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Fewer City Home Sales, More County Home Sales In 2024 With Higher Prices All Around |
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 Happy Thursday morning to you! The summer seems to have flown by, and soon school will be starting for many of us... as parents of K-12 students, as parents of college students, as teachers or administrators at a K-12 school or professors or administrators at a local college or university. If you have a such a transition coming up, I hope you had a full and fun and relaxing summer and are excited for the school year ahead.  Shaena, Luke, Emily and I had a fun and fulfilling summer and soon Luke will be starting his second year of college and Emily will start 11th grade. The years fly by quickly! Before we start looking through the latest trends in our local real estate market, each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away a $50 gift card to Jack Brown's. If you find me at Jack Brown's it will probably be enjoying one of their delicious burgers and some sweet potato fries. Click here to enter to win the gift card. Now then, where were we... ah, yes, the latest housing market data...  The chart above outlines some of the main trends in our local housing market and a few things stand out to me... [1] We have seen strong sales over the past three months as compared to last year, with a 14% year over year increase in the number of home sales taking place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. [2] This latest surge over the past three months (+14%) has been pushing back against the 7% decline in sales when we look at the past 12 months of home sales compared to the 12 months before that. [3] When looking just at the current calendar year, we have seen an 8% increase in the number of home sales taking place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County in 2024 compared to 2023. ...and on sales prices... [4] Over the past year the median sales price has increased 6% from $318,480 to $337,500. [5] But when we look just at the current year to date (Jan-Jul) we have only seen a 4% increase in the median sales price compared to the same seven months last year. So, we're seeing more home sales in the first seven months of this year compared to the first seven months of last year... but sales prices seem to be rising a bit more slowly than they had been over the past few years. Sneaking a quick glance at detached single family homes, and then attached homes...  The median sales price of detached homes has increased 11% thus far in 2024 as compared to the same timeframe in 2023... to a median sales price of $388,000. That is to say that half of detached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling for $388K or more and half are selling for $388K or less. And how about those attached homes...  We have only seen a 5% increase in the median sales price of attached homes... which includes townhomes, duplexes and condos. The median sales price of these properties thus far in 2024 is $310,000... which means that half of the attached homes selling in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are selling for $310K or more and half are selling for $310K or less. If you're looking to buy a home, the number of opportunities you might have will likely vary depending on if you want to buy in the City or the County. Here's what we're seeing in the City of Harrisonburg...  City home sales (shown above) have declined 17% in the first seven months of 2024 compared to the same timeframe last year. While 200 homeowners sold their homes last January through July, only 167 homeowners sold this January through July. This is largely a supply side issue... fewer sellers selling... not fewer buyers buying. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...  If you have been hoping to buy a home in Rockingham County, you're in luck, there are many more opportunities to do so than in the City of Harrisonburg. In the first seven months of this year we have seen 17% more home sales in the County than during the same timeframe last year. But... one of the reasons why there are more home sales in the County than in the City is because most new homes currently being built are in the County (not the City) and new home sales are on the rise...  While only 175 new homes sold in the first seven months of 2023... we have seen 227 new home sales during that timeframe this year... which marks a 30% increase in new homes selling in our area. We have not, though, seen a 30% increase in existing homes selling...  We have seen... only a 1% increase in the number of existing homes selling in the first seven months of 2024 as compared to 2023. Looking one year further back on the chart above you'll note that the mid-500-ish home sellers who sold during this timeframe in 2023 and 2024 is well below the 708 existing home sales seen during that timeframe in 2022. Mortgage interest rates being what they are continues to impact how many homeowners are willing to sell their home. And now, some graphs to provide some visual insights into these latest trends...  May, June and July have been busy months for home buyers and sellers this year with a total of 401 home sales... as compared to only 352 in the same three months last year. Looking ahead, we are likely to see fewer home sales taking place in August if we track along last year's trend. These last three months have helped 2024 eek ahead of 2023...  After a significant decline in the number of homes selling in our area (1600-ish down to 1200-ish) between 2022 and 2023 we are now seeing a modest increase in home sales activity in 2024. The 789 home sales thus far in 2024 exceeds the 730 seen last year through the end of July, though it is well below the 943 seen in January through July of 2022. And as we have been seeing for quite a few months now, sales are slowly rising and price increases might be slowing a bit...  The bottom blue line, above, shows the annual pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - measured monthly. Over the past seven months we have been (mostly) seeing this pace of home sales trend upwards. The top green line, above, shows the annualized median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - measured monthly. We are still seeing steady increase in the median sales price, but it is not increasing quite as quickly as it has over the past few years. But of note... the median sales price of *detached* home sales is definitely still steadily increasing...  Market-wide median sales price trends can be affected by how many detached vs. attached homes are selling... or how many new vs. resale homes are selling. While the median sales price in our overall market is trending upwards a bit more slowly than in recent years, the detached median sales price is still *steadily* increasing. Just three years ago the median sales price of a detached home was just below $300K and now we are edging closer and closer to $400K. Lots of circles and arrows on this next graph... focus, folks, focus...  The graph above shows the number of contracts being signed each month. We saw much higher levels of contract activity this March, April and May than we did last March, April and May. Then, contract activity in June was about where it was last June... and July contracts were well below levels seen last July. This likely means that we will see fewer closed sales over the next few months, which is confirmed by the latest pending sales trends...  The number of pending sales (under contract homes) peaked in May 2024 and has been declining ever since. That said, current levels (267 pending sales) are still above where we were a year ago (252 pending sales) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Another quirky metric of late has been inventory levels...  Inventory levels (the number of homes for sale at any given time) were steadily trending now between April and June, and then popped back up again in July 2024. The blue line above shows inventory levels last year and you can see a similar increase between the end of June and the end of July... so the increase this year is not unexpected, but does run counter to the steady decreases we had been seeing over the past few months. This following graph, tracking median days on market, has become much more interesting over the past year and a half...  For quite a few years (see the first third of the graph above) the median sales on market was sticking right around five days, regardless of the time of year. All homes were selling very quickly at all times of year. Now, we seem to be seeing a bit more seasonality in this trend, with median days on market (how quickly homes go under contract after they are listed for sale) trending upwards through the fall and winter and then back downwards in the spring and summer. So, don't be surprised if median days on market starts to rise again over the next few months. And finally, one of the main drivers of buying and selling activity of late...  Those darn, silly, pesky, mortgage interest rates. As mortgage interest rates rise, the cost of a monthly housing payment rises, assuming the same sales price. Over the past few years we have seen steadily rising home prices AND rising mortgage interest rates. When we see higher rates, buyers aren't quite as capable or as interested in buying... and sellers (if they would have to then buy again) aren't quite as interested in selling. If or as or when we see mortgage interest rates start trending downwards, we will likely see more buyers AND sellers enter the market. As noted above, during August, rates have fallen even further than shown on the graph... down to 6.47% and I have seen some buyers locking in as low as 5.99% recently. So, having absorbed all of those insights into the latest trends in our local housing market, what does it all mean for you? If you are thinking about buying a home in the next few months... things might see a smidge more hopeful. Mortgage interest rates are trending down a bit. Inventory levels are trending up a bit. Days on market might trend upwards a touch. Many segments of the market are still moving very quickly and are still very competitive, but not all segments of the market. Depending on what type of property you want to buy, and its location, and its price range -- you might be competing with multiple other buyers within a day of a house being listed for sale -- or you might actually be able to sleep on your decision about whether to make an offer on a new listing. If you are thinking about selling your home in the next few months... it is still relatively likely that it will sell quickly and almost certainly at a very pleasing price... but all property types, locations and price ranges are not performing equally right now. We'll want to dive a bit deeper into the data related to your specific home to devise the best pricing strategy and to give you reasonable expectations as to how quickly your home will sell. If you have questions about buying, selling, the process, the market or anything else, you are more than welcome to reach out anytime. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. All the best to your and your family as this new school year begins... and if you don't have anyone in your life starting a school year, then just get excited about the eventual return of cooler temperatures as we head into the autumn months. :-) Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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