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Mortgage interest rates drop...again...soon banks will be paying you to take their money! |
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 How low can they go? Mortgage interest rates (on 30-year fixed rate mortgages) dropped again yesterday per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The national average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 4.12%. Wow! If you're planning to buy sometime in the next few months, now would be a GREAT time to lock in a mortgage interest rate! | |
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Exciting times at Heritage Estates |
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 Scripture Communities is breaking ground on yet another new home at Heritage Estates, after having finished a single family home earlier this summer. We're delighted to have Don and Eva joining the community at Heritage Estates, and Brant has been fantastic to work with in his representation of his clients. Heritage Estates is an active adult community located in Harrisonburg, Virginia. Heritage Estates boasts superb French Country architecture with flowing interior floor plans that are wonderful for entertaining. You'll also enjoy spectacular views of the Blue Ridge Mountains, the golf course immediately beside Heritage Estates, the community swimming pool, and a maintenance-free lifestyle. | |
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Did the federal home buyer tax credit impact the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County? |
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 The federal home buyer tax credit did not seem to have a lasting, positive impact on the local housing market. While the federal home buyer tax credit (timeframe shown in green above) did cause the pace of home sales to increase, it was not lasting -- sales declined again after the tax credit expired. We're now roughly a year out from the expiration of the tax credit, so we are now getting close to being able to analyze the local housing market without a backwards reference to the (long) period of time with government intervention as an influencing external variable. It's great, thus, that the real estate market seems to finally be improving as of mid-August. | |
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Great news for buyers! Average 30-year fixed rate mortgages at only 4.15% per Freddie Mac. |
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 The downgrade of the United States' credit rating sure helped mortgage interest rates! Wow! The average rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage is now 4.15%. This is certainly a great time to lock in a rate and buy a house. You will likely be locking in your housing costs to the lowest possible point they could be for the near-term future given both low interest rates and low median home values. | |
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Halfway through August, and the real estate market still seems to be performing well in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County |
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 For the past five years, I've had to answer the question of "so, how's the real estate market" with responses such as "well, not so great" or "well, it could be worse." Now, the answer is a bit different, more along the lines of.... While we're not out of the wood yet, there are many positive indicators in our local housing market that seem to show a modest and slow start to market recovery. As shown above, above:
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So, the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating will definitely lead to an increase in interest rates, right? |
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While rates could still swing back upward, thus far rates have just continued to decline after the downgrade of the United States' credit rating.  Source: Freddie Mac | |
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Just wait until all of these contracts turn into home sales! |
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 It is exciting to see how quickly contracts are coming together on homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County compared to the past several years. At the rate that properties are currently going under contract, 2011 should finish out a (relatively) strong year of home sales -- very likely exceeding 2010 sales. Increased contracts will eventually lead to increased sales will eventually lead to stabilized home values will eventually lead to a more balanced real estate market. Stay tuned! | |
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Home Sales Increase, Prices Increase, Contracts Increase! |
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Finally, some signs of hope for the local housing market! I just completed my monthly analysis of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited. Download the full market report (PDF, 7MB) or read on for some highlights.  As seen above, July 2011 home sales shot past July 2010 by 48% --- which helped the year-to-date sales pace to come within 6% of last year's pace. Furthermore, we did not see a decline in median sales prices when comparing this July and last July....and....the average sales price INCREASED by 5% comparing July to July.  But it gets better --- the next few months should be rather exciting as well, since July 2011 buyer activity (shown above) exceeded both July 2009 and July 2010 contract levels.  Finally, some good news for local home builders, new home sales may finally be stabilizing, with both the pace and price of new homes looking to stay relatively consistent between 2010 and 2011 (as shown above).  One of the reasons (among many) that we are continuing to see improvement in the local housing market is because mortgage interest rates continue to stay below 5%. As shown above, they have started to increase a bit, but are still at an average of 4.6%.  Click on the image above to download my full Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report for further analysis of our local housing market. As always, I have included both the good news and the bad news -- my hope is that my analysis will empower you to make the best real estate decisions possible. If you have questions about the report, or if I can be of assistance to you with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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Virginia home values recovering more quickly than U.S. |
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The Virginia Association of Realtors has released their 2nd Quarter report providing a great overview of the housing market in Virginia, including (amongst lots of other analysis) the following good news....  While median home prices have declined in both Virginia and the United States over the past two years (comparing 2010 to 2008), it seems that home values may be recovering in Virginia more quickly than in the United States as a whole. The United States median sales price stayed relatively level between 2009 and 2010 (less than 1% change) while the median sales price in Virginia increased by 3% during the same time period. Click here to read the press release from VAR, or click the image below to download the PDF of the 2011-Q2 Virginia Quarterly Home Sales Report.  | |
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Way to go Virginia! A $311 million surplus! |
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 Virginia Sets Example for Cash-strapped States "Gov. Bob McDonnell announced that Virginia ended the fiscal year with a $311 million surplus yesterday. And for the second year in a row, Virginia ends the fiscal year with a revenue surplus, not a revenue shortfall. This is great news for Commonwealth residents, and it puts Virginia sharply in contrast with many other states that have seen revenues fall short of projections year after year." This is great news for Virginia and for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. A stable economy leads to job growth, leads to a stable housing market. Read the rest of the story here, where you'll learn how Virginia was able to finish the year with a surplus! | |
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July 2011 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Update |
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I just completed my monthly analysis of the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County real estate market. Click here for a PDF of the 25-page report or read on for some highlights. While the local housing market hasn't fully recovered yet, there is plenty to be excited about from the most recent market data below....  While year to date home sales (364) are a good bit below last year (418), we're on track with a 2009 sales pace. The thing to remember about 2010 is that many home sales were pushed into the first half of the year because of the expiration of the federal home buyer tax credit. Thus, as we continue through 2011, we stand a good chance of catching up with (or surpassing??) the pace of 2010 home sales. Median sales prices are still declining, but if the sales pace stabilizes and starts to increase, it will lead to a stabilization of sales prices and home values.  June 2011 was a FANTASTIC month of contracts -- the second month this year with over 100 contracts signed. This is a strong indicator that we will see strong home sales in July and August.  The graph above explores the number of cumulative month-by-month home sales --- you ought to note that last July, August, September and October were quite slow after the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. I believe we're poised to see some strong performance in the local real estate market over the next three to six months --- and hopefully well beyond that time!  You'll find even more exciting news in my full market report (click here for the PDF) --- and some not so exciting news to keep you well balanced. As always, if you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch. You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. | |
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The Wall Street Journal seems to suggest that the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market may be headed towards a recovery! |
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The Wall Street Journal ran a very insightful article a week ago entitled "How to Tell if Your Housing Market Has Hit Bottom" which points out that there are some communities around the country that are actually doing OK right now in terms of their housing market. The Wall Street Journal (with the help of Zillow) identified 25 communities whose current home values are no more than 10% lower than their home value peaks. Looking at these communities may give us some perspective on how to tell when our own (Harrisonburg/Rockingham) real estate market is ready to start improving. There are three main factors that are identified, and if any or all of these are present in a real estate market, things may be ready to start improving again..... #1 - EMPLOYMENT If employment is stable or on the rise, a real estate market actually has a shot at improving. Many of the improving communities are college towns, as universities provide excellent employment stability for a community. Harrisonburg and Rockingham County continue to see very low unemployment rates -- much lower than the national average, so we're doing pretty well based on factor 1 of 3. #2 - RENTS The ratio between rental rates and home prices is an important indicator of the health of a market. If home prices soar out of control well beyond the comparable cost of renting, then fewer and fewer people will buy, as renting will be more affordable. Many rent vs. buy calculators use a factor of 15 to determine whether a market is balanced. "...if prices are more than 15 times annual rents, then a market favors renters; under 15 times, buyers." As a quick example, a two-story city townhouse might rent for $900/month and sell for $150,000. This shows that our market is (in some sectors) currently favoring buyers instead of rents. Another factor (2 of 3) in our favor. #3 - FORECLOSURES Our community (and any community) needs to see a decline in foreclosure rates before the housing market can really recover. We seem to be poised to see our first decline in the foreclosure rate this year (2011) after several years of increasing rates. This would appear to be factor 3 of 3 in our favor. The article is definitely worth reading in full (here) --- and it is some interesting food for thought that suggests that our local real estate market might see brighter days in the near future. | |
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Contracts soar in June! |
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Buyers are storming the market....look at these year over year numbers for the number of contracts signed by buyers (and sellers) this year compared to last year.....  June 2011's contracts (105) sailed past June 2010 (54) which is a whopping 94% increase!  But it's not just June.....year to date contracts are also showing a 17% increase over last year. This could be an early indicator that we'll see a recovery (in units sold) during 2011. Stay tuned.....I'll have my full report available in the next few days. | |
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Housing Contracts...but is that a verb or a noun? |
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 Today's Daily News Record is correct -- in more ways that one. The housing market has indeed contracted (verb) as home sales and prices have declined in recent months. However, further analysis of the current market reveals that Housing CONTRACTS (noun) are the more exciting part of this storyline. It was Carey Keyes that made the exciting discovery today....last June 54 contracts were written during the entire month. But in the first 14 days of this June, there have already been 51 contracts! If we project out until the end of June, here's how last June and this June would compare....  OK, OK, I realize this is extrapolating from June 1 - 14 data....so for those of you who only want to deal with actual data (not projections), let's look at the total number of contracts written thus far this year (Jan 1 - June 14) as compared to last year during the same time period).....  So, it turns out that there might still be hope for 2011 to be the year that the housing market stabilized in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. | |
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Downtown Harrisonburg has a grocery store! |
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 The Friendly City Food Co-op opened this week, and it is a fantastic addition to Downtown Harrisonburg! Learn a bit more with me via some excerpts from their web site: What can I buy at the Friendly City Food Co-op? The Friendly City features dry grocery, meat, produce, frozen food, dairy, a deli, a grab & go section, coffee and salad bar, and a cafe-style seating area.  I've heard there might be lots of local food at the co-op? Indeed! Friendly City actively seeks out relationships with local farmers and producers to highlight a broad selection of natural, organic, and locally-produced food and products. Why is it so exciting that downtown Harrisonburg now has a grocery store? Over the past 10 (or so) years there have been major efforts to revitalize downtown Harrisonburg, which has lead to LOTS of places to eat, shop and live in downtown Harrisonburg. Despite this well rounded city center, however, the absence of a grocery store has been a limitation for those who wanted to be able to live, shop, eat and work downtown. In fact, when I was marketing Urban Exchange both for sale and for lease (now only for lease), a common question was whether there might ever a grocery store in downtown Harrisonburg. Find out more about the Friendly City Food Co-op via their web site, or via Facebook or Twitter. | |
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Will Harrisonburg See a Double Dip In Home Values? |
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Well, it's hard to say, because we're still in the midst of the first dip....  The blue line above shows the Case-Shiller U.S. National Index Levels, which is a measure of home values across the United States. As you can see, home values declined between 2006 and 2009, but then started to increase again in 2009 and 2010 -- due largely to the federal home buyer tax credit. Alas, home values (nationally) have started to decline again, which many are calling a "double dip" in home values. For better or for worse, Harrisonburg and Rockingham County do not need to worry about a double dip in the near future --- because we're still in the midst of the first dip. As you can see above in the red line, local home values have only gradually decreased between 2008 and today. So, while median home values are still declining in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, there is some good news on other fronts, for example despite April being a seven month low in contracts across the country, it was a twelve month high for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County! Stay tuned for more market analysis as the May data is compiled and analyzed over the next week. | |
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What matters most to you? The national real estate market? Or the local real estate market? |
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Here is the national news from Saturday's Daily News Record....  And here is some local news from three weeks ago....  Quite a difference in the national story and the local story. It's a shame that the top story ran in the Daily News Record, as it likely makes readers in this area assume that our local real estate market is performing terribly. | |
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Mortgage interest rates continue to decline in April 2011 |
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 After interest rates climbed nearly a full percentage point (4.2% to 5.0%) between October 2010 and February 2011, they have started to decline again over the past several months. April 2011 marks the second straight decline down to the current average of 4.8%. Please note that you may be able to obtain an even lower interest rate than the average rates shown above depending on your credit score and other details of your finances and home purchase. Current rates offered via WellsFargo.com include:
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This it it folks, 2011 is (finally) going to be the year the local real estate market starts to improve! |
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With 149 days under our belts, I'm going to go ahead and make the bold prediction.....which is (barely) supported by hard facts and market data......  Above (at the top) you're looking at the number of contracts signed during the first 19 days of May. You can see that May 2011 has been a stronger month of contracts than May 2010. The bottom half of the chart shows that overall 2011 contracts (year to date) also exceed contracts from 2010. This is despite a large number of tax credit buyers who wrote contracts in the first four months of 2010. After five years of declining numbers of buyers in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County market, I am predicting that this (finally) will be the year when we start to see the pace of market activity (number of sales) finally start to increase again. | |
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Founders Way Condos are APPROVED for FHA financing! |
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Buying a condo at Founders Way couldn't be any easier!  As of this week, Founders Way Condos are approved for FHA financing. These spacious condos have wonderfully open floor plans with 2 or 3 bedrooms, and start at only $149K. Buyers at Founders Way are often attracted to:
Find out more about Founders Way:
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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