• 2014 = 2% increase over 2013
• 2015 = 3% increase over 2014
• 2016 = 16% increase over 2015

Stay tuned for my full market report in the next week or so, as well as predictions for the 2017 housing market.

Oh, and HAPPY NEW YEAR!

• The buyer of a $190K home would be paying $65 more per month.
   
  
• The buyer of a $250K home would be paying $86 more per month.
   
  
• The buyer of a $350K home would be paying $119 more per month.

• If you're about to buy a home, you'll be paying more per month than if you had purchased before the election.  Hindsight is 20/20.
   
• You will still be locking in a ridiculously low (4.25% more or less) mortgage interest rate.
   
• It seems that mortgage interest rates will likely continue to (hopefully slowly) rise over the next year, so buying sooner rather than later may serve you well.

As always -- for actual payment scenarios, you'll need to consult a mortgage lender.  Shoot me an email (scott@HarrisonburgHousingToday.com) and I can make some recommendations. 

• Home sales increased 40.51% in November to 111 sales (compared to 79 last year)
   
  
• The year-to-date pace of home sales is up 16.41%, to 1,213 home sales, as compared to only 1,042 at this time last year.
   
  
• Median sales prices continue to rise, showing a 3.23% increase thus far in 2016 to $192,000 -- as compared to $186,000 last year.
   
• Homes are selling 7.27% more quickly this year with a median of 51 days on the market as compared to 55 days last year.
  

Now, let's contextualize November visually....

And -- guess what -- home sales are not likely to slow down much in December 2016, based on the 93 contracts signed during November 2016 -- which marks a 33% increase over the 70 contracts signed in November 2015. 

OK, there is plenty more to explore, such as....

• November 2016 home sales as compared to the past 10 months of November.
   
• When was the last time we saw 1300+ home sales in a year?
   
• After three years of stagnation, why have single family home sales started increasing again.
   
• Why have sales of attached properties slowed down?
   
• New home sales are increasing, but is it happening quickly enough?
   
• How are home sales distributed between price ranges now as compared to in recent years?
   
• Have all price ranges seen equivalent changes in inventory levels?
   
• How will increasing mortgage interest rates affect the market?
  

But -- I'll let you read all about those tidbits via my full online market report, or by downloading the PDF, or by clicking here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email.

And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later!  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell a home....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

• Home sales declined 10% in October 2016 to 94 sales -- as compared to last October when there were 105 home sales.
   
• Year-to-date home sales are still up 14% in 2016 (with 1,099 sales) as compared to the first ten months of 2015 when there were only 963 home sales.
   
• Median sales prices have risen 3.23% from a year ago from $186K to $192K.
   
• Homes are selling 9% faster, at a median days on market of 52 days, as compared to 57 days last year.

OK -- as noted above, the 94 homes sales seen in October 2016 mark a 10% decline as compared to the 105 home sales in October 2015, and that was even lower than the 112 home sales seen in October 2014.  But before you get overly depressed about a slower October, remember....

• There were 158 home sales in August 2016 -- a 25% improvement over August 2015.
   
• There were 128 home sales in September 2016 -- a 32% improvement over September 2015.

So, it seems that the timing of home sales during the year can vary significantly from year to year.  Looking at the past three months together can help put things in perspective in some ways....

• There were 328 home sales between August and October of 2015.
   
• There were 380 home sales between August and October of 2016.

There, not so bad now, right?  That's a 16% improvement over last year when looking at these three months -- and as noted above, when looking at January through October, the pace of home sales in 2016 is 14% higher than it was last year.

OK, on to some other items....

The median value of single family (detached) homes is often the best indicator of trends in home values in a local housing market.  As shown above, we have been seeing those values increase over the past five years, most notably over the past two years. 

Also of note, as shown above, after hovering between 810 and 820 home sales per year for the past three years, it seems we are finally poised to break through that invisible barrier this year, as we are likely to see at least 900 and perhaps 950 single family home sales.

If my consoling notes above about why slower October home sales weren't so bad didn't help, then perhaps the graph above will help.  Slower home sales in October 2016 does not mean that the fast and furious pace of 2016 home sales has come to an end.  As shown above, buyers (and sellers) signed 109 home sales in October 2016 -- a 33% increase over the 82 contracts signed last October.  So -- we might be in for another month of stronger sales in November.

If you are trying to buy a home right now, it is quite possible that you are frustrated by not having many options to choose from.  The graph above might explain why you are having this experience.  Inventory levels continue to fall -- to where we now only have 480 homes on the market!?!?!  This is as compared to a year ago when there were 640 homes on the market at this time -- showing a 25% year-over-year decline.  This lack of inventory is slowly starting to tip the market in the favor of sellers, though not in all price ranges and not in all locations.

OK, there is plenty more to say, such as....

• Median price per square foot of single family homes has increased from $108 to $113 over the past year.
   
• The median list price to sales price ratio has increased from 97% to 98% over the past year.
   
• Sales of newly built homes are much higher (73 thus far) this year than last year (total of 54).
   
• 54% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days of being listed for sale.
   
• There has been a 41% year-over-year increase in the sale of $300K - $400K homes.
   
• There are only three months of supply of homes under $200K currently on the market.

But -- I'll let you read all about those tidbits via my full online market report, or by downloading the PDF, or by clicking here to sign up to receive my real estate blog by email.

And -- as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, start learning about our local housing market sooner rather than later!  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell a home....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

1. Home sales JUMPED UPWARD in September 2016 to 123 sales -- a 26.8% increase over last September when there were only 97 home sales!
    
2. We have now seen 998 home sales thus far in 2016 -- a 16.32% increase over the 858 home sales seen during the same timeframe last year.
    
3. The median sales price continues to increase -- and has now risen to $192,000 for 2016-YTD.  This is a 3.23% increase as compared to during the same timeframe in 2015.
    
4. Homes are selling 7.27% faster (median of 51 days on market) in 2016 as compared to in 2015 (median of 55 days).

Now, let's contextualize those strong September sales....

Well, there is much more to know, learn, read....but I'll pause here for now,  and I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose.  You can read my entire market report online....

And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

1. Home sales jumped up 22.22% in August as compared to last year -- for a record of 154 home sales in August 2016.  Read on for more context as to these August sales.
    
2. Thus far in 2016 there have been 14.45% more home sales than last year during the same timeframe.  This year's real estate market is moving considerably more quickly than last year's market.
    
   
3. Despite an active market, prices are only slowly rising, with a 1.5% year-to-date increase in the median sales price to $190,000.
    
4. Homes are selling more quickly than last year, with the current YTD median days on market of 51 days -- which marks a 12% decline in the median days on market as compared to 2015.

As promised, a bit more context.  The 154 home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County during August 2016 marked the HIGHEST number of home sales seen anytime in the previous 10 years.  We'd have to stretch back 121 months to August 2006 to find the next highest month of home sales, when we saw 156 home sales.

But wait, there's more.  If you thought August home sales was the end of a series of strong months, you might be wrong.  Take a look at the contract data (above) and you'll note that there were a whopping 130 contracts signed in August -- a 20% increase over last August.  As such, we should expect to see strong September/October sales as well.  Also of note, over the past six months we have seen an average of 135 contracts signed per months, as compared to only 116 per month a year prior.

And the inventory levels keep on dropping.  Buyers have fewer and fewer choices these days with current inventory levels hovering around 560 homes for sale in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.  This results in the best listings (price, condition, marketing) being sold quickly.

There is much more to know, learn, read....

I'll pause here for now,  but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose.  You can read my entire market report online....

And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

• Opened in 1987 as Coors Brewing
• 450 employees (as of 2015)
• Brew up to 8 million barrels of beer a year (as of 2015)
• Beers brewed: Coors Light, Blue Moon Belgian White, Killian's Irish Red, Keystone, Keystone Light
• A $300 million build-out in 2007 made this one of the most modern large-scale breweries in North America

1. Home sales were up 1.85% in July as compared to last year.
    
2. Year-to-date home sales continue to be quite strong, showing a 12.28% improvement over last year with 713 sales thus far in 2016.
    
3. The year-to-date median sales price has risen 1.86% over the past year -- from $188,500 up to $192,000.
    
4. Homes are selling 11.86% faster thus far in 2016 as compared to during the same timeframe last year.

July could be seen as a disappointment in some ways.  We didn't see sky high home sales, towering over all previous months of July.  We only saw a tiny 1.85% increase in sales as compared to July 2015.  But wait -- before we become too glum about the 110 home sales in July, let's not forget the record breaking months of sales that we saw in May and June!

Just for fun, let's look at May through July home sales for the past few years....

• May - July 2013 = 322 home sales
• May - July 2014 = 343 home sales
• May - July 2015 = 352 home sales
• May - July 2016 = 392 home sales !!!!

So, yes, I think we can be satisfied with the 110 home sales we saw in July 2016 given the slightly larger context.

The graph above is somewhat complicated, but very important as to an understanding of our local housing market.  The green "SELLERS" trajectory is showing the number of homeowners trying to sell their homes.  The blue "BUYERS" trajectory shows the number of buyers closing on the purchase of homes in a six month period.  This graph, therefor, is a good indication of overall market balance in our local housing market, as many housing market analysts consider a six month supply of homes for sale to be a sign of a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers.

As shown above, after many years, we finally saw these trajectories cross last month.  That is to say that there are now more buyers buying in a six month period than there are sellers selling.  As such, if we've been approaching a balanced market for the past year, it is now definitely "in balance" -- even if that varies some from price range to price range.

Taking a look at buyer activity in the form of signed contracts, we see that July was another relatively strong month with 119 contracts signed -- as compared to 118 last July.  Put in a slightly larger context, we have seen an average of 136 contracts per month over the past five months -- as compared to an average of only 117 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015.

One of the ways that we have achieved the market balance illustrated above is by a reduction in the number of homes for sale.  As the graph above indicates, we have seen a 15% decline in inventory levels over the past year.  Thus, buyers a year ago had 644 homes to choose from -- and today can only choose from 549 properties.

OK, let's cut off my ramblings about our local market there for now.  There is a lot more more in my full real estate market report, but I'll let you explore that and read further on your own if you so choose.  I'll continue to delve into the latest trends on HarrisonburgHousingToday.com over the next few days, but if you just can't wait, feel free to read the entire report online....

And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

1. June home sales rose 7.46% to 144 home sales.
    
2. Year-to-date home sales are up 13.47% as compared to last year!
    
   
3. Prices are relatively flat, with only a 0.79% year-over-year improvement.
    
4. Homes are selling 14.52% more quickly this year as compared to last year.
    
   

OK -- BIG NEWS HERE -- June 2016 home sales were "off the charts" as they say -- the highest month of monthly home sales we have seen in a LONG TIME!  Actually, looking back further that this chart -- the last time we had more than 144 home sales was back in June 2007 -- at the peak of the market boom.
 

AND -- MORE BIG NEWS -- It happened! It really happened! Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. And finally, in June, these two trajectories have crossed! There are more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale!

Finally, what should we expect as far as sales for the next few months?  Based on recent contract activity, I am thinking we'll see another strong month of sales during July.  To put this year in perspective, we have seen an average of 140 contracts per month over the past four months -- as compared to an average of only 117 contracts per month during the same timeframe in 2015.

There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report.  I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online....

And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

• Home sales increased 16% in May 2016 to 128 home sales.
   
• YTD home sales have increased 15% to 450 home sales.
   
• Year-to-date median sales prices are steady at $189,000.
   
• Homes are selling 16% faster this year as compared to last year.

As shown above, there have been several months in particular -- January, March, May -- that have catapulted us to our current 15% improvement in home sales this year as compared to last year.

We have seen buyers signing contracts in record numbers over the past three months -- which bodes well for strong sales in June as well as (likely) July.

Buyers are buying faster than sellers are ready to sell.  Inventory levels, as shown above, have declined 12% over the past year.  Buyers are seeing fewer and fewer choices of homes to purchase.

Finally, the market graph we've all been waiting for -- as shown above, we are finally (!) approaching a perfect balance between buyers and sellers in our local market -- with almost exactly six months of supply available.  This is a result of a slowly increasing pace of buying activity over the past few years -- and a slowly declining inventory level during the same timeframe.

BUT WAIT -- remember -- all real estate is local, and sometimes that means down to the city, town or even neighborhood.  If you are getting ready to sell your home, we should start by looking at these overall trends -- but then we'll need to dive much deeper into the analysis of your price range, neighborhood. property type, etc.

There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report.  I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online....

And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com

Unemployment in the Harrisonburg metropolitan area hit an eight year low in April, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But part of the data supporting the jobless rate has local economic development directors scratching their heads.

Rockingham County was credited with a 2.9 percent unemployment rate in April, well below the 3.8 percent rate recorded in March and the previous April. It marked the first time the rate has been below 3 percent since April 2008.

The drop in the city was greater. The jobless rate was 3.6 percent in April, 1.2 percentage points lower than March and 1.1 percentage point below the April 2015 rate. It, too, was Harrisonburg's lowest rate since April 2008.

Combined, 3.2 percent of people looking for work in the metro area, which includes the city and county, couldn't find it in April. That was well below March's unemployment rate of 4.2 percent and the 4.1 percent rate posted in April 2015.

According to the BLS, only 852 city resident and 1,153 county residents who were seeking work were without jobs, with 166 more Harrisonburg residents and 661 Rockingham residents working in April when compared to March.

• April 2016 home sales (100) showed a 7.53% improvement over April 2015.
   
  
• Year-to-date home sales (320) showed a 13.48% improvement over 2015.
   
• The Year-to-date median sales price has increased 3.96% to $190,500.
   
• The time it takes to sell a home (median days on market) has declined by 9.88% over the past year to 73 days.

Let's dig into a few details....

Wow! This graph shows very clearly (look at the last two bars on the right) how HOT of a Spring real estate market we are experiencing this year. The pace of contracts in March was a new record for March -- and in April, buyers have done it again. As far back as I have on record (2007) there has never been a month of April when this many (158) contracts have been signed in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.

Single family homes are often the best indicator of overall trends in a local housing market.  As shown above, sales of single family homes are quite stable -- and the median price has been on the rise for several years now.  It seems likely that we will see another increase in the median sales price of single family homes in 2016.

Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The "BUYERS" trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The "SELLERS" trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market (active listings) at any given time. Over the past four years we have been seeing a steady increase in buyers in the market and a decline in sellers in the market.

In Summary....

BUYERS -- The record number of contracts (March and April) indicates that you have competition when it comes to great houses that are well prepared and well priced.  Get your ducks in a row -- talk to a lender, start researching the market -- so that you are ready to make an offer quickly when the house of your dreams comes on the market.

SELLERS -- Just because many homes are selling quickly doesn't mean ALL homes are selling quickly.  Take the time to understand YOUR segment of the market -- as it pertains to property type, price range, location, etc.  Know what to expect of buyers in your corner of the market, and prepare your home (price, condition, marketing) to be well received by those buyers.

More and Much, Much More....

There is more, oh so much more, in my full real estate market report.  I have even made it very easily accessible for you to read online....



And as is always my encouragement -- if you will be buying or selling a home in the near future, become a student of the housing market!  Learn what has been happening recently, what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next.  Being informed will allow you to make better real estate decisions.

Finally, here are two handy references to prepare yourself to buy or sell....

• BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com


• SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com