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Twice As Many Home Buyers In County than City |
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![]() Each year, right around twice as many home buyers purchase homes in Rockingham County as compared to in the City of Harrisonburg. Clearly, the home buyers in the City are much more densely situated -- since the City is comprised of only 17.42 square miles -- while the County spans 849.09 square miles! As a random aside, Rockingham County is the third largest county in Virginia! So -- twice as many buyers in the County -- do sellers in the County have it easier than in the City? Not necessarily, as there are slightly MORE than twice as many homes for sale in the County as compared to the City. ![]() Where will you purchase your next home? In the City or the County? Why? Based on the lot size, privacy, school district, age, property type? | |
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Who Bought (Or Sold) What For What? |
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Looking for information about recent property transfers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Be sure to check out HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. Of note...
You can also subscribe to receive these updates by email. Just complete the form at the top of HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. | |
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Fall Is Not The Worst (Nor The Best) Season For Selling Your Home |
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![]() As is likely no surprise -- the busiest time for home sales (contracts) is SPRING -- followed by SUMMER. Fall, though, is the third best -- ok, also the second worst -- season for home sales. Of note, the data above reflects the timeframe during which properties went UNDER CONTRACT -- not when they closed. Plenty of the Summer contracts turned into Fall closings -- but the 279 figure is a reflection of how many buyers made buying decisions (signed contracts) between September and November of last year. So....if you want to sell your home (and close on it) in 2018, you should be thinking about getting it on the market sooner rather than later. Fall is definitely a better time to sell than Winter! | |
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Fewer and Fewer Homes For Sale in the City of Harrisonburg |
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![]() Home buyers looking to purchase in the City of Harrisonburg are finding fewer, and fewer, and fewer options at any given time. As shown above, inventory levels have been steadily dropping over the past six years -- from over 200 homes for sale to less than 100 homes for sale. Now, of note, this is not an indication that fewer homes are selling in the City -- but rather, that with as fast as homes are selling in the City, there are a smaller number available for sale at any given time. Buyers in the City, thus, are finding themselves in competitive offer situations more often, or are having to make decisions much more quickly when a house of interest is listed for sale. Learn more about our local housing market in my most recent monthly market report -- click on the image below to read it. | |
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Local Home Sales and Prices Surge in July |
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![]() First, learn more about this fantastic home (my dad's house), via a 3D Walk Through and more by visiting 3120PrestonLakeBoulevard.com. Now, back to our local real estate market -- I just published my most recent monthly market report, and as usual, you can read on for an overview, download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market... Now, let's take a look at some the trends we're currently seeing in our local housing market... ![]() As shown above, it has been an exciting month -- and year -- in our real estate market...
![]() OK -- this one is a random snippet. Above you will find a STARTLING statistic about the housing market in the City of Harrisonburg -- not including Rockingham County. When we look at all homes that sold in the past 12 months, in the City, half of them were under contract within 14 days of being listed for sale! Wow! ![]() Back to the big picture -- June 2018 home sales (all 174 of them) was the third highest month of home sales we have ever seen in our local market -- topped only by two summer months back in 2005 and 2006. I thought we'd see home sales drop off in July, as a result, but we had the best month of July sales in recent years -- with 127 home sales! Next month I'm not expecting we'll pop back up to August 2016 levels -- we're more likely to be in the 120 - 130 range for sales in August. ![]() August, oh August, that magical month. Last year at this time (end of July) we had seem more home sales (in 2017) than during that same timeframe the prior year (2016). And then, August. After August passed, 2017 never caught back up -- and ended up being a slower year than 2016 when all sales were accounted for. So -- what will happen this August? Will we keep on pace with 2017? Or even with 2016? Will we fall behind again? Stay tuned. ![]() When I see the YTD market-wide median increasing by 10%, I get a bit worried -- wondering if these are sustainable increases. Then, however, when I look at single family home sales alone, I am (at least a bit) reassured. You'll note that thus far the median sales price has increased only 4.2% between 2017 and 2018. This is much more in line with (or close to) long-term historical averages, and makes me think that the strong seller's market might not be leading to unsustainable price increases. Why, might you ask, is the single family detached market a better indicator of changes in market value? Mainly because it is not as easily affected by the number of investors engaging in our market. When the market gets hot we often see lots of investors buying properties -- often townhouses or other attached dwellings -- which can affect price trends. Most single family home purchases are made by folks who actually intend to live in the properties. ![]() Which would you rather do, buy or sell in the current market? The answer should be "sell" -- given the strong seller's market we're currently experiencing. A few things to note above -- first, there are still plenty more buyers in the market than there are sellers. Second, the number of sellers in the market continues to decline (and decline, and decline). Third, after a brief slow down in buyer activity, the pace seems to be increasing again. ![]() What comes next for our local market? Looking at contract activity (above) we can see the pop in May 2018 that lead to a wild month of June sales. Looking, then, at July -- we actually see a sizable increase from last July -- so maybe we'll have a stronger than expected month of sales in August after all!? ![]() If you're buying soon, you might have already passed the time in our local market cycle when you would have the most options from which to choose. That's not to say that plenty of new listings won't be coming on the market in the next 30 / 60 / 90 days -- they will -- but inventory levels have likely peaked and will start to decline as we (eventually) head into Fall and Winter. ![]() Lastly, how about those interest rates? We were actually close to 4.5% about 20 months ago -- but then dropped below 4% again. Now, over the past year, we have seen steady increases to where we are currently hovering around 4.5%. I have not seen this playing a major role in whether buyers are willing and able to buy -- but I do wonder if buyer activity (or interest or capability) would start to be affected if the interest rates rose to 5% or 5.5%. OK -- I'll stop there for now. Again, you can download the full report as a PDF, read the entire report with commentary online, or tune in to my monthly video overview of our local housing market One last note for anyone thinking of buying or selling soon -- SELLERS -- even though it is a seller's market in many price ranges right now, you must still focus on price, condition and marketing. For further reading on buying or selling in this area, check out.... | |
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Will It Be Harder to Sell Your Home Or Buy The Next One? |
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![]() If you are getting ready to sell your home AND buy your home, it can sometimes be difficult to determine where to start... Do you start by finding a house you want to purchase? Or do you start by listing your home for sale? I would suggest that you start with whichever you anticipate will be the most difficult part of the two step process. If it will be difficult to sell your home (because of price, location, layout, features, age, etc.) and it will be at least slight easier to buy the next one (plenty of viable options are listed for sale) then you are likely best off starting with listing your home for sale. Work to get the more difficult half of the transition underway by getting your current home under contract, and then work on the easier side of the transition. If it will be more difficult to buy the next house (because of the specificity of your housing goals, or because of low inventory levels, etc.) and it will be at least slightly easier to sell your current home (because the property type, location or price are in high demand) then you are likely best off focusing first on finding the home to buy -- and then listing your home for sale. There are plenty of nuances we can discuss further to formulate a plan for attempting to simultaneously sell and buy -- but as a general rule of thumb, you'll be best off to start with the harder half of the transaction. | |
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Prices of Single Family Home Sales Relatively Close to Harrisonburg |
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![]() Here is a break down of a year's single family home sales by price range:
A reader asked the following in response to my analysis earlier this week of all home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... "These stats don't seem to portray the same market in which I hunted unsuccessfully for months in the 200-300k range and, ultimately, felt pushed to purchase far beyond my comfort zone amid intense competition. How does the picture change if you include only detached single family properties? (i.e., are the numerous sales of sub-100k student townhome units skewing things?) I'm just trying to understand why my experience seems to have differed so greatly from the market reality." This is an excellent point. When we look at a large amount of data (all sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County) the large number of home sales in a particular price range can obscure some market realities that are hiding just below the surface. In the case of the buyer commenting above, the reason that she found very few options in the $200K - $300K price range relates to property type, location, size, age and features. Property Type - Indeed, the original analysis includes all property types, including townhouses and condos. Under $100K, this includes many student rentals. Between $100K and $200K, this includes many townhouses, some of which are rental properties. Between $200K and $300K this also includes quite a few townhouses. In the new analysis (above) I have only included single family detached homes. Location - Rockingham County is a large county. It's actually the third largest county in Virginia, behind Pittsylvania and Augusta. Many buyers looking to be close-ish to Harrisonburg aren't going to be looking at homes in Broadway, Elkton or Massanutten, based simply on location. In the new analysis (above) I have only included areas close-ish to Harrisonburg, as shown below. ![]() Size - It's easy to look at the data above and wonder how there could really be 182 homes that sold between $200K and $300K, in the geographic area bounded above, and to not (as a buyer) have thought any or many were good options. A whole lot of this has to do with the size of the home -- many buyers need more than X bedrooms, or more than X square feet. When we start putting some lower bounds on the space needed in a house, we quickly narrow down the number of viable homes. Age - The age of a home doesn't narrow things down quite as quickly as the size of a home, but it makes an impact. Many buyers are going to be significantly less excited about buying a 60 or 80 or 100 year old home as compared to buying a home that has been built in the past 10 to 20 years. Features - Then, when we start adding on needs (garage, basement) or wants (open floor plan, level lot), we narrow it all the way down to a relatively small number of homes that often match exactly what a buyer is hoping to buy. So -- when you look at the large number of homes selling in a given price range, don't think that all of those homes will be homes that will be viable options for you and your family. Once we add some of your additional (reasonable) criteria, the options will start constricting, often rather quickly. | |
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107 Apartments, Retail, Office Space Proposed on Lucy Drive |
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The owners of two parcels on Lucy Drive are applying for a rezoning to allow for a mixed use development to be built on the corner of Lucy Drive and Deyerle Avenue. Here is the intended site plan... Here are some basic details, per today's Daily News Record article (see below) and from the rezoning application:
Read today's Daily News Record article about this potential development here. Review the full rezoning application packet to be reviewed by the Planning Commission on Wednesday here. The public hearing for this rezoning will take place on Wednesday, August 8th at 7:00 PM in City Council chambers. | |
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Fewer Than 1 In 4 Home Buyers Spend Over $300K |
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![]() So much that can be unpacked here...
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Housing Inventory Levels May Have Peaked For The Year |
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![]() The number of options that you have today, as a buyer, may be the most options you'll have at any given point between now and the end of the year. As shown above, inventory levels (the number of active listings in the MLS at the end-ish of each month) climbed through the first six months of the year, but seemed to peak in May/June and now would appear to be starting to decline again. Now, certainly, there will be new listings over the next five months of this year -- so there will be some new inventory options -- but the total inventory available at any given point is not likely to increase again until next Spring. | |
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How Are Your City of Harrisonburg Tax Dollars Spent? |
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I found the infographic above to be helpful. The largest portions of our local tax dollars are being spent on Education, Public Safety and Public Works! If you found the above interesting, you'll likely enjoy reading the entire (8 page) "Budget in Brief" developed by the City of Harrisonburg this year, with a high level analysis of the Fiscal Year 2018-19 budget for the City of Harrisonburg. Click below to download the report. | |
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Risk, Reward and Buying College Student Housing Rental Properties |
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![]() If you are looking to purchase a rental property for your JMU student to live in while they are a student at JMU, there are two basic paths you could go down.... Option 1 -- A property in a traditional student housing neighborhood. These will allow the most students to live in the property and will maximize the rental income per dollar spent on the purchase. However, it will also expose you to a more turbulent segment of the market, as rental rates and sales prices of these properties can vary quite a bit over time as the supply of competing student housing ebbs and flows based on large complexes being built by student housing developers. You can find purchase options in this category here. Option 2 -- A townhouse in a community that has many owner occupants, some non-student renters and some student renters. Many of these will not allow as many un-related students to live in the property (per zoning regulation or restrictive covenant) and will not provide quite as much rental income per dollar spent on the purchase price. However, they will be in segment of the real estate market that is much more predictable and less volatile from a rental rate and/or sales price perspective. You can find purchase options in this category here and here. I work with parents of JMU students each year who go down each path outlined above, each for different reasons. Most of the time, though, it boils down to their tolerance for risk or their desire for reward. It can also be related to their intended time horizon for owning the property. If you are interested in buying a rental property for your son or daughter to live in while they are at student at JMU, let me know. Oh, and you might also want to read up here... | |
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Is It Time To Adjust The List Price Of Your Home? |
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![]() We should have another solid 60 days of strong buying activity (contracts being signed) before things start to slow down into the Fall, and then slow down even further in the Winter. If you are intent on selling your home before the end of the year, you may want to consider a price reduction now, rather than later. If you reduce your list pricethis coming Monday -- on July 30 -- you likely have a good 60 days of exposure to a larger pool of buyers before contract activity slows down. If you wait, and reduce your price on October 1, you have already had a large number of buyers pass your house by. Think strategically about how your house is priced to best position it to realistically be under contract within a timeframe that best works for you. | |
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What Counts As A Bedroom? |
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![]() You don't have to be a math major to count bedrooms, right? Well, technically, that's true -- but counting bedrooms for real estate purposes can become a bit nuanced. Now, the basic rule of thumb for what makes a bedroom is that it needs a window and a closet. So -- if you have a room with a bed, where someone sleeps (regularly, or on occasion) but it does not have a window or does not have a closet, it might not be considered by Realtors, buyers or appraisers as being an actual bedroom. Now -- the National Appraiser Roster has all sorts of nuances surrounding this topic....
Wow. OK. Lots to consider there. So -- the short answer is that you can count your bedrooms based on whether they have windows and closets -- but it may require a bit more thought and analysis before we decide how many bedrooms we'll say that your home has when we put it on the market. Oh, and two final notes....
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Should You List Your Home in August or September or October? |
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![]() Generally speaking, you should list your home sooner rather than later. As shown above, we are likely to see a declining number of buyers signing contracts between August and September - though then a slight increase again in October. If you are getting ready to put your house on the market in August, let's talk soon to start discussing market value and any preparations you need to make in your home before putting it on the market. | |
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With Few Homes On The Market, You May Have To Compromise A Bit |
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![]() The odds are, you'll have to compromise on SOMETHING when you are buying your next home. The question becomes -- what are you you willing to compromise on? The easiest (at first) sometimes seems to be price -- you still get everything you want, you just have to pay more for it. But if you're drawing a firm line on price, then likely some other need or want will have to be imagined differently. Above is a breakdown of what buyerscompromised on based on the the 2017 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers from the National Association of Realtors. | |
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How To Determine The Square Footage Of Your Home |
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![]() So -- are you trying to figure out the square footage of your home? Here are a few methods that are not certain to give you the correct answer....
So, how do you really measure square footage? It starts outside the home! You'll need to measure the exterior dimensions of each level of your home -- and then subtract any open areas, such as the open space above a foyer. This measurement method, as odd as it may be, is what is used by nearly every appraiser, as it is how "gross living area" is defined by Fannie Mae, HUD, FHA, ERC and ANSI. As such, it is important that you're measuring the square footage of your home in the same way that nearly every appraiser and Realtor would be measuring it, so that you're comparing apples to apples when comparing the size (SF) of your home to another home that has sold or that is on the market for sale. And here's why I consider it to be an odd way to measure square footage....
While the City and County measurements for tax assessment purposes are often very accurate, it is often a good idea to double check the square footage of your home when we're putting it on the market for sale. | |
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Where Home Buyers Found The Home They Bought |
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![]() A new look at some data I have studied for years... What does this mean for home sellers? It means we need to focus our marketing efforts on where buyers are actually looking, and finding, homes for sale. And -- we need to get creative about how to market your home online -- it's not just putting it in the MLS -- but providing an extensive amount of information (photos, virtual walk through, floor plans, etc.) online to allow buyers to fully explore your house as a possibility in their home search. Learn more about the home selling process, and the marketing techniques I typically employ, by visiting SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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Fresh Baked Cookies, An Advanced Home Selling Technique |
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![]() When the home buyers walked into the next home, they were greeted by the pleasant, and heart-warming fragrance of freshly baked cookies. They walked into the kitchen and were delighted to find cookies, indeed -- freshly baked cookies, prepared especially for them. This house already felt like a home, as they started enjoying a tasty cookie while touring the kitchen and beyond. :-) I have had several clients of late who have prepared a large batch of cookie dough and then would pop several cookies into the oven to bake before each showing. Delightful smells -- tangible hospitality -- how can you go wrong? | |
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Do Most Sellers Accept Offers With Home Sale Contingencies? |
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![]() Based on the analysis above, it would seem that sellers are not (in almost all cases) accepting home sale contingencies. Here's the logic....
I must say, I was quite surprised to find this to be the case --- I thought perhaps 10% of contracts might have kickout clauses (and thus home sale contingencies) because plenty of buyers have to sell before buying. It would seem that most buyers are likely waiting to make offers until they have their own properties under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause) AND/OR most sellers are not accepting offers with home sale contingencies unless the buyers' houses are already under contract (thus eliminating the need for the kickout clause). If you are a buyer, I would certainly suggest the strategy outlined above (and the only one that is apparently working with sellers right now) --- get a contract on your house and THEN make an offer on the property you would like to purchase! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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