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The Future of North Valley Pike (Route 11 North) |
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 There is a slowly growing area just north of Harrisonburg that you may not have heard of or visited, but there are a variety of factors that may make it a growth area over the next several to many years.  A strategic plan has been created for this North Valley Pike corridor, that suggests turning an existing section of Route 11 into a main street area, with most through traffic diverted to a new road. For an overview with lots of helpful links, read the post on hburgnews.  A research and technology park has been established amidst this corridor on 365 acres, owned and operated by Rockingham County.  SRI International has established a 25-acre campus in the above-referenced research and technology park, and opened the Center for Advanced Drug Research, which is a "state-of-the-art research facility for conducting systems biology research in the areas of biodefense and neglected diseases."  An attractive subdivision of single family homes is being developed in this corridor area (I am marketing this subdivision) with prices starting in the low $200,000's.  A new elementary school was recently built on Smithland Road, not too far from this North Valley Pike corridor. This has created new traffic flow patterns, bringing greater awareness to the north side of Harrisonburg. While most development has taken place just southeast of Harrisonburg in the recent past, the area just north of Harrisonburg will be a key area to watch over the next 3 to 20 years. | |
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The State Of The Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market |
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Yesterday's Daily News Record featured an article on the short term rental situation at Massanutten Resort. The latest update is that: "The Rockingham County Planning Commission is scheduled to continue a hearing it began in November about a zoning ordinance amendment, which, if approved by the Board of Supervisors, will allow the rentals and, in theory, end the debate." It has been an interesting four years (wow --- four years) that this debate has been going on, and it made me stop to think about the state of the Massanutten Resort housing market. Below is a brief summary of changes in that market over the past four years, within the context of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market as a whole.  As can be seen above, Massanutten has seen a steady decline in the number of home sales taking place in each of the past four years. That said, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market have seen a very similar decline. The only deviation here is that the Massanutten market continued to decline rather significantly (35% drop) between 2008 and 2009 while the rate of decline slowed down somewhat in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market as a whole (13% drop).  The graph above shows changes in the median sales price of homes in the Massanutten Resort market as compared to changes in median sales price for the market as a whole. The difference is staggering! Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have seen a median sales price decline of 3.4% over the past four years. During the same time period, Massanutten Resort has suffered a 16% decline in median sales price. It's impossible to know how much of a correlation exists between the soft Massanutten Resort market and the short term rental issue, but I believe this issue has certainly played some role in the changes depicted above. Also . . . enjoy the second edition of Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio: Assessments via Harrisonburg Real Estate Radio [11:55] | |
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6,500 Reasons Why It's Great If You Have Owned And Lived In Your Home For Five Or More Years! |
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 Somehow, the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers is getting all of the attention, meaning that most people don't even know about the $6,500 tax credit available to you if you've lived in your home for five years. If you have owned your home for five or more years, you will (almost certainly) receive a $6,500 tax credit if you buy your next home by April 30th, 2010. To clarify -- you must have a contract on the house by April 30th and close by June 30th. Many people that I talk to who would be eligible for this $6,500 tax credit don't even know that it exists. If you're in this situation and planning to buy a new house in 2010, you really ought to consider making a move in the first four to six months of the year. Click here for more information (from the IRS) about both tax credits. Again, to try to really drive this point home: If you've owned your house (and lived in it) for more than five years, you are very likely eligible for a $6,500 tax credit if you buy a new home by the spring/summer. | |
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2010 City of Harrisonburg Real Estate Reassessment |
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The City of Harrisonburg has reassessed all real property as they do each year, and it appears that there wasn't a significant (overall) shift in assessments. Of the 12,000 parcels of real estate, nearly 8,700 had a change in their assessed value, with 3,100 of the values decreasing and roughly 5,600 increasing. That is to say.....
If you don't believe your assessment is accurate, you can appeal the assessment starting the week of December 7th. Or you can express your frustration (or delight) in the comment section below. The bigger (MUCH BIGGER) news (or controversy) coming down the pike is the Rockingham County real estate reassessment coming in early 2010. These assessed values haven't adjusted in four years, so many people will likely see big increases in their tax bills despite feeling that they have seen no gain (or a loss) in value over the most recent few years. Stay tuned! | |
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Has The First-Time Buyer Tax Credit Pulled More Buyers Into The Market In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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Warning: This analysis, though numerically and statistically based, is an abstract answer to a nearly impossible question.  The question, raised today by Chad, is whether the first-time buyer tax credit (that was set to end on November 30, 2009 but has now been extended) has pulled any additional buyers into the market. I say.....maybe, but.... The chart above shows how I attempted to answer that question. For each year between 2000 and 2009, I determined the percentage of home sales that were at or below 80% of the median sales price that year. We can assume that most first time buyers are going to be in that general price range (under $93k for 2000, and under $152k for 2009). The chart, thus, shows how that segment of the market has fluctuated in relative size over the decade that is coming to a close. As you'll notice, the portion of supposed first-time buyers dropped off between 2005 and 2007 --- likely because home prices were increasing (mostly between 2005 and 2006) and lending requirements were becoming more restrictive (mostly between 2006 and 2007). But....the trend then reverses starting in 2008, and then continues in that new trajectory in 2009. There are thus (perhaps) more first-time buyers in our market today because of the tax credit, then there otherwise would have been. Yes, I know --- lots of mental leaps there. The additional caveat that I offered Chad is that while I believe the first-time home buyer tax credit did and is pulling buyers into the market now who might have otherwise waited until 2010 or 2011 to purchase --- I also think there have been first-time buyers that would have purchased in 2008 and 2009 that were waiting because of the economy. Thus --- the tax credit is borrowing buyers from the future who really would have been today's buyer anyhow. Again --- all of this is largely speculative, as I can't truly tell you the number of first-time buyers in our market, but hopefully this analysis sheds a bit of light on the topic. I welcome your suggestions for additional analysis to answer this question. | |
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Erickson Avenue / Stone Spring Road Connector; Southeast Connector |
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Almost a year ago I mentioned that a new road connecting Erickson Avenue to Stone Spring Road was moving forward. Construction is now moving forward, with lots of progress starting on the Erickson Avenue end of the connector. Below is a map showing where that will be situated (click on the map for a larger version) and this is a web site with more details. City Portion of Erickson Avenue / Stone Spring Road Connector:  The road shown above lies in the City, but the Connector will continue into the County, all the way to Route 33 East near Boyers Road. The map below shows an overlay of the approved map from VDOT over top of both an aerial and road view from Google Maps. Click on either for a larger view. Rockingham County Southeast Connector (1 of 2 portions)   As far as I can tell, the County portion will cut through the new campus of Rockingham Memorial Hospital, and then cross through Boyers Road before connecting with Route 33. From what I have heard, Boyers Road will become a cul-de-sac before reaching Route 33. | |
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Can A House In Harrisonburg Zoned R-1 Be Rented? |
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 This is a relatively common question, that usually takes one of the following forms:
The R-1, Single-Family Residential District is intended for low-density, relatively spacious single-family residential development . . . Primary use is for single families, owner occupied dwellings can rent additional rooms, but not to more than two persons, as long as no new kitchen facilities are included. Non-owner occupied dwellings can rent to only one other person, as long as no new kitchen facilities are included. This district is the most restrictive zoning classification for occupancy. To draw out a few points:
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Mayor Kai Degner on Harrisonburg's upcoming Mayor's Sustainability Summit |
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Get up close and personal (thanks to unanticipated loud construction equipment) with Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner, and hear about the upcoming Mayor's Sustainability Summit to be held in downtown Harrisonburg. As Kai mentioned, the agenda for the Summit will be formed around the interests and desires of those in attendance, but may likely include topics such as:
Mayor's Sustainability Summit Saturday, May 30, 2009 9:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. Starting and ending in Court Square Theater View more details by clicking here. | |
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Who is getting involved in the conversations about local news and issues? |
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 One of the local blogs I read is hburgnews.com -- if you're not already reading it, you definitely should! One phenomenon that has been great to observe is seeing local government employees engaging in online conversations. One recent example is on a post about Delayed Green Arrows around Harrisonburg, where a several Harrisonburg staff people explain some recent improvements in traffic engineering. In the ensuing discussion concerns are brought forward and are then addressed by the city employees. Then, Brad Reed (Traffic Analyst with Harrisonburg Public Works) goes on to say... I'm excited to say that we will be finished with the new Traffic Engineering Division website in the near future. The site will go over the basics of how the city's signals are timed and coordinated and will give everyone a look at the components used to operate a signalized intersection. We would love to hear everyone's comments and suggestions, which is why the new site will also include a comment form dedicated to signal-related concerns. I encourage everyone to use the new form when it is released. In the meantime, if you would like to follow up or have any questions, please feel free to call the Public Works Department at (540) 434-5928. Another great example of engagement by the local government is outgoing City Councilman Charlie Chenault's willingness to jump in to provide the facts or clear up misperceptions. I appreciate you, my blog readers, who often comment and provide your feedback here --- and I recommend you also read hburgnews, and jump into the conversations happening in that forum. It's a great way to not only know about the latest news in Harrisonburg, but also to be a part of conversations that will shape our area's future. Here's to open, transparent, responsive local goverment! | |
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The time-value of an interest free $7500 loan to first-time home buyers |
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Over the past few weeks I have been explaining to many first time home buyers that if they buy a home before July 1, 2009 they can take advantage of a $7,500 tax credit. Some, though, have been less than enthused because the full $7,500 tax credit has to be repaid over 15 years. Yes, that's right --- even though you will pay $7,500 less in taxes for the tax year in which you make your first home purchase, you do have to repay these tax savings in years three through seventeen. I thought I'd take a look at the value of what is essentially an interest free $7,500 loan. For this analysis, I am examining the aggregate savings from not paying interest on the $7,500, using a current interest rate of 6%.  As you can see --- over the course of the 17 years, you save a total of $4,050. Thus --- even though you are paying back the $7,500 tax credit, it is still at a significant ($4,050) savings. | |
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$7500 interest-free loans, and other perks of the housing bill |
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The president is expected to sign a new housing bill today (July 29, 2008) that may have significant implications for current and hopeful homeowners. Here are a few highlights:
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What Is The Big Economic News in Page County?? |
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I received this letter today. Does anyone have any insight into Thursday's announcement? | |
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Is Growth Good Or Evil? |
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 Well, perhaps we don't have to narrow it down with such extreme labels, but there has been some interesting debate over the subject over at hburgnews.com, all of which began with the issue of funding disappearing for the expansion of Port Republic Road. Here are some of my thoughts, though I would love to hear other perspectives on the subject: WHY GROWTH OCCURS: Desirable area -> people want to live here -> they need a place to live -> many want to buy -> more homes are needed -> land is rezoned -> lots are developed -> houses are built. While growth stems from a positive situation (an area being desirable), it is also true that:
But what is the alternative? To halt growth? To do so, a locality would need to either:
Taking either of these steps would (in my opinion) have some rather negative consequences:
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Real Property Tax Semantics (City of Harrisonburg) |
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Currently, property owners in the City of Harrisonburg are taxed at a rate of $0.59 per $100 of assessed value. In other words, a $225,000 home is a tax liability of $1,328 per year. Thus, since real estate values almost always increase in Virginia, unless the City lowers its tax rate, taxes will also almost always increase! And so, this year (2008), the City of Harrisonburg finds itself going through the process of notifying Harrisonburg property owners that they are proposing a real property tax increase. No, they aren't increasing the tax rate ($0.59), but the effective taxes will increase because of increased property values. Here are the details of the changes in the City:
Do you have questions or opinions about this tax increase? You are welcome to voice them here on my blog, in the comment section. Additionally, a public hearing will take place on May 13, 2008 at 7:00 PM in the Harrisonburg Council Chambers located at 409 South Main Street, Harrisonburg, Virginia. | |
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Increased Rockingham County Property Taxes in 2008? |
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The current tax rate for real estate in Rockingham County is $0.58 per $100 of assessed value. ($200k home / 100 * .58 = $1,160 annually). The proposed budget for the 2008-2009 fiscal year would increase property tax rates for the 2008 calendar year by $0.02 to $0.60 per $100 of assessed value. ($200k home / 100 * .60 = $1,200 annually). To see for yourself, scroll through the budget below until you get to the bottom section where I have circled the tax rates in red. For a more detailed view, click on the budget to download a larger image. To inspect the budget, visit the County Administrator's Office at 20 East Gay Street in Harrisonburg. To provide feedback to the Board of Supervisors, attend the public hearing on April 9, 2008 at 6:00 p.m. at Turner Ashby High School, in Bridgewater.  | |
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Harrisonburg Planning Commission -- Public Hearing |
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Don't miss the Harrisonburg Planning Commission public hearing meeting on Wednesday, March 12 at 7:00 p.m. in the City Council Chambers at 409 South Main Street. As usual, it's not easy to tell what some of the proposals actually mean --- but I have included a summary and explanation of the ones that I can decipher, and I welcome anyone else's insight. Again, the information below is what I can piece together about the proposals from various sources. Attend the meeting to find out more about the proposals, or to voice your support or concerns.
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Cause & Effect :: Development Patterns & Traffic Problems |
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 Another key thought from last week's Smart Growth Symposium put on the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association is that . . .Distributed neighborhoods, that are not integrated into the community, lead to more driving, and thus, more traffic. Many new residential developments in this area (think of Route 33 East) are:
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Harrisonburg Water & Sewer Connection Fees Increase |
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 Most homeowners, or those who hope to be homeowners in the future may not have paid too much attention to the news earlier this month that Harrisonburg water and sewer connection fees will be increasing. But maybe we all should have taken note . . .The Change Example #1: three-quarter-inch water meter --- in this example, the sum of the water and sewer connection fees will soon be $7,000, instead of the existing $2,000. This size would be typical for a single family residence. Example #2: a six-inch water meter --- in this example, the sum of the water and sewer connection fees will soon be $300,000, instead of the existing $17,500. This size would be typical for a large commercial project. Peruse the current fee schedule here, and the new schedule here (effective July 1, 2008). The Effect As Todd Rhea, of Clark & Bradshaw, commented at last week's Smart Growth Symposium, when builders or developers are faced with new fees, we're fooling ourselves if we think they absorb those costs. They ultimately get passed on to the buyer. With this logic, one could argue that city housing costs will increase universally by $5,000 come July. Action Item Builders and developers should note that the fees are charged at the time of obtaining the building permit --- so as long as a lot has a building permit prior to July 1, 2008, you can take advantage of the lower fee schedule. For a developer of a major residential or commercial project, this could equate to hundreds of thousands of dollars of savings. | |
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Will Rockingham County Be Paved Over? |
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I have heard some people talk about development as if in the next few years, or decades, all of Rockingham County will be developed --- with the farm land destroyed, and our history no longer preserved. Below I'll try to put that thought in the context of actual land use, but for the record --- I don't think many at today's Smart Growth Symposium thought that the above statement is true. (Lest anyone conclude that I am referring to any of the attendees).  The data above is extracted from the Rockingham County Comprehensive Plan, particularly page 18 of the section on Strategies, Policies and Actions. Here's the full list of how Rockingham County land is being used:
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In Theory, Construction Is Booming! |
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 Are builders gearing up? (Daily News Record) Yes, and no! Read on... Building Permits Issued Per Year:
So....the number of building permits has definitely increased, BUT a large portion of the City of Harrisonburg building permits are for multi-family student housing projects. Though not having conducted a wide survey, I would guess:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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