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Dayton Virginia Real Estate Market Update |
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Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending in Dayton in recent years.... As is evident above, the real estate market has been steadily improving over the past few years as far as the number of homes that are selling each year. Of note -- the 40 home sales shown for 2016 is based on the 32 home sales that have taken place thus far in 2016. Median sales prices have also been steadily increasing over the past few years -- though with such a small sample size, this is not likely an indication of solely an increase in home values -- but also a change in the types of homes that were sold in each of those years. Suffice it to say that I don't believe we've seen a 59% increase in home values in Dayton, VA between 2013 and 2016. You can find homes currently for sale in Dayton here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Dayton real estate market! | |
Bridgewater Real Estate Market Update |
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Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending in Bridgewater in recent years.... As shown above, 2016 is poised to be the strongest year in quite a while for home sales in Bridgewater, VA. Of note, the 76 sales shown for 2016 is an estimate based on the 64 home sales that have happened thus far in 2016. There is not quite as clear of a picture of trends in home values in Bridgewater, VA -- though this is likely because we are working with a small data set. The mix of which homes sell in any given year can make this metric bounce up and down a bit. You can find homes currently for sale in Bridgewater here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Bridgewater real estate market! | |
A Low Offer On Your House Is Not A Terrible Thing |
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Sellers are usually quite shocked, dismayed or disheartened to receive a low offer on their house, for example, an offer of $365K on a $415K listing. But it is important to remember that even that low offer really is a compliment! If you have not yet had an offer on your house (that is listed at $415K) and you receive an offer of $365K, that doesn't necessarily mean your house is only worth $365K, nor does it necessarily mean that you should accept $365K or something close to it. It does, however, mean something quite exciting --- somebody wants to buy your house!!! Of course, negotiations won't always work out with low offers -- but recognize a low offer for what it is -- a buyer who wants to buy your house, and perhaps the first buyer who has declared as much through a written offer! If there is any way to put a deal together with those buyers, you ought to pursue it, as it's hard to know when the next buyer will work up the courage to tell you that they want to buy your house! | |
Is It Too Late In The Year To List Your Home For Sale? |
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I believe this question is best answered by evaluating when buyers make an actual buying decision -- which is when they sign a contract. The data above shows when buyers sign contracts -- calculated by averaging data from the three most recent years. As can be seen, the busiest buying season is March through August when an average of 123 buyers per month make a buying decision. The remaining six months of the year (September through February) show anywhere between 50% and 77% as many buyers as the average of 123 per month seen in the busiest six months of the year. So -- listing your home on November 1st (for example) is not a terrible idea -- we'll see 64% as many buyers signing contracts in November as compared to the average busy month. That said, in the following month (December) we're likely to only see half as many buyers as compared to the average month | |
How Many Home Sales Might We See for the Remainder of 2016? |
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In 2014 and 2016 we saw 805-858 home sales in the first nine months of the year, and then 268-276 in the last three months of the year. Given this year's 961 (!!??!!) home sales in the first nine months of the year, we might see as many as 315 home sales in the last three months of the year. Or, alternatively, the pace of sales could certainly slow down after a frantic first nine months. If we do indeed see 361 sales, that would result in a total of 1,276 home sales this year compared to only 1,126 sales last year. | |
Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market Update |
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Let's take a look at how home sales have been trending at Massanutten Resort in recent years.... As shown above, home sales have been increasing at Massanutten Resort over the past five years, with the exception of a small decline in 2015. Of note -- there have already (as of 9/28/2016) been 52 home sales in 2016 -- so we are likely to see more home sales this year in Massanutten Resort than in any of the previous five years. The 64 home sales shown above for 2016 are an estimate based on year-to-date home sales (52) and the timing of sales in 2015. Value trends over time at Massanutten Resort don't paint quite as clear of a picture, but it can certainly be said that home values have been, generally speaking, increasing over the past 5 - 6 years. Values dipped down a bit more than expected in 2014, jumped up a bit more than expected in 2015, and are where we might have otherwise expected them to be in 2016 if we hadn't had that odd low and odd high. This is a relatively small data set (40 - 60 home sales) which can cause some irregularities in value trends. You can find homes currently for sale in Massanutten Resort here. Let me know if you have any questions about the Massanutten Resort real estate market! | |
More High End Apartments To Be Built at The Reserve at Stoneport |
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view a larger image view a larger image Apparently our area has an unmet need of high end rental properties, as The Reserve at Stoneport will be expanding their community off of Port Republic Road near Sentara RMH Medical Center. Current Community: 168 apartments Planned Expansion: 240 apartments Per the developer, the current inventory of apartments are 98 to 99 percent full, and the first apartments in the new phase will be available in late 2017. Rental rates will range from $985 - $1735 per month, and there were be even more one-bedroom units in the new phase....
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Mortgage Interest Rates Still Historically Low, For Now |
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Mortgage interest rates were historically low a year ago, though they around 3.86%. Now, they are REALLY low, with the current average of 3.48%. But at the end of the day, they have been at or below (or just barely above) 4% for the past 12 months -- which means that it has been a fantastic year to lock in one's monthly housing costs. But, will the interest rate be rising in December or January? There is some talk that the Fed will increase the "Fed Funds Rate" in December, which could lead to an increase in mortgage interest rates. Oh, and just to put things in a slightly larger context, here is an illustration of average mortgage rates over the past three years.... | |
Campaign Launches to Build Park in Downtown Harrisonburg |
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The fundraising campaign for building a park in Downtown Harrisonburg kicked off last evening with an event at Pale Fire Brewing Co. with the exciting announcement that $500,000 has already been raised for the project! The park is estimated to cost $5.5 million to be built, and will be built on 4.2 acres of city-owned land including the municipal parking lot on South Liberty Street, the Harrisonburg Farmer's Market Turner Pavilion and the grassy lawn area next to the parking lot. Construction on the park is expected to start in 2017. View the layout of the park and learn about opportunities to support this effort by visiting BuildOurPark.org. Read today's Daily News Record article here. | |
In Real Estate, Price Cures All Flaws |
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My house is next to the railroad tracks, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the railroad tracks. My house has an unbelievably steep driveway, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the steep driveway. My house is needs many cosmetic updates, but all of the potential buyers (who did not make an offer on my house) didn't complain about price, they complained about the need for cosmetic updates. Guess what --- unless you're going to move the railroad tracks (or the house), flatten the driveway, or make all of the cosmetic updates -- it really is an issue of price! If you're getting consistent feedback about your house that is unrelated to price, in almost all cases, you need to adjust the price to accommodate for that specific issue. If the price is lower then buyers might actually buy despite the specific issue that they were complaining about. | |
Another Strong(ish) Year of High End Home Sales |
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We saw an amazing 29 home sales over $500K last year -- which was the highest seen anytime since 2008. This year we are on track to likely match that pace of high end sales, with 21 home sales over $500K in the first 9.5 months of the year. Again, last year showed an amazing number (19) of home sales over $600K - the highest since all the way back in 2007 -- but it does not seem that we will see that many home sales in 2016. With 10 home sales on the books thus far, we have exceed 2011-2014 levels, but it seems unlikely we'll get all the way up to 19 home sales this year. Finally, looking at the super-high-end home sales (over $700K) we are seeing a significant drop off from last year. Last year we saw a remarkable 11 home sales over $700K, which seems to be the highest number on record, ever. This year, however, we have only seen 3 home sales over $700K thus far. | |
Is Every House Currently Listed For Sale Just As Exciting As The Next? |
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As shown above, many homes currently listed for sale have already been on the market for some time, picked over by all of the current buyers in the market. That said, it's possible that one of these homes is the PERFECT house for you, and that seller has been patiently waiting nine months for YOU, the perfect buyer for the house. As we start your home search, we'll first look through the homes currently for sale (realizing that they won't ALL be great and exciting options) and then we'll start to monitor new listings as they come on the market. | |
Find Out About Every New Home For Sale in Harrisonburg, Within Minutes |
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If you are a fanatic about finding out about new listings -- especially since there aren't many houses on the market right now -- then you shoud know about NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com.... On this new-ish website, you can quickly and easily scroll through the most recent residential listings in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, view the pertinent details, all of the photographs of the home, an area map, and then quickly and easily share that new listing with a friend, your spouse, your Realtor, etc. You can also sign up to receive an email alert every time there is a new listing.... And, finally, you can add the website to the home screen if you'd like, for quick and easy access.... If you have any questions about this new website, or suggestions for improving it, just let me know. Until then, go check it out, at NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com. | |
44% Fewer Homes for Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Buyers are finding fewer and fewer options of homes to purchase in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as inventory levels continue to decline. The graph above shows the number of homes for sale in early September for each of the past eight years. There are 44% fewer homes for sale now as compared to at the peak of inventory levels in 2010. Even looking over the past year, there has been a 12% decline in inventory. These low inventory levels are frustrating buyers in many price ranges, giving them limited options of homes to purchase and SOMETIMES creating multiple offer situations. If you are getting ready to sell your home, it is important to understand the dynamic of how many other home sellers you will be competing against, so we will want to take a look at inventory levels in your particular segment of the market. | |
Median sales prices almost back to high of 2007 |
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The graph above shows four periods of changes in the local median sales price....
Between the start of last decade (2000) and the peak of the housing boom (2007) the median sales price increased from $116K to $195K. Then, the median sales price dropped all the way back down to 169,900 in 2011. Now, in 2016, we are almost all the way back up to the 2006 peak of a median sales price of $195,100 -- with our current median sales price of $195,000. Thus, if you bought in 2007, your home almost (-2.6%) be now worth what it was when you purchased it. | |
Wild month of home sales in August 2016, contextualized |
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As reported yesterday, we had a RECORD NUMBER of home sales in August 2016. There were 154 home sales --and the most recent month when we saw more than 154 home sales was waaaaaay back in August 2006. With plenty of contracts in August 2016 as well, we are likely to see another strong month of sales in September --- though maybe not 154 of them. Read more about the local housing market here.... | |
Record Number of Home Sales in August 2016 |
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Learn more about this month's Featured Property: 3465 Izaak Walton Drive I just published my monthly report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Jump to the full online market report, download the PDF, or read on for highlights.... First, let's take a look at the overall market performance in August.... A few highlights from the basic data breakdown outlined above....
As promised, a bit more context. The 154 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during August 2016 marked the HIGHEST number of home sales seen anytime in the previous 10 years. We'd have to stretch back 121 months to August 2006 to find the next highest month of home sales, when we saw 156 home sales. But wait, there's more. If you thought August home sales was the end of a series of strong months, you might be wrong. Take a look at the contract data (above) and you'll note that there were a whopping 130 contracts signed in August -- a 20% increase over last August. As such, we should expect to see strong September/October sales as well. Also of note, over the past six months we have seen an average of 135 contracts signed per months, as compared to only 116 per month a year prior. And the inventory levels keep on dropping. Buyers have fewer and fewer choices these days with current inventory levels hovering around 560 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. This results in the best listings (price, condition, marketing) being sold quickly. There is much more to know, learn, read.... I'll pause here for now, but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose. You can read my entire market report online....
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Fewer Sellers Providing Closing Cost Credits |
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Only 39.3% of sellers have paid for a part the buyer's closing costs on home sales that have closed thus far in 2016. This marks a decline from the 47.7% of sellers who paid buyer closing costs last year. However.... As shown above, the amount of closing costs that sellers are paying is certainly increasing. The average amount of closing costs paid by a seller (when a credit was provided at all) has increased from $4,150 (in 2015) to an average of $4,328 in 2016. Also of note.... As shown above, of the sellers who are paying buyer closing costs, it is most common for them to pay between $4K and $6K towards the buyer's closing costs. So....if, as a seller, you are asked to pay the buyer's closing costs -- you are not alone (40-ish percent of sellers do) and you will likely be asked to pay $4K - $6K. | |
Affordable Housing Apartment Complex Under Construction on Reservoir Street |
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click here for a larger version of this aerial image Just a stone's throw away from this new student housing being built on Reservoir Street, you will find another large patch of bare earth in preparation for a new residential development. This new community is being built on the site of the former Albert Long baseball field off of Reservoir Street (across from Fieldale Place) in Rockingham County. This complex will be called Robinson Park, and will include 88 garden-style apartments. According to the developer, this will include:
A clubhouse / community building will also be constructed. Per this Daily News Record article....
Read more from the Daily News Record.... Affordable Housing In Focus In City, County N.C. Company Eyes Housing On Reservoir | |
Dirt is moving on Reservoir Street for the construction of the Retreat at Harrisonburg |
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click here for a larger version of this aerial image If you have driven along Reservoir Street lately, you would have noticed the massive area on the hospital side or Reservoir Street where trees have been cleared for a new housing development. This site will soon be home to 700 college students in a new development called "The Retreat at Harrisonburg", being developed by Landmark Properties out of Athens, GA. The developer has acquired 36.81 acres for $5.71 million in August after the land was rezoned in May to allow for this community to be developed. This same developer is (per their website) also currently developing The Retreat at Blacksburg, a student housing community for 829 students. Read more about this purchase and development in this Daily News Record article.... Student Housing Developer Buys County Land August 30, 2016 Here is the intended site plan.... Per documents submitted to the County, we know the following about this potential student housing community....
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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