March 2011 home sales show plenty of positive indicators, though the local market is still a ways off from a full recovery.



After mediocre performance in January and February, the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market finally witnessed some growth in March 2011.  March's 61 home sales exceeded March 2010 (49 sales) and March 2009 (57 sales), and contributed to an overall decline in home sales of only 6% between 2010 (YTD) and 2011 (YTD).



Not only did buyers close on properties in March, they also contracted on properties --- though probably not the same buyers.  March 2011 showed another strong month of contracts (75), exceeding March 2009 figures (68).  Last March's contract figures (95) were significantly affected by the home buyer tax credit.



Despite increases in inventory over the past two months, it appears that 2010's peak of over 1,000 properties for sale will not be met this year.  We have seen an overall decline of 13.5% over the past year in the number of residential properties for sale, which can help restore balance to the market.



Despite the strong indicators noted above, we do see that the median sales price of single family homes has started to decline again more sharply after a relatively steady year last year.  We may not be totally out of the woods yet.



There's plenty more news in my monthly housing market report -- click on the image above (or here) to download and view the full PDF. 

As always, if you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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Fortune Magazine makes some bold predictions after LOTS of detailed analysis....



Click on the image above (or here) for a PDF of the entire article, which deserves a careful read. 

To entice you to read the entire article, consider the following excerpts....

• "The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses. And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin' to rise, not fall."
   
  
• "The lack of new home building is a huge help that a lot of people are ignoring," says Case. "People think I'm crazy to be optimistic, but housing is looking like the little engine that could."
    
  
• Zandi of Moody's Analytics expects that prices will rise three to four points faster than inflation for the next few years in virtually all of the nondistressed markets. His view is that prices will increase in line with rents, which are now growing briskly because apartments are in short supply. Those higher rents will encourage buyers to cross the street from an apartment to a home of their own.

Click here to read the entire article
  

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Three times in the past three weeks I have been in real estate related meetings when someone asked "So, how much do you have to put down on a mortgage these days, twenty percent?"  Each time my jaw dropped, and I explained that the down payment on a purchase can be as little as 3.5%....and sometimes as little as no down payment at all.  Their jaws then dropped, as they asked questions along the lines of "but, I thought it was nearly impossible to get a mortgage these days" and "but, what about reforming the mortgage market after all the crazy loans that were issued?"  These are reasonable questions and objections, which I then discussed with them, but what I hoped stuck with them is that you don't need to wait to buy until you have 20% of the purchase price as a down payment.

At this point it is important to note that having 20% as a down payment is not at all a bad idea –it is certainly something to be strived for – but it shouldn't necessarily limit your purchasing decision.  If home prices declined over the next few years, a larger down payment (for example, 20%) would help you to avoid getting stuck in a house with a mortgage you could not pay off in order to sell.  A 20% down payment can also lower your mortgage payment, as you will be financing a smaller amount, and you should not have to pay mortgage insurance in addition to the principal, interest, taxes and insurance.  Despite these benefits, however, waiting to purchase until you have a 20% down payment can significantly change when you are able to buy a house, particularly if you are a first time buyer.
 
Are there really loan programs that only require a 3.5% down payment?  The most frequently utilized loan program these days is the FHA loan program, which is underwritten by the federal government and only requires a 3.5% down payment.  The federal guarantee of the loan allows lenders to offer you lower interest rates, which makes the monthly payment more affordable to you.  Many (or most) first time buyers utilize the FHA loan program, however it can be used for mortgages up to $277,150 in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County.  

Isn't it difficult to get a mortgage these days?  A few years ago, it was said that if you had a pulse, you could get a mortgage.  Indeed, there were mortgage programs where your lender did not need to verify your income, nor your assets, nor your employment, etc.  It is certainly more difficult to get a loan now if that is our basis of comparison, however new mortgage guidelines are not absurdly strict.  Most people with reasonably good credit and with steady, predictable income can obtain a mortgage with reasonable terms.  One of my clients recently asked me whether a significant portion of contracts fall through these days as a result of buyer not being able to obtain financing – thankfully, this is not seen too often in our area.  If you are wondering whether you can obtain a mortgage, talk to a bank or mortgage company to quickly and easily be pre-qualified.  If you're not sure who to talk to, start by speaking with a Realtor, who can certainly give you some recommendations on reliable, professional lenders in the area.

What about mortgage reform?  It is true – there were some wild and crazy things happening in the mortgage market over the past several years, and new guidelines are now in place (and being put in place) to attempt to ensure that we will not travel down those roads again.  Despite these new guidelines, however, it is still possible for hopeful buyers with a reasonable amount of income to obtain a mortgage without too much of a hassle, without too much cost, and with very favorable terms.

What is next in the mortgage market?  Interest rates are still phenomenally low compared to the past several decades, so opportunities abound to buy and obtain a fantastically low fixed interest rate on your mortgage.  Many people predict that interest rates will rise as we continue through 2011, though many people have predicted that for the past several years without any great supporting evidence after the fact.  It is important to note, however, that changes to the mortgage market may be coming down from the administration.  Current plans are in the works to re-vamp how the mortgage market works, which some argue will increase mortgage costs to consumers.  

Each of the three people who presumed that a 20% down payment was required these days is a very smart person – but each of them had an incorrect assumption about the current state of the mortgage market.  If you are considering buying, or refinancing, don't make a decision based on your assumptions, or based on what your neighbor or friend tells you.  Talk to a mortgage professional who can accurately explain your options and help you find the best path for your future.
  

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Did you know Facebook is now estimated by some to be valued at $65,000,000,000?  Yes, that's $65 BILLION dollars.  How do analysts come to that number?  The valuation is based on the percentage stake that is given to a new investor as compared to the dollar value of the investment that they make in the company.  Just two months ago, a Goldman Sachs investment in Facebook put the value at $50 BILLION.

How does this relate to real estate in Harrisonburg, VA?  An investor just bought a significant stake in the student housing market in Harrisonburg, which provides another data point upon which other student housing owners can value their investment.

The big news --- 38 North has been sold for $32.8 million.

The specs of this recently built (2008) student housing complex include:

• 228 units (816 beds) built on 19 acres
• (96) 3-bedroom units
• (132) 4-bedroom units
  
• 94.6% occupied at the time of the sale
• sold for $143,640 per unit ($40,135 per bed)
  
• Amenities including a swimming pool, fitness room, tanning beds, spa, game room with billiards, computer lounge, basketball courts, barbecue grills, and a clubroom

With a 95% occupancy rate, it largely does not matter to 38 North, but I do wonder whether the buyers realize that there is a huge excess of student housing in Harrisonburg.

• Do Harrisonburg and JMU Need More Student Housing?
• Do You Think Harrisonburg's Student Housing Vacancy Rates Are High Now? You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!
• Everything Will Sell, At A Price (Hunters Ridge pricing)
• Harrisonburg Has A Tremendous Over-Supply of Student Housing for JMU Students

 

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An early rendering of the intended Preston Lake community center

A variety of documents were filed at the Rockingham County Circuit Court on Wednesday, February 23, 2011 finalizing the Trustee Sale of Preston Lake subdivision. 

In Summary:  A trustee sale took place on February 3, 2011 on the steps of the Rockingham County Circuit Court, whereby Wells Fargo (as the only, and thus highest, bidder) contracted to buy back Preston Lake from its developer.  Now, the deeds have been recorded transferring the bulk of the subdivision to Wells Fargo and the common areas to the Homeowners Association.

The Value of 124+ Acres:  The consideration paid by Wells Fargo for the 124+ acres was $3,500,000, but the trustee's deed also indicates that the appraised value is/was $4,530,000.  Somewhat astonishingly, the two loans (notes) that were being foreclosed on appear to have been for a sum total of $20,500,000.

The New Owner of Preston Lake:  The grantee on the deed is listed as "REDUS VA HOUSING, LLC" -- an LLC registered in Deleware.  The grantee's address, however, is Wells Fargo Bank out of Jacksonville, Florida.

Value of the Common Areas:  Per the deed transferring the common areas to the Homeowners Association, the common areas have an assessed value of $323,700.



What Conveyed To The Homeowners Association:  The map above is based on an early engineering plan for Preston Lake.  I have deciphered (to the best of my ability) the deed, and recorded plats for Preston Lake to mark on the map (letters in circles) the areas that conveyed the the Homeowners Association.  Click on the map for a high resolution PDF, and scroll to the bottom of this post for the source files for the deed and plats.

Management of the Homeowners Association:  The Homeowners Association's mailing address is referenced in the deed as the same Jacksonville, Florida address for Wells Fargo.  Homeowners at Preston Lake have been informed that Wells Fargo will be hiring an association management company in the very near future to handle the business of the association. 

What's Next:  Now that the remaining land comprising Preston Lake is owned by Wells Fargo, my assumption is that:

• Wells Fargo will bring in an association management company to handle the association.
• Wells Fargo will market and attempt to sell the entire subdivision to a new developer.
• If the above is not successful, Wells Fargo may attempt to sell individual lots at Preston Lake.
  

Pertinent Documents:

• Recorded Trustee's Deed - 124+ Acres transferring to Wells Fargo
• Recorded Deed - Land transferring to Homeowners Association
• Partial Satisfaction - Liens against land transferring to HOA
  
• Amended and Restated Declaration for Preston Lake
  
• Recorded Section 1 Plat
  
• Recorded Section 2 Plat
• Recorded Section 3 Plat

Further Preston Lake reading:

• Jul 19, 2010:  Sales Updates at Preston Lake in Harrisonburg, VA
• Jan 19, 2011:  Preston Lake Headed To Foreclosure?
• Feb 3, 2011:  Preston Lake Foreclosure Auction Results In $3.5M Sale To Wells Fargo

 

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My most recent market report (excerpts below, full report here) shows a variety of mixed market indicators when examining market data through January 31, 2011:

• Home Sales Down (bad)
  
• Home Prices Down (bad)
• Contracts Up (good)
  
• Inventory Down (good)

Read on for insights into the current housing market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County....



Home sales in January 2011 (39 sales) were down compared to the 45 sales in January 2010 -- but up compared to the 37 sales in January 2009.  This is a relatively even start for 2011, and if the past three years are any indicator, we'll have around 50 home sales in February.



This graph shows a rolling 12 months of home sales -- and you can see that the annual pace of home sales has been declining for several years other than the temporary respite offered by the home buyer tax credit last year.  The last several months, however, seem to be offering some leveling out of this indicator.



Buyers were out in full force in January 2011 -- 62 properties went under contract.  This is an increase over January 2010 (59 contracts), an increase over January 2009 (43 contracts) and an increase over last month (40 contracts).  This could be a strong spring market.



Perhaps due to a small sample size, the median sales price continues to decline in January 2011.



We are currently seeing the lowest inventory levels that we have seen over the past two years.  This can help the market to stabilize, unless the market is flooded with listings in March and April.

Click the image above (or here) to read the full report.

If you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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The Preston Lake Trustee Sale took place today (February 3, 2011) at noon, and drew quite a crowd of Preston Lake homeowners, developers, attorneys, Realtors, and neighboring landowners.  Here's an overview of where things stand....

Local History in the Making:  It's not necessarily the good type of history, but this was the first major subdivision --- and hopefully the last --- to be foreclosed on in the Harrisonburg area.  Many other areas across the country have seen multiple large subdivisions be foreclosed on, but until today, Harrisonburg had been unscathed.  The timing of the development of this subdivision is likely what led us to today's events, as the development began just as the housing market began to slow dramatically.

Only One Registered Bidder:  Only one individual registered as a potential bidder at the sale (by showing his deposit check to the Trustee, and providing his name), though he did bid during the auction, likely because of the opening bids from Wells Fargo.

Only One Actual Bidder:  There was only one actual bidder....Wells Fargo.

Surprise Rowhouse Auctions:  In addition to the 120+ acres of land at Preston Lake that were auctioned off today, four rowhouses were also auctioned separately.  This was not specifically advertised -- if it had been, I think we would have seen some actual bidding take place.  Each of these rowhouses are at a different stage of completion, but each at least has the shell completed.  The opening bids from Wells Fargo were as follows, and these are the prices at which they are taking back the properties:

• Lot 9C -- $270,600
• Lot 10B - $39,960
• Lot 11C - $157,760
• Lot 12C - $79,080

A Hefty Price For 120+ Acres:  It wasn't too surprising that there were not any bidders for the 120+ acres of Preston Lake, as Wells Fargo's opening bid was $3,500,000. 

The Common Areas:  The attorney representing Wells Fargo also indicated that the common areas would be deeded to the Property Owners Association.  The Association will still exist, and owners will still make payments to it to support the maintenance of the common areas and other common amenities of the neighborhood.

What Happens Next:  In theory, within 30 days, Wells Fargo will close on their purchase of the four individual rowhouses, and the 120+ acres of Preston Lake.  The attorney representing Wells Fargo commented to me afterward that he thinks there is a 90% chance that the sale will proceed to closing and that Wells Fargo will be the new owner.  After Wells Fargo owns the property, he indicated that they would sell the four rowhouses individually, and seek to sell the remaining 120+ acres to a new developer.  It is unclear what price they will ask for the remainder of the subdivision (likely lower than $3.5M), and it is unclear what price they will eventually take for the remainder of the subdivision (likely lower than $3.5M).  Wells Fargo's attorney also indicated that while they will attempt to sell the entire undeveloped section of Preston Lake as a whole to one developer, it is also possible that they would sell the property as individual lots or sections of lots.  Wells Fargo has done this with other subdivisions around the country that they have foreclosed on, though it is not their goal.

Wells Fargo is interested in money:  This should come as no surprise, but Wells Fargo's goal in being the new owner of the undeveloped areas of Preston Lake are to try to recoup as much as possible of the money that they have invested in the subdivision.  They won't, thus, try to unload the property for development into a mobile home park -- they will be marketing it and working to sell it for its highest and best use.  This does not mean that the development plan won't or can't change -- but they will be trying to recoup as much money as possible, and thus will be trying to sell it to a developer who has the a positive (and profitable) vision for it.

Those Pesky Lawsuits:  The developer of Preston Lake (Richard Hine) had filed a lawsuit against Wachovia (now Wells Fargo) --- and Wachovia had responded with a countersuit.  Per the attorney representing Wells Fargo, both of those lawsuits will go away once the sale closes, and the property is taken back by Wells Fargo.

A Community United:  If anything, the turmoil and uncertainty over the future of Preston Lake seems to have drawn its residents closer together as a community.  Most of the owners were in attendance at the sale, and then went as a group to Cally's afterward to have lunch.  There seems to be solidarity and general optimism (as much as is possible) amongst most (or all) of the owners.  They still seem to thoroughly enjoy their homes, and each other, which is a positive sign for the future of the community.

Have Questions?  If you have questions about Preston Lake or the foreclosure proceedings, I'm happy to try to answer them (540-578-0102, scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com), or you can contact Peter Barrett of Kutak Rock, LLP, who is the attorney representing Wells Fargo.  You can reach Mr. Barrett at 804-343-5237 or peter.barrett@kutackrock.com.

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One of my clients forwarded me a great article from the Wall Street Journal that you might have interest in reading....  Real Estate: Finally a Good Investment?  (Smart Money / The Wall Street Journal)

The article has four premises for concluding that real estate might finally be a good investment, all of which seem reasonable to me:

1. "Everyone hates homes"  -  since nobody likes real estate right now, it means that those who are bold enough to buy will have great opportunities.
     
   
2. "Smart people are buying real estate" - John Paulson, Warren Buffett, and other highly respected people are advising the merits of buying.
     
   
3. "Real estate performs well during inflation" - housing performs well in times of inflation, and many predict that those times will be coming again soon.
      
   
4. "Demand may be coming back" - several national indicators suggest that housing supply trends are starting to return to more normal levels.
   

The main caveat that the author provides is that this all depends on jobs.  The good news for the Central Shenandoah Valley is that we have fared quite well over the last few years from an employment perspective.

Click here to take a quick read --- and let me know what you think. 
 

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Per a Trustee Sale advertised in today's Daily News Record (view ad), the bulk of the Preston Lake subdivision may be headed to foreclosure.  This doesn't necessarily mean that the foreclosure sale will take place, but this is a significant step in that direction.

Preston Lake is Harrisonburg and Rockingham County's first master planned community, intended to include nearly 500 townhomes and single family homes, a large section of retail stores with a main street appearance, and many amenities such as a community center, soccer fields, swimming pool, and more.


  The vision....


 Main Street renderings


 Amenities at Preston Lake

Now, however, all of those plans may be coming to an end, at least for now.  On February 3rd at 12:00 p.m., 124.693 acres of Preston Lake is scheduled to be auctioned at the Rockingham County Circuit Court.  Please note that an advertised trustee sale (all that has happened thus far) does not necessarily mean that the foreclosure process will take place. 

This wasn't the first sign of trouble for Preston Lake, as the developer of Preston Lake and its lender (Wachovia) have been in the midst of legal proceedings for almost a year now, as described in the Mar 2, 2010 article from the Daily News Record:


While it was happening quite slowly, residential construction at Preston Lake had been continuing even over the past year.  Since the first closing in 2008, there have been 37 sales at Preston Lake recorded in the HRAR MLS, ranging from $318k to $883k, with a median price of $421k.  Three of these sales took place as recently as the fourth quarter of 2010.

Today, only four properties are being marketed for sale at Preston Lake per the HRAR MLS -- three are resale properties, and one is being sold by the developer.  (view active listings at Preston Lake)

A few notes about the foreclosure sale:

• It appears that most (or all?) of the common areas (such as the Village Green) will not be sold at the foreclosure sale.
• It appears that the property being conveyed will still be bound by the covenants and restrictions already in place.  (view the HOA disclosure package as of October 2008)

What could happen from here?  These are my best guesses:

1. The foreclosure sale will not take place, construction and sales will continue, quite slowly.
2. The foreclosure sale will take place and the subdivision will be purchased by a new developer who will continue with the current vision, or adjust it and move forward with development, construction and sales.
3. The foreclosure sale will take place, but nobody will buy the subdivision, and thus the bank will become the owner.  They will then work to sell Preston Lake to a new developer through more traditional sales and marketing means.
4. Same as #3, but the bank will then try to sell the lots individually, instead of as an entire subdivision.

If you have questions about Preston Lake, feel free to call me at 540-578-0102 or e-mail me at scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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As we finish up the last day of 2010, I though I'd take a look back at some of the most frequently viewed posts here on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com from 2010....

1. So, You Finished Your Basement Without A Building Permit -- Now What?
2. The State Of The Massanutten Resort Real Estate Market
3. Sales Updates at Preston Lake in Harrisonburg, VA
4. What Percentage Of Under Contract Homes Actually Sell?
5. Urban Exchange Update: Harrisonburg Lives Downtown!
6. Do Harrisonburg and JMU Need More Student Housing?
7. Do You Think Harrisonburg's Student Housing Vacancy Rates Are High Now? You Haven't Seen Anything Yet!
8. Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors merges with Century 21 Real Estate Unlimited
   

If there is something you'd like to know about, learn about, or talk about in 2011, just let me know.  E-mail me (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) or call me (540-578-0102) anytime.

Happy New Year!
 

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Below you will find several highlights from my December 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report, available as a PDF by clicking here. 

Our local real estate market still has a ways to go before recovering, but there are some positive signs this month.



First, you'll note (above) that home sales increased in November 2010 as compared to the previous month (October 2010).  Sales in November were lower than in November 2009, but last November had the benefit of being the intended deadline for the home buyer tax credit -- thus lots of extra buyers closed in November.



Median sales prices and average sales prices both increased in November (10%, 8%).  This, however, is likely because the median and average sales prices were much lower than normal last November as a result of so many first time buyers closing (on properties with low purchase prices) during November.  Year to date figures still show a 3% year over year decline in prices.



More buyers committed to buy properties in November 2010 than we have seen in the past three Novembers!  Hopefully we'll see a strong December as well.



Click the image above (or here) to review the entire December 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.

If you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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Read on for several highlights of the November 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Or click here to view the PDF.



Despite early gains in 2010 (particularly in April and June) home sales have stagnated over the past several months.  July, August, September and October of 2010 have been the slowest such months during the past five years.  Despite these low sales figures, however, year-to-date sales are only 4% below last year's sales. 



Late 2009 through mid 2010 showed some promise.  After several years of declining home sales (pace, not values) it seemed that our local market had finally turned around.  Now looking back, that increase in sales pace may have been largely related to the home buyer tax credit, as the pace of sales is now on the decline yet again.  What surprises lie in store for us in 2011?



As demand falls, prices should fall --- isn't that what I learned back in my economics class at JMU?  Not so in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham housing market!?!  Fewer and fewer buyers have been present in the market over the past six years (demand fell) but prices have not fallen in the way that that shift in demand would suggest.  Calling all economists....how can we explain this?



Click the image above (or here) to review the entire November 2010 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report, complete with an all new Executive Summary this month.

If you have questions about this report, or if I can be of assistance with real estate that you own, or that you'd like to own, please be in touch.  You can reach me most easily at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.
 

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If you haven't stopped by Founders Way yet to see these newly finished condominiums, you might want to considering doing so this coming weekend during the SVBA Parade of Homes.  Founders Way won several awards including Realtors Choice, Best Interior, Best Exterior and Best Overall.

But let's give Founders Way some context.... There are lots of townhouses for sale in Harrisonburg priced around $160k, with 1300-1400 square feet.  The condos at Founders Way are similar ($160k, 1300-1400 SF) but they have some significant differences.

• The 1,301 sf in a Founders Way condo are all on one level, so you don't have stairs eating into the square footage, and you have much larger open spaces.
• The master suite in condos at Founders Way is fantastic --- with two walk-in closets, and a large bathroom!
• You'll also enjoy features such as 9' ceilings, an extremely open floor plan with columns, a covered patio or deck, an actual laundry room, hardwood laminate flooring, and more.

Now to pricing ---

• Second level condos at Founders Way (hint -- no steps -- easy access for those with limited mobility) are priced from $163k to $169k. 
  
• First level condos at Founders Way are priced at only $143k-$149k! 
  
• The loft units (3rd floor) feature a total of 1,703 SF, three bedrooms and three bathrooms, for $193k - $199k.

Below is a brief video taking you through the condos.  (here's the video link)



For more information, visit FoundersWay.com or call me at 540-578-0102 to schedule a time to look at this very new and very exciting product in our market.

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Below are several highlights from the October 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Read on, or click here to download a PDF of the entire report.



As you'll note above, there were very few home sales in September 2010.  In fact, there were very few home sales in in July, August and September!  That was, however, after very high home sales in April and June.  Thus, it would seem that the home buyer tax credit certainly rearranged the timing of 2010 home sales, regardless of whether it brought new buyers into the market nor not.  The question now, of course, is how many of the October, November and December closings were borrowed by the first half of 2010.



After multiple years of a declining sales pace, the graph above shows that we were finally seeing a reversal for the first six months of this year.  However, the past three months of slow sales has turned us back around into a declining market again.  The fourth quarter of 2010 will be quite indicative as to a reasonable 2011 forecast.



Please note, above, the silver lining.  Despite a lower than normal number of closings in September 2010 -- the buyers were out yet again, contracting to buy real estate.  In fact, with 74 properties going under contract, buyers in our market outpaced the past two Septembers.  This should be a good indicator for the coming months.



Above you'll see a decade-long comparison of two imprecise measures.  The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (sans Realtor), and some new home sales. The yellow bars show the number of Trustee Deeds recorded during each of the past 10+ years. Some of these foreclosed properties (203 in 2010) then show up in the blue bar when they are listed and then sold as bank owned properties. It would seem that foreclosures have increased nearly four-fold over the past ten years, and now make up somewhere between 15% and 26% of all home sales.



My full market report (click above -- or here -- for a 20 page PDF) includes LOTS more analysis to help you make informed real estate decisions.  Read through it and let me know if you have any questions, or if any additional information would be helpful to you.

You can contact me (nearly) anytime at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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As reported by NPR, Columbia University recently conducted a study where they asked people about the most effective ways were to save energy --- and as a general public, we're well off the mark!  From NPR....

HILL: Yeah, pretty much. Basically researchers asked people what one thing they could do that would be the most effective thing to save energy and people said turning off the lights.

CHIOTAKIS: Well that makes sense, what's wrong with that?

HILL: Well, turning off the lights and other curtailment activities, as researchers like to call them, may not save as much energy as we think. A better choice might be making efficiency improvements, like installing energy-efficient light bulbs or driving non-gas guzzlers.

CHIOTAKIS: So what are the things, Adriene, we do that we think save more energy than they actually save?

HILL: Well, so there's turning off the lights. There's driving slower on the highway -- maybe stepping it down to 55, people think that saves more energy than it actually does. Unplugging your phone charger -- again, these things do save energy, but not as much as people guess.

CHIOTAKIS: And what do we under-rate? What saves more than most people think they save?

HILL: Driving cars that get better mileage, using room air conditioners instead of central air, and running more efficient appliances.

BUT WAIT!  THERE'S GOOD NEWS . . .



This Saturday (September 25) from 9am to 4pm you can learn all about saving energy, and living sustainably at Harrisonburg's First Annual Green Expo. 

Don't waste the next few months doing web searches and making phone calls to try to learn about improvements you could make to your home, or technologies or products you could use in a new home.  This Saturday you can spend an hour or two going from booth to booth speaking directly to the experts!  Take a look at the long list of companies that will be present!

Plus, you can learn a lot about these four notable speakers!

1. Dave and Lee O'Neill - Owners of Radical Roots Farm - speaking about Farming sustainable foods
2. Andre Viette - Owner - Viette Nurseries - speaking about Eco-Friendly Gardening
3. Charles Bowles - Building Scientist for Earth Craft Virginia - speaking about building and remodeling homes to be efficient
   
4. Ralph Grove - Sierra Club Shenandoah Group - speaking about The Sierra Club history and current priorities

So, come one, come all --- this Saturday over at Eastern Mennonite University --- to Harrisonburg's First Annual Green Expo!

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Have any questions? Contact Scott Rogers at 540-578-0102 or scott@funkhousergroup.com

Retirement doesn't come at age 55 for everyone -- and an increasing number of people are continuing to work past that age given the current economy and financial markets.  Even after retirement, many people are looking for second careers, and U.S. News & Word Report recently (yesterday) ranked Harrisonburg as one of the ten best places to launch your second career.  Click here to read the article.

Here's what they have to say about our area....


A few observations....

1. I suppose it is true that Centra is a major regional employer, though  RMH / Sentara seem to be more specifically pertinent to the immediate Harrisonburg and surrounding area.
2. It is fascinating that they (writers at US News & World Report) are picking up on the fact that downtown Harrisonburg and the Harrisonburg Farmers' Market have gained momentum over the past several years.
   

If you're over 55, and relocating to the Shenandoah Valley, you'll want to check out Heritage Estates and The Village at Meadow Pointe, two growing active adult communities in Harrisonburg.
 

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Last year, 816 homes sold in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  Per my most recent market report, it seems probably that we'll be at the same pace in home sales for 2010.  But follow me for a minute....

• If 816 homes sell in a year, that's roughly 16 per week.
• Last week, 22 homes went under contract!
• If that pace were to continue, homes would be selling at pace of 1,144 per year!

Now, this is probably just a fluke -- one super week amidst quite a few not as super weeks -- but it is exciting to see lots of buyers stepping up to the contract-signing table right now. 

One last exciting statistic for your Monday --- last September, only 52 homes went under contract in the entire month.  In the first half (less than half, really) of this September, 36 homes have already gone under contract!

Thanks Kemper, for pointing out last week's astounding buying pace!

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Below are several highlights from the September 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report.  Read on, or click here to download a PDF of the entire report.

Home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County... Are they up? Down? Stable? 



In fact, they are up, down AND stable!  A mix of indicators this month:

• Home sales in August 2010 increased compared to July 2010.
• Home sales in August 2010 decreased compared to August 2009.
• Though not shown above, 2010 YTD home sales are nearly equivalent with 2009 YTD home sales.

The third is perhaps the most important indicator of the trend of our local housing market.  After four straight years of declines in the number of home sales in our market (2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2009) this year still appears to be the year when we'll see that decline in home sales finally cease and possibly reverse itself.  January 2009 through August 2009 showed 531 home sales, while January 2010 through August 2010 showed 530 home sales.



Another good indicator, as shown above, is that the local housing inventory has peaked --- at least for now.  A few months ago the number of homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County broke 1,000 for the first time -- but it has now started to decline again, as is typical for this season of the year.



Lot sales (less than an acre) have been very, very slow over the past several years, falling from a peak in 2004 of 408 lot sales to only 58 lot sales last year.  As shown above, lot sales might actually rebound this year!

There is even more in the 19-page September 2010 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report. Download the entire report by clicking on the image below.



Thanks for reading, and if you have any questions, or if I can assist you with buying or selling real estate in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County, please contact me at 540-578-0102 or scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com.

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You may haven noticed the depressing news in the Daily News Record today -- on the front page -- home sales dropped 27% in July! 

But wait -- those are national numbers, and may not have much to do with what's going on in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. 

The chart to the right is from the DNR, showing the 27% decline in July.  The chart below shows essentially the same data for Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  The only difference is that the national figures only include existing home sales (it excludes new homes) and the local numbers are both new and existing homes.

Here is the local data:



Despite a 27% decline nationally, local home sales only showed a 5% annualized decline!

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It's always good to get a different take on the data and situation in our market.  Feel free to share your own comments on the state of our market in the comment section below.



[From the Daily News Record, July 16, 2010]

Housing Market Enjoys Boomlet
But Area's Sales Surge Likely To Be Short-Lived

By Doug Manners

HARRISONBURG  - Buoyed by the expected expiration of federal tax credits, home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County climbed in June to the highest monthly total in nearly three years. However, sales are likely to drop during the second half of the year, due in part to the expiration of the tax credit program.

According to a report released by Scott Rogers, associate broker at Coldwell Banker Funkhouser Realtors, 116 homes were sold last month, the most since August 2007, when 138 homes sold. It also marks a 35 percent increase over sales from June 2009.

To be eligible for the credits - up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers and $6,500 for existing homeowners - buyers originally had until June 30 to close sales, but Congress extended the deadline to Sept. 30. Buyers still must have entered into a binding contract by April 30 to qualify.

‘Buffer' Needed

Local sales in 2010 are 16 percent higher than those from the first six months of last year, and Rogers said he believes that the area will reverse a four-year downturn in annual home sales.

"I think the 16 percent is enough of a buffer" to beat last year's numbers, Rogers said.

That buffer is key because sales are now expected to fall, with most tax-credit seekers having already made their home purchases (Congress didn't approve the extension until late June).

Furthermore, Rogers wrote in his report, "for most of the past four years, there is a steady decline in sales between June and December, so we will likewise probably see a decline month after month."

Contracts Plummet

In April, 121 properties went under contract, the most since March 2007. After the April 30 deadline expired, that number dropped to 84 in May and plummeted to 54 in June.

"This June's buyer commitment rate is notably lower than any of the past three Junes," Rogers wrote, "which is not a good indicator for July and August sales figures."

Rogers said it's too soon to say conclusively whether the tax credits provided a real boost to the housing market or simply shifted sales toward the first half of the year.

"Perhaps it's a wash other than the timing," Rogers said, "except that timing might have helped create some momentum in getting people feeling more positive and hopeful about the economy."

Values Continue To Drop

Despite the increased market activity, home values continue to decline, according to Rogers' report. The average median sales price is $186,450, down 8 percent from a year earlier. Rogers said median prices are not likely to start increasing until the year-over-year sales pace rises.

The average time a home stays on the market is holding steady at about six months.

Contact Doug Manners at 574-6293 or dmanners@dnronline.com

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