Archive for November 2024
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Are Most New Homes Attached Homes These Days? |
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 With most proposed new housing developments including apartments and townhouses these days -- and far fewer including detached homes -- some wonder whether we will continue to see fewer and fewer new detached homes built in future years. Above you'll see how things shook out in 2023 and 2024. Last year, 59% of new homes that were sold via the HRAR MLS were detached homes... more than half of the total. This year, only 48% of new homes that sold via the HRAR MLS were detached homes. I think there is a good chance that this trend -- a shift away from detached homes, towards attached homes -- will continue in new construction in this area over the next few years. | |
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How Much Should I Consider Spending To Renovate My Home? |
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 With fewer homeowners looking to sell their homes and buy another, often because of their low mortgage interest rates on their current mortgage... some such homeowners may be wondering how much it is reasonable to spend on renovating their home. Here's one potential guideline to consider... and I'd like your feedback on it... Consider spending no more than 15% to 20% of your home value on renovations... knowing that you will likely only increase your home value by no more than 10% by making such renovations. Let's run a few examples... $400K home... consider spending no more than $60K to $80K on renovations... knowing that you will likely only increase your home value by no more than $40K by doing so. $600K home... consider spending no more than $90K to $120K on renovations... knowing that you will likely only increase your home value by no more than $60K by doing so. Multiple thoughts run through my mind, and may run through your mind, when considering these examples... 1. Where am I going to get $60K or $80K or $90K or $120K to make these renovations? Yes, a good point. These are intended to be theoretical maximum renovation budgets... but that doesn't necessarily mean you have those sort of funds on hand to make the improvements. The renovations that many homeowners make will be bounded by their overall financial picture, more than these hypothetical guidelines. 2. Why will your home value only go up by $40K if I spend $40K to $80K? Most renovation projects have a less than 100% return on the dollars you spend on that project. Renovating an older kitchen into a brand new kitchen will increase your home's value, but likely by an amount that is less than the total cost of your renovation. 3. Should I just sell my home and buy a new one instead of renovating? Probably not. When you consider the cost of selling, the cost of buying, the cost of moving, the cost of any improvements on the new house, and the change in mortgage payment based on current mortgage interest rates... most homeowners are better off staying and renovating rather than selling and then buying. If you want to dial in a bit further on what your numbers could or would or should look like relative to your current home value, how much you might spend on renovations and a post renovation value, just let me know. | |
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The Increasingly Difficult Challenge Of Purchasing A Detached City Home |
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 It has become increasingly difficult to purchase a detached home in the City of Harrisonburg... because there simply aren't as many sellers selling right now. Three years ago (2021) there were 253 detached homes sales in the City. In 2022 that dropped to 214 sales. In 2023 that dropped to 155 sales. Thus far in 2024, there have only been 132 detached home sales. Why aren't more City homeowners selling their homes? 1. Many have super low mortgage interest rates, and thus super low monthly housing costs, and wouldn't want to trade that in for much higher housing costs given current mortgage interest rates. 2. While many homeowners have plenty of equity and sell for a very delightful sales price... they would also have to pay a rather steep price for a replacement home if they want to stay in the City. 3. For anyone hoping to stay in the City, it's a vicious cycle... won't sell because what would I buy... which keeps my house off the market... which means there are fewer homes for anyone else to buy, etc., etc. So, if you hope to buy a detached home in the City of Harrisonburg, you may very well have a longer wait than you'd like, you may have more competition from other buyers than you'd like, and you will probably pay a higher price than you'd like to pay. | |
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Is There A Price You WOULD Pay For This House? |
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 For quite a while now, we've been operating in a market where nearly everything sells at or over the asking price, sometimes with multiple offers. Thus, many buyers assume a seller will only sell for the asking price and it isn't worth making an offer below the asking price. Sometimes this is, indeed, the case -- especially in the first few weeks that a house is on the market. At this stage, home sellers are typically still rather confident and/or hopeful that their asking price is appropriate for the market. But after a house has been on the market for a few weeks, what's the downside of a buyer making an offer below the asking price? When a buyer views a house that has been on the market for a few weeks, and they don't like it enough to pay the list price... they often just move on and decide not to make an offer. I think many buyers should, instead, consider what price they WOULD pay for the house. If you like a house, but just not at the current offering price -- make an offer of the price you would be willing to pay for the house. Who knows, the seller might surprise you, and might be willing to negotiate to a price that would work for them and for you! | |
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There Are Plenty Of Types Of Houses That Exist That Just Are Not Available To Purchase |
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 I'd like to buy that house, over there... Well, that's great, but... it's not for sale! :-) With some regularity, I'll be chatting with a buyer who describes what they want to buy... and we find that there is nothing on the market that matches their interests. Sometimes we will go a step further and look to see if something similar has sold in the past year... and sometimes we will again find that nothing has sold that matches their interests. But... this doesn't mean that the house they want to buy doesn't exist... it just means that it is not for sale and has not been for sale recently. As you might imagine, this can be frustrating for said buyer... who really wants to buy a house like ___ or in ___ neighborhood... but finds that nobody is selling such a house or a house in such a location. What, then, should you do if this describes your home search? Three main options exist... 1. Continue to patiently (?) wait for such a home to come on the market. 2. Compromise somewhat on the overall vision for your next home and buy something that is close to what you want, but not spot on. 3. Start knocking on doors of homes you think you'd like to buy to see if you can talk a homeowner into selling. | |
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Home Sales By Price Range In The City Of Harrisonburg |
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 The most active price range for home sales in the City of Harrisonburg is... the $200K to $300K price range. But this might be more than just what buyers are buying... 1. The housing stock (what homes exist in the City) also impacts what is sold, and thus, what buyers can buy. 2. The houses that homeowners in the City are willing to sell also impacts what is old, and thus, what buyers can buy. An interesting unknown is whether home buyers would buy $500K+ or $600K+ or $700K+ homes in the City of Harrisonburg if more such homes existed. Quarry Heights may help to answer that question as they plan to build $500K+ detached homes and $600K+ attached villas. | |
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Are You Compromising On Aspects Of Your Next Home That You Can Or Cannot Change Later? |
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 Buying a home inevitably involves making some compromises. It is rare to find a home that fits you perfectly, that has everything that you want, and nothing that you don't. But... there are different types of compromises you might be considering making when viewing any particular home... 1. I like this home a lot, but I will probably want to update the flooring and do a lot of painting, and I might want to try to open up that wall between the kitchen and dining area. 2. I absolutely love this home, and wouldn't really change anything about it, other than that I wish it didn't back up to this busy road as all we hear is road noise when we're out on the back deck. The compromise on the first house is short term, and changeable -- you can (soon or eventually) replace flooring, paint walls, and possibly open up a wall between two rooms. The compromise on the second house is likely long term, and unchangeable -- busy roads almost always tend to remain busy roads or to become busier roads. So, as you are thinking about the compromises you are making in pursuing any given home, think about whether they are aspects of the property that you can or cannot change in the future. | |
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How Much Slower Are The Winter Months In Our Local Housing Market? |
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 It is common knowledge that the winter months are the slowest when it comes to home sales -- in our local market, and beyond. But just how much slower are they? The graph above shows the average number of *contracts signed* per month during the winter (Dec, Jan Feb) as compared to during the spring (Mar, Apr, May) based on the past three years of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. So... Is 100 buyers buying a month a significantly slower pace of buyers committing to buy than 142 buyers buying a month? Yes. Is 100 buyers buying a month still a pretty solid amount of buyers buying per month in the context of the spring market only comprising of 142 buyers buying a month? Yes. Is it possible that the number of buyers buying per month during the winter is artificially constrained by a lower number of sellers being willing to sell per month? Yes. So... if you are thinking about selling your home in the next six months... should you wait until spring? You could, but I don't think you need to if you would rather sell and move sooner than springtime. There will still be plenty of buyers buying over the winter, even if it is not as many as will be buying in the spring. | |
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Rockingham County and New Home Sales Drive Surge in Area Housing Market |
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 Happy Friday morning, all! November is flying right along... with a rather entertaining overlap of the JMU football and basketball seasons (Go Dukes!)... plus one of my favorite holidays, Thanksgiving! Speaking of JMU Basketball... each month I offer a giveaway for readers of my market report. This month I'm giving away four tickets to the JMU Men's Basketball game on Saturday, December 7 at 4:00 PM. Click here to enter for a chance to win the tickets to cheer on the JMU Dukes! Now, on to the latest in our local housing market. First, some of the overall metrics...  Home sales slowed, a touch, in October 2024 with only 110 home sales as compared to 116 last October... but thus far this year we have seen 1,118 home sales, which is a 6% increase from the 1,050 seen in the same timeframe last year. So... 6% more home sales this year than last... and how about those prices... The median sales price in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the first ten months of 2024 has been $345,000 -- which is a 5% increase from the median sales price of $330,000 last year at this time. So... 6% more home sales, and 5% higher prices... how about the speed of those sales... Median days on market continues to (slowly) increase in 2024... which a current median of 7 days, up from 6 days a year ago, and 5 days the prior year. So... small increases in the speed at which home sales go under contract, but 6% more home sales and 5% higher prices. Now, let's take a quick look at only single family detached housing, which excludes townhouses, duplexes and condos...  In contrast to the market-wide 6% increase in the number of homes that are selling, we are only seeing a 2% increase in the number of detached homes that are selling. Also of note, two years ago we had seen 941 detached home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County through the end of October, whereas we are only seeing 751 such sales thus far in 2024. When it comes to prices, we are seeing a stronger (12%) increases in the median sales price of detached homes as compared to the overall market-wide 5% increase in the median sales price. Furthermore, the median sales price of a single family detached home has increased from $327,000 to $390,900 over the past two years. Next up, let's take a peek just at the City of Harrisonburg...  While we are seeing increases in home sales in most portions of the market... and in the overall market... not so much in the City of Harrisonburg. There have only been 231 home sales in the City thus far in 2024 which is a 13% decline from last year, and a 39% decline from the 376 home sales seen in the first ten months of 2022. Meanwhile, in Rockingham County...  Mirroring the 13% decline in City sales in 2024, we are finding a 13% increase in Rockingham County home sales thus far in 2024. One reason we are seeing more of an increase in home sales in the County than in the City is a result of most new home developments currently being built in the County... and not the City. Here's a look at the number of new construction homes selling in recent years...  And as you might imagine... if we're seeing a 28% increase in new home sales in the first ten months of 2024, we probably aren't seeing much of an increase in existing home sales...  Indeed, we are seeing a tiny decline in existing home sales this year (793) compared to last year (796) though both are considerably below the 1,042 existing homes that sold two years ago in the first 10 months of 2022. Rolling over now into some graphs, let's see what else we can learn about our local housing market through the end of October 2024...  For five of the past six months we have seen more home sales this year than last year... the one exception being October. We could also generalize and say that the larger increases in monthly sales (larger little gold arrows) were on the first half of the past six months... while the smaller increases (smaller little gold arrows) were on the second half of the past six months. Looking ahead a bit on the graph above... it seems almost guaranteed that we will see more November home sales this year than last. Last year we saw monthly home sales drop from 116 in October to 72 in November. I don't think we will see that large of a decline this year. When we pile up each month of the year on top of the prior months, here's what we get over the past few years...  Home sales are on the rise this year... increasing from 1,049 to 1,1118 in the first ten months of the year... BUT... that is still a significant drop from the 1,389 home sales seen in the first 10 months of 2022! The biggest difference, as you likely know, is that we were still experiencing super low mortgage interest rates in 2022... which were no longer around in 2023 and 2024. On this next graph I'm trying to generalize the main two shifts I have seen in 2024...  The top line is tracking median sales prices. For several years we saw 10% per year annual increases in the median sales price... up to and including in 2023... but home prices seem to be increasing a bit more slowly in 2024... more in the neighborhood of a 5% increase instead of a 10% increase. The other main change we have seen in 2024 is that home sales are rising again... so as to say that more homes are selling. Through most of 2023 we saw steady declines in the number of homes that were selling, but that trend reversed itself (slowly) in 2024. Zooming out a bit, take a look at the change in home values for detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past five years...  Indeed... you are reading that correctly... the median sales price of a detached home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has increased by $150,000 over the past five years... for a cumulative 62% increase! A few thoughts come to mind... 1. Anyone who has owned the same home for the past 5+ years likely has quite a bit of equity in their home. 2. It is a lot harder (financially) to consider buying a detached home now (median price of $391K) than it was five years ago (median price of $240K). 3. Changes in mortgage interest rates over the past five years haven't helped buyers either -- as the average rate on a 30 year mortgage was 3.75% five years ago, and is 6.78% today. Wowsa! Shifting gears a bit, let's zoom back in to the here and now, to see what recent contract activity might tell us about upcoming months of home sales...  Here (above) is the other reason why I don't think we'll see a decline in November home sales this year like we did last year... there was a drastic difference in October contract activity this year compared to last. The key thing to remember about last October is that it included the final climb to a peak average mortgage interest rate of 7.79%. That steady climb slowed and slowed and slowed down buyer activity last October (and November) as shown by the blue line above. Thus, even though mortgage interest rates are currently in the 6% - 6.75% range, we still saw many more buyers signing contracts to buy homes this October (138) as compared to last October (83). I expect we will continue to see stronger contract activity in November and December of this year compared to the same months last year. Which leads us to "pending sales" -- the number of homes that are under contract at any given time...  The red line (above) tracks how many homes are pending (under contract) per month in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As you can see from all the gold arrows, we had been seeing increases in pending sales for most of the months this year... through August, when 2024 fell below 2023... but things have picked back up again significantly in September and October. There are currently 291 homes under contract (pending) in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as compared to only 234 a year ago at this time. And how about those inventory levels?  Look at the difference in the trajectory of the blue and red lines above. The blue line shows how inventory levels were steadily rising last year between July and October... in contrast to the red line that shows inventory levels mostly decreasing this year between July and October. Now in November, we see far fewer (163) homes for sale than at the same time last year when 230 homes were listed for sale and not yet under contract. A thread that runs through all of these charts are graphs is change in mortgage interest rates over time which is what we'll examine next...  Lots of arrows on this graph -- sorry, not sorry. A year ago we were seeing mortgage interest rates rise as we progressed from August (6.81%) to November (7.79%). We have seen an overall decline in rates over the past year (7.79% to 6.72%) but over the past month we have actually seen them start to increase a bit, rising from 6.08% at the end of September up to 6.72% at the end of October. Mortgage interest rates significantly impact the cost of housing and have played an oversized role in the the housing market (locally and beyond) over the past few years due to how quickly they have increased. So, if you've made it thus far, thanks for reading and for educating yourself on the state of our local housing market. The general, recent, local, trends I am seeing in our local market include:
If you will be buying or selling a home in the next three to six months, we should talk sooner rather than later about your hopes, goals, dreams and the best timing for your big move. Even if you don't know if you really will buy... or if you really will sell... I'm still happy to connect with you just the same to discuss your possible purchase/sale, to discuss the market, or to discuss life in general. Feel free to reach out anytime with questions or to set up a time to meet. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until we chat next, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving celebration and are able to enjoy bountiful, relaxing, refreshing and fulfilling time with your family, friends and other special people in your life. If you're running in the Rocktown Turkey Trot, I'll see you on Thanksgiving morning in downtown Harrisonburg! :-) Gobble, Gobble! | |
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Find The Balance Between Optimistic And Realistic Home Pricing |
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 For much of the past few years, being optimistic and being realistic about pricing your home were one and the same. The last similar home sold for $450K? Let's price your home at $475K. Three offers within days. Yahoo! But now, higher mortgage interest rates are pricing some buyers out of the market - which makes it ever more important for home sellers to find the balance between being optimistic and realistic when pricing their home. The last similar home sold for $450K? Perhaps we price your home at $449,500. A competing home has been on the market for 60 days priced at $455,000? Perhaps we price your home at $445,000. We can't just throw any price on your home and hope for the best -- we must do a careful analysis of the market, including past sales and current competing listings before determining a final pricing strategy for your home. | |
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Room Size Is Difficult To Understand Solely From Real Estate Photos |
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 Darn those wide angle lenses. ;-) It's pretty a pretty common phenomenon these days... we'll go walk through a house that looked FANTASTIC online... only to find out that all (or most) of the bedrooms are TINY! I don't really blame the seller, or the seller's agent, or the photographer... it's going to happen these days given high quality photography and wide angle lenses. My takeaways, generally, are... 1. It's important that we go walk through homes to get a sense of room size, house layout, where furniture will and won't fit, etc. Viewing a house online, alone, is not enough. 2. Don't feel bad about taking the time to go see a house that ends up not being a great fit after we walk through... that is often the only way to get a true sense of the house. 3. Sometimes we will be able to review room dimensions or floor plans prior to visiting a house... which might help us notice particularly small spaces... but walking through is still important. 4. I don't think sellers need to mention how small particular rooms are... or not use a wide angle lens... but you should price your home accordingly if many buyers will disqualify themselves based on room size. | |
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How Much Would You Value Not Having To Prepare Your Home For Showings? |
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 Most home sellers would assign some amount of value to not having to prepare your home for the market. This might allow you to skip... 1. Touch up paint 2. Final organization 3. Final cleaning 4. Photos 5. Showings You can likely skip some or all of these if you are in touch with a buyer who you know wants to buy your house. But... you probably wouldn't put tooooo high of a value on not having to prepare your house for the market... If you believe your home will sell on the market for $375K... and the known buyer wants to pay $370K for your house, you'll probably go for it. If they want to pay $365K you might still go for it. But if the buyer only wants to pay $360K for your house... many or most sellers will go ahead and take the time to make the final preparations to get their house on the market. After all, why potentially leave $15,000 on the table by selling to the known buyer who wants to pay that lower price for your house. This also does not account for whether your house might fetch multiple offers and sell for a bit above the asking price. If you hope to sell for $375K... and a known buyer wants to pay $360K... and you end up selling for $385K when you get your house on the market... you would have left $25,000 on the table by selling to the known buyer before listing your house for sale. But... every seller's situation is different. Let's think through and talk through what works best for you... and what your priorities are when it comes to pricing, timing and ease of sale. | |
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One Out Of Four Homes Is Taking Longer Than A Month To Sell |
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 Plenty of homes are still selling (going under contract) plenty quickly. But, not all of them. Over the past three months (Aug 10 - Nov 10) we have seen 315 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as recorded in the HRAR MLS. Of those 315 home sales... 85 of the homes took more than 30 days to go under contract. Thus -- 27% of homes are taking longer than a month to go under contract. So... if you are getting ready to sell your home, I am hopeful that it will be under contract within a matter of days... or weeks... but it could take more than a month to sell. Not too many years ago, this was quite normal and not at all unusual -- but over the past five or so years, the pace of the market has increased so much that it might seem unfathomable that it might take more than a month for your home to sell. | |
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Consider The Cost Of Your Planned Renovations When Planning Your Offer |
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 Sometimes we will find a home that is a perfect fit for you. More often, we will find a home that is a relatively good fit, but where you'll want to make a few changes or improvements or renovations after you purchase it. If you are purchasing a $300K home and you plan to paint a few rooms and maybe change out some light fixtures... you probably don't need to think too hard about the cost of your planned renovations relative to your offer price. But... if you are purchasing a $500K home and you plan to remodel the kitchen, remodel a bathroom, replace most of the flooring and most of the light fixtures... you probably should consider the cost of your planned renovations relative to your offer price. In this second scenario, you might end up spending another $100K... on top of the $500K purchase price of the home. As you might imagine, these renovations will not cause your home's value to increase to $600K. You will certainly see an increase in your home's value given those renovations, but you will have invested more in your home than it will be worth even after those renovations. If you purchase the home for $500K and spend $100K on renovations, you've put $600K into the home. If it is then worth $550K, you might be comfortable with that overall scenario if you plan to spend the next 10 years in the home. But... perhaps you'd rather try to pay $475K for the house, and then spend $100K on renovations, to have a total of $575K in the house... with the home that it will then still be worth $550K after renovations. We typically can't have a firm sense of the cost of your renovations, nor the home's value after those renovations are complete -- but the more renovations you plan to make, the more time we should spend discussing these numbers to guide your potential offer terms. | |
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We Will Likely See Fewer New Listings Over The Next Few Months |
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 It's getting to be that time of year... we're into November now with Thanksgiving just a few weeks away. Our market, like many markets, sees fewer homes coming on the market between about November 15 and January 1. Home sellers typically don't want to put their homes on the market over the holidays... and home buyers often don't want to move over the holidays. So... SELLERS - If you are selling your home over the next few months... you might see less buyer interest... but those buyers are likely to have fewer houses from which to choose. BUYERS - If you hope to buy a house over the next few months... you will likely see fewer options of new listings hitting the market... but if there is one of interest, you will likely have less competition from other buyers. We don't see a complete drop off in new listings or in home sales in November, December, January and February... but they are typically the four slowest months of the year in our local real estate market. | |
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Detached Homes Are Proportionally More Prevalent In Rockingham County Than In Virginia |
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 While we might currently be seeing more new townhouses being built (and bought) than detached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, when we look at Rockingham County's housing stock... there is a greater share of detached homes here than there are across Viriginia. Looking at all of Rockingham County's housing stock... 73% of existing homes are detached single family homes. In Virginia, only 61.5% of the housing stock is comprised of detached single family homes. Many of the recently proposed new housing developments in the City and County are for townhouses and/or apartments -- so we might slowly see the figures above shift over time, but for now, we have quite a few more detached homes (proportionally) in our overall housing stock than is seen when looking at the entirety of Virginia. | |
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How Much Should (The Population Of) Rockingham County Grow? |
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 I think this has been a popular topic of conversation for all 21 of the years that I have been working in real estate here in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Is the population of Rockingham County growing too quickly? The chart above (Population Growth) is pulled from the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan. Over the past 30 years (1990 - 2020) we have seen an average of a 1.26% growth in the County population per year. This has resulted in an increase of 26,275 people. Over the next 30 years (2020 - 2050) we are estimated to see an average of a 0.74% growth in the County population per year. This will result in an increase of 20,724 people. So, per the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan... it seems that we will be growing more slowly over the next 30 years (by percentage and by number) as compared to the growth we have seen over the past 30 years. Is this 0.74% per year the right amount of growth? I imagine there are some who would say it's just right... some who would say it's way too much... and some who might say it is not enough. | |
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More Than Half Of New Home Buyers Are Buying Attached Homes |
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 Most buyers of new homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are buying attached homes... though just barely. 52% of new home buyers (191) bought attached homes over the past year 48% of new home buyers (178) bought detached homes over the past year Two reasons come to mind as to why we are seeing just as many (or slightly more) buyers buying new attached homes as detached homes... [1] It's what the builders are building. [2] The price point of attached homes is more affordable. Here's how the median sales price of detached and attached homes compare over the past 12 months... Detached Homes = Median Sales Price of $406,250 ($210/SF) Attached Homes = Median Sales Price of $328,955 ($198/SF) Moving forward, I think both of these dynamics (what is being built, price of each) will cause plenty of future buyers of new homes to be buying townhouses. Who knows... within a few years we might be seeing 60% to 70% of new home buyers buying attached homes instead of detached homes. (Attached Homes = townhouses, duplexes, condos) | |
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Is It Reasonable For A Home Buyer To Ask A Seller To Fix Every Item Mentioned In A Home Inspection Report On A Resale Home? |
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 From a local home inspector... "The purpose of a home inspection is to provide the consumer with comprehensive information to help them make a confident and informed decision when buying a home. As we complete your home inspection we have two main goals. Our first goal is to inform you about the status of the structure and systems of the home. The second goal is to explain the unique future maintenance needs of the home." You will learn more about the home you are purchasing through the home inspection process -- and you will learn about deficiencies that might exist in the home -- and you will learn about upgrades you might make in the home. So, is it reasonable for a buyer of a resale home to ask a seller to fix or address every item mentioned in a home inspection report? Usually, no, that is not reasonable. In addition to deficiencies found in a home, a home inspector is likely also going to be referencing... 1. Upgrades you might make to the home later. 2. Ways to make your home more energy efficient. 3. Parts of the home that were to code at the time it was built but that would be done differently now. So, if you're buying a home, don't plan to ask a seller to address every little thing in an inspection report. Focus, instead, on the most significant deficiencies in the home that would be the most costly or cumbersome for you to address after settlement. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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