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Sellers Selling for 98% of (Last) List Price |
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![]() This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) in recent years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. Over the past several years, the amount that buyers have been able to negotiate sellers down on price has diminished significantly. Between 2010 and 2012, sellers were negotiating down to a median of 4% off of their (last) list price. Now, sellers are only negotiating down 2%. Of note --- 1. This is a median calculation -- so half of sellers are negotiating more than 2%, and half are negotiating even less than 2%. 2. This is a comparison of the sales price to the LAST list price. If a home is worth $200K and is listed for $300K, it is not likely to sell for 2% less than $300K. The seller is likely to have to continue to reduce the price until it is at a reasonable place -- perhaps 2% or 5% above $200K, and then they will likely negotiate somewhere around 2% to their final sales price. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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4.6% Increase in Median Price Per Square Foot in 2016 |
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![]() In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold in the last few years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past year (2015 to 2016) we have seen increases in both the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes. The median sales price has increased 7% over the past year. The median price per square foot has increased 4.6% over the past year. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Local Homes Sales Up 14% YTD Despite Slower Sales in October 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's featured property: 429 West Marshall Avenue I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in October.... ![]() A few highlights from the quick snapshot above....
OK -- as noted above, the 94 homes sales seen in October 2016 mark a 10% decline as compared to the 105 home sales in October 2015, and that was even lower than the 112 home sales seen in October 2014. But before you get overly depressed about a slower October, remember....
So, it seems that the timing of home sales during the year can vary significantly from year to year. Looking at the past three months together can help put things in perspective in some ways....
There, not so bad now, right? That's a 16% improvement over last year when looking at these three months -- and as noted above, when looking at January through October, the pace of home sales in 2016 is 14% higher than it was last year. OK, on to some other items.... The median value of single family (detached) homes is often the best indicator of trends in home values in a local housing market. As shown above, we have been seeing those values increase over the past five years, most notably over the past two years. Also of note, as shown above, after hovering between 810 and 820 home sales per year for the past three years, it seems we are finally poised to break through that invisible barrier this year, as we are likely to see at least 900 and perhaps 950 single family home sales. If my consoling notes above about why slower October home sales weren't so bad didn't help, then perhaps the graph above will help. Slower home sales in October 2016 does not mean that the fast and furious pace of 2016 home sales has come to an end. As shown above, buyers (and sellers) signed 109 home sales in October 2016 -- a 33% increase over the 82 contracts signed last October. So -- we might be in for another month of stronger sales in November. If you are trying to buy a home right now, it is quite possible that you are frustrated by not having many options to choose from. The graph above might explain why you are having this experience. Inventory levels continue to fall -- to where we now only have 480 homes on the market!?!?! This is as compared to a year ago when there were 640 homes on the market at this time -- showing a 25% year-over-year decline. This lack of inventory is slowly starting to tip the market in the favor of sellers, though not in all price ranges and not in all locations. OK, there is plenty more to say, such as....
But -- I'll let you read all about those tidbits via my full online market report, or by downloading the PDF, or by clicking here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email. And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later! Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions. | |
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Kevo Plus from Kwikset is a fun and useful Smark Lock |
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![]() I recently installed a Kevo smart lock from Kwikset at my home and am enjoying the conveniences of unlocking the door simply by touching the lock instead of using a key -- and the ability to remotely lock and unlock the door. The installation of the lock was relatively straightforward -- it replaces your existing lock, fits most doors, and can be keyed to match your existing Kwikset locks on your home. Learn more about this smart lock on the Kwikset website. | |
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Where does Harrisonburg need sidewalks and paths? |
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![]() You can have a voice -- make your opinion known as to where the City of Harrisonburg should consider installing sidewalks and shared-use paths. ![]() The Harrisonburg Public Works Department will be presenting a proposed Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan on November 16th at Keister Elementary School at 5:00 PM. You can review the proposed plan here on the City's website. | |
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Harrisonburg City Public Schools Redistricting Information |
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![]() Click here to download the proposed Elementary School and Middle School maps. (current as of 11/7/2016, check here for updates) If you haven't heard, Harrisonburg City Public Schools are in the midst of a redistricting process, which may change which elementary school or middle school your child will attend in the City of Harrisonburg. This redistricting is a result of the changes required by the forthcoming opening (Fall 2017) of Bluestone Elementary School on Garbers Church Road. A few highlights to address some FAQ's....
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Making Sense of Buyer Feedback |
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![]() As a home seller, you will face rejection left and right -- many prospective buyers will come view your house and most of them will decide not to buy it. But how, as a seller, do you make sense of that feedback? I often hear the following types of feedback after a showing:
This type of feedback (size, location, floor plan) is difficult to do much with as a seller. You likely aren't going to build an addition to your house, nor will you physically move the house, nor will you reconfigure the floor plan. Sometimes the feedback is just a mild objection to be overcome -- did you realize that the unfinished bonus room could be finished quite inexpensively (size) and that the new South East connector will make your commute quite short (location)? Oftentimes, however, if you receive feedback about size, location or floor plan there isn't much you can do about it as a seller. I also, however, will hear the following types of feedback after a showing:
This type of feedback (price, condition, marketing) is completely in your control as a seller. Many buyers will not make an offer if they think your list price is too far from reality -- adjusting your pricing may be just what you need to either generate more showings, or have a chance of the showings turning into offers. I almost included AGE as a factor outside of a seller's control, but it's much more about condition -- how well has a property been maintained, and is it in top showing shape so that buyers don't feel overwhelmed by short-term cosmetic updates and long-term maintenance needs? Finally, if a house has not been marketed thoroughly and effectively, it will likely have a much longer "days on market" than other properties, worrying buyers that perhaps they shouldn't buy the home because nobody else has in the last ten months. Read more about, think more about, and learn more about selling your house at SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com. | |
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Home Buyers Continue Fast Pace of Contract Signing in October 2016 |
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![]() An early look at home buying activity (contracts being signed) in October 2016 indicates that the local real estate market is still not showing any signs of slowing down. After a decline to 99 signed contracts in September 2016, buyers signed 110 contracts in October 2016. This marks a 34% improvement over last October's 82 contracts. Looking back to the start of the main home buying season, there have been 1,018 contracts signed since March 2016 --- compared to only 861 contracts during the same time frame last year. Stay tuned for my full real estate market report next week with plenty of additional details on our local housing market. If you want to receive that monthly market report by email, click here to sign up. | |
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Does buying or leasing make more sense with a two year time frame? |
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![]() ![]() Does buying or leasing make more sense with a two year time frame? It depends on the price range, how much of a down payment you are making, whether you are willing to keep the property as a rental property after you move out, and many other factors. However, above I have included is a 2-year and a 3-year analysis of buying versus renting a property valued at $150K compared to $300K, which shows that....
There are, of course, plenty of extenuating circumstances. Many people might buy a $150K house (or townhouse) even if they are planning to be there for only 3 years --- because they want their own home (not their landlord's), or to get in a certain neighborhood, or because of the tax benefits, etc.
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Status of Projects in Urban Development Area |
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![]() view a larger version of this map as a JPG or PDF This map from Rockingham County of the Urban Development Area is frequently updated, and provides helpful updates on the status of each project currently under development (or nearing development) in this growth area just southeast of the City of Harrisonburg. Current updates include....
Download a larger version of this map as a JPG or PDF. | |
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Ground Breaking for Hotel Madison in Downtown Harrisonburg |
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![]() The forthcoming hotel and conference center being built on the edge of the JMU campus, held its ceremonial groundbreaking yesterday. The project is due to be complete by March 2018. Read more in today's Daily News Record article, or read on for some highlights....
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You can help support the Harrisonburg Rockingham Child Daycare Center |
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![]() Harrisonburg Rockingham Child Day Care Center has been a vital part of this community since 1971 and provides high quality childcare to children ages 2 – 5. The child care center offers an income based sliding fee scale which allows them to be affordable to all families regardless of their income. ![]() My colleague, Pete Laver, is participating in the 7th Annual "Dancing with the Stars of the 'Burg" competition where local celebrity stars are matched with an amateur dance partner from the Shenandoah Valley chapter of USA Dance. The contestants practice and fundraise for 14 weeks, leading up to the competition on November 6, 2016 at the JMU Grand Ballroom, Festival Conference and Student Center. Last year over $105,000 was raised to support the Harrisonburg Rockingham Child Daycare Center. The majority of the funds raised are reserved in a building fund to fulfill the Daycare's dream of having their own home. Will you join me in supporting the Harrisonburg Rockingham Child Daycare Center? Your donation is 100% tax deductible! Visit www.WHSV.com/dance and scroll down to vote for Team Laver! Right now, your donation will be matched by Funkhouser Real Estate Group up to a total of $5,000! | |
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Mortgage Interest Rates Edge Up, Barely |
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![]() Mortgage interest rates edged up, barely, this week to an average of 3.52%. That pushes us above the 3.5% mark, after several months mostly below that mark. Let's look at a slightly longer (5 year) perspective.... ![]() As shown above, we are currently seeing some of the best interest rates in the past three years. The only time we have seen similar rates was in Fall 2012 through Spring 2013. Let me know if you need a recommendation for a mortgage lender for a purchase or refinance. | |
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Who bought what, when, for how much? |
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![]() Looking for information about recent property transfers in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? Be sure to check out HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com. | |
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Broadway Virginia Real Estate Update |
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![]() Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending in Broadway in recent years.... ![]() As shown above, 2016 may be the best year in recent memory for home sales in Broadway, Virginia. The estimate of 101 home sales is based on YTD (Jan 1 - Oct 17) home sales. ![]() Median Sales Prices are also on the rise in Broadway, as shown above. Based on YTD home sales, the median sales price is $183K -- significantly higher than in any recent year. You can find homes currently for sale in Broadway here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Broadway real estate market! | |
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Where are building lots actually selling in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County? |
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![]() A common question amongst builders and would be lot-buyers is where building lots actually selling these days in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Let's take a look.... ![]() As shown above, the most active subdivision for home sales (and the location with the highest price) has been The Springs at Osceola. Lot sales are a bit slower this year (46 so far in 2016) than in previous years (78 in 2015, 84 in 2014). Stay tuned for more updates on lot sales as we move forward. | |
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Foreclosures Continue to Decline in Harrisonburg Area |
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![]() The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending downward, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013, 6.7 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014, and 8.1 times as many in 2015. Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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New Home Sales Increasing in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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![]() New home builders experienced a steady decline in new home sales between 2006 and 2010 -- dropping 78% from a peak of 186 to 41 sales in a year. Even if we use a starting point of 2001 (before the housing boom) we still see a 70% drop between 2001 and 2010. The number of new home sales per year has not crept up much since that time -- staying between 38 and 54 new home sales per year. This year, however, seems to be QUITE different. We have now seen 65 new home sales in the first nine months of the year, exceeding the full year of sale seen for each of the past six years -- a welcome sign for new home builders! Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() | |
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Annual Pace of Home Sales Set to Rise in 2016 |
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![]() Take a look at the astonishing pace of home sales thus far in 2016. As shown above, the Jan-Sep home sales this year already exceeds the Jan-Oct home sales for the past two years. If not a single home sold in October, we'd still be ahead of the pace of home sales from the past two years! Looking at the graph above, it is hard to imagine (very, very hard to imagine) that we will not see an increase in the annual pace of home sales during 2016. At this point, I'm thinking 1200 sales -- but maybe it could get all the way up to 1250? Or even 1300? Find out more about the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market by visiting.... ![]() And, if you are preparing to buy or sell a home, here are two handy references.... | |
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Astonishingly High Home Sales in September 2016 |
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![]() Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 953 Greenbriar Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in September.... ![]() A few highlights from the basic data breakdown outlined above....
Now, let's contextualize those strong September sales.... ![]() As stated above, there were a LOT of home sales in September 2016 -- a whopping 123 of them. When was the most recent time when we saw this many homes sales (or more) during the month of September? Waaaaaaay back in September 2005 when there were 136 home sales seems to be the only time we have ever seen more than 123 home sales. Wow! ![]() The median sales price of single family homes are often an excellent indicator of the price trends in a local real estate market, as they show a purer form of owner occupant supply and demand. When we examine townhouses as well, we are observing the buyer behavior of both owner occupants and investors -- and there can be much more short-term volatility in demand from investors. So, with the assumption that we'll get the clearest picture of price trends by looking at single family homes, it is striking to see a steady increase in median sales prices of these properties as shown in the graph above. ![]() This graph clearly illustrates what a busy buying season it has been over the past seven months. We have seen an average of 130 contracts per month over the past seven months -- as compared to an average of only 96 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015. These strong contract numbers, clearly, are leading to the busy season of closings -- and we are likely to see yet another strong month of sales in October based on these contracts. ![]() Finally -- buyers are finding fewer and fewer choices in the market -- as inventory levels (as shown above) have declined 16% over the past year. Looking back further (not shown above) there has been a 23% over the past two years! Well, there is much more to know, learn, read....but I'll pause here for now, and I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. You can read my entire market report online....
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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