New Construction
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67 Four Bedroom Townhouses on Lucy Drive Instead of 107 Apartments, Retail, and Office Space? |
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 The owner of two parcels on Lucy Drive applied for a rezoning in mid-2018 to allow for a mixed use development that was to include (4) three to four level buildings with retail and offices on the first level and apartments on the upper levels. The (107) proposed apartments were intended to be (57) four-bedroom apartments, (37) three-bedroom apartments, (10) two-bedroom apartments and (3) one-bedroom apartments. That proposal was denied by City Council after 90 people showed up in opposition to the project. Now, the owners/developers are back with a new proposal -- 67 four bedroom townhouses.  Here's the full packet of information that will be considered by the Harrisonburg Planning Commission this evening, Wednesday, March 13 at 7:00 PM. This property is zoned R-3, which allows for townhouses to be built -- but the zoning ordinance requires that each townhouse lot have frontage on a public street, and the owner is applying for a variance to allow 32 of the planned 67 townhouses to not have frontage on a public street. Basically, if all townhouses need to have frontage on a public street, they could only build half as many townhouses. If the City allows them to have a private street for access to the townhouses they can build many more (67?) townhouses on the same amount of acreage. In the information packet linked above you'll note that City staff points out that there have been quite a few townhouse developments approved in the past 20 years with private streets -- but almost all of those variances that were granted were for subdivisions that were conforming to the Comprehensive Plan's Land Use Guide and planned densities - while this land is intended (per the Comprehensive Plan) for "limited commercial use". Bottom line - City staff is recommending that the request for the variance (and thus the preliminary subdivision plat) be denied. If the Planning Commission makes a decision as to a recommendation to City Council at the meeting this evening, this proposal will then go before City Council on April 9 -- without a public hearing, since it is a request for a variance, not a rezoning. Read the Daily News Record article (from yesterday) about this topic here. | |
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49 More Detached Homes Coming To The Crossings |
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 The Crossings, a neighborhood of detached homes straddling the City/County line, will be expanding - from 35 homes to 84 homes - after a slight rezoning of the land by Rockingham County. The first phase of the neighborhood included 35 building lots, most of which have been built upon and the homes sold. The new phase will include 49 home sites, with 40 of them in the County and nine in the City. Here's the site plan for the new phase...  Here is a somewhat recent aerial view of the area -- from about two years ago -- when many but not all of the homes had been built...  Dick Blackwell with Blackwell Engineering works with the developer and indicated at the Board of Supervisors meeting that the houses will cost about $200,000. That does seem possible given recent sales at The Crossings, many of which have been close to $200K...  Looking a bit further at the metrics, we find that the median sales price of homes at The Crossings in 2018 was $226K...  After lots of news of new rentals, condos and townhouses, it's nice to hear that some modestly sized/priced detached homes will be built in the near future as well! | |
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Rezoning Requested For 86 Condos on Boyers Road |
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 Randy Cosner (Cosner Investments, LLC) is requesting the rezoning of 5.9 acres of a 10 acre parcel on Boyers Road to allow for 86 condominiums to be built. The property is currently zoned A2, and the proposed zoning is Planned Multi-Family. This would allow for 86 condos with 1, 2 or 3 bedrooms, for a total of 186 bedrooms in four separate buildings surrounding common areas. The full rezoning request can be found here. Here's what the proposed site plan would look like...  Per the rezoning application, the development would be called Locust Grove Village and would "provide a unique living opportunity for those inclined toward the beneficial aspects of community and socialization in a rural setting." Here is a rendering of what the buildings might look like...  A few details from the developer's narrative include... "Specifically, Locust Grove Village will house no more than 86 individual condominiums containing a mixture of 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units. Units will be clustered into four buildings of 20-22 units apiece, with a majority of these units having a ‘townhouse' style and appearance. Building ‘corners' will be comprised of six condominium units served by a common entry and stairwell. Each pair of buildings will encircle a central green, with each townhouse-style condo having direct access through their own private courtyard. Half of the corner units will have balconies/courtyards that face the common green (interior), while the other half will face the exterior." "The central greens will be improved with tasteful landscaping (mixture of trees and shrubbery), paved walkways, a central gazebo, charcoal grills, and benches, intended to promote resident interaction and sense of community. If desired by residents, allowances will be made for community gardens, to be maintained by the residents themselves, and thereby promoting a sense of pride and ownership within the community. Pedestrian connectivity between the greens will be provided through walkways and a mid-block crosswalk through the parking area." "In sum, Locust Grove Village is intended to serve a growing desirability for attractive, communal living opportunities within a rural setting. Through emphasis of common areas and promotion of interaction between residents, Locust Grove Village will position itself as the premier condominium-based community within Rockingham County." The Rockingham County Planning Commission reviewed this rezoning request at their January 2019 meeting. Their main concerns, per the minutes, seemed to be:
The rezoning request was unanimously tabled at the Planning Commission meeting. We'll have to wait and see if the request will be reviewed and discussed again, but at this point these condos "might be" built -- because the rezoning has not yet been approved. | |
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32 Townhouses To Be Built on Boyers Road |
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 Randy Cosner is planning to build 32 townhouses on 2.741 acres on Boyers Road as shown above. Below is the intended site layout, which includes common areas with a fenced tot lot playground and a picnic area with benches and a fire pit.  The townhouses are to be built similar to the rendering below. Of note -- it is not clear whether these townhouses will be sold to individual buyers, sold to investors to then be rented, or retained by the builder to be rented. The townhouses pictured below are located on Leslie Court, located off of Vine Street, near its intersection with North Main Street. All 24 townhouses built on Leslie Court were purchased by investors (a total of perhaps four entities) and all 24 townhouses are now rented.  If you have driven by this location (Boyers Road) anytime recently you will have seen that all of the trees have cleared to prepare for construction. | |
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156 Apartments To Be Built on Reservoir Street |
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 Well, it looks like another 156 apartments will be built on Reservoir Street, just outside of the City limits in Rockingham County. The Board of Supervisors recently approved a rezoning of this 6.302 acres to essentially be a second phase of the Robinson Park apartments immediately adjacent to this new project. Per the Daily News Record the 156 apartment complex will be comprised of:
Apparently, the complex will also include a clubhouse and outdoor pool.  Further review of the minutes from the January 23, 2019 meeting of the Board of Supervisors offers these insights...
So, there you have it. More apartments coming soon on Resevoir Street... which may or may not make Harrisonburg a place young alums can call home for decades... | |
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Will Single Family Home Sales Ever Return to 2016 Peak? |
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 I actually asked the same question last year. Thus far, the answer is still -- NO -- detached homes might not (??) ever (??) return to their 2016 peak. Actually, I don't completely hold to that conclusion, but read on for a moment. After three years straight (2013, 2014, 2015) of seeing a *very *consistent number of detached homes in the City and County (813-819) there was a 20% increase in 2016 to 978 home sales! But then, in 2017 -- sales of detached homes fell 10% to 884 sales. This could have partially been an inventory issue -- with fewer and fewer homes available for buyers to purchase -- but I have recently concluded that home sales can remain stable even with declining inventory levels. So -- getting back to it -- will we return to that 2016 peak of 978 detached home sales? Or will we beat it and hit 1,000 detached home sales at some point soon? We did see a few years of those sales levels in 2004 (1024 sales) and 2005 (1025) but that was amidst the real estate BOOM. I'm going to say that YES we can expect to get back up to those 2016 levels -- and even beyond that -- but it might take another year or two AND we probably need some new detached homes to be built. If that is even possible. As always, let me know what you think! Are you more optimistic (or pessimistic) than I am about detached home sales? | |
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What Would It Take For New Construction (For Sale) Housing To Be Built, At Scale, In or Around Harrisonburg |
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 As you may have heard -- the market is hot -- sales are stead, inventory levels are declining and homes are selling more and more quickly. Perhaps, just perhaps, we need some new homes to be built to add to the supply side of the equation? So -- after all that -- what would it take for us to see more new construction (for sale) housing in and around Harrisonburg? 1. More highly motivated sellers of development land. 2. Fewer student housing, rental housing and mixed use developers. You see, there are parcels of land for sale in and around Harrisonburg right now -- or parcels of land that could be purchased where a builder could build homes and buyers could buy those homes and everyone would live happily ever after. But -- most sellers of development land aren't overly motivated to sell quickly AND they are convinced that their land should be valued as if it is being sold to a student housing, rental housing or mixed use developer. And, so long as there are student housing, rental housing or mixed use developers willing to buy land at a high price/acre AND/OR as long as owners of development land are willing to hold out for that high price/acre -- then land is not likely to be sold to developers or builders at a price/acre that would allow them to build homes for buyers to buy. I think it is important that our local housing stock increase over the next five years with more options for buyers (especially first -- or second -- time buyers) to make Harrisonburg their home. But right now, we seem to be at a bit of a stalemate -- sellers of development land don't want to sell their land at prices that would allow a builder/developer to build homes for sale -- and builders/developers don't want to pay (can't pay) overly high prices/acre and still deliver a product to the market at a price that a buyer would be able to afford. | |
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Will We See Modest Sized New Homes Built Anytime Soon? |
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 Between 2000 and 2012, three centrally located townhouse developments were built in Harrisonburg:
Some of these townhomes were purchased by investors. Some were purchased by folks who have since sold and left the area. Some were purchased by folks who have since sold and bought a new, larger home, in or near Harrisonburg But I believe a lot of the original (or second) owners of these 614 townhouses are now looking around Harrisonburg wondering where they will, where they can go next. I believe our market desperately needs mid sized detached homes to be built, as these many townhouse owners are now older, often have started a family, and are looking for more space -- but can't jump up to buying a $350K to $400K home. What might these mid sized detached homes look like? Perhaps....
Note: This was written a year go -- and republished today -- and sadly, I don't think much has changed or improved over the past year. | |
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Is Overbuilding Occurring In Harrisonburg That Will Affect Buyers Of Investment Properties |
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 I am working with several real estate investors who are considering the purchase of townhouses in the $140K - $170K price range that they would intend to rent to young professionals / recent college graduates / young families, etc. A reasonable question for a thoughtful investor considering this type of purchase is whether our market is being overbuilt such that they may have difficulty renting their investment property in the future (higher vacancy) or that they may not be able to maintain their rental rate in the future. I do not believe that type of overbuilding is currently happening in our market -- though it could certainly happen in the future. But let's explore it together... Most of what one would see being built in Harrisonburg right now is either student housing or high end rentals -- and I don't believe either of these draws in the potential tenants described above -- and thus this construction would not negatively impact the investors purchasing the type of property described above. Student Housing - We continue to see more and more of this being built in our market. Young professionals are certainly not going to rent in a student housing complex -- and historically, when student housing supply has exceeded demand, the oldest and least desirable complexes have seen the biggest swings in vacancy rates (up) and rental rates (down) -- which again is not going to draw in the potential tenants we are discussing above. High End Rentals - The most obvious spot where these are being built is at The Reserve at Stone Port, though others are also planned at Preston Lake. These are apartments (instead of townhouses as discussed above) and the rental rates are much higher (for the amount of leased space) than our target tenant population would be finding in a townhouse. Again, I don't think these draw potential tenants away from the type of property that my investor clients are considering. Now -- even if the majority of what is currently being built is not likely to have a negative impact on the buyers of investment properties -- that's not to say that some other near-term construction would not have an impact. If a developer/builder started building (100) townhouses with 1400 SF, 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and intended to rent them for $950 - $1100 per month, that could impact the investment market I am describing. If a developer/building started building (100) townhouses with 1400 SF, 2 or 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and intended to sell them for $150K - $170K, that could impact the investment market I am describing. Neither of these types of developments are currently underway, though they are certainly both theoretically possible. So - given all of the above, it would seem to be a reasonable time to buy an investment property in that $140K - $160K price range, as I do not believe current inventory levels or new construction trends (for sale or for rent) are negatively impacting the buyers of these types of investment properties. | |
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Home Construction Nearing Completion The Glen at Cross Keys |
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 The Glen at Cross Keys is a new home development just East of Harrisonburg -- on Cross Keys Road with 78 duplexes and paired homes. The final nine homes in the neighborhood are at various stages of construction -- and seven of those nine are already under contract! The final two homes to be built in The Glen at Cross Keys just came on the market. These 2100 SF homes have been popular with a retiring, down sizing demographic -- with an open layout on the first level with the kitchen, dining area, living room, master suite, laundry room, an office/den and a two-car garage all on the main level. The partial second level features two large bedrooms and a full bathroom. Buyers interested in The Glen at Cross Keys have two more opportunities to buy a new home -- and then it will be a matter of patiently waiting for a resale home to become available. Find out more about The Glen at Cross Keys here. | |
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Lots (and lots) of High End Apartments Being Built |
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 In addition to the 168 apartments about to be built at the intersection of Stone Spring Road and East Market Street (near Preston Lake) -- there are already hundreds now complete at The Reserve at Stoneport. Per my earlier research, it seems this community may contain 408 apartments, with rental rates from $1000 - $1800. How many high end apartments are needed in this area? While only a few years ago no high end apartments existed in our local market, now I believe Stoneport is already nearly entirely leased. How much unmet demand is there for these apartments? Apartment developers don't seem to have met the demand yet. Oh, and also of note in the aerial image above, it seems Dupont Community Credit Union put some solar panels on the roof of their new bank. Nice!  | |
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179 Building Lots For Sale in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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 Where will you build your new home? There are 179 building lots for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham priced under $200K. The list below shows the subdivision / location of the lots. If you're interested in further details about any of these lots or locations, let me know! As an aside -- how does 179 strike you? It was more building lots that I thought I'd find when a client asked about this. Of note -- these are lots where "public water" and "public sewer" are available -- there are countless other lots where you would need to drill a well and install a septic system.  | |
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Only Four New Homes Remain at The Glen at Cross Keys |
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 Construction is moving along steadily at The Glen at Cross Keys -- with 74 out of 78 homes now sold or under contract. Most of the recent builds have been the Sycamore and Paired Sycamore model that feature an open first floor plan with a two story great room. Click on the image below to view a photo set from a recent Sycamore home at The Glen at Cross Keys.  Click here to view available homes at The Glen at Cross Keys. | |
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Are You Thinking About Purchasing A Modular Home? |
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 According to Wikipedia, a stick-built structure is "one constructed entirely or largely on-site," as opposed to a modular home that is "divided into multiple modules or sections which are manufactured in a remote facility and then delivered to their intended site of use." My experience in chatting with buyers over the past 15 years has been that there are mixed opinions on modular homes. For example, some would suggest that . . .
Overall, my experience indicates that modular homes sell at slightly lower prices as compared to stick built homes -- and some of that is solely as a result of some buyers being hesitant to purchase a modular home. | |
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220 Detached Homes, 175 Duplexes, 225 Townhouses To Be Built in County? |
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 Two rezoning proposals are going before the Rockingham County Planning Commission this week.... 54 Acres on Island Ford Road in McGahesyville (shown above)
Update after Planning Commission meeting.... Island Ford Road rezoning recommended by Planning Commission "In other business, the commission unanimously recommended approval of Gary Sandridge's request to rezone 54 acres on Island Ford Road in McGaheysville from agricultural use to planned single family. Sandridge plans to build 220 units that would connect to the existing Whispering Springs subdivision, which is at the intersection of Island Ford Road and McGaheysville Road." Pear Street rezoning tabled by Planning Commission "Commissioners Brent Trumbo, Rodney Burkholder and Keith Sheets voted to table the request. Commissioner Bill Loomis, who raised concerns over the density of the project and its compatibility with planned development in the city, abstained from voting. Commissioner David Rees was absent." Read more here.... County Planning Commission Tables Housing Request | |
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What homes are NOT being built? |
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 The graph above is not based on any actual data -- it's based on my experience of our local market, and conversations with a variety of buyers over the past few years. It seems that most of what has been built as new housing stock in this area over the past 15 years has either been townhouses -- or high end homes. This has left quite a gap in the middle of the market, where there is a LOT of buyer demand, but where there is NOT a lot of new housing stock to help meet this demand. How and when will this change? What will these buyers buy if they can't buy a home in that middle of the market price range? | |
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Only Six Lots Remain at The Glen at Cross Keys |
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 Only six lots remain at The Glen at Cross Keys - located just East of Harrisonburg, these 2100+ SF newly built homes feature an open floor plan with a two story vaulted ceiling in the kitchen, dining area and living room, which lead out to concrete patio. Buyers select from several upscale cabinet options from Classic Kitchen & Bath, granite kitchen counter tops, ceramic tile in the bathrooms, and much more. This Sycamore floor plan features the master suite on the main level, plus an additional room (office? studio? den?), plus two additional bedrooms and a full bathroom on the upper level. Check out more about this community at TheGlenAtCrossKeys.com - before they have all been built and sold! | |
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Hey Builders, Harrisonburg is an Increasingly Popular Place to Live, Keep Up, Please! |
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 OK -- no numbers today. Just a few thoughts that have been coming up in conversation after conversation over the past year. Inventory levels (the number of houses for sale at any given time) have been quite low when looking at the City of Harrisonburg and immediately surrounding areas. Many buyers are having a tough time finding a home to buy. Many houses are selling quickly because there are many buyers who want to buy them when they hit the market. I believe a significant reason why housing inventory levels are so low is because people are deciding they want to live in (or stay in or move to) Harrisonburg faster than builders are building new homes for them to purchase. Sometimes it is young adults who just graduated from JMU, EMU, or Bridgewater College and who want to stay in the area. Sometimes it is a local college grad moving back after having had a taste of life in the big City. Sometimes it is parents of these college grads turned Harrisonburg residents who are moving to Harrisonburg to be close to the grand kids. Whomever it happens to be -- more and more people are deciding they want Harrisonburg (or close to it) to be their home. And I believe they are deciding this at a faster rate than new homes are being built. Side note -- lots of rental housing is being built right now. This sort of helps -- people can rent if they can't find something to buy -- but it is not a viable long-term solution. So -- builders -- let's get to building some new homes, why don't we? It is time -- the home buying population is growing, and needing housing.... | |
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Buying vs Building A $400K+ Home |
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 Most buyers looking to spend over $400K (or certainly those looking over $500K) will also be considering building a new home. Typically, the tension between buying vs building is one of: 1. Goals 2. Money 3. Timing If you build, you can get the house you want, but you'll pay more for it and it will take a lot of time and attention. 1. Goals = Win 2. Money = Lose 3. Timing = Lose If you buy an existing home, you won't get exactly what you want, but you will pay less for the house and the process will not be a drain on your time. 1. Goals = Lose 2. Money = Win 3. Timing = Win Don't let my oversimplification of this issue fool you -- this is something that buyers can get stuck debating for months, or even years, often while looking at resale homes to try to convince themselves to buy instead building. If you are stuck in this quagmire, I'd be happy to meet with you to talk through some of the pros and cons and try to help you come to a decision you'll be pleased with in the short and long term. | |
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Rising Lumber Costs May Drive New Home Prices Higher |
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 Wood is just one component of a new home -- but it is a rather central component, and increases in the price of lumber can and will eventually impact the prices of new homes in our local market. Just how much have lumber prices increased? Try more than 50% over the past 14 months! The chart above shows the increases over the past year from below $350 (per 1000 board feet) a year ago to over $500 today. Why have lumber prices been increasing?
Read more about rising lumber prices at the Wall Street Journal.... With Lumber in Short Supply, Record Wood Costs Are Set to Juice Home Prices Only time will tell how much these increases in lumber costs will affect new home pricing in this area. Stay tuned! | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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