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Harrisonburg housing market shows continued signs of improvement in March 2012 |
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Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales were at a four year high during March 2012, and for the entire first quarter of 2012. Click here to jump to the PDF of the full market report, or keep reading.  March continued the trend of positive indicators in our local housing market:
 March 2012 was a fantastic month for home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, with 66 home sales closing -- the highest we have seen in the past four years. This sets the year up with a strong base as we move into the remainder of the spring and then summer market.  The pace of home sales certainly varies based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. You'll note that the sale of homes for less than $200,000 increased through June 2010 and then declined for the next 12 months. This phenomenon is almost positively a result of the federal home buyer tax credit that encouraged these sales during 2009 and 2010. Of note, however, this segment of the market (under $200,000) has shown steady increases since June 2011, as has the $200,000 to $300,000 market.  Home buyers continue to find amazingly low interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages, with the current average rate of 3.99% continuing the five-month streak of staying below 4.0%.  There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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The perils of waiting to tell you that mortgage interest rates are headed back up |
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 If I had been a bit more timely, and had broken this news about a week ago, I might have told you that THE SKY IS FALLING, LOCK IN AN INTEREST RATE NOW. Indeed, mortgage interest rates made a considerably two week jump from 3.88% to 4.08%. Many predicted that the end of low mortgage interest rates was nigh.  As is typical, one data point can distort one's perception of reality. So, let's take just one more data point and reassure ourselves about our previous perception of reality. :) As you'll see above, the jump to 4.08% may have been an anomaly, as average interest rates fell back below 4% the following week. The big picture is something we've known for a WHILE now -- these ridiculously low mortgage interest rates won't last forever -- though it could be quite a while before they may any meaningful increases (over 4.5% or 5.0%, for example). | |
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New gated luxury community for JMU students on Port Republic Road? |
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 Aspen Heights LLC, is attempting to rezone a 23-acre parcel of land on Port Republic Road (shown above) for a gated, luxury community for students. The city has some doubts, per the Daily News Record article, which seem to include the current glut of student housing in Harrisonburg, as well as the surrounding largely owner occupied neighborhoods.  Some of the student housing developments that Aspen Heights, LLC has built (yes, the photo above is a student housing development) seem quite nice. View photos of their communities, their current locations, and what they believe sets them apart as a student housing community. This Tuesday there will be a Planning Commission meeting to discuss this potential rezoning. In other related student housing news, you'll notice some new student housing popping up on Stone Spring Road near the RMH Wellness Center. | |
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If you're looking to buy, build, or improve a home, stop by the JMU Convocation Center this weekend! |
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 Home & Garden Show booth for The Gaines Group As home values softened (declined) over the past six years, an increasing number of homeowners who would have considered selling their home and buying a new one found themselves improving their existing home instead. If you aren't going to be selling your home in the near future, you might do well to consider making some improvements to it that will make it a more comfortable / exciting / convenient place to live. And if you are considering some improvements to your home (inside or out) over the next year (or if you might buy or build a home) you DEFINITELY want to stop by this weekend's Home & Garden Show. This gives you the opportunity (in a condensed time period) to meet firsthand the contractors, suppliers and professionals that you may decide to hire in the coming year. Beyond why you might decide to come, here are the pertinent details once you have made the decision to attend.... Show Hours Friday 4 PM - 8 PM Saturday 10 AM - 8 PM Sunday 12 PM - 5 PM Admission = $5/person (children under 12 are free) Home Show Web Site: HomeShow2012.com | |
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Rockingham County considers 7% increase to real estate tax rate |
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As per the Daily News Record today, the Finance Committee for Rockingham County has proposed an increase of the real estate tax rate --- from $0.60 per $100 of assessed value up to $0.64 per $100 of assessed value. Here's how that would impact a few different price ranges of homes....  In many ways, it is actually surprising that we haven't seen an increase in tax rates before now --- many localities across the country have been forced to do so in order to continue to pay for public services. Click here for the full article from the Daily News Record. | |
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Luxury Gated Apartment Community in Harrisonburg? |
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 As per the Daily News Record this morning, Harrisonburg may soon (2014) have its first gated community featuring luxury apartments. Most of these apartments (~70%) would be one bedroom apartments and would be geared towards "transient professionals" per the developer, Dain Hammond. The 200+ unit development on six acres at the corner of Port Republic Road and Stone Spring Road would feature a triangular, 4-story building with a large courtyard and pool in the center of the building. "Hammond envisions the development appealing to renters seeking upscale short-term housing. That would include RMH doctors who may perform surgeries at the hospital a few times a week and need a nearby "crash pad," or a visiting professor at James Madison University for a year, he explained. "It's more for the transient' professional," Hammond said. "That's our target demographic." Read the full Daily News Record article here. | |
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Is CarMax coming to Harrisonburg, VA? $2.9M says yes. |
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 As more (potential) good news for our growing local job market, it looks like CarMax may be opening in Harrisonburg sometime in the near future. From the record of Harrisonburg Property Transfers last week..... South Main Ford LLC to CarMax Auto Superstores Inc. a parcel of land on the northwestern side of South Main Street, south of West Mosby Road, $2,900,000. This follows the recent news of Dick's Sporting Goods coming to Harrisonburg. As a point of clarification, the title of this article is not an indication that I am willing to bet $2.9M that CarMax is coming to Harrisonburg. ;) | |
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Virginia home sales surge ahead (+9%) in February 2012 |
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In another sign of potential stabilization of the housing market in Virginia, home sales rose 8.6% in February 2012 as compared to one year prior. This strong increase is after a 2.7% year-over-year increase in January 2012. Virginia's unemployment rate of 5.8% in January is the lowest level seen since December 2008 and provides a strong climate for growth in the housing market. Download the full February 2012 Virginia Home Sales Report below which also highlights:
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This Saturday: Harrisonburg's Green Innovations Tour |
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 THIS SATURDAY, enjoy a behind-the-scenes tour of over 15 sites featuring downtown's energy efficient buildings, ongoing historic preservation, local food, and open green spaces. Demonstrations and presentations at select locations. Guided Tours will start at 1:30PM and 3:30PM, starting at the Turner Pavilion (Harrisonburg Farmers Market) and led by the Shenandoah Valley Builders Associations' Green Building Committee. The self-guided tours include:
And, there will even be children's activities at the Turner Pavilion and at select venues downtown! Click on the image below for the tour brochure with a map.  Click here for an article about the tour from the Staunton News Leader. | |
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Is an improving housing market good news for everyone? |
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 photo source: erix The local housing market is improving (sales up, prices up) but as someone pointed out to me earlier this week, that's not necessarily good news for everyone. But I do think it's good news for just about everyone. Certainly, it's good news for sellers -- they're now more likely to be able to sell, and don't have to worry (as much) about their home losing even more value before they sell. Certainly, it's good news for homeowners -- the value of their home now seems to be stabilizing. It's mixed news for near-term buyers -- it might mean that there are fewer deals to be had in the coming months, but since they're buying soon they can console themselves with the realization that their newly purchased property is not likely to continue to decline in value after their purchase. It is bad news for far-future buyers -- if you're not buying for a few years, it is understandable (sort of) that you'd like the market to get worse, so that you would have better buying opportunities. So, what about you? Are you glad the housing market is improving? | |
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Home sales and median prices on the rise in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County |
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Good news! With two months of 2012 under our belts, our local housing market is showing signs of continued stability and growth. Click here to jump to the PDF of the full market report, or keep reading.  As shown above, the pace of YTD home sales has increased 8% from 78 home sales (Jan-Feb 2011) to 84 home sales (Jan-Feb 2012). Furthermore, the YTD median sales price has increased 3%, and the average sales price has increased by 4%. After quite a few years of seeing declines in median and average sales prices, this is a welcome change!. The time it takes to sell a home, however, is still on the rise --- showing a 27% YTD increase.  February 2012 was another strong month of buyer activity, with 80 buyers signing contracts to buy homes. This marks a significant 16% increase over last February -- and even comes close to the summer months of 2011.  Remarkably, even now through the beginning of March, there are fewer and fewer homes for buyers to select from in our local market. Inventory levels have dropped 18% over the past year --- from 807 homes down to 665 homes. Typically we start to see an increase at this time of year, but I welcome these lower inventory levels, as it can help our market to continue to stabilize.  After many years of a declining pace of home sales, we have now seen a reversal in this trend over the past eight months as the annualized pace of sales has increased from 706 sales/year to 800 sales/year. This is welcome news, and likely contributes to the relative stability in annualized median sales prices that we have seen over the past four months.  There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Developers continue campaign to end homelessness amongst local college students |
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 OK, so perhaps homelessness amongst local college students is an imaginary problem --- but if it were an issue, local student housing developers are certainly being VERY proactive in making sure there will be plenty of housing for college students for a LONG time into the future. Per the Daily News Record yesterday, the student housing project on Stone Spring Road is now underway again after having stalled for several years. When it stalled, I had hoped that the developers (both local and out of state) had seen the light and realized that the local student housing market was oversaturated. But alas, these facts don't seem to be influencing their decisions. From the DNR article.... Harman (the local developer) said he's not concerned about the potential surplus of student beds. "We're just building our project," he said. "I'm not paying attention to what everybody else is doing." As a side note, that does seem to be a winning strategy, as many or most of the newer complexes have not had any issues in becoming fully leased. So, why am I a bit less than neutral on this news? Well, the student housing market is a bit out of kilter (supply exceeds demand) and this new development will tip it even further out of balance. An out of balance market tends to be an unhealthy market, and in this case it can negatively affect individual property owners (in student complexes) much more than it will ultimately affect larger corporate owners of student housing. For further reading.....
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Mortgage interest rates are on the rise....they are now at a sky high 3.95% |
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Don't get too worried, interest rates are still incredibly low, and still below 4%. But after four weeks at record lows, the average 30-year mortgage interest rate increased from 3.87% to 3.95% "The rise in rates is a vote of confidence for the housing market, which continues to show signs of gradual improvement, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist." Other factors affecting more optimism in the housing market:
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Dick's Sporting Goods coming to Harrisonburg, VA? |
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 (photo above is a store opening in Nashville, not Harrisonburg; source) In further (potential) good news for the local economic climate, the Daily News Record reports today that Dick's Sporting Goods may be opening up a storefront at the Valley Mall in Harrisonburg as soon as this fall. Dick's would (potentially) be located in the space that Peebles vacated in 2006. This follows recent news of an Ashley Furniture store opening in the old Books-A-Million space on East Market Street. Additional tidbits on this developing story:
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Local housing market stable in January 2012 |
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Our local housing market remained relatively stable in January 2012, showing some indicators that we will continue the new trend we saw in 2011. To remind you..... In 2011, after a five year slide (and a 55% drop) in the pace of home sales, our local real estate market showed a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales last year, even though the median sales price declined another 3%. Jump to the PDF of my monthly market report, or keep reading for an overview.  Important trends to note:
Inventory levels continue to decline (as shown above) with a 14% decline over the past year, and an overall 17% over the past two years.
Perhaps one month of data is too small of a data set to draw some conclusions --- otherwise we'd think our market has REALLY recovered, as the median sales price increased 11% when comparing 2011 to January 2012. For a more detailed look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, download my full market report as a PDF. | |
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Average mortgage interest rates (3.87%) break historic low levels, again |
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 Not only have 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates been at or below 4% since November 3rd, they also hit an all-time low this past week at 3.87%. Buying a median priced home a year ago: Price: $180,000 Interest Rate: 4.81% Monthly Payment: $884 (assuming 80% LTV) Buying a median priced home now: Price: $174,900 Interest Rate: 3.87% Monthly Payment: $781 (assuming 80% LTV) | |
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U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls Again, to 8.3% |
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 This is one economic indicator that I am happy to see heading downward. There are still lots of people who are not able to find work, but this trend is headed in a great direction. | |
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HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, your comprehensive source for information on townhouse communities in and around Harrisonburg, Virginia |
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 Exciting news... today I launched HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, your comprehensive source for information on townhouse communities in and around Harrisonburg, Virginia, including, for each community .
Here are a few of the other web sites that I have created that might be of interest to you .
If you are considering buying or selling a property in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, please contact me (Scott Rogers) at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com, as I would be delighted to have the opportunity to work with you in your purchase or sale. | |
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2011 Summary: Stability is returning to the Harrisonburg, Rockingham County housing market |
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Friends and Colleagues --- Our local housing market has finally done it -- after a five year slide (and a 55% drop) in the pace of home sales, the tide has finally turned in 2011. Our local real estate market showed a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales last year, even though the median sales price declined another 3%. Jump to the PDF of my monthly market report, or keep reading for an overview. Speeding through the finish line....  The local housing market didn't slow down for the close of 2011 -- it poured on the gas to accelerate through the finish line with a strong month of 79 home sales in December. This was the strongest December in at least four years. October and November could have had us worried, with sales in the 50's, but apparently the market was holding back to create an exciting photo finish in December. The Great Reversal....  After five years of seeing fewer and fewer home sales in our local area (from 1669 in 2005 down to 758 in 2010) we finally experienced an increase in buyer activity during 2011 -- with 791 home sales. This marks a 4% improvement in the pace of home sales. The not-quite-as-exciting news, of course, is that the median sales price declined another 2.83% over the past year. But certainly, we needed to see this stability (and now growth) in sales pace before we could reasonably expect to see stability in sales prices. Hello Buyers, Good Bye Sellers....  For the past few years, there have been too many sellers in the market, and too few buyers. 2011, however, has told a different story -- one of returning stability. Not only did home sales increase 4% in 2011, but inventory levels declined 15%. While we still have a ways to go, both of these trends are headed in the direction of increased stability in our local real estate market. We Won't Miss You Mr. Foreclosure....  Foreclosures (and then bank owned homes) have dragged housing markets down across the country. Thankfully, not only did home sales increase this year in our local market (blue bars above), but foreclosures also declined (red bars above). This 17% decline in foreclosures during 2011 shows promise for fewer bank owned homes, and greater market stability in 2012. What else would help? Lower interest rates? Lower unemployment rates?  The stage is set for further stability in our local housing market during 2012 -- mortgage interest rates are at historic lows (below 4%) and our local unemployment rate is at its lowest level in over two years. Looking Forward After a 2005 peak, and a 2010 valley, 2011 brought a long awaited step towards stability in our local housing market as sales began to increase again. The pace of home sales is likely to increase even further in 2012, and we just might start to see some stability in median prices --- if not in 2012, then I would imagine we would certainly see that in 2013. For a more detailed look at the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, download my full market report as a PDF. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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