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Have all price ranges seen equivalent changes in inventory levels? |
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![]() Indeed -- inventory levels are falling -- there aren't nearly as many homes on the market now as there were a year ago. In fact, over the past year, we have seen a 27% decline in the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. However -- not all price ranges are created equal. As shown above, the most significant declines in inventory levels has been in the "under $200K" market, where there has been a 39% decline over the past year. The "over $400K" market, in contrast, has seen no change in the past year in the number of homes for sale. You can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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New home sales are increasing, but is it happening fast enough? |
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![]() After six years of rather stagnant new home sales (41-54 per year) between 2010 and 2015, we are finally starting to see more new home sales in 2016. The graph above shows the number of new single family homes are sold through the MLS for each of the past 10 years. As you can see, we may get close to returning to 2009 sales levels depending on how many closings take place this December. Beyond being excited that these sales are increasing, I am also wondering if they are increasing "fast enough" relative to the inventory shortages we are experiencing. The pace of home sales is increasing, the inventory of homes available for sale is decreasing. One of the only ways for our market to meet this increasing demand for homes is for more home builders to start building spec homes again. I am hopeful we will see more (reasonably priced) spec homes being built in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during 2017. You can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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After three years of stagnation, single family home sales are increasing again |
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![]() Single family home sales are often one of the best indications of the health of a local real estate market, as compared to analyzing ALL home sales, because almost all of them are being purchased by owner occupants. When viewing trends for ALL residential properties, we are including townhouses and condos -- some of which are being purchased by investors -- which means that trends in overall residential sales can be unduly affected by how many investors are buying investment properties. All that said, if the pace of ALL residential sales is increasing, largely due to investor involvement, it can still mean that a market is healthy -- but we must remember that those investor purchasers may not be present in future years, which could lower the pace of overall residential sales. So, with that as the context, it is interesting (exciting?) to notice that the pace of single family home sales were stagnant over the past three years (2013, 2014, 2015), but has now started to increase in 2016. And in fact, the 901 sales shown above only includes the first 11 months of the year. Bottom line -- more owner occupants seem to be purchasing on an annual basis, which is the sign of a healthy and growing local real estate market! You can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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When was the last time we saw more than 1300 home sales in a year? |
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![]() So.....it seems that we'll likely see a total of 1300 (!!!) home sales in 2016. That is based on the 1213 sales we've seen thus far in the first eleven months of 2016 -- and the fact that 93 properties that went under contract in November. If we do, in fact, hit that 1300 number -- it will be the first time that we've seen that many home sales in a single year since waaaaay back in 2006. In fact, as far as I can tell (I only have data since 2000, but I'm thinking 1999 and prior were slower) there have only been four years, ever, when we have seen 1300+ home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. We saw those figures in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, as shown above. In coming days, I'll take a look at why we should (or should not) be worried about another real estate "boom" locally. Until then, you can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Just how crazy were November 2016 home sales? |
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![]() Let's go with "super-crazy" or "like-never-seen-before-in-the-past-10-years-crazy".... There were 111 home sales in November 2016. That is well more than seen in the three most recent months of November (2013, 2014, 2015) when we saw an average of 70 sales per month. In fact, if we look back over the past 10 (!!) years, there isn't even a month of November when there were 111 (or more) home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The closest we came was in 2007 (real estate boom) when there were 108 home sales. In coming days, I'll take a look at why we should (or should not) be worried about another real estate "boom" locally. Until then, you can find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Home Sales Surge, Prices Rise, Inventory Drops in November 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's featured property: 130 Bedford Place I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in November.... ![]() As shown above, it was a very strong month of sales performance in November. Here are a few highlights....
So, how is the overall year doing compared to previous years.... ![]() We have already seen more home sales in the first eleven months of 2016 than we saw in the full year of 2013, 2014 and 2015. At this point, we seem likely to finish out 2016 with more than 1,300 home sales! ![]() The graph above looks at a rolling 12-month window of sales data, showing the slow and steady progress we have made climbing to almost 1300 sales per year, and increasing (very recently) to a median sales price of $190,000. As demand increases (more buyers) prices start to increase if there is not more supply (more sellers) to meet that demand. Speaking of the supply of homes for sale.... ![]() As mentioned above, increased demand (buyers) without increased supply (sellers) leads to increases in prices. Well, as shown directly above, we have certainly not been seeing an increasing supply of homes for sale -- in fact, we have seen a 27% decline in home sellers over the past year! To meet the increasing supply, we need more current homeowners to be selling, as well as more new construction to take place. ![]() And -- guess what -- home sales are not likely to slow down much in December 2016, based on the 93 contracts signed during November 2016 -- which marks a 33% increase over the 70 contracts signed in November 2015. OK, there is plenty more to explore, such as....
But -- I'll let you read all about those tidbits via my full online market report, or by downloading the PDF, or by clicking here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later! Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
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City of Harrisonburg Approves Elementary, Middle School Redistricting Plan |
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![]() The City of Harrisonburg School Board has approved the redistricting plan for the City elementary and middle schools to go into effect this coming (2017-18) school year. The final public hearing took place this past Tuesday, and no members of the public spoke to provide any additional feedback about any further recommended changes. Some excerpts from today's Daily News Record....
Read the full DNR article here. | |
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Inventory Declines 38% YOY Under $200K |
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![]() We have established that there aren't many homes for sale right now, but the under $200K market has seen some of the largest changes in inventory levels. As shown above, the 194 homes for sale under $200K right now marks a 38% decline over the 314 homes that were sale at this same time one year ago. I think we need to see some further new construction under $200K (and in some other price ranges) to help with these low inventory levels. Re-sale homes alone are not going to cure declining inventory levels. | |
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Buy your tickets now for the 2017 Red Wing Roots Music Festival and enjoy Great Music in the Great Outdoors |
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![]() I know, I know, it's cold, you aren't thinking about being outside listening to great music and camping overnight -- but wait -- you should be! As of this morning (10AM) early bird tickets are now on sale for the Red Wing Roots Music Festival to be held on July 14 - 16, 2016 at Natural Chimneys. It is definitely a highlight of our family's summer -- and I encourage you to make it a tradition in your summer as well. Click here to go buy your early bird tickets via Eventbrite. ![]() | |
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Should You Take Your House Off the Market for Winter? |
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![]() In some ways, NO, you should NOT take your house off the market -- because there is a historically LOW number of homes for sale right now. And yet, still, some folks will take their homes off the market for the winter. Our local MLS requires a house to be off the market for 90 days before the "Cumulative Days on Market" statistic resets. So, if you take your house off the market today, you could put it back on the market on the first Monday in March (March 6, 2017) and have that statistic reset. During these 90-ish days of being off the market, we will want to talk about price, condition and marketing....
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Impressive Contract Pace in November 2016 |
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![]() Here's a bit of a sneak peak at my upcoming market report which will be published next week. The graph above shows the number of contracts signed per month over the past two years. As you can see, there were 91 contracts signed this November -- as compared to only 70 and 77 in the two previous Novembers. This bodes well for continued strong sales (closings) into December 2016. | |
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Preston Lake to feature 12 (smaller) apartment buildings instead of 1 (larger) building |
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![]() The Rockingham County Planning Commission will consider a request on Tuesday for a further revision of the Preston Lake master plan. The most recently approved master plan showed one large 168-unit apartment building, and the new master plan will include 12 smaller apartment buildings, presumably with 14 apartments per building. Rockingham County is not required to hold a public hearing to obtain input from nearby residents because the changing the overall density of the community. Here's why.... BEFORE:
AFTER:
This is the affected portion of the master plan before the proposed change.... And here is the same section after the proposed change....
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Fewer and Fewer Homes for Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() I am not kidding around when I tell my buyer clients that there have never been fewer options of homes to buy than RIGHT NOW! I have been tracking housing inventory since February 2008, and we have never (NEVER) seen inventory levels this low. There are currently only 468 homes for sale. Oh, and the pace of buying activity is increasing. Oh, and the population is increasing. I'd say that we have a shortage of housing supply -- and some further new construction is needed in this area! Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Advanced Internet Connected Smoke Alarm from Nest |
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![]() I recently installed a Nest Protect smoke alarm in my house to try out this new(ish) technology. The installation process was quite simple, using the Nest Home iPhone app to allow the Nest Protect smoke alarm to connect to my home wifi network. Physical installation was also very straight forward, as this is a battery operated alarm (not hard-wired) with a 10 year battery life. Some of my favorite features of this product include....
Learn more about the Nest Protect here. | |
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Investing in College Student Housing Offers Risks as well as Rewards |
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![]() As I commented to a potential investor this past week -- investing in student rentals can offer a higher return than other non-student properties, but there are also higher risks associated with such an investment. These include....
Again -- investing in student housing can provide a great return on your investment, but it comes with risks that you should full understand before you make an investment. Learn more about investing at Hunters Ridge here. | |
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Recent Rise in Mortgage Rates is a Small Change in a Historical Context |
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![]() Mortgage interest rates jumped nearly 0.5% over the past week or two, but they are still below 4% given the current average of 3.94% -- and if we look at that rate of 3.94% in nearly any historical context, that is a TREMENDOUSLY LOW mortgage interest rate. As shown above, that is below the average annual mortgage interest rate for every year since 1972 with only two exceptions -- the average rate of 3.66% in 2012 and 3.85% in 2015. Interest rates could edge even higher after the first of the year, so if you like that first digit of your mortgage interest rate being a 3 instead of a 4, and if you'll be buying soon, you may want to start the buying process sooner rather than later. | |
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Solar Barn Raising at Gift and Thrift |
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![]() Gift & Thrift is in the process of adding 300 solar panels to the top of Gift & Thrift and neighboring buildings -- and the video above shows the process of installing the first 160 solar panels, which took place a few weeks ago. Gift & Thrift is now looking for further community support to raise the funds to purchase the remaining solar panels. Once completed, this will be the largest solar array in Harrisonburg AND the 107 kilowatt system will provide 46% of Gift & Thrift's electrical needs, thus allowing them to donate $14,000 more each year to the international relief and development work of MCC. So, action items....
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Mortgage Interest Rates Jump Nearly 0.5% in a Week |
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![]() Stay tuned for where interest rates go next week -- but following the election, they jumped nearly 0.5% up to almost 4%. This takes us back to where we were nearly a year ago -- and is not a tremendously high level, but is much higher than where we were a week ago. Read more via Google News. | |
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54% of Homes (that sell) are Under Contract within 60 Days |
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![]() Every home that goes on the market does not necessarily sell. Every home that goes on the market does not necessarily sell quickly. That said, 54% of the homes that do sell (in the past 12 months) are going under contract within 60 days of being listed for sale. As I always discuss with my clients, it's all about price, condition and marketing. Are we doing everything that we can to prepare your home to be presented well and to sell quickly, in the areas of pricing, condition and marketing? Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Local New Home Sales Hit 7 Year High in 2016 |
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![]() After six years in a row of 54 sales or less of new single family homes in the Harrisonburg/Rockingham MLS, we have seen 73 such sales in the first ten months of 2016. This is an indication that local builders are starting to have a bit more confidence in speculatively building homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Of note -- these numbers do not include the new homes that are built by home builders for individuals who own a lot or piece of land, and thus that never show up in the MLS as a home for sale. With increasing sales, and declining inventory, this seems like an ideal time for local builders to begin more speculative building to help meet local buyer demand. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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