOON rather than waiting until later when we can't see your house at all. | |
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Yes, A Realtor Can Represent You As A Buyer |
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 Home buyers are well served to have a Realtor represent them in their home purchase. So, before you call the listing agent to see a home listed for sale, you should understand a bit more about buyer representation.
In representing you in your home purchase, your buyer's agent would be performing tasks such as:
So -- you can call the listing agent (who is contractually bound to represent the seller's best interests) -- or you can hire a Realtor to represent YOUR best interests as the buyer. Clearly, I recommend the second option. Beyond buyer representation, there is a lot more to know about and think about regarding the home purchasing process. Read more by visiting BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com.  | |
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How Much Are You Really Paying For That House? |
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 A first time buyer looking to buy a detached home (not a townhouse or duplex) under $275K might find themselves considering mostly homes that are at least 50 years old. Said buyer might find the **perfect** home built in 1945 that is "move-in ready" with pretty paint on the walls, and beautiful furnishings, and a well-kept garden, and a quaint covered front porch, and on and on. This buyer is likely head-over-heels excited about the house at this point, as it is priced at $280K, just barely above their target maximum of $275K. But before the buyer signs that contract to make an offer on the house they should probably pause at least for a moment to ask some questions and to consider...
There are plenty of other items that might need updates or replacements in the next three years, but they are all either of a lower cost or elective - though these costs could also add up:
But circling back to the first two items - the roof and heating system - these are pretty much non-negotiable. If either quits working as it should, you'll need to replace it. And if you're maxing out your housing budget with a $275K-$280K home purchase, and then within a year or two you need to spend $8K - $15K on a roof and $8K - $15K on a heating system, that will likely create some financial stress for you. | |
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Only The Top 5% Of Home Buyers In Our Market Pay Over $550,000 |
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 If you are selling a home over $550,000 -- you are only appealing to about 5% of the buying public as per the price distribution of the 1,654 home sales that were recorded in the HRAR MLS in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year. Looking to sell something over $460,000? That will appeal to about 10% of the buying public. You can slice and dice the data above however you'd like...
I think you get the point. :-) If you have ever wondered where your home falls into the overall distribution of home sales prices in this area -- now you know! Thanks, Tom, for the question that lead to this analysis! :-) | |
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If Your Home Is Not Under Contract After 30 Days, And You Have Not Received Any Offers, Should You Consider Adjusting The Price? |
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 The answer to this question is not timeless -- it depends on the market dynamics -- so we should answer it differently now as compared to in five years ago as compared to in five years. But here's the question, again... If Your Home Is Not Under Contract After 30 Days, And You Have Not Received Any Offers, Should You Consider Adjusting The Price? Right now, in the current 2021 market, I'd say the answer is usually (but not always) yes. If your home has been on the market for 30 days and it is still available for sale (not under contract), without having received any offers, then you should likely consider adjusting the asking price of your home. After all, within that first 30 days you have likely had a good number of buyers consider your home -- either by viewing it online, driving by or walking through it. If none of these buyers have been inspired to make an offer, it is likely a good time to consider adjusting your asking price. With... a few exceptions... [1] If your home is priced in the top 10% (or 5%) of our market, you are appealing to a much smaller portion of the buyers in our market, and it might take longer for a buyer to be in the market to buy your home and you might not want to or need to adjust your asking price yet. [2] If your home is in a bit of an "out of the way" location that will only appeal to a small subset of buyers in the market, it might take longer for a buyer to be in the market to buy your home and you might not want to or need to adjust your asking price yet. You get the point... If there are plenty of potential buyers in the market to buy houses like what you are trying to sell -- and nobody has made an offer -- you should likely reconsider your pricing strategy. Again, though, this is market specific and property specific. The same advice might not apply a year or two from now -- and the same advice does not necessarily apply to every property on the market today. If we're listing your house for sale, while we'll be in constant communication in the first 30 days and thereafter, let's also plan to pause 30 days in to reconsider our pricing strategy if we haven't received any offers. | |
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Do Some Of The Attributes Of Your Home Disqualify Some Buyers? |
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 There are plenty of ways in which attributes of your home may cause some buyers to not even consider it. When you are analyzing the market value of your home, it is important to understand whether a few, many, or most buyers will be disqualified based on those attributes of your home. Some examples...
We'll spend much of our time focusing on the positive attributes of your home and how they will appeal to buyers -- but we can't ignore the attributes of your house that will cause some buyers to disqualify themselves from considering your home. If a combination of the disqualifying attributes of your home cause only 10% of buyers in your price range to consider buying your home -- then we need to account for that in our pricing strategy. Your home likely won't sell for as much as we might have hoped, given that we will effectively be appealing to a much narrower segment of buyers. | |
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Some Sellers Will Prioritize Certainty Over Price |
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 When a seller signs a contract with a buyer, they want to be as certain as possible that the contract will proceed to settlement. The king of all offers, providing the most certainty to a seller would be a cash offer with no contingencies whatsoever. As each of the contingencies below are added to a contract, the seller's certainty decreases...
It is important, as a buyer, to remember that most sellers are thinking about certainty alongside price. Which of these offers is likely to succeed?
When presented with these three offers I think many or most sellers would choose offer #1 even though it is $1K or $5K lower than the other two offers in hand. Give careful thought to the contingencies you do and do not include in your offer and understand how they affect the seller's view of the certainty that your contract will make it to settlement. | |
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102 Apartments Proposed On Apple Valley Road |
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 Driving down Port Republic Road, from the County towards the City, you'll spot a tall apartment building on the left side of the road where you'd turn to go to Moe's Southwest Grill. This apartment complex -- Altitude Apartments -- opened in 2019 and features 140 apartments and a clubhouse. The current owner of Altitude Apartments is asking the County to rezone 2.7 acres of adjacent land to allow for an additional apartment building with 102 apartments on five levels. This new apartment building is planned to include:
The complex will be marketed towards undergraduate students, graduate students and young professionals. Below you'll see the existing building in yellow and the proposed new building in red...  Finally, here's a rendering of what it will look like if you're standing next to the first building, looking down the road towards the new building...  Find out more about this proposed development in the County's full rezoning packet here. | |
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95 New Townhouses Proposed At Massanutten Resort |
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 view a larger image here Great Easter Resort Corporation, the developer at Massanutten Resort, has requested a rezoning of a parcel of land just under 10 acres to allow for 95 townhouses to be built near the intersection of Bloomer Springs Road and Resort Drive. Here's the proposed site layout...  view a larger image here Find out more about this proposal by downloading the full rezoning request packet here. | |
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Home Sales Up 15%, Prices Up 12% In 2021 Despite Slightly Slower September Sales |
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 Happy Tuesday Morning, Friends! I hope October is treating you well and that you are enjoying the cooler temperatures as much as I am. Earlier this month I had a great time picking apples at Showalter's Orchard in Timberville for the very first time. I brought home plenty of apples and some of their delicious apple cider. I had high hopes of baking some of those apples into a crisp... probably to be enjoyed with some vanilla ice cream and caramel sauce... Delicious! Alas, thus far those delicious, crisp, apples have only been enjoyed with a side of peanut butter -- but maybe I'll break out the apple crisp recipe yet this week. I hope you are enjoying some delicious flavors of fall yourself, and perhaps you'll consider a visit to Showalter's Orchard...  But moving past delicious, freshly grown, hand picked apples... and the desserts they might produce... let's explore the latest numbers from our local housing market for a bit. As always, you download a PDF of all of the charts and graphs here or, if you are intrigued by the beautiful house in Fairway Hills that graces the cover of my market report this month, check it out here. Now, let's break down the stats...  From a big picture perspective, here's what jumps out to me above... [1] Home sales were a bit slower this September (143) than last September (159). [2] Despite a slightly slower September, we've seen 15% more home sales thus far in 2021 than during the same time period in 2020! [3] When looking at a full year (12 months) of data there has been a 21% increase in the number of homes selling, annually, in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. That is a significant surge! [4] The median sales price thus far in 2021 is $269,675 which is 12% higher than it was a year ago when it was only $241,000. This is a large increase in median sales prices in just a year. [5] Homes were selling fast a year ago. They are selling faster now. Median days on market has dropped 55% from 11 days to five days over the past year. When we break things down between detached homes and attached homes we can learn a bit more about what is happening in our local market. An attached home is a duplex, townhouse or condo...  The green sections above are tracking the sales of detached homes where we find... [1] There have been 17% more detached home sales (1,124) in the past 12 months as compared to the prior 12 months (957). [2] The median sales price of detached homes has increased 12% over the past year, from $257,500 to $288,775. That is an increase of more than $30,000 in a single year. The orange sections above are tracking the sales of attached homes where we find... [3] There was a much larger, 29%, increase in the sales of detached homes over the past year. The annual pace of these detached home sales increased from 409/year up to 526/year. [4] The median sales price of these detached homes has increased 15%, from $189,900 up to $217,650. I mentioned earlier that home sales slowed down in September -- but maybe partially because August was bonkers?  As shown above, September 2021 fell short (143 sales) of September 2020... but... [1] Don't forget about August! There were an astonishingly high number of home sales (184) in August 2021, and if we combine August and September we find that there were 292 home sales during those two months last year, compared to 327 this year. [2] The last four months of 2020 were abnormally active because many home sales that would have likely taken place in the first half of 2020 were pushed into the second half of 2020 because of Covid. As such, looking towards the remainder of the year, I would not be surprised if 2021 continues to under perform as compared to 2020. Now, let's stack all of those months up to see how 2021 compares to past years...  Remarkably, the home sales in the first nine months of 2021 was more than in the first ten months of 2020 and more than the first eleven months of 2018 and 2019! So, we can take a month off, right? We could have no home sales in October and we'd still be outperforming last year! Alas, it doesn't seem like home sales will be taking a break in October. But as for predicting future sales activity, the best bet is to look at recent contract activity...  The most recent four months of contract activity (Jun-Sep) have definitely been slower than the contract activity we saw a year ago. There have been a total of 534 contracts signed between June 1 and September 30 this year -- as compared to 617 contracts signed during the same timeframe last year. This likely means we'll see somewhat fewer home sales over the next few months. This next graph won't surprise you as you've likely heard about the extremely low inventory of available homes in this area...  As I have mentioned before, this graph can be a bit misleading. Some might understand it to mean that there are fewer and fewer homes for sale and thus fewer and fewer homes are selling. But, in fact, we have seen 21% more home sales in the past 12 months as compared to the prior 12 months -- so what's the story? The second half of my comment above "at any given time" is the key to unlocking this mystery. Homes are selling (going under contract) quickly, and thus the number of homes on the market at any given time is continuing to stay low. That doesn't mean that there aren't homes on the market to buy -- there are, or were -- but most will go under contract and not be available for any more than a few days. So, as a buyer, be prepared to act quickly, likely compete with other buyers, and possibly have to wait a bit to find the right opportunity. Interestingly, the changes in inventory levels haven't affected all property types in the same way...  The blue line above is showing changes in the number of detached homes on the market at any given time. You'll note that these inventory levels have dropped quite a bit over the past two years. The red line, showing attached homes) has been very low and remained very low for quite some time now. Neither property type is likely to meaningfully increase until and unless we see a significant amount of new construction to help offset high buyer demand.  This graph is a new one, but I think an important one for keeping an eye on the mood of the market. Days on market, as shown above, measures how quickly homes are going under contract. Independent of how many homes are selling and the prices at which they are selling -- if they are going under contract quickly then the market is strong and power is tipped towards sellers -- and if homes are taking a longer time to go under contract the market is not quite as strong and power is starting to balance out between sellers and buyers. Over the past three years we have seen a steady decline in how long it takes homes to go under contract, with a current median of five days on the market. I'll continue to monitor this "days on the market" metric over time to see if things are cooling off at all in our local market. That doesn't seem to be happening yet. :-) You might have heard that mortgage interest rates are increasing, but...  I have read quite a few headlines lately about how rising interest rates are certain to dampen home buyer enthusiasm. If I had a dollar for every time someone told me (or I told you) that interest rates were going to rise over the past seven (+) years... Mortgage interest rates were around 3.5% a year and a half ago, and around 3% a year ago, and are around 3% now. So, are interest rates rising? Sure, a bit, depending on when you pick as the "then" to compare to the "now" but they are still very (very!) low. Alrighty then! That brings my monthly deep dive into our housing market statistics to a close, for now. As usual... If you are thinking of selling your house this fall or winter, let's talk sooner rather than later about timing, pricing, preparations and more. If you're thinking of buying this fall or winter, start looking now, because there aren't many houses on the market, so we'll likely need to patiently wait for the right opportunity to come along and then jump on it, quickly! Have a great remainder of the week, and if you visit Showalter's Orchard and subsequently make apple crisp, text me a photo to make me jealous... or invite me over to sample it... I'll bring the ice cream and caramel sauce! ;-) | |
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If You Are Buying A Home Soon, Consider Starting Your Loan Application Now |
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 Here are the three sequences I see buyers follow most frequently....
As Late As Possible
Incredibly Proactive
A Reasonable Middle Ground
I try to encourage all of my clients to at least be in the "reasonable middle ground" sequence as outlined above. This gives them a firm idea of what they can afford and how a home price will compare to a loan payment. This also allows them to make a stronger offer, already having a pre-qualification letter in hand. I strongly discourage my clients from following the "as late as possible" sequence as outlined above. This doesn't help them make the best decisions about which houses to pursue, how far to negotiate, etc. This also doesn't allow us to make as strong of an offer on a house. Occasionally, one of my clients will fall into the "incredible proactive" sequence as outlined above, and wow, this makes the financing process a joy to work through! These buyers have already done so much of their work with the lender before even thinking about which house to buy -- which then allows them to focus on buying, negotiating, inspecting, etc., rather than be bogged down in the process of securing their mortgage. Let me know if you have questions about how I have described these sequences -- and let me know if you would like a few recommendations for lenders in the Harrisonburg area. | |
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Will This House Sell For More Than The Asking Price? |
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 The answer to this question - will a house sell for more than its asking price - does not just relate to how the asking price compares to the market value of the home.
Certainly, if a house is priced too low, or even priced fairly in a competitive market, that will increase the likelihood that it will sell above the asking price... [1] A house worth $350K, listed for $330K, will almost certainly sell for more than the asking price. [2] A house worth $350K, listed for $350K, is likely to sell for more than the asking price in the current market. ... but there are other factors that affect this as well. [1] How many buyers have viewed the home? As the number of showings increases, the likelihood of a house selling for more than the asking price also increases. [2] How many buyers have made an offer? As the number of offers increases, the likelihood of a house selling for more than the asking price also increases. All of this might seem pretty straightforward, but pause to reflect on these dynamics as you are considering an offer on a house recently listed for sale. Consider these two fictional houses that came on the market (not really) yesterday, that we’re walking through today... [1] House listed for $350K, with 18 showings and four offers thus far. This house is very, very likely to sell for more than the asking price. :-) [2] House listed for $350K, with eight showings and one offer thus far. This house might sell for more than the asking price - if another buyer jumps in and makes a second offer. [2] House listed for $350K, with 12 showings and no offers. This house could, possibly, sell for more than the asking price, but it is not seeming very likely given that lots of buyers have looked at it already and there aren’t any offers. [3] House listed for $350K, with one showing and no offers. This house is almost certainly not going to sell for more than the asking price - unless a bit more time passes and several buyers all of a sudden go see the house at the same time and make simultaneous offers and then have to compete with each other to buy the house. So, to answer the question of whether a house is likely to sell for more than its asking price, we really need to start by asking how many showings a house has had and how many offers exist. | |
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We Will Not Know How Many Potential Buyers For Your Home Are Waiting In The Wings Until We List Your House For Sale |
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 How much interest will my house have once it is listed for sale?
The answer? Assume nothing! Just because you are in a low price range with very low inventory that does not mean you will have high buyer interest if there are other factors of the property (location, condition, age, finishes, systems) that make it less than appealing to most buyers. Just because you are in an extremely high price range that does not mean you will not have lots and lots of early buyer interest and lots of offers. Just because you are in a popular neighborhood that doesn’t mean that you can price your home higher than is justified based on comparable sales once adjusted for how they differ from your home based on layout, finishes and condition. In the end, we can make some educated guesses on how much buyer interest (showings, offers) will exist once your house is listed for sale - but we won’t REALLY know until we list it for sale. Ah, the suspense… | |
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Harrisonburg Area High End Home Sales Booming In 2021 |
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 Only 7% of local home buyers spend $500K or more on their home purchase (per sales data over the past 12 months) but this segment of the local housing market has been strong over the past few years. As shown above, there were 76 home sales over $500K last year - which was wellmore than any time in the past decade. This year we have already exceeded that pace of $500K+ home sales even with just the first ninemonths of the year. There have already been 85 home sales over $500K up through October 4, 2020 and there is still time for a more before the end of the year.  We also saw a big jump in the number of home sales over $600K last year Last year was an extraordinarily strong year for home sales over $600K - with 38 such sales - well more than in any other year in the past decade. This year -- we're seeing even more $600K+ home sales, with 43 thus far and still three months to go! Let's keep narrowing our focus, now to sales over $700K...  The number of $700K home sales a year was averaging four sales per year between 2016 and 2018 and then more than tripled in 2019 to 14 sales, followed by another 15 sales in 2020. But this year -- wow! The number of home sales over $700K looks like it will likely double this year as we have already seen 26 such home sales in the first nine months of 2021! And... one more time... let's look at even more expensive homes...  This one surprised me. Well, most of the graphs did, but this one particularly. Before 2019 we were seeing around two sales a year over $800K. In 2019 and 2020 that jumped up to 7 (2019) and 5 (2020) -- but this year -- we have already seen 16 buyers pay over $800K for homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! So -- overall, the high end home sales market is doing extremely well as compared to performance in past years! If you are thinking of selling your high end home (over $500K, $600K, $700K or even $800K) this might be the time to do so! | |
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Moving Once Is Hard, But Moving Twice Is Harder |
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 Moving from one house to another is tough work! Even tougher (sometimes) is arranging the timing and logistics to work well for all parties. If you're selling a house in order to buy a house, it's possible that...
The spot for you to be can be somewhat easier -- you could stay at a hotel or with a friend for a night if needed. It's decidedly harder to put all of your belongings in the hotel room or in your friend's house. The options, generally speaking, are...
If none of these are possibilities -- I have even had some clients who had to put everything in storage, just for a few days -- and then move it out of storage into the new house. Again - even moving is tremendously hard - but arranging for it within the tight confines of closing timelines and when you do and do not have access to the old house and new house can make it even more difficult! | |
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The Higher The Price Point Of The Home, The More Important The Layout Of The Home |
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 If a buyer is buying a home priced over $400K or $500K, or even over $300K, the layout of the home becomes very important to them. That is not to say that it is unimportant for a $200K buyer -- but someone buying a more expensive home oftentimes plans to stay in it for a longer time frame. If not the #1 feedback, then perhaps the #2 feedback I receive from showings of homes priced over $400K is that the layout just didn't work for the buyers....
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You Finally Found THE House, Now, How To Make An Offer |
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 How, you might ask, do we go about getting from the point of wanting to make an offer --- to actually making the offer? Here's a brief overview....
When we get to step seven, above, we will be discussing and deciding on the terms of the offer. Below is a list of the main contract terms we will need to discuss in preparing to make an offer.
Before and after making an offer, there is a lot more to know about and think about regarding the home purchasing process. Read more at....  Keep up with new listings at ...  | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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