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New Listings Will, In Theory, Start to Pop Soon |
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![]() The market is moving QUICKLY -- homes are often going under contract in a matter of days instead of weeks -- so it is essential that you know about new listings immediately when they hit the market. Most of my clients use NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com to keep track of new properties coming on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. You can quickly and easily scroll through the most recent residential listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, view the pertinent details, all of the photographs of the home, an area map, and then quickly and easily share that new listing with a friend, your spouse, your Realtor, etc. You can also sign up to receive an email alert every time there is a new listing.... ![]() Check it out, at NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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How Long To Prep Your Home Before Listing It For Sale |
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![]() Sometimes sellers want to wait until their home is absolutely 100% prepared to go on the market for sale -- or even 102% ready! It's hard to disagree with that in principle -- yes -- let's make sure you get your house 100% ready to go on the market before we put it on the market. But... If it takes (for example) six weeks to get your house 95% ready to go and another eight weeks to get it to 100% ready -- is it worth waiting those two extra months to list your home? Probably not -- unless those two months you are waiting are in the middle of winter when buyer activity would be low and when your home might not show its best based on dead grass, leafless trees, gray skies, etc. A few other points to consider in this regard...
Again, the main point of my ramblings today are...
Finally, a few examples of a 95% complete house...
OK, maybe those got to be somewhat extreme. :-) You get the point. Let's meet sooner rather than later and your house doesn't have to be 100% perfect to be listed for sale and to sell in a timeframe and for a price that is pleasing to you. | |
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Strategic Use Of An AirBNB When Selling Your Home In A Fast Moving Market |
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![]() OK, first off, the chart above is completely fictional. It is not based on actual showing data, it is based on my general experience of how showings are going these days of popular, well priced homes. I created the (completely fictional) graph to illustrate a concept. Forgive me. ;-) The point of said fictional graph is to call attention to the fact that you are bound to have the most showings per day for your house on the first few days that it is listed for sale. Those are all of the "backlogged buyers" who have been trying to buy for weeks or months and are super anxious to come and see your home immediately and consider making an offer. After those first few days, if your house is not already under contract after having received multiple offers, the number of showings per day is likely to decline significantly to be a slow and steady stream of buyers over time. So, what is a seller to do given this extreme number of showings that are likely to be requested during those first few days... OPTION 1 - Drive all around town, all day, while your house is being shown, wondering which bathrooms in public places might be open during a pandemic... OPTION 2 - Find somewhere else to live for a few days. This might be in an AirBNB, or a friend's house, or a family member's house, etc. The point is, if you can displace yourself for a few days it will allow the maximum number of showings to happen without those scheduled showings being an inconvenience to you. As with all market metrics, your experience may differ based on your price range, location, property type, etc. Before we list your home, let's talk through what we might expect for showings during those first few days and figure out a game plan to keep you sane amongst a possible barrage of requested showings. | |
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First Three Steps Towards Getting Your House On The Market This Spring |
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![]() It feels like spring time in the Valley this week! I hope you are enjoying the warmer temperatures and perhaps tackling a few outside projects around the house. If you are planning to get your house on the market this spring, here are a few "first steps" to be thinking about... [1] Outside Prep First impressions are important, whether a prospective buyer is driving by to check out your house prior to a showing or driving up your driveway for a showing. Perhaps some trimming and pruning and edging is in order. Fresh mulch always helps. Does your front door (on the trim around it) need fresh paint? How can we make the front of your house show best to entice buyers to walk through the front door? [2] Inside Prep Simplifying, decluttering, cleaning, what else? Sometimes it's removing furniture, sometimes moving it around, and sometimes just removing all the odds and ends that collect on surfaces around your house. We want buyers to focus on the house, not your belongings - so we'll want to simplify to the point that the interior of your home shows its best. Start with the first spaces that a buyer will see upon entering your home, and then the general living areas, and save the closets, garage and unfinished storage spaces until last. [3] Meeting & Talking & Planning Let's meet sooner rather than later to talk about plans for getting your house on the market this spring. I can provide some feedback and insight as it relates to your outside prep and inside prep -- and we can start to talk about timing and pricing. When will you be ready for your house to hit the market, and how should we price your home given recent sales trends. You might think you need to have all of the prep work done before we meet. You don't. I can look past the projects in process so if you're thinking about getting your house on the market in the next few months, it's not too early to start talking about those plans now. I hope you are enjoying these early glimpses of spring time weather as much as I am! | |
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Go Check Your Basement Walls For Cracks |
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![]() Sometimes during a home inspection, I wish I had a time machine. We'll see a crack in a basement wall -- but we don't know how long it has been that way. The general logic often then goes like this...
Yes, I know, those are sweeping generalizations, but... Because we don't have a time machine, most buyers end up needing to assume that every crack in a basement wall falls into the first category -- recent, and continuing to shift or change, and needing immediate and expensive remediation. But what if today, you installed a crack monitor for your basement wall -- and monitored it quarterly for the next five years -- and then when you were selling your house you could provide documentation that the crack had not changed at all (hopefully) in five years of monitoring... That, my friends, could change the game for a home seller with a crack in their basement wall. So -- check your basement walls for cracks -- and if you have any, consider installing a crack monitor! The photo above is the CRACKMON 4020A Concrete Crack Monitor Kit, which includes three crack monitors and the epoxy adhesive to install them. You can purchase the set for $100 on Amazon and that $100 could be some of the best money you spend on preparing for the future sale of your home if a prospective buyer finds themselves fretting over your cracked basement wall in the future. | |
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Comparing Home Pricing Strategies |
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![]() Above I have included an overly complicated illustration of an overly simplified comparison of two pricing strategies. A few key points for understanding the graphic above...
So... the two strategies... STRATEGY #1 In this scenario, the seller decides to price their home just barely above market value. If most would agree that a house is worth $315K, then maybe that is pricing it at $319K. Pricing a home so close to (but just above) what you believe to be its market value is likely to (in this market, now) generate a LOT of showings. A fairly priced house in a market with extraordinarily low inventory levels results in a lot of early showing activity. Houses listed for sale with prices very close to their market value also typically see quite a few offers, which leads to the most important differentiation between these two pricing strategies... With so many offers, you are bound to have a buyer or buyers who are willing to go above the asking price, maybe with an escalation clause, maybe with an escalation clause that goes up to a silly/high number, maybe without a home inspection contingency, maybe without an appraisal contingency, maybe cash, etc. You see where I'm going here. The more offers you have, the more likely you are to have an offer (amongst the many) with terms that will be very favorable to you. STRATEGY #2 In this scenario, the seller decides to price the house a good bit above the assumed market value, you know, because the market is strong! If most would agree that a house is worth $315K, then maybe that is pricing it at $329 or $335K. Even if most buyers (and buyer agents) suspect the price is a bit too high, you are likely still to have a good number of showings, though definitely not as many as if you had priced the home closer to its market value. Of the smaller group of buyers who looked at the home, you are likely to have a smaller number who make an offer. You'll have fewer offers because the price is not quite as realistic, and because some buyers will assume you won't come down much on your price since you just listed your home, which leads to that key difference again... Having priced your home a good bit above its market value, you are less likely to have full price offers, less likely to have escalation clauses, less likely to have buyers waive an inspection contingency or appraisal, etc. You will likely still have very good terms as far as price, but not great terms. Again -- this is an oversimplification of how to best price your home -- and every house and segment of the market is different -- but at some point you will need to decide what type of a strategy you will take in pricing your home, as to what results you are hoping to see. | |
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Will Buying A Home This Year Or Next Year Result In The Lowest Mortgage Payment? |
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![]() If you are hoping to minimize the amount of your monthly mortgage payment, should you buy a house this year? Or next year? Well, as shown above, it depends on whether you think home prices will be higher or lower (or the same) next year -- and whether you think mortgage interest rates will be higher or lower (or the same) next year. Most folks think mortgage interest rates will be higher next year than they are now. If so, it's most likely that you'd be better off buying this year rather than next to have a lower monthly payment. Even if rates continue to be this low, if prices continue to rise (as they seem likely to do) then again, you'll be better off buying this year than next. Since it seems relatively unlikely (highly unlikely?) that interest rates will go down over the next year, the only way you'd have a lower mortgage payment next year than you would now is if mortgage interest rates do NOT rise AND homes prices decline. So -- as to whether you should buy this year or next -- you tell me, based on your best guesses as to what interest rates and home prices will do over the next year. My best guess is that you'll pay more in a monthly payment for a house if you buy next year than you would if you buy this year. Now, all that said, we'll have to somehow secure you a home amidst a competitive market with lots of buyers -- but it's possible! | |
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Low Inventory Levels AND Lots Of Listings |
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![]() It's an interesting conundrum. Inventory levels are really (really!) low right now, but there are plenty of new listings that will come on the market this month and next month and nearly every month this year. So, how and why does this happen? Well, if there aren't many listings... ...and then a bunch of houses are listed for sale... ...but there are plenty of buyers in the market so that those new listings all go under contract quickly... ...we'll be left with... not many listings. The key factor keeping inventory levels so low right now are an abundant number of buyers in the market -- or trying to get into the market -- to buy a home. So long as that supply of buyers stayed steady and strong, we are likely to continue to see low inventory levels. So, if you are a buyer and are feeling glum about the very few choices you have today... ...be encouraged -- plenty of houses will be listed for sale in the next month or so... ...but maybe (sorry!) also be discouraged -- you will likely be competing with quite a few other buyers for each new listing. | |
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Are Home Prices Only Going Up Because Mortgage Interest Rates Are Going Down? |
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![]() Disclaimer: I am not an economist. I don't play an economist on TV. Or on this blog. Feedback from actual economists, or accountants, or financial analysts, or wise guys is welcome: scott@hhtdy.com So, are home prices going up because mortgage interest rates are going down? Maybe yes AND no? Yes...
No...
So What...
Why...
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Is It Dangerous To Pay Too Much For A House? |
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![]() I am going to start with three very important notes:
OK, now, having said that... These days, some buyers are finding themselves in situations where they have to pay a higher price than they'd like to actually secure a contract on a house. For example... When a house is listed for sale for $275K, and everyone thinks it is worth $275K, and there are eight offers on the house within 48 hours, likely at least one of the buyers is going to decide they are willing to pay $280K or $285K for the house, even if it is only worth $275K. So, is this bad? Is this dangerous? Is this foolish? As usual, it depends. There are plenty of ways in which it is not bad or dangerous or foolish for that buyer to pay $285K for a $275K house in order to actually be able to buy a house. Assuming that home values continue to increase, it is only a matter of time (see the graph above) before the home's value matches and then exceeds the price that they paid. Assuming that they don't need to sell the home in the first year or two after they bought it, there is, thus, little danger to them for having overpaid. This (values continue to go up + they don't need to sell soon) seems to be the more likely of the scenarios. There is, of course, a less likely, but more dangerous scenario. If home values stop going up (because mortgage interest rates increase dramatically or because a large local employer shuts down, etc.) or if the buyer (and then homeowner) needs to sell much sooner than they thought -- then, yes, they would regret having paid more than the house was worth to get the house. This (values stop going up + they do need to sell soon) seems to be the less likely of the scenarios. So, should every buyer be willing to pay much more than a house is worth in order to get the house? No, probably not. Should some buyers decide that for some particular houses it is worth paying a bit more than the home's current value in order to actually be able to buy that house? Yes, this seems to be reasonable and have a relatively low likelihood of being dangerous given current market conditions, which, of course, could certainly start to change at any time. | |
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337 Homes To Be Built On Pleasant Valley Road |
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A new neighborhood is coming to Pleasant Valley Road, across the street from The Springs at Osceola. Way back in 2009, this land was rezoned as a part of the 282.86 acres of land that was to be developed as The Springs at Osceola. Now, however, the developer plans to develop the 71.502 acres on the west side of Pleasant Valley Road as a separate neighborhood, Wingate Meadows subdivision. Wingate Meadows would consist of 337 homes, including...
County staff recommended approving this rezoning on January 28, 2021. The Planning Commission recommended approving this rezoning on February 2, 2021. The Board of Supervisors approved the subdivision on February 24, 2021. You can download the rezoning packet here, and this is the proposed layout... view a larger version here | |
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Site Plan and Renderings For Boyers Crossing, Proposed Mixed Use Development |
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A developer is proposing that Rockingham County rezone a 5.69 acre parcel at the corner of Port Republic Road and Boyers Road for...
The developer has now published renderings of the proposed development which can be found on their website. Some additional details are now available from the proposed development's website...
This is a proposed mixed use development, and you can read more about the mixed use developments that do and do not already exist locally here. Feedback about this potential rezoning can be sent to... | |
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Mixed Use Developments in Rockingham County, Looking Around and Looking Forward |
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![]() Given all of the developments popping up along Boyers Road it is probably a good time to pause and remember that this (Boyers Road) is one of the main areas where Rockingham County anticipates seeing further development in the years (and decades) to come per the Stone Spring Urban Development Plan. The Stone Spring UDA provides a blueprint for the potential development based on a traditional town pattern in four geographic areas that they have called Stone Port, Stone Ridge, Boyers Crossing and Crossroads. Here's the big picture, per Rockingham County... "The UDA Plan presents a vision for the development of new, walkable mixed-use neighborhoods, within the four neighborhood focus areas while preserving existing neighborhoods." "Plans and development scenarios are conceptual and would be phased over the ensuing 20 years, contemplating future generations of development and adaptive reuses of certain parcels over that period. Recommended conceptual alignments, structures and functional uses do not account for parcel boundaries or topographic constraints." One main thing to note here is that the County has a vision of these four areas being developed as mixed use developments. We can think about this most simply as residential and non-residential uses. Non-residential uses might be office space or retail, etc. This type of development (mixed use) will look and feel different than most of the areas that folks are familiar with in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County because there are not many mixed use developments currently in existence in our area. A few examples and non-examples... Crossroads Farm could sort of be seen as almost being a mixed use development in that a bank was built at the corner of the neighborhood where Cross Keys Road and Spotswood Trail intersect. That's probably a bit of a stretch though, as these two areas (residential neighborhood, bank) do not connect for vehicular or pedestrian traffic. Urban Exchange is a mixed use development in downtown Harrisonburg (yes, in the City, not the County) because it has apartments over top of retail and office space, though it is all in one connected building, as opposed to a mixed use development in multiple buildings spread out over a tract of land. Preston Lake was always intended to be a mixed use development with commercial space on the edge of the original development plan, and as a part of the current development plan, but it's only a residential development thus far with detached homes, duplexes, townhomes and now an adjacent apartment complex under construction. Again, all residential development - though there is still a possibility it will have some non-residential development as a part of it at some point in the future. Stone Port, located catty-corner to Sentara RMH Medical Center would seem to be one of our area's first mixed-use development, because it has residential uses (apartments) and non-residential uses (retail, office, etc.) Stoney Ridge is a proposed/planned mixed use development on the south end of Harrisonburg and partially in the County. It would almost entirely be residential development (apartments, townhouses, duplexes, detached homes) but does have some intended commercial lots on the front of the property. Boyers Crossing is a proposed mixed use development on the corner of Boyers Road and Port Republic Road including apartments, commercial space and storage units. More on this in the coming days. Am I missing any current or proposed mixed use developments? If so, email me. I suspect we will continue to see further proposals for mixed use developments in the four areas in the County referenced above. Perhaps as further mixed use developments take shape we will become more accustomed to them and more comfortable with them in this marketplace. | |
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Getting Ready To Sell? Focus On Neighborhood Sales Prices First! |
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![]() If you will be selling your home this spring, you ought to start familiarizing yourself with which other homes are selling in your neighborhood, and at what prices. This will give you the most reasonable and accurate pricing expectations when we are then determining a target sales price for your home and setting a list price for your home. It is somewhat interesting to consider what other similar homes have sold for in very different neighborhoods but that will not likely be the primary factor in determining the value of your home. Start with sales in your neighborhood! If you live in a neighborhood the fastest way to get to this information is likely via HarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com where you can quickly dive into the home sales for your particular neighborhood, view interior photos of recently sold homes, look at longer term sales trends from the past five years, view current homes listed for sale and more. | |
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Who Is Winning In The Local Real Estate Market? |
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![]() Sellers are winning - rather universally. Every market metric works in their favor, making it a rather enjoyable time to sell.
Buyers are losing - in most categories. Buyers are happy about low rates and low unemployment, but otherwise, all market metrics are working against them. Homeowners are winning - they are indifferent to most market fluctuations - but are glad that home values are increasing. | |
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Why Did So Many Homes Sell In Our Area In 2020? |
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![]() As shown above, the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive in April 2020 related to COVID, but has taken off since August 2020 and quickly accelerated the market to a pace of almost 1,500 home sales per year. Why is this happening? Here are some of my best guesses... Pre-COVID, most of us likely spent the minority of our waking hours in our homes. We would be at work much of the time. During COVID, many folks find themselves spending 90% or more of their waking hours in their homes. For many people, this made them quickly realize that their home was no longer working for their needs or those of their family. If you're working from home and your kids are learning from home, you suddenly have higher expectations for the space and spaces that your home offers. I suspect this "being at home much more than normal" dynamic caused more people to decide to sell their home and buy a new home during 2020. Mortgage interest rates have been dropping throughout most of 2020, making it an excellent time to buy a home from a monthly mortgage payment perspective. These lower rates likely made it pretty easy for the "my home doesn't work during COVID" buyers to consider upgrading to a new home. There is an extraordinary amount of pent up buyer demand in our area. Perhaps more sellers than usual listed their homes in the second half of the year, most of which were scarfed right up by eager buyers, thus leading to higher than normal home sales. This also seems to have lead to higher sales prices! What do they say? The whole is greater than the sum of its parts? It seems that... more buyers wanting to upgrade to a new home + super low interest rates + pent up buyer demand + quickly rising home prices = a red hot real estate market in 2020! As one other aside, it is also possible that we may have seen more second home purchases in 2020 than in other comparable years. More and more people found they could work from home, or from out of town, and this likely drove at least some number of new buyers of second homes into our market. | |
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As A Home Buyer, You Have Never Had Fewer Options |
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![]() It's a tough time to be a home buyer. In most locations and price ranges there are VERY FEW homes for sale! As shown above, the number of homes for sale at any given time has drifted lower and lower and lower over the past 13 years to the very lowest point EVER this month with only 107 homes for sale in all of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This shortage of housing inventory has quite a few impacts...
Moving forward into the spring season, which will eventually happen after another 5 to 10 snow storms...
So, welcome to yet another, stronger, seller's market as we look forward to spring 2021! | |
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How Quickly Are Homes Going Under Contract? |
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![]() Q: How Quickly Are Homes Going Under Contract? A: Quickly. As you can see above, more homes went under contract in the first 10 days of being listed for sale (808 houses, 54%) than went under contract anytime thereafter. This doesn't necessarily mean that you can or should price your home at a higher and higher price because there is so much buyer interest and so many homes go under contract so quickly. Instead, we should be pricing your home to get plenty of buyer interest right away, and to hopefully have several offers from which to choose to pick the terms that will work best for your selling situation. | |
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Home Sales Up, Prices Up, Inventory Down in January 2021 |
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![]() Happy Wintry Monday Morning, friends! It looks like it might be a touch above freezing temperatures today, so perhaps some of the lingering snow and ice and will start to melt today. This has been one of the coldest and snowiest and iciest months of January / February that I can remember anytime recently in the Harrisonburg area! As a preview of where we're headed in this overview of the local real estate market:
So, no huge surprises. It seems the 2021 housing market is trying to keep the momentum going from 2020. Read on for a recap of what is happening in our local housing market or:
Now, onto the data and some pretty charts and graphs... ![]() A few observations from the overview data presented above...
Now, I was telling you that January was a bit unusual, even though it was a repeat of last January, right? Let's take a look... ![]() Indeed, the 100 home sales we saw in January 2021 was merely a repeat of January 2020 -- boring! ;-) -- but that is many more home sales than we typically see in January. We usually see 60 to 70 home sales in the month of January. Last year's super strong month of 100 home sales was followed by a super slow month of only 63 home sales in February. Stay tuned to find out whether home sales will again quickly slide downward in February, or will remain strong. Keep reading to see how many people signed contracts in January, which might be at least some indication of what we'll see as far as February sales. Looking for a big picture graph that summarizes what has been happening in our local housing market over the past year? It's this funny looking one... ![]() Starting with the bottom, orange, line -- this is showing the number of home sales per year for each of the past 12+ months. You'll note that the annual pace of home sales took a nose dive last year between April and August, which are usually the strongest months of the year for home sales. But then, home sales took off quickly in the fall and continued to accelerate into winter, leading to huge rebound in the pace of home sales in our area. This seems to mostly be able to be attributed to COVID. There was a lot of uncertainty in the market in March, April, May, etc. which slowed down home sales, but then as people realized that the housing market wasn't falling apart AND they realized that their homes weren't working as well for them when they were in them 95% of the time (thanks, COVID) AND they realized that super low interest rates made it a compelling time to upgrade their home, we saw home sales take off quickly! The top, green line, then is the median sales price. We have been seeing steadily increasing sales prices in our local area for the past few years and those prices kept marching upward quickly in 2020. The annualized median sales price at the end of January 2021 was $246,500 -- a significant increase above a year ago when it was $223,500. So, remember that I mentioned that January contracts might give us an idea of what to expect for February sales? Let's take a look... ![]() It seems January wasn't just a busy month of closings - it was also a busy month for buyers (and sellers) signing contracts to buy (and sell) homes. There were 95 contracts signed in January 2020, and 123 in January 2021! As such, it seems likely that February (and March) will be busy months for closed home sales. What's it like buying a home these days? It can be a bit challenging, and stressful, mostly because of the very (very, very) low inventory levels at any given point... ![]() A year ago, a buyer would have been choosing from 196 homes on the market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Today, there are only 107 homes on the market for sale!?! This huge (46%) decline in inventory levels means that a buyer doesn't have a whole lot of options at any given moment in time. Now, that's not to say that they don't have options at all -- they do. If we see 1400 home sales over the next 12 months it will be because around 1400 homes will be listed for sale. So, there will be plenty of options of what a buyer might buy -- but if recent market dynamics continue through 2021, most of those new listings will go under contract quickly (median of eight days on the market) which will keep the inventory levels quite low! Finally, those interest rates. Yes, they are still low... ![]() Some part of what fueled the wild real estate market in 2020 was super low mortgage interest rates. As shown above, the average 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has been below 3% for over six months now. This has kept monthly housing prices affordable for buyers amidst rising prices and has also allowed plenty of folks to refinance and see cost savings on a monthly basis. So there we have it. We're a month (ok, really a month and a half) into 2021 and thus far we're seeing a continuation of the strong local housing market that we saw in 2020. Generally speaking that means it will be pretty fun to be a seller, pretty challenging to be a buyer, and you'll get to experience the full range of emotions of you are selling AND buying! If you are making plans for selling or buying in spring 2021... Sellers - Even though the market is hot, you still need to prepare your home well, price it appropriately based on historical sales data and market it thoroughly and professionally. Buyers - Get prequalified for a mortgage, start stalking new listings, go see them on the first day they hit the market, and get ready to compete in a multiple offer situation. Seller / Buyers - If you need to (or want to) sell in order to buy, this will require a bit more strategery :-) than normal. It can be done, but we need a solid plan in place from the start. If I can be of help to you as you start to think about the possibility of making a move, selling your home, buying a new one, etc. -- just let me know. I'd be happy to meet with you in person, via Zoom, or to chat by phone to help you think and talk through the possibilities. You can reach me at scott@hhtdy.com or via phone/text at 540-578-0102. Enjoy the second half of February, and we'll check in again in early March! | |
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What Could Cause Our Imbalanced Housing Market To Balance Out? |
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![]() Several of my clients have recently commented on how our local real estate market seems out of balance - with so many more active buyers in the market than there are sellers willing to sell their homes. This dynamic often leads to many buyers making offers on well priced, well prepared, well marketed listings to hit the market in and around Harrisonburg. Sometimes it even leads to buyers offering above (or waaaay above) the list price for homes that they don't want to let slip away. So -- if the market is imbalanced, with sellers having the upper hand, what could help our local market come back into more of a balance? In some ways, it's hard to imagine how we work ourselves out of this imbalance, but here are a few real, imagined or fantastical thoughts...
In the end, there don't seem to be many certain paths forward that would allow for our local housing market to balance out in any significant way. As such, it seems relatively likely that our local housing market will remain strong and at an imbalance that heavily favors sellers. If you're seeing something I'm not - and have predictions for how our local market might balance itself out in the coming year - let me know! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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