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Harrisonburg Housing Market Still Showing Strength Despite Some Signs Of Slowing |
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 Happy Thursday afternoon, friends! As any student or teacher will tell you, summer is almost over! 😢 I hope that you and your family had a wonderful summer and that you had at least one opportunity to sneak away... to the beach, the lake, a tropical island, a music festival, a rural AirBNB, a national forest, a campsite or a new city! One of my favorite spots to sneak away is Deep Creek Lake, MD...  But getting back to business... The beautiful house on the cover of this month's market report is located at 3161 Henry Grant Hill in Preston Lake and you can find out more about this spacious home here. Each month I have a giveaway, of sorts, for readers of this market report. This month's giveaway requires a special sort of market report reader... one who also likes to run... a lot. I enjoy running and frequently participate in races put on by VA Momentum, and thus I was excited to hear they are putting on a half marathon this fall. So... this month, you can enter for a chance to win a free registration to the Harrisonburg Half Marathon, to be held on October 15, 2022! Find out more about the half marathon here. Enter to win the free race registration here. Email me and tell me I'm crazy for thinking you'd run a half marathon here. 😉 And now, after all that, let's dig in and see what is happening in our local housing market...  As noted in my headline above, there are some signs that our local real estate market might be slowing down a bit. This very well may mean, though, that it slows down from going 90 MPH in a 60 MPH zone to going 75 MPH in a 60 MPH zone. The latest numbers, as shown above, indicate that... [1] July home sales were slower (140) than last July. We'll see this again on a graph in a moment. [2] Thus far this year we have seen 932 home sales, which is 4.6% more than last year. We had a record number of home sales last year, so a further increase this year is... record breaking. [3] The median sales price in July was 5% higher than last July. [4] When looking at the first seven months of the year, the median sales price has risen 11.7% in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. So... most of these indicators are quite positive, rosy, exuberant, except the slight slow down in July. This is seen a bit more clearly here...  Above, you'll note that in June 2022 we had an astronomical 188 home sales... higher than any of the past three months of June. But, then, July. In July 2022 we only saw 140 home sales, which is less than any of the past three months of July. Some might point out that looking at a single month of housing data, in a small-ish housing market, can make you think something is happening, when nothing is happening. I agree that can happen. If we smash the two months together, we find that there have been 328 home sales this June and July... compared to 322 home sales last June and July. So... maybe things are "just fine" right now, and maybe things are starting to slow, slightly.  As shown above, if things are starting to slow... they're only just starting to do so, and they're doing so verrrrry slowly. The 932 home sales seen thus far in 2022 is more than we have seen in the first seven months of any of the prior four years. Perhaps when we get another month or two into the year we will see things level out a bit in 2022?  Slicing and dicing the data once more, this graph (above) measures (each month) the number of sales in a 12 month period as shown with an orange line, and the 12-month median sales price (measured each month) shown with the green line. As you can see at the end of the orange line, it's possible that the overall pace of home sales is slowing a bit... but then again, maybe not. We'll need to watch this for a few more months to know for sure. Speaking of the future, our most reliable indicator of future sales is... current contracts...  This one surprised me a bit. We usually see around 150 to 160 contracts signed in any given month of July. But... not this July. There were only 114 contracts signed in July 2022, which is much lower than usual, and likely means we will see a lower than usual month of closed sales in August and/or September. This falls to the category of "things that make you say hmmmm...." and this will definitely be a trend we will need to continue to monitor. Somewhat fewer buyers signing contracts might mean that inventory levels would rise a bit...  Indeed, we are starting to see inventory levels creep up a bit. There are now 163 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, which is a bit more than the 129 we saw at this time a year ago. It is important to note, though that these "slightly higher" inventory levels are really still VERY, VERY low. Many or most buyers in most price ranges and locations still have very few options of homes to buy right now. So, yes, inventory levels are creeping up a bit, but don't think that's necessarily giving buyers more choices... or giving buyers more leverage... at least not at this point. So... a few fewer sales... fewer contracts... slightly higher inventory levels... that probably means that homes aren't selling as quickly, right!? Well...  Looking at the 12 months of home sales prior to July 2021 (a year ago) the median "days on market" for those sales was only five days. That metric has remained constant for 13 months now... and today, when looking backwards by a year, the median "days on market" is still just five days. Narrowing the focus even more, to just the 114 properties that went under contract in July 2022, we might expect to see a higher "days on market" -- and we do -- but only barely. The median days on market during July 2022 was... six days. So, homes are still going under contract very, very quickly! Finally, maybe this (below) is a contributing factor to the slight slow down over the past 30 to 45 days?  A year ago, the mortgage interest rate was 2.8%. Six months ago it was 3.55%. During June and July it was as high as 5.81%, though it has started to decline now. It is quite possible that these higher mortgage rates have caused some buyers to not be able to buy any longer... or that it has at least partially dampened their enthusiasm. So, there you have it, friends. The housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is still showing great signs of strength with more sales than ever, at higher prices than ever. But... we might be seeing a slight slow down in home sales (from record high levels) and we might be seeing a slight increase in inventory levels (from record low levels). We'll have to give it a few more months to see how things continue to develop in the local market to know for sure. Until then... If selling a home is on your mind, let's talk sooner rather than later. Before you know it, we'll be halfway through fall and headed into winter. If you are planning to buy a home soon, let's start watching for new listings of interest and going to see them quickly when they hit the market. If I can be of any help with the above (selling, buying) please call/text me at 540-578-0102 or email me here so we can talk about working together to navigate your way through the ever changing Harrisonburg real estate market. Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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