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If You Might Sell Your Home and Buy A New One In 2021 You Probably Have These Three Questions |
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![]() I've talked with several folks over the past few weeks who are thinking about possibly selling their homes this year and it struck me that they all had the same three basic questions. As I have reflected further, I have concluded that these really are the three main questions you should be focusing on if you are considering the sale of your home in 2021...
So, if there have been any conversations floating around your house lately about "maybe we should sell our house and buy a new one" but you have had a hard time figuring out where and how to start thinking about that possible transition, I'll point you to the three questions above. As a starting point for answering those questions, I can pop by your house for a brief meeting to address each of the three areas above...
There are certainly many more questions that you might already have, or that you will have along the way -- but these three questions seem to be the big picture questions that most seller/buyers have when they are considering selling and then buying. Feel free to be in touch if you'd like to schedule a time to meet to discuss these and any other questions. Most folks in this situation don't really know if they will actually sell and buy - which is quite OK. I'm happy to help explore the possibilities with you so you can figure out if a move makes sense for you. | |
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72 Apartments In Six Buildings Proposed in the City of Harrisonburg Adjacent To Planned Mixed Use Development In Rockingham County |
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![]() A new development, Stoney Ridge, is continuing to take shape near the DMV on Route 11 south in Harrisonburg, The majority of the development would exist in the County but a portion of the development land is in the City. The County portion of the development would include...
The City portion of the development would include...
A few downloads of interest... Harrisonburg City Council will consider the developer's request for the rezoning of the City portion of the development land at their meeting tonight. Planning Commission recommends approving this rezoning. City Council will also be considering a rezoning to allow for 142 apartments proposed for the intersection of Blue Ridge Drive and Country Club Road. Planning Commission recommends denying this rezoning. Update 2/11/2021: Per the 2/11/2021 Daily News Record, City Council approved this rezoning request. | |
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There Seems To Be A Backlog of Home Buyers |
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![]() If you're a buyer, it's hard to secure a contract on a house these days -- especially under $250K, even under $300K, especially in the City of Harrisonburg. It almost seems like there is a backlog of home buyers all frustrated from not having found something this past fall, or past summer, or past spring -- because homes under $250K or $300K are often seeing 10+ showings and multiple offers in the first two or three days on the market. What is this backlog of buyers causing?
It's a wild and crazy time right now to try to buy a home, at least partly because there is a larger than normal number of buyers frustrated that they haven't been able to buy in the past 6 to 12 months. Perhaps when spring arrives we'll see a rush of newly listed homes which will start to cut into this excess buyer demand? Or perhaps not. Stay tuned! | |
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Should You Sell Your Rental Property Now? |
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![]() This is not an uncommon train of thought of late...
So, how then should you think about whether to sell your rental property? It is, after all, a very strong sellers market. Some thoughts to consider...
Clearly, these are just some of the factors to consider when evaluating whether to sell your rental property. I'm happy to talk through your particular scenario with you, and we may also want to connect with your financial planner or accountant as well. Feel free to touch base if I can be of help to you as you think through these decisions. | |
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Why Is Unmet Home Buyer Demand So High In Harrisonburg? |
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![]() Earlier this week I was chatting with some friends and clients who relocated out of Harrisonburg (out of state) nearly a decade ago. They are now looking to move back to Harrisonburg and are accurately observing that our local housing market is at a drastically different point now than it was a decade (+/-) ago when they left. The most pressing issue at hand for them, as soon-to-be buyers in this market, is the extraordinary high level of unmet home buyer demand. And so we pondered aloud why in the world buyer demand is so high in Harrisonburg. Here's my overly condensed thesis...
Put differently, with some make believe numbers, to illustrate the point... 2010 = population of 50,000 2020 = population of 55,000 Increased population = 5,000 5000 newly built housing options between 2010 and 2020:
The problem, then, is that many more than 500 (10%) of the new population want to buy single family detached homes -- but that is not what has been built over the past decade. Further exacerbating the problem is that plenty of the already existing 50,000 population also wants to move up to a single family detached home, putting more and more pressure on that segment of the market. So - the population is increasing and housing options are increasing, but the housing that is being created is not matching what the expanding population desires. Why!? Basically, it's all about profitability as a developer. For all the ways to develop a 10 acre parcel of land, this is a rough approximation of the ranking of their potential profitability...
At this point, most land being developed is not being developed for single family homes because that is not the most profitable way to develop the land. So long as student housing keeps being rented as soon as it is built, and non-student apartments keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses keep being rented as soon as they are built, and townhouses for sale keep being bought before they are built -- it remains relatively unlikely that land in or close to Harrisonburg will be developed for single family homes. I am now accepting recommendations for more cheery perspectives to write about next week. Call. Text. Email. Help! ;-) | |
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What Are You Saying With The List Price Of Your Home? |
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![]() Let's say buyers, sellers and Realtors in our local market would all agree that a house is worth $275,000. Here are a variety of list prices that a seller might consider...
As you are pricing your home for sale, be intentional about the pricing as it relates to your home's market value so that you are saying the right thing to buyers -- and so that you will hopefully see the results you'd like to see. | |
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All Of The Developments On Boyers Road |
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Have you heard about that new development on Boyers Road? There are quite a few of them!
Those are all of the major developments I'm aware of along Boyers Road - but who knows what else is to come along this increasingly busy corridor! | |
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Rockingham County Completed (in August 2020) Purchase of 28.878 Acres for Stormwater Management |
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(view a larger image here) I'm late to the party. Thankfully, someone asked if this land transfer had happened, and when I looked, I was surprised to find that it had taken place! As I have mentioned before, Rockingham County had been considering the purchase of approximately 27 Acres between Barrington and Lakewood for stormwater management purposes. This was the lay of the land back in July 2020...
I'll work on getting an update on any potential plans for a layout for use of the land. But in the meantime, I'll point out that the sale of the land has been completed. The "Lake Shenandoah Stormwater Control Authority" purchased 28.878 acres as shown above back in August 2020 for $1,850,000. I'll save you the math and let you know that it sold for approximately $64K per acre. | |
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Did City Home Prices Really Drop For The First Time Since Spring 2019? |
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![]() Today's edition of the Daily News Record leads with a story about home prices dropping in the City of Harrisonburg. The headline and much of the article might cause you to misunderstand the bigger picture of what is going on with City home prices. After all, most people would read that and say "oh, City home prices have fallen" when I think most people would come to a different conclusion when examining the actual data and/or if trying to buy a home in the City right now. :-) Let's dig in... The article states that the "median sales price dropped from $214,400 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $205,200 in the fourth quarter of 2020, a difference of 4%" which is from data provided by the Harrisonburg Rockingham Association of Realtors. Here's the problem... The City is sufficiently small such that there aren't many home sales per quarter (only 116 in 2020-Q4) and thus the data can lead you to the wrong conclusions if you are looking at too small of a data set. When looking at just one quarter of data...
Oh my, home prices are falling, right? But let's look to see what happens when you expand the data set to include a longer time period to avoid improper conclusions drawn from smaller data sets...
Are home prices falling? It seems they have actually risen 11% over the past year. The graph above attempts to offer a slightly clearer picture of home prices. It shows the median sales price over a 12 month period for each of the past (10) quarters. You'll note that the median sales price has been steadily increasing over the past several years. Did it tick downward slightly in 2020 Q4? Yes. By $950. Could it decline further as we get through 2021 Q1 and 2021 Q2? Yes, certainly. Anything is possible. Is it accurate to say that City home prices dropped in 2020 Q4? I guess? Technically? But that seems to be focusing in pretty narrowly and missing the larger picture. But you tell me -- what does the data say to you? | |
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Just Off The Mark. The Value Of Looking At Homes A Bit Beyond Your Typical Search Parameters |
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![]() If you're looking for a four bedroom home, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes with three bedrooms. If you plan to buy a home under $300K, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes priced between $300K and $325K. If you prefer homes built in the past 20 years, it might be worthwhile to view some homes that are 21 - 30 years old. If you know you need 2400 SF, it might be worthwhile to walk through some homes that are 2200 - 2399 SF. If you only want to live 10 minutes from where you work, it might be worthwhile to look at a few homes that are 15 minutes from your job. Sometimes buyers draw firm lines around what will and won't work for them. This is fine, but there is definitely value in walking through some homes that are close to but not within those parameters. Here's why...
So -- loosen up your parameters a bit and look at some houses that are close to what you're looking for but not quite right on the money. | |
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When Should I Start Looking For A Home To Buy If My Lease Ends This Summer? |
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![]() If you have a lease ending this summer and you are thinking about buying a home instead of renewing that lease, you might think you have PLENTY of time before you need to start looking for a home to purchase. You might actually want to start looking for that new home sooner than you think. Let's imagine that your lease ends June 30th. Here's one potential timeline...
A few details worth mentioning...
Finally, one thing that is not noted above is how this might all play out related to your monthly housing payments...
As you can see, above, in this scenario (closing on home purchase on May 31, lease ends June 30) you would not have any months where you would need to both make a rent payment and a mortgage payment. So -- if your lease ends this summer, and you are looking to buy, you might want to get started on the buying side of things sooner rather than later! | |
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Office Building, 77 Apartments and 93,600 SF of Storage Units Proposed Amidst Residential Developments, Church, Rescue Squad and Hospital in Rockingham County |
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![]() View a larger version of the map here. In what would seem to be a bit of a controversial proposed rezoning, Baum Investments LLC is proposing the rezoning of a 5.69 acre parcel at the corner of Port Republic Road and Boyers Road. The property is currently undeveloped, but Baum Investments would like to develop it to include...
As noted in the headline above, and on the map above, these proposed uses would be amidst residential developments, a church, the rescue squad and the hospital campus. You'll find the rezoning packet here. The County approved an Urban Development Area Plan (UDAP) for this area in late 2019 though it is not clear whether this rezoning request align with the County's vision for the area. The above referenced UDAP shows as example of mixed use and townhomes as a good potential fit for this property. Sometimes "mixed use" means a mix of commercial space and residential space -- but the UDAP document describes "mixed use" as developments that include "public amenities such as event and recreation space and fine dining." So, you tell me -- do the proposed uses (office building, apartments, storage units) fall within the scope of how the County thinks a parcel in this general location should be developed (townhomes, event space, recreation space, fine dining)? Am I reading the County's vision document too narrowly? Should we understand their vision document to mean that any sort of commercial use is fine within areas where they show potential mixed use? The Rockingham County Planning Commission meets on February 2nd to discuss this proposed rezoning. If you have comments about this proposed rezoning, you can contact... Updated 1/27/2021 per input from Bradford Dyjak, Director of Planning, Rockingham County - The UDA plan does offer examples of potential appropriate mixture of uses, and a broader definition of "mixed use" is also contained within the UDA Plan glossary, "Mixed of Uses - combines residential, commercial, civic, recreational and open space uses in a diversified but seamless arrangement; also combines first floor retail with second floor apartments and/or offices." Updated 1/29/2021 - Case #REZ20-333 has been postponed by request of the applicant and will not be heard February 2nd. It will be rescheduled and re-advertised at a later date. Full disclosure -- I live in one of the neighboring residential developments, about a half a mile from this proposed rezoning. | |
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There Are Usually Two Phases Of Looking For A Home |
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![]() OK - right now - it might really just feel like one phase, but humor me... There are typically (in most markets) two phases of looking for a home to purchase once you have decided that you are going to buy a new home. First -- we'll take a look at all of the homes currently on the market that might fit your ends. Second -- we'll wait for new listings to hit the market that might fit your needs. These days -- there are extremely low inventory levels in many price ranges and market segments, so the first part of the process (looking at current listings) is often a very brief exercise. Most of the homes of interest that have been listed in the past 90 days have already been snatched up with another buyer. As such, don't be surprised if it doesn't take long to go see the houses currently on the market that are a good potential match for you. We're then stuck in that second phase -- waiting. How exciting!? There will (likely) be new listings hitting the market in coming weeks or months that will be a potential match for what you're seeking in a new home, but we'll have to wait around for a homeowner to be ready to list their home for sale. When a local housing market experiences low levels of housing inventory, more of our "looking for a home" time is typically spent waiting rather than looking. What an exciting opportunity to practice patience! ;-) | |
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January Housing Inventory Levels Sink To New Lows |
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![]() We like somethings to be low - like mortgage interest rates. But inventory levels - it really isn't ideal for them to be this low - except for sellers, I suppose. For each of the past five years, home buyers in our local market have found themselves worse off as far as having options for houses to buy in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Today, buyers are choosing from 117 homes for sale in the entire City and County. Ouch! Just a year ago, that was 195 homes, two years ago 269 homes, oh -- and can you imagine having 500+ homes to choose from such as back in 2016!? Here's hoping for a flurry of homes coming on the market in February and March to help meet the apparently never ending surge of buyer demand! | |
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Will Buyer Activity Continue Full Strength In January? |
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![]() As shown above, the past three months (October, November and December) were absolutely bonkers as far as contract activity in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We saw far more contracts being signed than is typical for those months of the year. If we average the number of contracts seen in the fourth quarter of 2018 and 2019 we might have thought we would have seen 310 contracts signed in the fourth quarter of 2020. Instead, there were 435 contracts signed! So, how will things turn out in January? So far -- it seems buyer activity will continue to be strong in January 2021. There were 75 contracts signed between January 1 and January 20 which points to a projected total of 116 contracts potentially being signed during the full month of January, which would -- again -- surpass normal market activity for the month of January. Stay tuned to see how long this strong wave of buyer activity will continue... | |
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Maybe Some Townhouse Developments Have Fewer Homeowners (Living In Those Townhouses) Than I Thought |
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![]() Before I look at any given set of real estate data, I usually have some sort of an idea in my head of what the data is likely going to indicate. I'm not always exactly right in my guess as to what I'll find when digging into the data - but I'm usually not overly surprised. A fellow agent asked me a few weeks ago about how many townhouses in Taylor Spring I thought were owner occupied vs. tenant occupied. I think I guessed that 80% or more were owner occupied. That was just my general feel for the neighborhood. It seems to mostly be homeowners. I was wrong. Pretty significantly wrong. I pulled the property records for all townhouses in Taylor Spring and then determined which were owner occupied based on whether the tax bills are sent to the actual property (likely owner occupied) or sent to a different address (likely not owner occupied) and this is what I found... Total Townhouses = 185 Owner Occupied = 94 Percent Owner Occupied = 51% So, it seems that about half of the townhouses in Taylor Spring are rentals. I was surprised, though mainly just because of my general assumption about what I was going to find. Are you surprised? | |
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Juniper Hill Commons, A Multi-Generational Cohousing Community Is Under Development On Keezletown Road |
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![]() A new cohousing community is under development on Keezletown Road to feature (27) homes with 800 to 2400 SF. All homes are intended to include solar panels, spacious front porches and six inch thick walls. There are a variety of house plans intended to be built at Juniper Hill Commons such as this triplex... ![]() What, you might ask, is a Cohousing Community? Here's the vision for this neighborhood...
Learn (A LOT) more about this planned neighborhood by visiting their website where you can find a plat, house plans, neighbor bios and much more! | |
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Most Homes Sold Quickly In 2020! |
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![]() The graph above is an analysis of all of the homes that sold during 2020 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. You'll note that 69% of those homes sold (went under contract) within 30 days of being listed for sale! I expect that we will continue to see this dynamic in 2021. There are still plenty of buyers looking to buy homes, and very low inventory levels. As such, many homes are being scooped up by buyers within days (or weeks) of first hitting the market for sale. Home buyers in 2021 will need to be ready to act QUICKLY to secure a contract to purchase a home! | |
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Not Much Negotiability In Home Prices In 2020 |
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![]() Looking back at a full year of data now for 2020, it is impressive to note that the median "list price to sales price ratio" was 100% for the year. This means that at least half of sellers sold at or above their list price! Home buyers likely aren't surprised by this revelation as they have experienced it first hand if they bought - or tried to buy - in 2020. New listings that are prepared well, priced well and marketed well are receiving multiple offers within days of hitting the market. Oftentimes, buyers are not discussing whether to make a full price offer - they are discussing how far above list price to go with their offer. Home sellers must still remember that this is not a blank check. Just because buyers are so eager to buy that they are often going above list price does not mean that you can list your home for any price you'd like. If your home is potentially worth $300K in the market right now, you ought not list it for $350K and then be surprised when you don't have a rush or showings and don't have any offers. You still need to price your home based on recent sales, though you might be able to round up a bit more than you had in the past when pricing your home. I expect this dynamic (most homes selling for the list price or higher) to continue as we move through 2021. | |
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At Year End, Home Sales Up 13%, Prices Up 10% in 2020 in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() Happy New Year, friends! 2020 was a year like no other - in our local housing market - and in many (many!) other ways. I hope you and your family are doing well, staying healthy, and are full of hope looking forward to the year ahead! Below, I'll walk you through some of the overall trends we are seeing in our local housing market when reflecting back on a full year of 2020 home sales data. Before we get started, though, check out the featured home above here and feel free to download the full PDF of my market report here. Now, to the data... ![]() What a wild finish to the year! A few things to note when looking at this overall data...
Looking a bit further, let's break down the detached homes as compared to attached homes. Attached homes are duplexes, townhomes and condominiums. ![]() As you can see above...
It's hard to think of the best metaphor for the monthly pace of home sales in 2020. Perhaps someone running a race that tripped and fell and slowed down considerably a third of the way into the race, but who slowly picked up speed over the next third of the race and who absolutely SPRINTED through the final third of the race? ![]() Take a look at September through December of 2020 above, marked with a red line. This is not normal / typical / expected. We expect to see an average of about 100 home sales per month for the last four months of the year. In 2020, it was an average of 149 home sales per month! This, clearly, makes me hesitant to guess about what we'll see in January and February. These winter months are typically the slowest months of the year for home sales -- but not in 2020. I expect we'll continue to see stronger than usual home sales for at least the first few months of 2021. And, looking at those sales on an annual basis... ![]() If you track along any particular color band in the graph above you can see where we were at that point of the year for each of the past five years. In August (yellow) of 2020 we were tracking right around where we would expect to be based on 2019 sales. But then those last four months of the year happened, catapulting us waaaaay ahead of where we have been for any recent year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Here's an even crazier look at what has been happening for the past four months... ![]() The more interesting (confusing!?) line above is the orange one. That is showing the number of home sales we're seeing per year in our area. That trajectory took a nose dive in early 2020 thanks to COVID but has been absolutely skyrocketing over the past four months. Why, why, why? Here are some guesses...
OK, I went on a bit more than I expected there, let's look one more time at the annual trends before we move on... ![]() Two main things to note above...
Now, looking briefly at what is to come... ![]() After I meticulously drew all of those purple arrows to point something out (see below) I realized it might seem like I was saying those numbers were decreasing. They're not. I didn't re-draw the arrows. You'll forgive me? OK - now to the point -- if you look at the seven purple arrows on the left you'll see that I'm pointing out the contracts signed between June and December of 2019 -- a total of 724 contracts. The seven purple arrows on the right are pointing out the contracts signed between June and December of 2020 -- a total of 960 contracts. So -- here's that evidence of a big increase in contract activity in the second half of the year. We saw that bear itself out in lots of closed sales between September and December, and I think that is going to keep on rolling into January and February. I expect we will see stronger than normal months of home sales for the first few months of 2021 if not longer. As I've alluded to a few times thus far, there is a lot of competition amongst buyers as each new listing hits the market. This abundance of buyers in the market, and scarcity of sellers, has caused continued downward shifts in inventory levels... ![]() As you can see above, end-of-year inventory levels fell 33% over the past year. The important detail to note here is that these are just "moment in time" inventory levels. How many homes are on the market, actively listed for sale, on a particular day. Clearly, the 33% decline in inventory levels did not result in a decline in home sales in 2020. Perhaps it's actually the other way around -- the 13% increase in home sales in 2020 caused inventory levels to drop another 33% OK, one last graph to illustrate something I've referenced above... ![]() I told you mortgage interest rates had fallen - but look at how far they have fallen! Less than two years ago, the average 30 year mortgage interest rate was above 4%. Only a year ago it was 3.74%. Now, it's 2.67%. That marks a 29% decline in interest rates over the past year. This makes mortgage money cheap -- and monthly payments low -- and is part of what allowed median sales prices to rise 10% over the past year. Buyers were willing to pay higher prices for homes at least partly because their monthly costs keep declining. OK, I'll wrap it up there for now. Again, 2020 was a wild year and not at all what I expected it to be in March and April when things started slowing down. I did make a few predictions for 2021, but given how many surprises 2020 threw at us, it's certainly hard to imagine where exactly things might go in 2021. If you're thinking about buying a home in 2021, let's chat sooner rather than later if I can be of help to you in that process. You'll want to get pre-approved for a mortgage right away and then we'll want to start stalking the new listings as they hit the market. If you're thinking about selling your home in 2021, it is likely going to be a lot of fun to do so -- even if still a bit stressful. You will still need to prepare your house well, price it according to pertinent market data, and we'll need to market it thoroughly, but many sellers in most price ranges and locations are finding it to be a very favorable time to sell. If/when you're ready to connect to talk about buying or selling, feel free to email me (scott@hhtdy.com) or call/text me at 540-578-0102. Happy New Year! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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