News
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Mortgage Interest Rates Drop Yet Again |
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 Yet another ALL TIME HISTORIC LOW. How low can they go? How about 3%? Can we get there?? | |
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Six months into 2012, local housing market shows signs of steady improvement |
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BREAKING NEWS -- six months into 2012, home sales are up, prices are up, inventory is down, and mortgage interest rates are down! All of this spells good news for the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market! Click here to download a PDF of the July 2012 report on the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market, or read on for some highlights.  There were many signs of improvement in the local housing market this month, shown above:
In not quite as rosy news:
One reason for the improvement in the local housing market is that we continue to see declines in the number of homes on the market --- fewer sellers results in a more balanced market. Not only have inventory levels dropped 17% over the past year, but they have also declined 4% in the past month --- which is not a typical trend for this time of year.
Not only are there fewer sellers in the market, there are also many more buyers in the market. The annualized pace of home sales (shown above) measures the number of sales in twelve month periods to reduce the impact of month-to-month fluctuations. As shown above, buyers are currently buying homes at an annualized pace of 813 sales/year -- up 15% from one year ago.
 For much more insight and analysis, click on the image above to download the full 27-page market report specifically focused on Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. And -- if you have questions about the local housing market, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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30 acres of development land for sale on Boyers Road |
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 Click the image above to see a larger version. There is a 30 acre parcel on Boyers Road currently for sale amidst quite a few popular subdivisions, and across the street from the new Rockingham Memorial Hospital. It will be interesting to see what may be developed in this area, and when it will happen. The black lines shown on the map are my estimation of property lines, and are by no means precise. This property is listed by Jim Sipe, Jr. of Coldwell Banker Commercial Funkhouser Realtors. | |
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The second half of the headline |
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Here is the first half of the headline from today's Daily News Record.... (the only part that was really printed)  Here is what the second half of the headline could have been.....  So yes, it is true that this is "the biggest monthly jump in nearly a year" -- but put in context, it's not as terrible news as some might otherwise suspect. The bottom line here is that month by month analysis of local unemployment rates can cause you to have sudden mood swings. After all, last month we were celebrating a tie for the lowest unemployment levels in over a year.....and this month we're mourning a huge increase in unemployment. | |
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Harrisonburg's Northend Greenway |
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 photo credit: Aaron Johnston Have you heard about Harrisonburg's Northend Greenway? It is an exciting new project that you should know about, and support... A PATH... It will be a 2.5-mile multi-use path connecting people in north Harrisonburg with the places they want to go. From Virginia Mennonite Retirement Community, to Section 8 housing, and a university, a high school, and two community centers, the path will serve several diverse populations, representing 10-20% of Harrisonburg residents. Commuters working or living in downtown and points north will have a scenic, stress-free, and significant segment of their ride off of roadways and along a relatively level route. People needing to buy groceries, attend events downtown, or athletics and plays at Eastern Mennonite University, will have an easy, relaxing way to get where they need to go. Others wanting to travel farther – to James Madison University, Purcell Park, etc. – will be able to easily connect with existing bike and pedestrian infrastructure to continue their journey. For many of the residents along the path's route, this will provide a sustainable and financially viable means of transportation. A PARK... Beyond simply meeting transportation needs, the path will also be a "corridor park," that passes through neighborhoods and undeveloped land along a scenic route that follows Blacks Run and which reveals some of Harrisonburg's better-hidden natural beauty. Along the Northend Greenway, this will create public park space in areas where there currently is little. The path will be 8 to 10 feet wide and entirely paved, with a buffer of green space on either side. At different points along the route, this green space will include native plantings, places to sit and rest or have a picnic, informational signs, and potentially stream and field restoration. The park will only be accessible to non-motorized traffic, and will be well-lit. A PROTOTYPE... Last, and by no means least importantly, the Northend Greenway will be a prototype representing the best in bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure. We see the greenway as the first stage in a larger human-powered transportation network, and one which will set the standard for future development in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. With this in mind, we hope to create a community resource that employs the best practices in bicycle and pedestrian transportation infrastructure and applies them to our context. We hope the Northend Greenway will be a place for families, individuals, and groups to enjoy themselves, and that it will be an accessible means of recreation and transportation for individuals of many ages, ethnicities, income levels, and physical abilities. We want to bring the best of the world to Harrisonburg! For more information....
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If (single family) home prices are about to head back up, then now is the time to... |
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 As mentioned earlier this week, home prices may be ready to head back up. So, if you have been waiting to buy until you were confident about the future of the market --- now may be the OPTIMAL time to buy. This may be the lowest point for prices, with a brighter future ahead. These are likely the lowest interest rates we'll see in the next few years. These are likely the lowest home prices we'll see anytime in the near future. If you're on the fence as to buying, talk to your Realtor today about getting the ball moving forward on a purchase! And if you don't have a Realtor, I, of course, would be more than willing to assist you with your home purchase. Drop me a line at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com or call me at 540-578-0102. | |
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June 2012 Housing Market Update: Sales Up 6%, Prices Up 7% |
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The Harrisonburg and Rockingham County home sales market is roaring through 2012 through, likely due to low mortgage interest rates and low local unemployment levels....  There are very promising sales updates across the board:
 A warm February lead to higher than normal March sales, followed by a slower than normal April, finished off most recently by the best May in three years. In other exciting news....
Click the image below to read the entire June 2012 Market Report....
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Local unemployment levels continue to decline |
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This is one metric that we like to see declining.....  | |
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Perhaps we will be down to 3.5% on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage soon? |
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If this trend continues....  A new record was set yesterday, with an average rate of 3.67% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Wow! | |
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Is the housing market "well" yet? |
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The front page of today's Daily News Record might make you wonder whether our local housing market has taken a turn for the worse.  Do note, however, that today's article is focused on national housing trends, not local trends. The first line of the article tells us the negative trend that was seen nationally.... A gauge of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes fell in April from nearly a two-year high in the previous month. Let's re-write that for our local market.... A gauge of those who signed contracts to buy homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County rose 10% in April to the third highest level in the past two years. Ahhhh...that's better. I was having heartburn at first, worried that our local housing market was not well, and that I might have to take it to see the housing doctor. Alas, our local market is apparently (again) outperforming the overall national housing market (if there is such a thing). Stay calm Harrisonburg and Rockingham County homeowners --- the local housing market still seems to be on the mend. | |
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Oops, sorry, that's already under contract |
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I've been hearing that a lot lately.....  Contracts are on the rise --- and more and more of the competitively priced listings are selling, and selling relatively quickly. In the first 25 days of May there have been 81 contracts --- that is compared to only 60 in the same time period last year! Buckle up, it looks like we might have a strong summer sales market on the way! | |
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Demand grows for new homes |
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 A new foundation (pictured above) is going in at The Glen at Cross Keys as a result of growing local demand for new homes. Photo by Carey Keyes. Along with Carey Keyes and Suzanne Trow, I represent several of the main builders in the Harrisonburg area. In the past 30 days the model home at each of these communities was sold....
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JMU (slightly) boosts first year student count, continuing steady growth trajectory |
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 After several years in a row of relatively similar sized classes of first year students at JMU, the first year headcount will jump up a bit this coming year, as shown above.  Despite this jump in first year students, the overall growth trajectory will stay relatively similar to what JMU has experienced over the past several years. These increases in enrollment will (gradually) help the over-supplied student housing market in Harrisonburg. If you haven't heard, there are many more places for students to live than there are students. (read up here) These increases are also (continued) great news for the local economy, as JMU is a major economic engine for the local economy -- as both students and faculty/staff live here, work here, spend here, etc. This is not, of course, to ignore the significant contributions made to our local economy by Bridgewater College, Eastern Mennonite University and Blue Ridge Community College. The data for the graphs above is based on JMU's enrollment projections. "Total On-Campus Headcount" is the number of students who are taking classes on the JMU campus. | |
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Good news round up |
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Mortgage rates hit all-time low again: 3.83% on 30-year fixed rate. WSJ: Home prices rise in most of United States. NAHB: Harrisonburg added to list of improving markets. Gas prices drop again | |
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Harrisonburg, Rockingham County housing market continues to gradually improve with home sales up 2%, prices up 4% |
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Many aspects of the local housing market have improved over the past year, and there are signs that this gradual recovery will continue.  As shown above, most market indicators are positive when looking back at recent real estate activity in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County:
As another sign of an improving real estate market, inventory levels have dropped 15% over the past year, despite recent seasonal increases.
Long term trends shown above (rolling 12 month calculations for sales pace and price) also indicate that the local housing market is stabilizing (price) and starting to grow (pace).
Also, despite prior warnings of potential increases, mortgage interest rates remain extraordinarily low.
There is plenty more to read, analyze and understand. Click here (or on the market report cover above) to download my full monthly market report. | |
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Verizon Wireless 4G (LTE) is now in Harrisonburg, VA and it is FAST! |
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 18MB down and 12MB up is quite an improvement over 3G speeds. I ran this speed test in Harrisonburg, despite the fact that it is labeled "Washington, DC" on the app. I suppose Harrisonburg is a part of Verizon Wireless' Washington DC network now. You do, of course, need to have a device capable of running on the new 4G (LTE) network. | |
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Home Values compared to Tax Assessments in Rockingham County |
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I'm asked quite frequently about the relationship between home values and tax assessments. After a lengthy analysis of the 528 home sales in Rockingham County during 2011, as recorded in the HRAR MLS, here is what I'm finding.... (click here for the same information for the City of Harrisonburg)  click the infographic above for a printable PDF version. The bottom line here is that County properties seem to be under-assessed by an average of 10%. Most buyers pay more than assessed value for the properties they purchase. | |
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Home Values compared to Tax Assessments in the City of Harrisonburg |
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I'm asked quite frequently about the relationship between home values and tax assessments. After a lengthy analysis of the 266 home sales in the City of Harrisonburg during 2011, as recorded in the HRAR MLS, here is what I'm finding....  click the infographic above for a printable PDF version | |
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City of Harrisonburg real estate tax rate likely increasing 7%, mirroring Rockingham County increase |
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Rockingham County is considering raising the real estate tax rate from $0.60 to $0.64 per $100 of assessed value (details here). The City of Harrisonburg is now considering a similar increase, from $0.59 to $0.63 per $100 of assessed value. The reasons cited for the proposed tax rate changes are increased Virginia Retirement System costs, and decreased property values. There are a few other tax rates that would change, but here is how the real estate tax rate changes would impact homeowners in the City of Harrisonburg....  Of note, the City's real estate tax rate was $0.62 per $100 of assessed value very recently -- it was adjusted down to $0.59 per $100 of assessed value in the 2008 fiscal year. Thus, looking at this over six years (2007-2013) this is only an increase of $0.01 per $100 of assessed value -- thus an effective 1.6% increase in the tax rate over the past 6 years. Click here for the full article from the Daily News Record. | |
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March 2012 shows a SURGE of buyers in the market! |
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 One factor that is helping our housing market to show continued signs of improvements (in the pace of sales) is that we continue to see strong levels of buyer activity in the form of contracts. Now, bear in mind, not all contracts result in closings -- but without a contract, closings rarely occur. ;) See above -- last month (March 2012) there were 87 contracts --- that is more than some of the summer months last year. We are likely due for a strong remainder of our spring housing market as well as a strong summer market based on the amount of buyers in the market these days. Of note -- even with Spring Break, and Easter, there have already been 28 contracts in the first 9 days of April. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
Licensed in the
Commonwealth of Virginia
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