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How Much Growth Are We Seeing In Harrisonburg And Rockingham County? |
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 Some localities in Virginia, such as Loudoun County, are growing quite quickly. Loudon County is tops on the list for population growth over the past 12 years as shown above. The average annual growth rate shown above is calculated by comparing 2010 census data with 2022 population estimates, all from the Weldon Cooper Center. What do we learn from the data table above? [1] The population of City of Harrisonburg has grown an average of 1.09% per year over the past 12 years. [2] The population of Rockingham County has grown an average of 0.82% per year over the past 12 years. [3] Our growth rate (and our population) are quite a bit lower than Loudoun County, which is tops on the list above. The population of Loudoun County has grown by an average of 2.72% per year over the past 12 years and is now estimated to be 431,006. [4] The City + County population is currently around 139,849. [5] If the City maintains the current 1.09% growth rate, it will grow from 55,700 to about 62,069 over the next decade. [6] If the County maintains the current 0.82% growth rate, it will grow from 84,149 to about 91,289 over the next decade. [7] Combining the City and County numbers above, current trends point to our area's population growing from 139,849 to 153,358 over the next decade. [8] Put differently, this potential growth over the next decade (139,849 to 153,358) equates to about 1,351 new people in the City or County each year. All of that (above) relates to how much we have been growing in the recent past -- and how much we are likely to grow in the near future. But as to if we should be growing, and how much we should be growing, that is a very different question with plenty of potential opinions and perspectives depending on who you ask. | |
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Proportional Senior Population Increasing in County, Decreasing in City |
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  The two maps above were generated here based on changes between 2000 and 2014 in the senior population -- those age 65 or greater. A few observations and thoughts....
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Does New College Student Housing Increase the Demands on Local Elementary Schools? |
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 Traditional logic would say no -- the construction of new college student housing in Harrisonburg won't increase the load on elementary schools, as most college students do not have elementary school aged children.... Going a step further, I would guess that some local government staff and elected officials MIGHT (?) use this traditional logic when thinking about whether to approve rezonings, or other approvals, for new student housing to be built in the Harrisonburg area. But wait - what if the following sequence happens (thanks Deb, with some revisions)....
I think we have seen this happen over the past 20 years in Harrisonburg, in cycles, as large quantities of student housing is built in waves. And think about it, from the other direction, for a moment -- we all know that the local elementary school population is growing -- but why, and where? It's not as if local developers and builders are out building an extraordinary number of townhomes or starter homes for young families, causing an influx of new elementary school students. So -- if the elementary school population is rising, and it's not because of an increase in the stock of owner occupied real estate in Harrisonburg, then.... 1. Perhaps this elementary (or K-12, really) school enrollment growth is, contrary to what we'd otherwise believe, a direct result of an increase in college student housing. 2. Perhaps we need to think about the fiscal impact of educating more elementary (and then middle and high) school students when we think about approving yet another student housing complex. 3. Perhaps, if building new student housing when we might not really need it, leads to increased demands on our local K-12 schools, then maybe we need to pay more attention to whether that student housing is needed. Just some thoughts to ponder as we think about and plan for the future here in the City of Harrisonburg -- and Rockingham County. | |
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Harrisonburg in the middle of the pack for Virginia Metro Areas |
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 view a larger version of this image If we take NoVa (2.9M), Virginia Beach (1.7M) and Richmond (1.3M) out of the mix, we're left with the eight MSA's listed above. You'll note that Harrisonburg / Rockingham County have an estimated population of 134K, compared to Staunton (next smaller at 121K) and Blacksburg (next larger at 183K). | |
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Harrisonburg Population Up 11% Over Six Years |
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 As shown above, the population of the City of Harrisonburg has increased by 11% over the past six years to it's current (estimated) level of 54,224. A few other fast facts from today's Daily News Record article....
Read the full Daily News Record article for much more context and insightful commentary. | |
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Are home sales increasing (too?) quickly, or just catching up? |
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 Some folks would look at home sales over the past seven years (shown above) and comment that home sales are increasing at a very fast pace -- showing a 52% increase since 2010 -- or around 9% per year. Of note -- this is not even including December 2016 home sales, so the rate of increase would be even a bit higher.  Others would look at home sales over the past 16 years (shown above) and comment that home sales have only had a small net increase over time -- and that the increases we have seen over the past seven years have been catching us back up to a normal amount of buyers buying in any given year. I tend to fall into the second group. I believe that a "normal" (or "typical"?) number of buyers were buying in 2001/2002 -- and that we started to see the housing boom (loose lending standards, irrational buying craze) starting in 2003. If that is the case, then we have barely seen a net increase between 2001/2002 and 2016. If we round this year (2016) up to 1300 home sales (to include December), and we average 2001/2002 to come up with 1112 home sales, then we have seen a 17% increase in sales over the past 14 years -- or an average of a 1.2% increase per year. Then, let's put it in the context of population growth.... 2001 Population Estimates per the Weldon Cooper Center....
2015 Population Estimates per the Weldon Cooper Center....
As shown above, we've seen a 20.7% increase in population in this 14 years timespan, or an average of 1.5% per year. So, in a 14 year timespan, we've seen a 1.5% average annual increase in population as well as a 1.2% average annual increase in home sales. That seems to be a reasonable growth in home sales -- perhaps even with some further upside potential for further increases. As such, if we do see 1300 home sales this year, I think we are likely to see at least the same number next year. | |
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Are home sales trends catching up with population growth? |
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 click here for a larger image The Weldon Cooper Center 2015 Population Estimates show that Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2015 Population Estimates: Harrisonburg: 53,875 Rockingham County: 79,134 Combined City/County: 133,009 (up 1% from 131,565 last year) If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that.... More people than usual bought between 2001 and 2007. (housing boom) Fewer people than usual bought between 2009 and 2012. (housing bust, and then recovery) In 2013/2014 we may have finally returned to a "normal" portion of the local population to be buying in a given year. Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,100. | |
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How does the Harrisonburg area population compare to other Cities in Virginia? |
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 If we take NoVa (2.9M), Virginia Beach (1.7M) and Richmond (1.2M) out of the mix, we're left with the eight MSA's listed above. You'll note that Harrisonburg and Rockingham County have an estimated population of 133K, compared to Staunton (next smaller at 121K) and Blacksburg (next larger at 183K). Click here for a larger version of the graph above. Of note -- this graph does not include:
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Home Sales Back In Line With Population? |
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 The Weldon Cooper Center just released their 2014 Population Estimates and Harrisonburg and Rockingham County are growing, as usual. 2014 Population Estimates:
If we take 2000 home sales as a baseline portion of the population to be buying in any given year, and then we project forward based on actual population growth, we can conclude that....
Based on the data presented above, I believe the new "normal" number of people to be buying per year may be around 1,050 - 1,100 home sales. Read today's Daily News Record article for more commentary on these new population estimates. | |
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Scott Rogers
Funkhouser Real
Estate Group
540-578-0102
scott@funkhousergroup.com
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Commonwealth of Virginia
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