Inventory
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Comparison Shopping (For Homes) Is Difficult In A Low Inventory Market |
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 If you were going to buy a ____, it would probably be nice to look at multiple options, compare them, and then decide which one to buy, right? That is often possible with buying a home, whenever we have a balanced market (or a buyer's market) when buyers can find multiple houses on the market at any given time that might work for them. A buyer would then go view multiple houses, compare them, and decide if they want to make an offer on one of the available homes. These days (and for the past few years) we have been in a strong sellers market, with very low inventory levels. The same number of houses have typically been available for a buyer to consider... but they are often evaluating them one at a time, every few weeks... instead of all at once. Sorta like this...
Basically, home buyers have had to make a decision about whether to buy a house... one house a time... without the ability to compare multiple options that are available at the same time. That may eventually change, in some or most price ranges, if we start to see inventory levels increase over time. Until then, it can be a challenge to be a thoughtful and intentional comparison shopper when trying to buy a home! | |
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So You Think Home Prices Will Decline? We Would Likely Need To See Much Higher Inventory Levels First! |
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 It's all about supply and demand. Over the past few years there have been plenty of home sellers... but WAY more home buyers. This resulted in buyers fighting over each new listing, competing to offer the most compelling terms, often being willing to pay a higher and higher price. Basically... [ Plenty Of Sellers ] + [ Way More Buyers ] = [ Rising Prices ] Some think that given higher mortgage interest rates and seemingly fewer buyers in the market, that we are certainly going to see home prices start to decline in this area. I suspect that will only happen if we see significantly higher inventory levels (of homes available for sale) such that sellers find themselves fighting over each new buyer, competing to be willing to offer buyers the most compelling terms, often being willing to accept a lower and lower price. (I'm exaggerating a bit here, but I just flipped the language above to show you what I mean.) That type of a market would look like this... [ Lots Of Sellers ] + [ Not Many Buyers ] = [ Falling Prices ] Until and unless we actually see measurable, significant increases in inventory levels, what I think we'll actually see is... [ Plenty Of Sellers ] + [ Fewer But Plenty Of Buyers ] = [ Stable Or Rising Prices ] Feel free to offer up your counterpoints or contrary perspectives. I'd love to hear them! | |
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Inventory Levels Creeping Slowly Upward, To Higher Low Levels |
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 Inventory levels - the number of homes for sale at any given time - have been creeping upward for the past 6+ months. With 163 homes for sale, we are now seeing more homes for sale than we have seen at any time since late 2020. The gray bars above show the number of homes on the market at the end of each month. The red line above shows a moving three month average to show the overall trend more clearly. To put this in a bit of context though, these new highs are actually still pretty low... Homes for Sale In...
So, yes, July 2022 inventory levels are higher than a year ago... but are also much lower than any other recent July... | |
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Do Inventory Levels Rise (and fall) With Mortgage Interest Rates? |
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 Q: Do Inventory Levels Rise (and fall) With Mortgage Interest Rates? A: Sometimes Interest rates are on the rise right now... and inventory levels are rising as well. Interest rates were falling for quite a few years just prior to 2021... and inventory levels also fell during that timeframe. So... do inventory levels just track right along with mortgage interest rates? Sometimes, but not always, it seems. Of note... The graph above shows a 12 month average of the number of homes for sale (blue line) and a 12 month average of a 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate (orange line). So, the last data point (June 2022) is showing the average number of homes for sale in the 12 months prior to and including June 2022... and the average mortgage interest rate in the 12 months prior to and including June 22. Looking back, then, to the beginning of 2015, we can see four general trends taking place, three of which I have labeled. [0] The unlabeled portion of the graph (2015-2016) showed very little upward or downward movement in inventory levels or interest rates. [1] Between 2016 and 2018 we saw interest rates rising, but inventory levels falling. This runs counter to the premise proposed above, that inventory levels rise and fall as interest rates do the same. [2] Between 2019 and 2021, indeed, interest rates declined, and inventory levels did as well. [3] Since late 2021 we have seen interest rates start to climb (and even faster and further in 2022) and inventory levels have started to climb as well. So... yes, there seems to be some connection between interest rates and inventory levels... at some times... but not always. The unspoken here, is the main connection between these two factors... which is home buyers. As interest rates decline, in theory there are more buyers, which would in theory, cause inventory levels to decline. As interest rates rise, in theory there are fewer buyers, which would in theory, cause inventory levels to rise. Beyond all of these theoretical connections and consequences, what does this mean for 2022 and 2023 in our local housing market? So long as interest rates are rising, there is a decent chance that inventory levels will rise somewhat as well, as some buyers won't be able to afford some houses any longer... or will choose to limit their home buying budget. The big question, of course, is whether it will be a four part chain reaction... [1] Interest Rates Rise [2] Fewer Buyers Buy Homes [3] Inventory Levels Rise [4] Prices Flatten Out or Fall Thus far in our local market, we are seeing... [1] Interest Rates Rising [2] More Buyers Buying (not fewer as predicted above) [3] Inventory Levels Rising (slightly, not significantly) [4] Prices Are Still Rising (not flattening out or falling as predicted above) Do keep in mind that every housing market trend you see in the national news may or may not actually be representative of what is happening in our local market. | |
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Housing Inventory Levels Seem To Be Slowly Rising, With One Third Of Them Being New Homes |
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 There are almost 150 homes for sale now in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... we're at 147 at the moment... and this would be the first time since late 2020 that there were 150 options for home buyers. But... do note that more than a third of them (53 of 147) are new homes. This isn't a bad thing... it's just that new homes in new home communities are only going to work for some buyers... they are particular property types, at particular price points in particular locations. Higher inventory levels means more choices for buyers which could mean -- if inventory levels were to keep climbing -- that there wouldn't be quite as fierce of competition for some new listings. That said, I have been a part of several "multiple offer" scenarios over the past two weeks, so the overall market isn't necessarily calming down or cooling off yet. | |
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Inventory Levels Have Been Dropping For Almost An Entire Decade |
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 At the end of last month there were only 127 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Five years ago, at the end of April 2017, there were 411 homes for sale. Five years before that, at the end of April 2012, there were 733 homes for sale. Home buyers over the past year have had fewer options of what to buy at any given point in time than ever before in the past decade, and possibly ever before, ever. The low inventory levels don't mean fewer buyers are buying -- in fact, more buyers are buying on an annual basis than ever before. The low inventory levels are an indication that there is much more buyer demand than seller supply, so new listings get scooped up (go under contract) within a matter of days -- thus, not contributing to the inventory levels at the end of the month. | |
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Many Would Be Buyers Are Finding Zero Homes For Sale Right Now |
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 It's a strange time right now -- there are quite a few segments of the market with absolutely no options for buyers. For example, let's say you wanted to buy a resale home just east of Harrisonburg, in the Spotswood High School district, with at least 2,000 square feet, and four bedrooms... ...and you could spend up to $700,000... ...you should have plenty of options, right? Nope. There are currently... zero homes for sale (that aren't under contract) in the Spotswood High School district, under $700K, with 2000+ SF and 4+ bedrooms. So, buyers, as much as you might want to buy -- you will be at the mercy of waiting for sellers to be ready to sell. And sellers, these extraordinarily low inventory levels in many segments of the market may very well mean that you will have lots of early interest in your home... and you may very well secure a contract with very favorable terms! | |
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Will Inventory Levels (of resale homes) Increase At All This Spring? |
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 Many homeowners thinking about selling their homes this spring are considering selling sooner rather than later... because of the super low inventory levels right now. There are certainly houses on the market for sale, but many are new builds, and thus if a buyer wants to go ahead and buy and be able to move into their home, they are likely trying to do so with very few houses from which to choose. The logic of listing your home sooner rather than later is something along the lines of.... List Now = zero (or very little) competition from other sellers List Later = likely more competition from other sellers I totally agree with this logic, and listing sooner rather than later makes a lot of sense, though I also am not 100% sure we'll ever get to the point this spring or summer where you will be listing your home for sale amongst much competition from other sellers. After all, if eager buyers keep snapping up each new listing as it hits the market, the collective inventory of competing listings will never grow. So, yes, my first recommendation is to list your home sooner rather than later -- though it will probably work out just fine to list a bit later as well. P.S. Buyers -- sorry there are so few options for you!!! :-/ | |
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City of Harrisonburg Housing Inventory Levels Fall Below 20 Homes For Sale... For First Time Ever!? |
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 There are now fewer than 20 homes for sale in the entire City of Harrisonburg! As you can see, above, the number of homes for sale at any given time has been falling rather consistently over most of the past five years. The several times when you see inventory levels rising are typically in the spring season. These extremely low inventory levels do not mean that fewer houses have sold in the City over the past five years. Here are the annual City home sales during that timeframe...
So -- plenty of homes are selling in the City this year -- more, in fact, than any of the past five years. These extremely low inventory levels thus mainly mean that as soon as City homes are coming on the market they are almost always quickly going under contract -- keeping inventory levels at any given moment QUITE low! | |
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This Housing Inventory Crisis Is Likely YEARS In The Making |
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 Is this inventory issue a new one? Nope! It's been sneaking up on us for YEARS now! We haven't had PLENTY of homes on the market for years and we're JUST NOW all of a sudden seeing that drop off. The number of homes on the market at any given time has been declining for years. Thus, the only way to have not been in the situation we are in now (very, very few homes for sale) would have been if many new homes had been built over the past four to five years. Some homes were built, but not enough. Now, It will, unfortunately, take a long time (likely years) for our market to dig its way back out of this housing inventory crisis. The many new home communities in the planning or building stages will help -- but hundreds or thousands of new homes don't pop up over night. | |
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Are Inventory Levels Slowly Starting To Increase? |
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 We may (finally?) be seeing inventory levels creep up a bit in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. As shown above, after having dropped all the way down below 100 homes for sale -- inventory levels have increased over the past two months. We're still at basically all time lows other than what we've seen in the past six months -- so don't get to excited about the inventory levels rising -- but it's nice for the inventory levels not to be heading down even lower. Stay tuned as we see how inventory levels continue to adjust as we make our way through the rest of the summer and into the fall. | |
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The Housing Inventory Shortage Is Not Likely To Quickly Work Itself Out |
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 Did you hear that...
It's not happening on every house in every price range in every location -- but it (lots of showings, multiple offers) is happening very frequently these days. Clearly, there are waaaaaay more buyers in the market than there are sellers. And, sadly, it doesn't seem that this housing inventory shortage is not likely to work itself out anytime soon. After all...
So, alas, for the foreseeable future...
I wish I saw an easy or fast or near-term way out of this situation, but I'm not currently seeing it on the horizon. In theory, the answer is new construction of "for sale" homes at scale, but we're not there yet... | |
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Nearly 500 Buyers Secured Contracts On Homes In First Four Months of 2021 |
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 As shown above, for three of the past five years, around 430 - 440 buyers signed contracts to buy homes between January and April. Two years ago, in 2019, there was a bit more contract activity than normal with 466 buyers signing contracts to buy homes. But this year -- in 20201 -- we set new records! Nearly 500 (499) buyers (and sellers) signed contracts to buy (and sell) homes between January and April 2021. You might ask -- how is this possible -- I heard inventory levels are super low!? It actually works the other way around. It is not remarkable or mysterious that this many buyers secured contracts to buy homes despite low inventory levels... The inventory levels are so low because so many buyers secured contracts to buy homes! Buckle up - this seems bound to be a fast paced year in the local real estate market! | |
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Inventory Levels (# Of Houses For Sale) Hits New Low In Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Never have there been fewer homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Indeed, there are now fewer than 100 homes on the market in all of the City and County. We have never seen that few homes on the market at the end of the month in our area. As you can imagine, this means that buyers have very, very, very few choices for what they might buy at any given time. Certainly, plenty of homes are coming on the market, but they are almost all going under contract VERY quickly, leaving inventory numbers very low. It's at this time of year that we would typically expect inventory numbers to start rising -- but not in 2021! If you're hoping to buy a home in the next few months, you should...
It's a crazy time out there! | |
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Buying vs Building When Hit With Low Inventory AND High Building Costs |
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 Typically, the tension between buying vs building is one of: 1. Goals 2. Money 3. Timing If you build, you can get the house you want, but you'll pay more for it and it will take a lot of time and attention. 1. Goals = Win 2. Money = Lose 3. Timing = Lose If you buy an existing home, you won't get exactly what you want, but you will pay less for the house and the process will not be a drain on your time. 1. Goals = Lose 2. Money = Win 3. Timing = Win Don't let my oversimplification of this issue fool you -- this is something that buyers can get stuck debating for months, or even years, often while looking at resale homes to try to convince themselves to buy instead building. AND -- two current market conditions are making it an even more complicated decision...
If you are stuck in this quagmire, I'd be happy to meet with you to talk through some of the pros and cons and try to help you come to a decision you'll be pleased with in the short and long term. | |
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Some Would Be Home Buyers Are Deciding NOT To Buy Given The CRAZY Housing Market |
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 Many buyers are feeling a bit overwhelmed by the prospect of trying to buy in the current CRAZY housing market. They find themselves asking...
If you're trying to buy a house right now and you are having some (or all) of these thoughts -- you are not alone. There are many reasons to persevere and to keep on pursuing that goal of buying a house -- and most buyers do seem to be doing that -- though there are also some buyers who are throwing in the towel. Here's how that might look...
It is times like these that I am thankful for all of the counseling classes I took while I was completing my graduate degree from JMU. So, if you think you want to buy, but are are nervous wreck because of the hectic housing market -- feel free to reach out. I'm happy to meet with you to chat about the process and the market. We can call it a home buying meeting or a counseling session -- whichever makes you feel more comfortable. ;-) | |
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How To Solve The Housing Inventory Crisis |
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 Here are the top three ways to solve our current housing inventory crisis...
No, but really. Keep reading to find out why... Let's think about it for a moment... here are how there come to be new listings for sale...
So, as you can see, all of these ways in which new listings come about are not likely (in the current market at the current time) to help us dig our way out of our local housing inventory crisis. So, what's the answer? Basically, the only way we will make meaningful progress towards addressing this crisis in housing inventory is if quite a few new homes are built! Here's hoping that area builders will be building some new homes for buyers to buy in 2021 and beyond in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! | |
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Low Inventory Levels AND Lots Of Listings |
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 It's an interesting conundrum. Inventory levels are really (really!) low right now, but there are plenty of new listings that will come on the market this month and next month and nearly every month this year. So, how and why does this happen? Well, if there aren't many listings... ...and then a bunch of houses are listed for sale... ...but there are plenty of buyers in the market so that those new listings all go under contract quickly... ...we'll be left with... not many listings. The key factor keeping inventory levels so low right now are an abundant number of buyers in the market -- or trying to get into the market -- to buy a home. So long as that supply of buyers stayed steady and strong, we are likely to continue to see low inventory levels. So, if you are a buyer and are feeling glum about the very few choices you have today... ...be encouraged -- plenty of houses will be listed for sale in the next month or so... ...but maybe (sorry!) also be discouraged -- you will likely be competing with quite a few other buyers for each new listing. | |
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As A Home Buyer, You Have Never Had Fewer Options |
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 It's a tough time to be a home buyer. In most locations and price ranges there are VERY FEW homes for sale! As shown above, the number of homes for sale at any given time has drifted lower and lower and lower over the past 13 years to the very lowest point EVER this month with only 107 homes for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This shortage of housing inventory has quite a few impacts...
Moving forward into the spring season, which will eventually happen after another 5 to 10 snow storms...
So, welcome to yet another, stronger, seller's market as we look forward to spring 2021! | |
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Why Is Unmet Home Buyer Demand So High In Harrisonburg? |
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 Earlier this week I was chatting with some friends and clients who relocated out of Harrisonburg (out of state) nearly a decade ago. They are now looking to move back to Harrisonburg and are accurately observing that our local housing market is at a drastically different point now than it was a decade (+/-) ago when they left. The most pressing issue at hand for them, as soon-to-be buyers in this market, is the extraordinary high level of unmet home buyer demand. And so we pondered aloud why in the world buyer demand is so high in Harrisonburg. Here's my overly condensed thesis...
Put differently, with some make believe numbers, to illustrate the point... 2010 = population of 50,000 2020 = population of 55,000 Increased population = 5,000 5000 newly built housing options between 2010 and 2020:
The problem, then, is that many more than 500 (10%) of the new population want to buy single family detached homes -- but that is not what has been built over the past decade. Further exacerbating the problem is that plenty of the already existing 50,000 population also wants to move up to a single family detached home, putting more and more pressure on that segment of the market. So - the population is increasing and housing options are increasing, but the housing that is being created is not matching what the expanding population desires. Why!? Basically, it's all about profitability as a developer. For all the ways to develop a 10 acre parcel of land, this is a rough approximation of the ranking of their potential profitability...
At this point, most land being developed is not being developed for single family homes because that is not the most profitable way to develop the land. So long as student housing keeps being rented as soon as it is built, and non-student apartments keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses for sale keep being bought before they are built -- it remains relatively unlikely that land in or close to Harrisonburg will be developed for single family homes. I am now accepting recommendations for more cheery perspectives to write about next week. Call. Text. Email. Help! ;-) | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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