• 1750 SF, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
• 1950 SF, 3 bedrooms, bonus room, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
• 2150 SF, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, two-car garage

These types of homes have not been built in large quantity over the past ten years, and I believe there are plenty of buyers who would love to buy this type/size of home.

---

As Jim, Jerry and Keith pointed out, It is expensive (!!!) to create a developed lot.  The cost of building roads, installing water an sewer lines, utility hook up fees, etc. all add up to make the costs quite high even before construction (pouring the foundation, framing the home) begins.

And as Nate points out -- if the land cannot be purchased by a builder at an affordable price, the rest of the equation downstream won't work out.  High costs for land, plus development costs, plus building costs, will result in unrealistically high prices for homes, that then won't be affordable (or desirable at that price point) to buyers.

Nate then ponders whether larger, regional builders can do better than local builders in this regard based on economies of scale.  I'm not sure if the savings would be in buying a larger tract of land, lower development (infrastructure costs), or lower building costs -- but I wonder the same.

Gary and Renee also point out that some of these "costs before you even start building" are high because of utility connection fees, requirements for stormwater management, proffers, etc., that are coming from government regulations and development requirements.

Ginny points out that the final cost of a house is largely dependent on the initial land and development costs.  Thus, to have smaller single family homes built, we may need to see smaller lots, to keep those initial costs down.

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DEMAND NEEDS TO DISCUSSED WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF PRICE

As Jim succinctly puts it, "If I want something I can't afford then it isn't really demand."  An excellent point -- which means that we need to think about (and talk about) the demand for the homes I outlined above (for example) within the context of the price for bringing such a home to market.

If the houses I described (1750 / 1950 / 2150 square feet) were able to be sold for $150K, $175K and $200K (obviously not realistic) then clearly, there would be a ridiculously high demand for them.

I believe that if the houses I described could be sold for $250K, $275K and $300K there would still be a strong demand for them. 

But, clearly, if the homes could not be sold for any less than (I'm exaggerating again) $400K, $425K and $450K then likely NOBODY would want want to buy them.

So, yes, when we talk about demand for a particular type of housing, it likely should be -- as best as possible -- set within a context of price.  That price-based demand can then be compared to development and building costs to see if developer and builders can bring such a product to market at a price that it will sell.

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WHAT SHOULD WE BE ADDING TO OUR HOUSING STOCK?

As Jim also points out, the high demand and low supply environment we're in right now COULD cause a large quantity of under-qualified builders to start building homes.  This doesn't help, in the long-term, as it is adding lower quality homes to our housing stock, which I do not believe helps our community in the long-term.

Jim goes on to suggest that we should be ensuring that we are adding quality homes to our housing stock.  I agree -- though I do think that we need to find a balance.  If the quality of materials and finishes is too high, we're pricing ourselves out of the ability to meet the demand we're discussing.

Michael takes us in a different direction when considering what should be built.  He points out that even beyond building for all of those townhouse buyers (the original reason for my suggestion that we need to build mid sized detached homes) that he believes there is also a significant demand for affordable housing for the elderly in our community.  He points out that retirement communities are not affordable for everyone, and plenty of older adults in our community would love to move into an affordable, (one-level), wheelchair accessible home.  Again -- another market segment where we are not seeing much new construction.

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WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO IF WE DON'T BUILD THESE HOMES?

Ginny suggests that homeownership may be delayed for some families.  A good point -- if the homes they want aren't available at the prices they can afford, perhaps they'll keep renting or keep living in the townhome they purchased.

Ginny also suggests that we'll see more remodeling or upgrading of current homes to accommodate growing families, which also makes sense.

Keith suggests that people will just have to move to some of the more affordable towns surrounding Harrisonburg.  There are more affordable detached housing options when you look to Broadway, Timberville, Elkton and Grottoes.  So, perhaps the townhome owners will just have to settle for a bit of a commute in order to buy a mid sized detached home that fits their budget.

Jim suggests that maybe higher costs for new homes means that it will take much longer for families to be able to buy a home -- and perhaps they will have to stay in one home for a lifetime, instead of moving every 5 - 7 years.

Gary concludes that many in our community may simply have to rent, or keep living in a townhouse, because of the cost of building new homes.

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CONCLUSIONS

There were many other great points made, and discussions beginning, so thanks to all who engaged in this topic.  A few big picture thoughts that come to mind for me....

• There would seem to be many buyers who would be interested in mid sized single family homes.
   
• Mid sized single family homes are not (in any significant number) being built.
   
• Because of land, development and building costs, It may not be possible to build mid sized single family homes at prices that would appeal to the buyers who want the homes.
   
• Our market presents a unique opportunity to a land owner / developer / builder (be that one, two or three different people) who can figure out to bring this type of product to market at a price that will work for the buyers who want the homes.
  

Keep the conversations going, folks, on Facebook, with me, with each other.  As Jim points out, "we're going to have to do housing differently than it has been built in the past 30 years if we are going to provide sustainable, affordable housing."

• Avalon Woods = 141 townhouses (circa 2001-2005)
• Beacon Hill = 253 townhouses (circa 2000 - 2012)
• Liberty Square = 220 townhouses (circa 2005 - 2012)

Some of these townhomes were purchased by investors.  Some were purchased by folks who have since sold and left the area.  Some were purchased by folks who have since sold and bought a new, larger home, in or near Harrisonburg

But I believe a lot of the original (or second) owners of these 614 townhouses are now looking around Harrisonburg wondering where they will, where they can go next.

I believe our market desperately needs mid sized detached homes to be built, as these many townhouse owners are now older, often have started a family, and are looking for more space -- but can't jump up to buying a $350K to $400K home.

What might these mid sized detached homes look like?  Perhaps....

• 1750 SF, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
   
  
• 1950 SF, 3 bedrooms, bonus room, 2.5 bathrooms, one-car garage
   
• 2150 SF, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, two-car garage

So -- who is going to build them?  And where can the be built?  In many conversations I have had lately, one of the main challenges is finding land that can be purchased at a price that will allow for the development and construction of this type of housing without making them $350K homes.

• Three at Heritage Estates, a 55+ active adult community
   
• Two at Chicago Park, a new development near EMU.
   
• Two in Skyview Estates, a new development near Mr. J's on 42 South.
   
  
• One in Stone Spring Manor (near the RMH Wellness Center)
   
  
• One on Smith Avenue (near EMU)

• stick-built homes are more structurally sound, as they are built on the piece of land where they will permanently reside --- and fit themselves, structurally, to the contour of the land as they are built
   
  
• modular homes are more structurally sound, as they are built in a controlled environment, without being exposed to precipitation, wind, etc. during the construction process
   
  
• modular homes allow for a faster construction schedule
   
  
• stick-built homes allow for greater design flexibility
  

• stick-built homes are more structurally sound, as they are built on the piece of land where they will permanently reside --- and fit themselves, structurally, to the contour of the land as they are built
   
  
• modular homes are more structurally sound, as they are built in a controlled environment, without being exposed to precipitation, wind, etc. during the construction process
   
  
• modular homes allow for a faster construction schedule
   
  
• stick-built homes allow for greater design flexibility
  

• Stoneport - a mixed use development featuring Bojangles, Wendy's and Wal-Mart
   
  
• a proposed 37 acre student housing community on Reservoir Street
   
• The proposed rezoning of 238 acres by Sentara RMH per their new proposed master plan.
   
• An affordable housing complex being developed off Reservoir Street across from Fieldale Place.

After the workshop (11:30 AM) the Board of Supervisors will hold their regular meeting at 3:00 PM today.

From today's Daily News Record article....

County Administrator Joe Paxton said supervisors are concerned because the growth of JMU and the need for housing are uncertain.

Supervisors want to decide what type of development should go in the area to best spur growth, Paxton said.

"The type of housing that you allow to develop in that area will drive the type of commercial that you get," Paxton said. "So, there needs to be some intentional thought ... in deciding what type of residential development will go in that area."

Deputy County Administrator Stephen King said the workshop will "give an overall look of what is there, what we know is coming, what we've been told is coming," and allow the board to start developing a plan for the area.

Certain types of housing can attract certain people to an area, Paxton said, and the demographics will determine which businesses want to move to the area.

"The income levels are critical to attract different types of commercial development," Paxton said. "If you don't have some kind of plan, then you will just get what happens."