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November Home Sales Surge with 12% Year Over Year Growth and 5% Increase in Median Price |
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 Happy Friday morning, friends! It's hard to believe there are only 19 days remaining in 2024! This year has flown by, and we'll soon be ringing in the New Year! Speaking of new beginnings, I'm excited to let you know about the latest news in our family - our son, Luke, is now also a Realtor!  Luke looks forward to helping individuals and families navigate the real estate market in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area and is also continuing his studies at JMU, pursuing a dual degree in Independent Scholars and Communication Studies with minors in Entrepreneurship and Honors Interdisciplinary Studies. In some other fun news, The Steel Wheels are hosting another Winter Roots concert in February at JMU's Wilson Hall. You can find the details of the concert here, buy tickets here... and... enter to win a pair of free tickets here! And now... after all that... let's hit the real estate data...  First up... look at those November home sales!?! Last November there were only 72 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... this November... 130 home sales!?! This took me by surprise. Even if we considered November 2023 to be a bit slower than normal, when we look back at November 2022 there were only 93 home sales... so this November was certainly a surprising surge of home sales for our market. This surge of home sales in November lead to -- no surprise here -- continued improvement in how this year's home sales compare to last year. We have now seen 12% more home sales this year than last in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County when looking at 11 months of data. Of note... the 1,254 home sales seen thus far in 2024 is still quite a bit lower than the 1,482 home sales seen in the first 11 months of 2022. And how about those prices? The median sales price for all homes sold in 2024 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County is now approaching $350,000... which is a 5% increase compared to the median of $330,000 seen last year. Moving on to look at few sub-sections of the market, first let's see what's happening in the detached home market - which excludes townhouses, duplexes and condos...  The main metric I have highlighted above is the median sales price in 2024 compared to 2023. A year ago the median sales prices of detached homes was $350,000... and we are now quickly approaching a median sales price of $400,000 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! This marks an 11% increase in the median sales price in the course of a year. Meanwhile, in the "attached homes" market -- which mainly includes townhouses but also duplexes and condos...  The median sales price is not climbing quite as quickly for townhouses, duplexes and condos... but that median sales price has eclipsed $300,000 for the first time in 2024. We can also learn a bit more about the nuances of the local real estate market but breaking things down between the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Here are the numbers for the City...  As you will note in the top half of the chart above... we have seen 9% fewer home sales in the City of Harrisonburg this year compared to last year... but as shown in the bottom half of the chart above... the median sales price has risen 5% to $295,000. Let's compare these figures to Rockingham County... you'll find they are quite a bit different...  In contrast to the 9% decline in the number of City sales... we're seeing a 19% increase in the number of County sales -- though the median sales price in the County has increased by 5% over the past year, just as the City price has increased by 5%. Slicing and dicing the data one more time, let's look at new home sales compared to existing (resale) home sales. First up, new home sales...  My oh my how the new homes are being built, and are selling. We have seen a 32% increase in the number of new homes that have sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham Count this year (364) compared to last year (276) though - interestingly - we're right back to about the level (374) where we were two years ago. The existence of newly built homes in our community continues to be a significant factor in our overall housing market. And the existing home sales... did they increase by 32% Nope...  We are seeing an increase in existing home sales (+5%) this year... but nowhere near the 32% increase seen in new homes. This is not too surprising, as many homeowners simply do not want to sell their homes right now given the super low mortgage interest rates that many homeowners still have on their current mortgages. Now, then, you made it past the charts... let's see what we can learn from some graphs showing the latest trends in our local market...  This graph (above) paints the picture more clearly than the chart of data earlier on -- the 130 home sales in November 2024 was unexpectedly high -- way higher than last November (72 sales) and also well above the average (112) of 2020 through 2023. But, remember, this high number of closed sales in November 2024 would have been the result of buyers (and sellers) signing contracts in September or October... since it takes some time to get from contract to closing. Thus, we'll look ahead a bit further on in this report to see what contract activity took place in November 2024 to better predict home sales activity in December 2024. But first, how is 2024 stacking up compared to prior years?  Home sales are on the rise again! After declining in 2022 and 2023, we are now seeing an increase in the number of home sales taking place in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The 1,254 home sales seen in the first 11 months of 2024 puts us 12% ahead of last year. Visualized differently, here's how the trajectory of home sales and home prices have changed over the past year...  After multiple years of 10% annual increases in the median sales price (only one year of that type of increase is pictured above) we are now seeing a more modest 5% increase in the median sales price over the past year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. I think this is more likely to be what we see moving forward as well -- a 5% (ish) increase in prices over the course of a year. Meanwhile, the number of homes selling has certainly rebounded over the past year... bottoming out around 1,206 annual home sales a year ago, and now back up to 1,339 annual home sales. How does the current number of home sales compare to some past years, particularly pre-Covid? Let's take a look...  Looking back to the pre-Covid days (2016-2019) we were seeing an average of about 1,300 home sales per year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Then, Covid. During the pandemic and it's aftermath, which included super (super) low mortgage interest rates -- we saw the annual pace of home sales quickly climb above 1,400 then 1,500 then 1,600 to then crest at 1,673 in 2021. But then, as mortgage interest rates rose (and home prices rose) the number of home sales fell rather quickly - back down to 1,206 in 2023. This year, however, with 1,254 home sales in the first 11 months, it seems likely we will get back to that 1,300-ish level by December 31. So, maybe we are now back to the 1,300 home sales a year range, after having been quite far above it, and then a good bit below it. Stay tuned in 2025 to see how this plays out. Now, about that contract activity...  You can see it clearly here (above) that a crazy high number of contracts in October 2024 was what lead to the crazy high number of closed home sales in November 2024. So what shall we expect over the next few months? The 91 contracts signed in November 2024 was a normal-ish number of contracts for a November -- it was higher than the 78 we saw last year, but slightly lower than the 2020-2023 average of 97 contracts. Thus, we should likely see around 80 - 95 home sales close in December 2024. With all of those closings in November, are there still quite a few homes under contract right now? Sort of, kind of...  Pending sales were higher than expected at the end of September and end of October... but perhaps unsurprisingly because of all of the closed sales in November... the pending sales count is lower at the end of November than we might have otherwise expected. This is also an indicator that we'll see a bit of a slower month of closed sales in December and likely in January -- though this is somewhat to be expected in these winter months. And inventory levels -- how do they compare to last year?  There are significantly fewer homes on the market now as compared to a year ago. Last September through November we saw inventory levels of 206 to 230 homes for sale -- while we are seeing a more consistent 160 to 165 homes for sale during the same timeframe this year. Last year's higher inventory levels were mostly a result of rapidly increasing mortgage interest rates that slowed the market, causing inventory to start building. About those mortgage interest rates...  They've been up, they've been down, they've been all around!?! Mortgage interest rates were steadily declining for quite a few months in the middle of 2024 (May - Aug) but they have now increased again, getting closer to 7%. I think we will likely see mortgage interest rates continue to fluctuate between 6% and 7% over the course of the next year. If you're waiting to buy until rates get below 6%, it might be a long wait. Now, for a brief summary of the big picture and the latest trends in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market... [1] We are seeing 12% more home sales this year than last. [2] The median sales price has increased by 5% over the past year. [3] Detached homes are increasing in value faster than attached homes. [4] We are seeing a decrease in City home sales and an increase in County home sales. [5] We are seeing a much larger year over year increase in new home sales than existing home sales. [6] Inventory levels remain relatively low. [7] Mortgage interest rates continue to stick between 6% and 7%. So, as we prepare for 2025... Home Buyers should connect with a great lender, get a preapproval letter in hand, and go see houses within the first few days that the hit the market. Home Sellers should be realistic in the pricing of their homes given that prices are not increasing as quickly and mortgage interest rates are remaining quite high. Homeowners who do not plan to sell should enjoy their home, their likely low mortgage interest rate, and enjoy not having to engage in what can be a hectic and/or stressful process of selling and buying a home. As you think about YOUR year ahead, if it might include a housing transition (buying, selling, both) feel free to reach out so that we can chat about the market, the process, your hopes and dreams and so that I can know how to best support you in that potential move. You can contact me most easily by phone/text at 540-578-0102 or by email here. Until next year (!) have a wonderful remainder of 2024 - and I hope that you have the opportunity to spend some quality time over the next few weeks hanging out with, laughing with, having fun with, the people in your life who bring you joy! Recent Articles:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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